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Syrian Government Announces Truce Backed by Russia and Turkey Syrian Government Announces Truce Backed by Russia and Turkey
(about 1 hour later)
BEIRUT, Lebanon — The Syrian government and its most important ally, Russia, announced on Thursday a cease-fire agreement with Syrian rebels and with Turkey — a potential turning point in a civil war that has lasted nearly six years and claimed hundreds of thousands of lives. BEIRUT, Lebanon — A cease-fire agreement between Syria’s government and weakened rebel forces that have been trying to topple it is scheduled to start on Friday, a potential turning point in a nearly six-year conflict that has claimed hundreds of thousands of lives and shredded every hope of resolution.
It remained to be seen if the agreement would take effect or hold, and President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia twice called it “fragile.” Previous attempts to quell the fighting, brokered under the auspices of the United Nations, have failed. The Syrian government’s strongest ally, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, announced the deal on Thursday — itself a sign of how Moscow has become the dominant force in the war even as it pledged to scale back the large-scale intervention it began in Syria last year.
But the rebels’ loss of their stronghold in eastern Aleppo this month was a major blow to their movement to oust President Bashar al-Assad, leaving them without footholds in Syria’s largest cities. That may have prodded them toward a compromise and given Russia a chance to consolidate Mr. Assad’s control through diplomacy. Many past efforts to quell the fighting, brokered under the auspices of the United Nations, have failed, and Mr. Putin himself pronounced the deal “fragile.” But the rebels’ loss of their stronghold in eastern Aleppo this month was a major blow to their movement to oust President Bashar al-Assad, leaving them without footholds in Syria’s largest cities. That may have prodded them toward a compromise and given Russia a chance to take the political initiative.
The agreement was negotiated by officials from Russia, Iran and Turkey with Mr. Assad’s government and rebel representatives. Before the end of January, as part of the deal, the factions will meet for talks in Astana, the capital of Kazakhstan — a setting that could hardly be farther from Washington or New York.
Mr. Putin later spoke by telephone with Mr. Assad, who “expressed willingness to comply” with the accords, according to the Kremlin’s website. They agreed that the negotiations in Astana would be an important step toward resolving the crisis, it said.
The Obama administration, which has resisted greater involvement in what it sees as a largely intractable conflict, welcomed the news. “Any effort that stops the violence, saves lives, and creates the conditions for renewed and productive political negotiations would be welcome,” said the State Department’s deputy spokesman, Mark C. Toner, reiterating its view that “there is no military solution to this nearly six-year crisis.”
If the agreement holds, it could solidify Mr. Assad’s grip on the country’s western ridge and lead to a joint effort by Russia and the United States against Islamic State militants. But that is a big if, given the number of parties involved, their competing interests and the scope of the fighting.If the agreement holds, it could solidify Mr. Assad’s grip on the country’s western ridge and lead to a joint effort by Russia and the United States against Islamic State militants. But that is a big if, given the number of parties involved, their competing interests and the scope of the fighting.
It was not even clear which rebel groups were party to the agreement. Russia provided a list of seven, while a representative of one rebel faction that took part in the talks identified seven with slightly different names. (Five of the groups on the Russian list have received covert military support from the United States.) Joshua M. Landis, director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma, was one of many skeptical observers. “The truce will not last because most militias have not signed onto it, but it is important because Turkey is putting the militias on notice that it’s border will be closing to them and that the world will turn its backs on the military effort to make Assad step aside,” he said.
The groups that appeared on both lists hold territory in Syria’s northwest, along the border with Turkey; east of the capital, Damascus; and in the south, near the border with Jordan. Most are mainstream groups, but the list also included Ahrar al-Sham, a hard-line Islamist group that has close operational ties with Al Qaeda’s affiliate in Syria. “This points toward the ‘political’ solution that Assad and the Russians have been demanding, which is that the world must stop supporting the insurgency,” he continued. “The regime will negotiate amnesty with militias it can deal with and will kill or chase out of Syria all those who refuse to sue for peace or whom it considers unredeemable or jihadists.”
