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| Catalonia’s Independence Push: What Now? | Catalonia’s Independence Push: What Now? |
| (2 days later) | |
| BARCELONA, Spain — The Spanish region of Catalonia on Oct. 1 held a referendum on independence on Oct. 1, despite fierce opposition from the central government, which said the vote violated the Constitution. The vote was held even after being suspended by the Constitutional Court. | |
| The region’s defiance in staging the referendum descended into chaos, with hundreds injured in clashes with the police, according to the Catalan authorities, in one of the gravest tests of Spain’s democracy since the end of the Franco dictatorship in the 1970s. | |
| The Catalan government published results showing that the referendum had passed overwhelmingly, ratcheting up pressure with the central government and prompting people on both sides of the secessionist debate to take to the streets. About 40 percent of the region’s electorate took part in the vote, according to the Catalan government. | The Catalan government published results showing that the referendum had passed overwhelmingly, ratcheting up pressure with the central government and prompting people on both sides of the secessionist debate to take to the streets. About 40 percent of the region’s electorate took part in the vote, according to the Catalan government. |
| Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has fought off Catalan pressure before, including five years ago, when Spain’s economic crisis, and Catalonia’s tax contributions to poorer regions, bolstered the secessionist movement. | Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has fought off Catalan pressure before, including five years ago, when Spain’s economic crisis, and Catalonia’s tax contributions to poorer regions, bolstered the secessionist movement. |
| Here’s a guide to the vote, and a look at what to expect. | Here’s a guide to the vote, and a look at what to expect. |
| It’s one of Spain’s 17 autonomous regions, situated in the northeast and home to 7.5 million people. Catalonia accounts for almost one-fifth of Spain’s output, the equivalent of Portugal’s economy, and has spearheaded Spain’s economic development since the Industrial Revolution. | It’s one of Spain’s 17 autonomous regions, situated in the northeast and home to 7.5 million people. Catalonia accounts for almost one-fifth of Spain’s output, the equivalent of Portugal’s economy, and has spearheaded Spain’s economic development since the Industrial Revolution. |
| The regional capital, Barcelona, hosted the Olympic Games in 1992 and has since been the hub of Spain’s thriving tourism industry, with more than eight million overnight visitors last year. | The regional capital, Barcelona, hosted the Olympic Games in 1992 and has since been the hub of Spain’s thriving tourism industry, with more than eight million overnight visitors last year. |
| Catalonia has its own history, culture and language, as do other parts of Spain. The region’s national day commemorates the capture of Barcelona in 1714 by the troops of King Felipe V, the first Bourbon monarch of Spain, and the loss of autonomy that ensued. As the Romantic Movement swept across Europe in the 19th century, and as Catalonia confirmed its position as an industrial center, nationalism strengthened. | Catalonia has its own history, culture and language, as do other parts of Spain. The region’s national day commemorates the capture of Barcelona in 1714 by the troops of King Felipe V, the first Bourbon monarch of Spain, and the loss of autonomy that ensued. As the Romantic Movement swept across Europe in the 19th century, and as Catalonia confirmed its position as an industrial center, nationalism strengthened. |
| Catalonia’s push for autonomy in the 1930s was one of the reasons behind the Spanish Civil War, and the resulting Franco dictatorship crushed many civil liberties, suppressing the Catalan language. After Franco’s death in 1975, Spain’s return to democracy was enshrined in a new Constitution, which created a decentralized but not formally federal state. | Catalonia’s push for autonomy in the 1930s was one of the reasons behind the Spanish Civil War, and the resulting Franco dictatorship crushed many civil liberties, suppressing the Catalan language. After Franco’s death in 1975, Spain’s return to democracy was enshrined in a new Constitution, which created a decentralized but not formally federal state. |
| The resulting administrative structure of Spain gave Catalans a significant degree of political autonomy — but not enough, according to the region’s current political leadership. | The resulting administrative structure of Spain gave Catalans a significant degree of political autonomy — but not enough, according to the region’s current political leadership. |
| Catalans voted in a referendum that had been declared illegal by the government in Madrid, with the support of Spain’s judiciary, but that fulfilled a pledge by the coalition of separatist parties that has governed Catalonia since 2015. | |
| The referendum descended into chaos and clashes. National police officers used rubber bullets and truncheons as they tried to shut down polling stations and seize ballot boxes. | The referendum descended into chaos and clashes. National police officers used rubber bullets and truncheons as they tried to shut down polling stations and seize ballot boxes. |
| The Catalan government said that 90 percent of voters in the referendum had supported independence. But many noted that more than half of voters had not cast ballots, meaning that the referendum represented the views of a minority. Madrid also said the vote did not use a valid census, and did not honor monitoring and recount guarantees. | The Catalan government said that 90 percent of voters in the referendum had supported independence. But many noted that more than half of voters had not cast ballots, meaning that the referendum represented the views of a minority. Madrid also said the vote did not use a valid census, and did not honor monitoring and recount guarantees. |
| It sort of proclaimed independence. | It sort of proclaimed independence. |
| Carles Puigdemont issued a declaration of independence on Oct. 10, but immediately suspended the decision to allow for more “dialogue,” leaving many confused: By restating Catalonia’s right to independence, he angered the opponents of secession; by refusing to begin the secession process immediately, he frustrated allies. | |
