This article is from the source 'nytimes' and was first published or seen
on .
It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.
Catalonia’s Independence Referendum: What’s at Stake?
Catalonia’s Independence Push: What Now?
(17 days later)
BARCELONA, Spain — The Spanish region of Catalonia is scheduled to hold a referendum on independence on Sunday, despite fierce opposition from the central government in Madrid and from the courts, which say the vote would violate the Constitution.
BARCELONA, Spain — The Spanish region of Catalonia on Oct. 1 held a referendum on independence, despite fierce opposition from the central government, which said the vote violated the Constitution. The vote was held even after being suspended by the Constitutional Court.
The unity of the country is at stake, as is the political survival of Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy. He has stepped up pressure in the region, which has seen arrests and the confiscation of campaign materials. Some Catalan leaders have suggested that Mr. Rajoy is taking the country back to the dark days of dictatorship, although he has resisted hard-liners’ calls for him to seize complete administrative control of Catalonia.
The region’s defiance in staging the referendum descended into chaos, with hundreds being injured in clashes with the police, according to the Catalan authorities, in one of the gravest tests of Spain’s democracy since the end of the Franco dictatorship in the 1970s.
Mr. Rajoy has fought off Catalan pressure before, including five years ago, when Spain’s economic crisis, and Catalonia’s tax contributions to poorer regions, bolstered the secessionist movement.
The Catalan government published results showing that the referendum had passed overwhelmingly, ratcheting up pressure with the central government and prompting people on both sides of the secessionist debate to take to the streets. About 40 percent of the region’s electorate took part in the vote, according to the Catalan government.
But separatists in the region today are determined to press ahead. Here’s a guide to the vote, and to the events that led up to it.
Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has fought off Catalan pressure before, including five years ago, when Spain’s economic crisis, and Catalonia’s tax contributions to poorer regions, bolstered the secessionist movement.
It’s one of Spain’s 17 autonomous regions, situated in the country’s northeast and home to 7.5 million people. Catalonia accounts for almost one-fifth of Spain’s output, the equivalent of Portugal’s economy, and has spearheaded Spain’s economic development since the Industrial Revolution.
Here’s a guide to the vote, and a look at what to expect.
It’s one of Spain’s 17 autonomous regions, situated in the northeast and home to 7.5 million people. Catalonia accounts for almost one-fifth of Spain’s output, the equivalent of Portugal’s economy, and has spearheaded Spain’s economic development since the Industrial Revolution.
The regional capital, Barcelona, hosted the Olympic Games in 1992 and has since been the hub of Spain’s thriving tourism industry, with more than eight million overnight visitors last year.
The regional capital, Barcelona, hosted the Olympic Games in 1992 and has since been the hub of Spain’s thriving tourism industry, with more than eight million overnight visitors last year.
Catalonia has its own history, culture and language, as do other parts of Spain. The region’s national day, on Sept. 11, commemorates the capture of Barcelona in 1714 by the troops of King Felipe V, the first Bourbon monarch of Spain, and the loss of autonomy that ensued. As the Romantic Movement swept across Europe in the 19th century, and as Catalonia confirmed its position as an industrial center, nationalism strengthened.
Catalonia has its own history, culture and language, as do other parts of Spain. The region’s national day commemorates the capture of Barcelona in 1714 by the troops of King Felipe V, the first Bourbon monarch of Spain, and the loss of autonomy that ensued. As the Romantic Movement swept across Europe in the 19th century, and as Catalonia confirmed its position as an industrial center, nationalism strengthened.
The region’s push for political autonomy from Madrid in the 1930s was one of the reasons behind the Spanish Civil War, and the resulting dictatorship of Gen. Francisco Franco crushed many civil liberties, suppressing the Catalan language. After Franco’s death in 1975, Spain’s return to democracy was enshrined in a new Constitution, which created a decentralized but not formally federal state.
Catalonia’s push for autonomy in the 1930s was one of the reasons behind the Spanish Civil War, and the resulting Franco dictatorship crushed many civil liberties, suppressing the Catalan language. After Franco’s death in 1975, Spain’s return to democracy was enshrined in a new Constitution, which created a decentralized but not formally federal state.
The resulting administrative structure of Spain gave Catalans a significant degree of political autonomy — but not enough, according to the region’s current political leadership.
The resulting administrative structure of Spain gave Catalans a significant degree of political autonomy — but not enough, according to the region’s current political leadership.
At one point, Spain’s national lawmakers came close to appeasing Catalan’s nationalist sentiment by allowing the region special autonomy. But when that statute was partially struck down by the Constitutional Court in 2010, tensions came to the fore.