Of the seven rebel groups said to be signers of the deal — the precise details still were not clear Thursday evening — five have gotten American military aid. The groups hold territory in Syria’s northwest, along the border with Turkey; east of the capital, Damascus; and in the south, near the border with Jordan. Most are mainstream groups, but the list also included Ahrar al-Sham, a hard-line Islamist group that has close operational ties with Al Qaeda’s affiliate in Syria.
Explicitly not included, according to statements by the Syrian Army and the Turkish Foreign Ministry, are the jihadists: the Islamic State, which controls territory in eastern Syria and across the border with Iraq; the Syrian affiliate of Al Qaeda, which is strongest in the country’s northwest; and “groups linked to them.”Explicitly not included, according to statements by the Syrian Army and the Turkish Foreign Ministry, are the jihadists: the Islamic State, which controls territory in eastern Syria and across the border with Iraq; the Syrian affiliate of Al Qaeda, which is strongest in the country’s northwest; and “groups linked to them.”
How to define groups “linked” to the jihadists will be a thorny issue, along with Turkey’s insistence that the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, which backs Mr. Assad, withdraw from Syria. How to define groups “linked” to the jihadists will be a thorny issue — the Assad government labels all its opponents “terrorists” — along with Turkey’s insistence that the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, which backs Mr. Assad, withdraw from Syria. Under the agreement, Iran is supposed to help monitor compliance by Mr. Assad’s government and by allied Shiite militias, including Hezbollah, he said.
Numerous attempts by outside powers to broker lasting cease-fires in Syria have failed, including an agreement in September between Russia and the United States to allow humanitarian aid into besieged areas. The deal quickly fell apart. There were reports on Thursday of new aerial bombings in eastern Ghouta, a suburb of Damascus, but that was before the announcement in Moscow. Fifteen people were killed, including six children, according to a group that monitors the conflict.
While the new agreement followed the same formula as previous cease-fires, the dynamics on the ground have changed since forces loyal to Mr. Assad took back control of eastern Aleppo, emboldening Moscow and Damascus and leaving the opposition with little leverage in negotiations. Past cease-fire accords have repeatedly failed, including an agreement in September between Russia and the United States to allow humanitarian aid into besieged areas. The deal quickly fell apart.
The announcement followed days of negotiations that involved Mr. Assad’s government, Russia, Iran and Turkey — but, pointedly, not the United States or the United Nations. President-elect Donald J. Trump has called President Obama’s Syria policies a failure and pushed to end support for Syrian rebels, vowing to make fighting terrorism virtually the entirety of his administration’s Syria policy. While the new agreement followed the same formula as previous ones, the dynamics on the ground have changed since forces loyal to Mr. Assad took back control of eastern Aleppo, emboldening Moscow and Damascus and leaving the opposition with little leverage in negotiations.
Russia, Mr. Assad’s backer, and Turkey, which supports some of the rebel groups, will guarantee the truce, set to begin at midnight on Thursday, Mr. Putin said. Minutes later, the Syrian military said it would halt operations nationwide starting at midnight. Russia, Mr. Assad’s backer, and Turkey, which supports some of the rebel groups, will guarantee the truce. Military operations are to halt nationwide as well.
Three agreements were signed, Mr. Putin said: the cease-fire itself; an agreement detailing how it would be carried out; and a third expressing readiness to begin peace talks for a settlement to the conflict.Three agreements were signed, Mr. Putin said: the cease-fire itself; an agreement detailing how it would be carried out; and a third expressing readiness to begin peace talks for a settlement to the conflict.
Mr. Putin said that Mr. Assad’s government and the opposition would take part in peace talks in Kazakhstan, but he did not give a date. A leaked text of the agreement said the talks would begin a month after the cease-fire went into effect.
