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| Catalonia’s Independence Referendum: What’s at Stake? | Catalonia’s Independence Referendum: What’s at Stake? |
| (about 9 hours later) | |
| BARCELONA, Spain — The Spanish region of Catalonia is scheduled to hold a referendum on independence on Sunday, despite fierce opposition from the central government in Madrid and from the courts, which say the vote would violate the Constitution. | BARCELONA, Spain — The Spanish region of Catalonia is scheduled to hold a referendum on independence on Sunday, despite fierce opposition from the central government in Madrid and from the courts, which say the vote would violate the Constitution. |
| The unity of the country is at stake, as is the political survival of Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy. He has stepped up pressure in the region, which has seen arrests and the confiscation of campaign materials. Some Catalan leaders have suggested that Mr. Rajoy is taking the country back to the dark days of dictatorship, although he has resisted hard-liners’ calls for him to seize complete administrative control of Catalonia. | The unity of the country is at stake, as is the political survival of Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy. He has stepped up pressure in the region, which has seen arrests and the confiscation of campaign materials. Some Catalan leaders have suggested that Mr. Rajoy is taking the country back to the dark days of dictatorship, although he has resisted hard-liners’ calls for him to seize complete administrative control of Catalonia. |
| Mr. Rajoy has fought off Catalan pressure before, including five years ago, when Spain’s economic crisis, and Catalonia’s tax contributions to poorer regions, bolstered the secessionist movement. | Mr. Rajoy has fought off Catalan pressure before, including five years ago, when Spain’s economic crisis, and Catalonia’s tax contributions to poorer regions, bolstered the secessionist movement. |
| But separatists in the region today are determined to press ahead. Here’s a guide to the vote, and to the events that led up to it. | But separatists in the region today are determined to press ahead. Here’s a guide to the vote, and to the events that led up to it. |
| It’s one of Spain’s 17 autonomous regions, situated in the country’s northeast and home to 7.5 million people. Catalonia accounts for almost one-fifth of Spain’s output, the equivalent of Portugal’s economy, and has spearheaded Spain’s economic development since the Industrial Revolution. | It’s one of Spain’s 17 autonomous regions, situated in the country’s northeast and home to 7.5 million people. Catalonia accounts for almost one-fifth of Spain’s output, the equivalent of Portugal’s economy, and has spearheaded Spain’s economic development since the Industrial Revolution. |
| The regional capital, Barcelona, hosted the Olympic Games in 1992 and has since been the hub of Spain’s thriving tourism industry, with more than eight million overnight visitors last year. | The regional capital, Barcelona, hosted the Olympic Games in 1992 and has since been the hub of Spain’s thriving tourism industry, with more than eight million overnight visitors last year. |
| Catalonia has its own history, culture and language, as do other parts of Spain. The region’s national day, on Sept. 11, commemorates the capture of Barcelona in 1714 by the troops of King Felipe V, the first Bourbon monarch of Spain, and the loss of autonomy that ensued. As the Romantic Movement swept across Europe in the 19th century, and as Catalonia confirmed its position as an industrial center, nationalism strengthened. | Catalonia has its own history, culture and language, as do other parts of Spain. The region’s national day, on Sept. 11, commemorates the capture of Barcelona in 1714 by the troops of King Felipe V, the first Bourbon monarch of Spain, and the loss of autonomy that ensued. As the Romantic Movement swept across Europe in the 19th century, and as Catalonia confirmed its position as an industrial center, nationalism strengthened. |
| The region’s push for political autonomy from Madrid in the 1930s was one of the reasons behind the Spanish Civil War, and the resulting dictatorship of Gen. Francisco Franco crushed many civil liberties, suppressing the Catalan language. After Franco’s death in 1975, Spain’s return to democracy was enshrined in a new Constitution, which created a decentralized but not formally federal state. | The region’s push for political autonomy from Madrid in the 1930s was one of the reasons behind the Spanish Civil War, and the resulting dictatorship of Gen. Francisco Franco crushed many civil liberties, suppressing the Catalan language. After Franco’s death in 1975, Spain’s return to democracy was enshrined in a new Constitution, which created a decentralized but not formally federal state. |
| The resulting administrative structure of Spain gave Catalans a significant degree of political autonomy — but not enough, according to the region’s current political leadership. | The resulting administrative structure of Spain gave Catalans a significant degree of political autonomy — but not enough, according to the region’s current political leadership. |
| At one point, Spain’s national lawmakers came close to appeasing Catalan’s nationalist sentiment by allowing the region special autonomy. But when that statute was partially struck down by the Constitutional Court in 2010, tensions came to the fore. | At one point, Spain’s national lawmakers came close to appeasing Catalan’s nationalist sentiment by allowing the region special autonomy. But when that statute was partially struck down by the Constitutional Court in 2010, tensions came to the fore. |
| Catalans are scheduled to vote in a referendum that has been declared illegal by the government in Madrid and by the courts, but that fulfills a pledge by the coalition of separatist parties that has governed Catalonia since 2015. | |