| A day later, Mr. Rajoy took a tentative step toward seizing administrative control of Catalonia, but he asked Mr. Puigdemont to first clarify whether he had actually declared independence. | A day later, Mr. Rajoy took a tentative step toward seizing administrative control of Catalonia, but he asked Mr. Puigdemont to first clarify whether he had actually declared independence. |
| The government in Madrid has several ways to stop secessionism in its tracks. Under Article 155 of Spain’s Constitution, Mr. Rajoy could dissolve the Catalan Parliament, as well as replace the leadership of the regional police and that of the Catalan television and radio broadcaster. But because Article 155 has never been invoked, it’s unclear how forcefully Mr. Rajoy might apply it, or for how long. Eventually, Catalonia will most likely hold elections to appoint a new government. | |
| Soon after the vote, Mr. Puigdemont requested international help to resolve the conflict. And on Monday, he asked for an urgent meeting with Mr. Rajoy and suggested that mediation could result in a solution within two months. | |
| But Mr. Rajoy has insisted that the Catalan leader would first have to withdraw his independence plan and respect Spain’s constitutional unity. Spain’s main opposition party, the Socialists, also rejects outside mediation. | |
| So far, Catalan calls for outside help have fallen on deaf ears, with leaders of the European Union urging Mr. Puigdemont to respect Spain’s Constitution. | So far, Catalan calls for outside help have fallen on deaf ears, with leaders of the European Union urging Mr. Puigdemont to respect Spain’s Constitution. |
| The violence during the voting, which left more than 800 wounded, according to the Catalan authorities, gave many in the region the impression that the national police, dispatched from across the country, was becoming a repressive force. A judge is investigating the clashes. | The violence during the voting, which left more than 800 wounded, according to the Catalan authorities, gave many in the region the impression that the national police, dispatched from across the country, was becoming a repressive force. A judge is investigating the clashes. |
| On Oct. 7, thousands of people took to the streets of Barcelona, Madrid and other Spanish cities, many of them wearing white and calling for greater dialogue between the Catalan and Spanish governments. A day later, Catalonia’s mostly silent supporters of Spanish unity thronged into the center of Barcelona in support of a united Spain. | On Oct. 7, thousands of people took to the streets of Barcelona, Madrid and other Spanish cities, many of them wearing white and calling for greater dialogue between the Catalan and Spanish governments. A day later, Catalonia’s mostly silent supporters of Spanish unity thronged into the center of Barcelona in support of a united Spain. |
| King Felipe VI also stepped forcefully into the political crisis, accusing the region’s separatist leaders of “inadmissible disloyalty.” In response, Mr. Puigdemont, accused the monarch of siding with the government in Madrid rather than reaching out to all Spaniards, and in particular Catalans. | King Felipe VI also stepped forcefully into the political crisis, accusing the region’s separatist leaders of “inadmissible disloyalty.” In response, Mr. Puigdemont, accused the monarch of siding with the government in Madrid rather than reaching out to all Spaniards, and in particular Catalans. |
| Until the recent political turmoil, economists generally had agreed that Catalonia would be viable as an independent country, but they differed on the impact on jobs, barriers to trade and the spending needs of a new state. | Until the recent political turmoil, economists generally had agreed that Catalonia would be viable as an independent country, but they differed on the impact on jobs, barriers to trade and the spending needs of a new state. |
| An independent Catalonia would be a midsize European nation, with Barcelona as its capital. Economists disagree over whether withdrawal would hurt the region significantly, or instead weaken the rest of Spain. But they agree that there would be short-term economic costs as the two sides adjusted, even if the split took place on friendly terms. | An independent Catalonia would be a midsize European nation, with Barcelona as its capital. Economists disagree over whether withdrawal would hurt the region significantly, or instead weaken the rest of Spain. But they agree that there would be short-term economic costs as the two sides adjusted, even if the split took place on friendly terms. |
| Much would depend on the financial and political terms under which Catalonia left, including how Spain’s debt burden would be apportioned and whether Madrid would impose economic sanctions on Catalonia. | Much would depend on the financial and political terms under which Catalonia left, including how Spain’s debt burden would be apportioned and whether Madrid would impose economic sanctions on Catalonia. |
| The constitutional crisis is sowing jitters among companies. Investors have been withdrawing funds and significantly raising the risk premium they demand for holding Spanish and Catalan debt. Spain’s borrowing costs have risen to their highest level since March. Since the referendum, more than 40 companies, including CaixaBank and Sabadell, said they would move their headquarters outside Catalonia. | The constitutional crisis is sowing jitters among companies. Investors have been withdrawing funds and significantly raising the risk premium they demand for holding Spanish and Catalan debt. Spain’s borrowing costs have risen to their highest level since March. Since the referendum, more than 40 companies, including CaixaBank and Sabadell, said they would move their headquarters outside Catalonia. |
| The corporate concerns also stem from the big question of whether Catalonia would be allowed to become a member state of the European Union and use the euro. That issue is complicated by the fact that the most radical Catalan separatist party wants nothing to do with the currency. | The corporate concerns also stem from the big question of whether Catalonia would be allowed to become a member state of the European Union and use the euro. That issue is complicated by the fact that the most radical Catalan separatist party wants nothing to do with the currency. |
| So far, the European Union is supporting Spain’s position, even if some politicians and nongovernmental organizations have questioned the police crackdown on voters during the referendum. | So far, the European Union is supporting Spain’s position, even if some politicians and nongovernmental organizations have questioned the police crackdown on voters during the referendum. |