The Russian defense minister, Sergei K. Shoigu, said that the truce would include 62,000 opposition fighters across Syria, and that the Russian military had set up a hotline with its Turkish counterpart to allow immediate communication about the truce and whether it was being met.The Russian defense minister, Sergei K. Shoigu, said that the truce would include 62,000 opposition fighters across Syria, and that the Russian military had set up a hotline with its Turkish counterpart to allow immediate communication about the truce and whether it was being met.
In a brief statement, the Syrian Army said the cease-fire came “after the victories and successes that our armed forces accomplished in more than one place,” an allusion to the recent retaking of Aleppo by government forces and allied militias.In a brief statement, the Syrian Army said the cease-fire came “after the victories and successes that our armed forces accomplished in more than one place,” an allusion to the recent retaking of Aleppo by government forces and allied militias.
Ahmad al-Saoud, a spokesman for a C.I.A.-backed rebel group that is included in the agreement, said in an phone interview that meetings about the cease-fire were continuing in Ankara, the Turkish capital. Ahmad al-Saoud, a spokesman for a C.I.A.-backed rebel group that is included in the agreement, said in a phone interview that meetings about the cease-fire were continuing in Ankara, the Turkish capital.
There were reports on Thursday of new aerial bombings in eastern Ghouta, a suburb of Damascus, but that was before the announcement in Moscow. Fifteen people were killed, including six children, according to a group that monitors the conflict. Whether the Russian government can pressure pro-Assad forces to curb their attacks against rebels will be critical to determining how meaningful the agreement is. Mr. Putin said that the cease-fire meant that Russia could draw down its forces in Syria. He said once before, in March, that the bulk of Russian forces would come home, yet combat continued apace. The main thrust of the Russian effort is built around its air force, but the military also deployed some ground troops and special forces.
At least some of the rebels who have signed on to the cease-fire have gotten weapons and financing from the American government, though that support might be drying up as United States policy changes with the transition in Washington. “I agree with the Defense Ministry proposal to scale back our military presence in Syria,” Mr. Putin said. “We will certainly continue our fight against international terrorism, of course, and will continue to support the legitimate Syrian government in its fight against terrorism.”
Mr. Assad has called Mr. Trump “a natural ally” in the fight against terrorism, and the Russian foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, said on Thursday that Mr. Trump’s administration would be welcome to join the peace process after he starts on Jan. 20. Russian officials said the talks were not meant to supplant negotiations in Geneva under the purview of the United Nations.
“I would hope that, after the Donald Trump administration takes office, it will also be able to join these efforts,” Mr. Lavrov said at the meeting, shown on state-run television. The office of the United Nations special envoy for Syria, Staffan de Mistura, a veteran of the failures to end the war through diplomacy, issued a statement cautiously welcoming the truce announcement.
The Turkish foreign minister, Mevlut Cavusoglu, told the Turkish news channel A Haber on Thursday that Turkey would guarantee rebel compliance with the cease-fire agreement, while Russia would guarantee adherence by Mr. Assad’s government. Iran will also help monitor compliance by Mr. Assad’s government and by allied Shiite militias, including Hezbollah, he said. “The special envoy hopes that the implementation of the agreement will save civilian lives, facilitate the delivery of humanitarian assistance across Syria, and pave the way for productive talks in Astana,” the statement said.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey called the new agreement a “historic opportunity” and a chance that “absolutely should not be lost.”
President-elect Donald J. Trump has called President Obama’s Syria policies a failure and pushed to end support for Syrian rebels, vowing to make fighting terrorism virtually the entirety of his administration’s Syria policy.
Mr. Assad has called Mr. Trump “a natural ally” in the fight against terrorism, and the Russian foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, said on Thursday that Mr. Trump’s administration would be welcome to join the peace process after the inauguration on Jan. 20.
“I would hope that, after the Donald Trump administration takes office, it will also be able to join these efforts,” Mr. Lavrov said at the meeting with Mr. Putin, shown on state-run television.