Catalans voted in a referendum that had been declared illegal by the government in Madrid, with the support of Spain’s judiciary, but which fulfilled a pledge by the coalition of separatist parties that has governed Catalonia since 2015.
Catalans are scheduled to vote in a referendum that has been declared illegal by the government in Madrid and by the courts, but that fulfills a pledge by the coalition of separatist parties that has governed Catalonia since 2015.
The referendum descended into chaos and clashes. National police officers used rubber bullets and truncheons as they tried to shut down polling stations and seize ballot boxes.
This month, separatist lawmakers approved regional laws to facilitate the referendum and to put its result into effect, even after being warned by the government of Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy that such legislation would violate Spain’s Constitution, and that Madrid would use all possible means to prevent a referendum from taking place.
The Catalan government said that 90 percent of voters in the referendum had supported independence. But many noted that more than half of voters had not cast ballots, meaning that the referendum represented the views of a minority. Madrid also said the vote did not use a valid census, and did not honor monitoring and recount guarantees.
The Constitutional Court suspended the referendum law, but the Catalan government has forged ahead with voting preparations. In response, Madrid has taken several measures — with the backing of the police — to block the vote and to punish its organizers.
It sort of proclaimed independence.
President Trump said on Monday that he supports the idea of a unified Spain, which seemed to contradict previously stated United States policy that the planned vote on Sunday was a domestic issue.
Carles Puigdemont issued a declaration of independence Tuesday night, but immediately suspended the decision to allow for more “dialogue,” leaving many confused: By restating Catalonia’s right to independence, he angered the opponents of secession; by refusing to begin the secession process immediately, he frustrated allies.
“Speaking for myself, I would like to see Spain continue to be united,” Mr. Trump said at a White House news conference with Mr. Rajoy following a meeting of the two leaders.
A day later, Mr. Rajoy took a tentative step toward seizing administrative control of Catalonia, but he asked Mr. Puigdemont to first clarify whether he had actually declared independence.
It appeared that the president was siding squarely with Mr. Rajoy, but he did not say that he thought the referendum was illegal and should not be held.
The government in Madrid has several ways to stop secessionism in its tracks. Under Article 155 of Spain’s Constitution, Mr. Rajoy could dissolve the Catalan Parliament, as well as replace the leadership of the regional police and that of the Catalan television and radio broadcaster. But because Article 155 has never been invoked, it’s unclear how forcefully Mr. Rajoy might apply it, or for how long. Eventually, Catalonia is most likely to hold elections to appoint a new government.
“I think that nobody knows if they’re going to have a vote,” Mr. Trump said, adding that he thinks Mr. Rajoy “would say they’re not going to have a vote. But I think that the people would be very much opposed to that.”
Mr. Puigdemont has requested international mediation to resolve the conflict. But Mr. Rajoy has insisted that the Catalan leader would first have to withdraw his independence plan and respect Spain’s constitutional unity. Spain’s main opposition party, the Socialists, also rejects outside mediation.
It was not immediately clear if Mr. Trump’s statements amounted to an official change in U.S. position regarding Catalonia’s bid for independence, but even if it were, it would be unlikely to have much impact on a vote.
So far, Catalan calls for outside help have fallen on deaf ears, with leaders of the European Union urging Mr. Puigdemont to respect Spain’s Constitution.
Carles Puigdemont, the leader of Catalonia, promised this month that the region would vote in normal conditions, as in past elections. Yet the response from Madrid has been forceful enough that it is unlikely to be a normal referendum.
The violence during the voting, which left more than 800 wounded, according to the Catalan authorities, gave many in the region the impression that the national police, dispatched from across the country, was becoming a repressive force. A judge is investigating the clashes.
In fact, it’s unclear if and how people will vote on Sunday, especially given that the Spanish police could stop people from entering polling stations.
On Oct. 7, thousands of people took to the streets of Barcelona, Madrid and other Spanish cities, many of them wearing white and calling for greater dialogue between the Catalan and Spanish governments. A day later, Catalonia’s mostly silent supporters of Spanish unity thronged into the center of Barcelona in support of a united Spain.
Assuming ballots are cast, the regional Parliament has committed to making the result binding within 48 hours, which could translate any approval for a Catalan republic into a unilateral declaration of independence. Under Spanish law, however, the national government could still invoke emergency powers to take full administrative control of Catalonia.
