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Catalonia crisis: What are the options for Spain now? Catalonia crisis: What are the options for Spain now?
(1 day later)
The independence referendum in Catalonia appears to have put the region on a path to secession from Spain. But will that happen?The independence referendum in Catalonia appears to have put the region on a path to secession from Spain. But will that happen?
Catalonia's 7.5 million people are sharply polarised. At the weekend a vast pro-unity rally took place in Barcelona, rivalling the many pro-independence rallies the city has seen.
Here we look at the possible next moves in the bitter standoff.Here we look at the possible next moves in the bitter standoff.
Independence 'on hold'Independence 'on hold'
Under a Catalan law - not recognised by Spain - the regional parliament can issue the formal declaration of Catalan independence within two days of the referendum results being announced. Catalan leader Carles Puigdemont told the regional parliament in Barcelona on Tuesday that Catalonia had earned its right to be independent but stopped short of issuing a unilateral independence declaration.
The final results from the 1 October referendum in the wealthy north-eastern region suggested 90% of the 2.3 million people who voted backed independence, officials said. Turnout was 43%.
There were some reports of irregularities in the voting and Spain declared the referendum illegal.
Catalan leader Carles Puigdemont told parliament on Tuesday that Catalonia has earned its right to be independent, but stopped short of issuing a unilateral independence declaration.
Instead, he asked Catalonia's parliament to suspend the effect of the vote to enable negotiations to begin with the authorities in Madrid to bring independence about.Instead, he asked Catalonia's parliament to suspend the effect of the vote to enable negotiations to begin with the authorities in Madrid to bring independence about.
The final results from the 1 October referendum in the wealthy north-eastern region suggested 90% of the 2.3 million people who voted had backed independence, officials said. Turnout was 43%.
There were some reports of irregularities in the voting and Spain declared the referendum illegal.
Is Spain set to seize control of Catalonia?Is Spain set to seize control of Catalonia?
Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy sent an extra 4,000 national police to Catalonia ahead of the referendum - a vote declared illegal by Spain's Constitutional Court. They will stay there while the crisis continues. Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has put Catalonia on notice that it could remove the region's high degree of autonomy.
There is huge bitterness after Spanish police lashed out at ordinary voters, hitting them with batons and dragging them away from polling stations. Article 155 of Spain's 1978 constitution allows Madrid to impose direct rule in a crisis, but has never been invoked in democratic Spain.
Mr Rajoy said on Wednesday that his government had asked the regional government to clarify whether or not it had declared independence before taking its next step.
He accused Mr Puigdemont of having created "deliberate confusion" and said he wanted to restore "certainty".
It would be Spain's Senate - the upper house of parliament, controlled by Mr Rajoy's conservative Popular Party (PP) - that would launch the transfer of powers to Madrid from Catalonia.
Prof Carlos Vidal, a law expert at UNED university in Madrid, told the daily La Razon that within a week Madrid could start taking back powers from Catalonia. But the article does not envisage a wholesale dissolution of Catalan autonomy. And the constitution does not specify a time frame for "temporary" direct rule.
Madrid may also decide to call new regional elections, hoping to thwart the independence drive.
Mr Rajoy sent an extra 4,000 national police to Catalonia ahead of the referendum - a vote declared illegal by Spain's Constitutional Court. They will stay there while the crisis continues.
There is huge bitterness after Spanish police lashed out at ordinary voters on referendum day, hitting them with batons and dragging them away from polling stations.
The pictures probably damaged Spain's image internationally and boosted support for the Catalan independence movement.The pictures probably damaged Spain's image internationally and boosted support for the Catalan independence movement.
They also showed Madrid's determination to stand firm against Catalan independence. So a further crackdown cannot be ruled out.They also showed Madrid's determination to stand firm against Catalan independence. So a further crackdown cannot be ruled out.
Last week the Catalan police chief, Josep Lluis Trapero, and two top independence activists were grilled by a judge in Madrid. They were not charged, but Spain might yet arrest independence leaders. Catalan police chief, Josep Lluis Trapero, and two top independence activists have been questioned by a judge in Madrid. They were not charged but Spain may yet arrest independence leaders.
Catalonia has a high degree of autonomy from Spain. But Article 155 of Spain's 1978 constitution allows Madrid to impose direct rule in a crisis.
Under such circumstances, it says the Spanish government may "issue instructions to all the authorities of the self-governing communities" such as Catalonia, the Basque Country and Galicia - meaning direct rule from Madrid.