| This month, separatist lawmakers approved regional laws to facilitate the referendum and to put its result into effect, even after being warned by the government of Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy that such legislation would violate Spain’s Constitution, and that Madrid would use all possible means to prevent a referendum from taking place. | This month, separatist lawmakers approved regional laws to facilitate the referendum and to put its result into effect, even after being warned by the government of Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy that such legislation would violate Spain’s Constitution, and that Madrid would use all possible means to prevent a referendum from taking place. |
| The Constitutional Court suspended the referendum law, but the Catalan government has forged ahead with voting preparations. In response, Madrid has taken several measures — with the backing of the police — to block the vote and to punish its organizers. | |
| President Trump said on Monday that he supports the idea of a unified Spain, which seemed to contradict previously stated United States policy that the planned vote on Sunday was a domestic issue. | President Trump said on Monday that he supports the idea of a unified Spain, which seemed to contradict previously stated United States policy that the planned vote on Sunday was a domestic issue. |
| “Speaking for myself, I would like to see Spain continue to be united,” Mr. Trump said at a White House news conference with Mr. Rajoy following a meeting of the two leaders. | “Speaking for myself, I would like to see Spain continue to be united,” Mr. Trump said at a White House news conference with Mr. Rajoy following a meeting of the two leaders. |
| It appeared that the president was siding squarely with Mr. Rajoy, but he did not say that he thought the referendum was illegal and should not be held. | It appeared that the president was siding squarely with Mr. Rajoy, but he did not say that he thought the referendum was illegal and should not be held. |
| “I think that nobody knows if they’re going to have a vote,” Mr. Trump said, adding that he thinks Mr. Rajoy “would say they’re not going to have a vote. But I think that the people would be very much opposed to that.” | “I think that nobody knows if they’re going to have a vote,” Mr. Trump said, adding that he thinks Mr. Rajoy “would say they’re not going to have a vote. But I think that the people would be very much opposed to that.” |
| It was not immediately clear if Mr. Trump’s statements amounted to an official change in U.S. position regarding Catalonia’s bid for independence, but even if it were, it would be unlikely to have much impact on a vote. | It was not immediately clear if Mr. Trump’s statements amounted to an official change in U.S. position regarding Catalonia’s bid for independence, but even if it were, it would be unlikely to have much impact on a vote. |
| Carles Puigdemont, the leader of Catalonia, promised this month that the region would vote in normal conditions, as in past elections. Yet the response from Madrid has been forceful enough that it is unlikely to be a normal referendum. | Carles Puigdemont, the leader of Catalonia, promised this month that the region would vote in normal conditions, as in past elections. Yet the response from Madrid has been forceful enough that it is unlikely to be a normal referendum. |
| In fact, it’s unclear if and how people will vote on Sunday, especially given that the Spanish police could stop people from entering polling stations. | In fact, it’s unclear if and how people will vote on Sunday, especially given that the Spanish police could stop people from entering polling stations. |
| Assuming ballots are cast, the regional Parliament has committed to making the result binding within 48 hours, which could translate any approval for a Catalan republic into a unilateral declaration of independence. Under Spanish law, however, the national government could still invoke emergency powers to take full administrative control of Catalonia. | Assuming ballots are cast, the regional Parliament has committed to making the result binding within 48 hours, which could translate any approval for a Catalan republic into a unilateral declaration of independence. Under Spanish law, however, the national government could still invoke emergency powers to take full administrative control of Catalonia. |
| In June 2012, 51.1 percent of respondents in a survey said they wanted independence, according to the Centre d’Estudis d’Opinió, Catalonia’s polling agency. Separatists then consolidated their power in September 2015, winning a majority of seats in the regional Parliament, although only 48 percent of voters cast ballots for separatist parties. | In June 2012, 51.1 percent of respondents in a survey said they wanted independence, according to the Centre d’Estudis d’Opinió, Catalonia’s polling agency. Separatists then consolidated their power in September 2015, winning a majority of seats in the regional Parliament, although only 48 percent of voters cast ballots for separatist parties. |
| Recent opinion polls have shown support for independence waning, but they have also confirmed that most Catalans want a vote to be held on the issue of statehood — regardless of the outcome. | Recent opinion polls have shown support for independence waning, but they have also confirmed that most Catalans want a vote to be held on the issue of statehood — regardless of the outcome. |
| Amid mounting political tensions, the results of opinion polls have themselves been disputed. Still, politicians and sociologists generally agree that about half of those who voted for separatist parties in 2015 had not supported secession a decade earlier. | Amid mounting political tensions, the results of opinion polls have themselves been disputed. Still, politicians and sociologists generally agree that about half of those who voted for separatist parties in 2015 had not supported secession a decade earlier. |