King Felipe VI also stepped forcefully into the political crisis, accusing the region’s separatist leaders of “inadmissible disloyalty.” In response, Mr. Puigdemont, accused the monarch of siding with the government in Madrid rather than reaching out to all Spaniards, and in particular Catalans.
In June 2012, 51.1 percent of respondents in a survey said they wanted independence, according to the Centre d’Estudis d’Opinió, Catalonia’s polling agency. Separatists then consolidated their power in September 2015, winning a majority of seats in the regional Parliament, although only 48 percent of voters cast ballots for separatist parties.
Until the recent political turmoil, economists generally had agreed that Catalonia would be viable as an independent country, but they differed on the impact on jobs, barriers to trade and the spending needs of a new state.
Recent opinion polls have shown support for independence waning, but they have also confirmed that most Catalans want a vote to be held on the issue of statehood — regardless of the outcome.
An independent Catalonia would be a midsize European nation, with Barcelona as its capital. Economists disagree over whether withdrawal would hurt the region significantly, or instead weaken the rest of Spain. But they agree that there would be short-term economic costs as the two sides adjusted, even if the split took place on friendly terms.
Amid mounting political tensions, the results of opinion polls have themselves been disputed. Still, politicians and sociologists generally agree that about half of those who voted for separatist parties in 2015 had not supported secession a decade earlier.
Much would depend on the financial and political terms under which Catalonia left, including how Spain’s debt burden would be apportioned and whether Madrid would impose economic sanctions on Catalonia.
The region held a ballot on independence in November 2014. It was a nonbinding vote that had been declared illegal by the Constitutional Court, but that the central government and the police did not prevent.
The constitutional crisis is sowing jitters among companies. Investors have been withdrawing funds and significantly raising the risk premium they demand for holding Spanish and Catalan debt. Spain’s borrowing costs have risen to their highest level since March. Since the referendum, more than 40 companies, including CaixaBank and Sabadell, said they would move their headquarters outside Catalonia.
At the time, 2.2 million of 5.4 million eligible voters took part, and about 80 percent favored independence. Mr. Rajoy’s government dismissed the result, saying the vote had been illegal and nonbinding, and noting that a majority of Catalans had not even cast ballots.
The corporate concerns also stem from the big question of whether Catalonia would be allowed to become a member state of the European Union and use the euro. That issue is complicated by the fact that the most radical Catalan separatist party wants nothing to do with the currency.
Madrid’s actions went beyond words, however: Catalan politicians were summoned to court in 2015 for their role in organizing the vote. Artur Mas, Catalonia’s former leader, was fined in March of this year and barred from holding office for two years.
So far, the European Union is supporting Spain’s position, even if some politicians and nongovernmental organizations have questioned the police crackdown on voters during the referendum.
The consequences of this referendum are anybody’s guess. Five years ago, Spain was in a deep financial crisis, and politicians in Madrid and Barcelona were bickering more about money and Catalonia’s tax contributions to poorer regions than they were about sovereignty.
Still, the separatist Catalan leadership says it would not return to a negotiating table to discuss finances alone. And any reversal on independence could break up the region’s fragile governing coalition, which relies on the support of a small far-left party.
The political situation in Madrid is also far more complicated today than it was at the time of the last independence vote. In 2014, Mr. Rajoy’s Popular Party had a parliamentary majority and his political survival wasn’t at stake. Since late 2016, he has been at the helm of a minority government. A deepening territorial crisis could prompt opposition parties to push for his removal.
The most pressing challenge, however, could come from the streets of Barcelona. It’s unclear how Catalans might react if Madrid were to order a further clampdown. Since 2012, people backing independence have held peaceful demonstrations in Barcelona that have been among some of the largest ever in Europe. But tensions are reaching a boiling point, and Madrid recently sent thousands more police officers to Catalonia ahead of the vote.
An independent Catalonia would be a midsize European nation, with Barcelona, one of Europe’s most cosmopolitan cities, as its capital. Economists disagree over whether withdrawal would hurt the region significantly, or would instead weaken the rest of Spain. But they agree that there would be a short-term economic cost as the two sides adjusted to a new political and territorial reality.
Much would depend on the financial and political terms under which Catalonia left, including how Spain’s debt burden would be split and whether Madrid would impose economic sanctions on Catalonia for withdrawing unilaterally. At previous times of tension, Spanish consumers have boycotted Catalan consumer goods like cava, the region’s sparkling wine.
And then there is the big question of whether Catalonia would be allowed to become a member state of the European Union and could continue to use the euro. (That issue is complicated by the fact that the most radical Catalan separatist party wants nothing to do with Europe’s common currency.)