Article 155 has never been invoked in democratic Spain under the post-Franco constitution.
It would be Spain's Senate - the upper house of parliament, controlled by Mr Rajoy's conservative Popular Party (PP) - that would launch the transfer of powers to Madrid from Catalonia.
Prof Carlos Vidal, a law expert at UNED university in Madrid, told the daily La Razon that within a week Madrid could start taking back powers from Catalonia. But the article does not envisage a wholesale dissolution of Catalan autonomy. And the constitution does not specify a time-frame for "temporary" direct rule.
Madrid might also decide to call new regional elections, hoping to thwart the independence drive.
More on the Catalan crisisMore on the Catalan crisis
Is there room for compromise?Is there room for compromise?
Yes. Catalan independence is by no means inevitable.Yes. Catalan independence is by no means inevitable.
Mr Puigdemont has called for negotiations before - but so far Madrid has refused.Mr Puigdemont has called for negotiations before - but so far Madrid has refused.
He also wants international mediation in the crisis - and there is no sign of that, as Madrid does not want it. The EU - traditionally wary of secessionist movements - sees the crisis as an internal matter for Spain.He also wants international mediation in the crisis - and there is no sign of that, as Madrid does not want it. The EU - traditionally wary of secessionist movements - sees the crisis as an internal matter for Spain.
In practice, for any region it is very hard to achieve independence under international law. Kosovo discovered that - even though it had a strong case on human rights grounds.In practice, for any region it is very hard to achieve independence under international law. Kosovo discovered that - even though it had a strong case on human rights grounds.
What else could Madrid do?What else could Madrid do?
The Spanish government could still make a gesture to appease the Catalan separatists who dominate the Catalan parliament.The Spanish government could still make a gesture to appease the Catalan separatists who dominate the Catalan parliament.
The independence movement was galvanised by a 2010 Spanish Constitutional Court ruling which many Catalans saw as a humiliation.The independence movement was galvanised by a 2010 Spanish Constitutional Court ruling which many Catalans saw as a humiliation.
That ruling struck down some key parts of Catalonia's 2006 autonomy statute. The court refused to recognise Catalonia as a nation within Spain; the Catalan language should not take precedence over Spanish in the region; and measures giving Catalonia more financial autonomy were overruled.That ruling struck down some key parts of Catalonia's 2006 autonomy statute. The court refused to recognise Catalonia as a nation within Spain; the Catalan language should not take precedence over Spanish in the region; and measures giving Catalonia more financial autonomy were overruled.
The court acted after Mr Rajoy's party asked it to. Now, to defuse this crisis, Madrid could agree to negotiate and reinstate the elements of autonomy that were taken from Catalonia.The court acted after Mr Rajoy's party asked it to. Now, to defuse this crisis, Madrid could agree to negotiate and reinstate the elements of autonomy that were taken from Catalonia.
Madrid could also change Section 92 of the constitution, to allow a legally binding referendum to take place. But that appears unlikely, as such an initiative would have to come from the Spanish government and be supported by the king.Madrid could also change Section 92 of the constitution, to allow a legally binding referendum to take place. But that appears unlikely, as such an initiative would have to come from the Spanish government and be supported by the king.
Holding a new Catalan referendum would also be risky for Madrid, as its intransigence in the current crisis may have boosted the Catalan independence cause.Holding a new Catalan referendum would also be risky for Madrid, as its intransigence in the current crisis may have boosted the Catalan independence cause.
Will economic pressure make Catalonia back down?Will economic pressure make Catalonia back down?
It is a major factor now. Madrid has powerful economic levers, even though Catalonia is one of Spain's wealthiest regions.It is a major factor now. Madrid has powerful economic levers, even though Catalonia is one of Spain's wealthiest regions.
The banks Caixa and Sabadell, along with several utility companies, are moving their legal headquarters out of Catalonia, and others may follow them, as Spain has made it easier for businesses to leave.The banks Caixa and Sabadell, along with several utility companies, are moving their legal headquarters out of Catalonia, and others may follow them, as Spain has made it easier for businesses to leave.
Catalonia accounts for about one-fifth of Spain's economic output. But Catalonia also has a huge pile of debt, and owes €52bn (£47bn; $61bn) to the Spanish government. Catalonia accounts for about one-fifth of Spain's economic output but Catalonia also has a huge pile of debt, and owes €52bn (£47bn; $61bn) to the Spanish government.