| The region held a ballot on independence in November 2014. It was a nonbinding vote that had been declared illegal by the Constitutional Court, but that the central government and the police did not prevent. | The region held a ballot on independence in November 2014. It was a nonbinding vote that had been declared illegal by the Constitutional Court, but that the central government and the police did not prevent. |
| At the time, 2.2 million of 5.4 million eligible voters took part, and about 80 percent favored independence. Mr. Rajoy’s government dismissed the result, saying the vote had been illegal and nonbinding, and noting that a majority of Catalans had not even cast ballots. | At the time, 2.2 million of 5.4 million eligible voters took part, and about 80 percent favored independence. Mr. Rajoy’s government dismissed the result, saying the vote had been illegal and nonbinding, and noting that a majority of Catalans had not even cast ballots. |
| Madrid’s actions went beyond words, however: Catalan politicians were summoned to court in 2015 for their role in organizing the vote. Artur Mas, Catalonia’s former leader, was fined in March of this year and barred from holding office for two years. | Madrid’s actions went beyond words, however: Catalan politicians were summoned to court in 2015 for their role in organizing the vote. Artur Mas, Catalonia’s former leader, was fined in March of this year and barred from holding office for two years. |
| The consequences of this referendum are anybody’s guess. Five years ago, Spain was in a deep financial crisis, and politicians in Madrid and Barcelona were bickering more about money and Catalonia’s tax contributions to poorer regions than they were about sovereignty. | The consequences of this referendum are anybody’s guess. Five years ago, Spain was in a deep financial crisis, and politicians in Madrid and Barcelona were bickering more about money and Catalonia’s tax contributions to poorer regions than they were about sovereignty. |
| Still, the separatist Catalan leadership says it would not return to a negotiating table to discuss finances alone. And any reversal on independence could break up the region’s fragile governing coalition, which relies on the support of a small far-left party. | Still, the separatist Catalan leadership says it would not return to a negotiating table to discuss finances alone. And any reversal on independence could break up the region’s fragile governing coalition, which relies on the support of a small far-left party. |
| The political situation in Madrid is also far more complicated today than it was at the time of the last independence vote. In 2014, Mr. Rajoy’s Popular Party had a parliamentary majority and his political survival wasn’t at stake. Since late 2016, he has been at the helm of a minority government. A deepening territorial crisis could prompt opposition parties to push for his removal. | The political situation in Madrid is also far more complicated today than it was at the time of the last independence vote. In 2014, Mr. Rajoy’s Popular Party had a parliamentary majority and his political survival wasn’t at stake. Since late 2016, he has been at the helm of a minority government. A deepening territorial crisis could prompt opposition parties to push for his removal. |
| The most pressing challenge, however, could come from the streets of Barcelona. It’s unclear how Catalans might react if Madrid were to order a further clampdown. Since 2012, people backing independence have held peaceful demonstrations in Barcelona that have been among some of the largest ever in Europe. But tensions are reaching a boiling point, and Madrid recently sent thousands more police officers to Catalonia ahead of the vote. | The most pressing challenge, however, could come from the streets of Barcelona. It’s unclear how Catalans might react if Madrid were to order a further clampdown. Since 2012, people backing independence have held peaceful demonstrations in Barcelona that have been among some of the largest ever in Europe. But tensions are reaching a boiling point, and Madrid recently sent thousands more police officers to Catalonia ahead of the vote. |
| An independent Catalonia would be a midsize European nation, with Barcelona, one of Europe’s most cosmopolitan cities, as its capital. Economists disagree over whether withdrawal would hurt the region significantly, or would instead weaken the rest of Spain. But they agree that there would be a short-term economic cost as the two sides adjusted to a new political and territorial reality. | An independent Catalonia would be a midsize European nation, with Barcelona, one of Europe’s most cosmopolitan cities, as its capital. Economists disagree over whether withdrawal would hurt the region significantly, or would instead weaken the rest of Spain. But they agree that there would be a short-term economic cost as the two sides adjusted to a new political and territorial reality. |
| Much would depend on the financial and political terms under which Catalonia left, including how Spain’s debt burden would be split and whether Madrid would impose economic sanctions on Catalonia for withdrawing unilaterally. At previous times of tension, Spanish consumers have boycotted Catalan consumer goods like cava, the region’s sparkling wine. | Much would depend on the financial and political terms under which Catalonia left, including how Spain’s debt burden would be split and whether Madrid would impose economic sanctions on Catalonia for withdrawing unilaterally. At previous times of tension, Spanish consumers have boycotted Catalan consumer goods like cava, the region’s sparkling wine. |
| And then there is the big question of whether Catalonia would be allowed to become a member state of the European Union and could continue to use the euro. (That issue is complicated by the fact that the most radical Catalan separatist party wants nothing to do with Europe’s common currency.) | And then there is the big question of whether Catalonia would be allowed to become a member state of the European Union and could continue to use the euro. (That issue is complicated by the fact that the most radical Catalan separatist party wants nothing to do with Europe’s common currency.) |