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Catalonia crisis: What next for Spain? Catalonia crisis: What next for Spain?
(2 days later)
It is the biggest political crisis in Spain for 40 years and a major challenge for the European Union.It is the biggest political crisis in Spain for 40 years and a major challenge for the European Union.
After years of mutual hostility, independence supporters have proclaimed a Catalan republic and Spain has responded by imposing direct rule on the autonomous region.After years of mutual hostility, independence supporters have proclaimed a Catalan republic and Spain has responded by imposing direct rule on the autonomous region.
So how could events unfold in Catalonia now?So how could events unfold in Catalonia now?
How did we arrive here?How did we arrive here?
Years of Catalan ill-feeling over the level of autonomy the region had under the Spanish constitution culminated in a surge towards independence this autumn.Years of Catalan ill-feeling over the level of autonomy the region had under the Spanish constitution culminated in a surge towards independence this autumn.
On 27 October, the regional parliament, where separatist MPs made up the majority, officially declared independence, just as the Spanish Senate met to discuss the government's response.On 27 October, the regional parliament, where separatist MPs made up the majority, officially declared independence, just as the Spanish Senate met to discuss the government's response.
The Catalan MPs voted to transfer legal power from Spain, a constitutional monarchy, to an independent republic. That means they no longer recognise the Spanish constitution.The Catalan MPs voted to transfer legal power from Spain, a constitutional monarchy, to an independent republic. That means they no longer recognise the Spanish constitution.
Catalan MPs opposed to independence, who won about 40% of the vote at Catalonia's last regional election, boycotted the vote.Catalan MPs opposed to independence, who won about 40% of the vote at Catalonia's last regional election, boycotted the vote.
They had likewise boycotted the self-determination referendum on 1 October, which Spain tried to ban. That ballot, according to the organisers, resulted in a Yes vote of 90%, with turnout of 43%.They had likewise boycotted the self-determination referendum on 1 October, which Spain tried to ban. That ballot, according to the organisers, resulted in a Yes vote of 90%, with turnout of 43%.
How did Madrid respond?How did Madrid respond?
It used new emergency powers, under Article 155 of the Spanish constitution, to sack Catalan President Carles Puigdemont and his entire cabinet, and dissolve the regional parliament.It used new emergency powers, under Article 155 of the Spanish constitution, to sack Catalan President Carles Puigdemont and his entire cabinet, and dissolve the regional parliament.
Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy's loyal right hand, Deputy Prime Minister Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría, has been appointed to run the region temporarily.Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy's loyal right hand, Deputy Prime Minister Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría, has been appointed to run the region temporarily.
An early regional election has been called for 21 December.An early regional election has been called for 21 December.
Catalonia's 17,000-strong local police force, the Mossos d'Esquadra, was taken over by the Spanish Ministry of Interior. The force's popular chief, Josep Lluis Trapero, was also dismissed and replaced by his low-profile deputy, Ferran López.Catalonia's 17,000-strong local police force, the Mossos d'Esquadra, was taken over by the Spanish Ministry of Interior. The force's popular chief, Josep Lluis Trapero, was also dismissed and replaced by his low-profile deputy, Ferran López.
What do the Catalan separatists do now?What do the Catalan separatists do now?
Mr Puigdemont has said he and his allies will resist "democratically" the imposition of direct rule.Mr Puigdemont has said he and his allies will resist "democratically" the imposition of direct rule.
One major question is how the Mossos will react if they are ordered by their new commander to evict dismissed officials from their offices.One major question is how the Mossos will react if they are ordered by their new commander to evict dismissed officials from their offices.
Grassroots independence activists have been calling for mass demonstrations to "defend the republic".Grassroots independence activists have been calling for mass demonstrations to "defend the republic".
It is likely that the separatists will organise strikes, boycotts and more mass rallies in response to Madrid's actions.It is likely that the separatists will organise strikes, boycotts and more mass rallies in response to Madrid's actions.
The main separatist grassroots group, the Catalan National Assembly, regards the Rajoy administration as a "foreign government".The main separatist grassroots group, the Catalan National Assembly, regards the Rajoy administration as a "foreign government".
It has called on the region's civil servants, nearly 27,000 of whom are employed directly by the Catalan government, not to follow orders from the Spanish government in a display of "peaceful resistance".It has called on the region's civil servants, nearly 27,000 of whom are employed directly by the Catalan government, not to follow orders from the Spanish government in a display of "peaceful resistance".
Do the secessionists face legal action?Do the secessionists face legal action?
Spanish prosecutors are expected to file charges of rebellion, a crime punishable by up to 30 years in prison, against Mr Puigdemont next week.Spanish prosecutors are expected to file charges of rebellion, a crime punishable by up to 30 years in prison, against Mr Puigdemont next week.
A court will then decide whether to accept the charges.A court will then decide whether to accept the charges.
The proclamation of the republic was passed in a secret ballot, meaning it will be difficult for prosecutors to bring criminal charges against MPs.The proclamation of the republic was passed in a secret ballot, meaning it will be difficult for prosecutors to bring criminal charges against MPs.
Mr Trapero could still be charged with sedition for allegedly failing to aid nationally subordinated police officers tackle pro-independence protesters during an incident in Barcelona during the run-up to the referendum.Mr Trapero could still be charged with sedition for allegedly failing to aid nationally subordinated police officers tackle pro-independence protesters during an incident in Barcelona during the run-up to the referendum.
Two key figures in the grassroots separatist movement, Jordi Cuixart and Jordi Sanchez, are in custody in a prison near Madrid awaiting the outcome of an investigation into the same incident.Two key figures in the grassroots separatist movement, Jordi Cuixart and Jordi Sanchez, are in custody in a prison near Madrid awaiting the outcome of an investigation into the same incident.
Can Madrid really regain control?Can Madrid really regain control?
It is not clear how quickly or effectively Spain can reassert central control over Catalonia.It is not clear how quickly or effectively Spain can reassert central control over Catalonia.
It is reported that Mossos officers have been urged to remain neutral as they begin taking orders from Madrid.It is reported that Mossos officers have been urged to remain neutral as they begin taking orders from Madrid.
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The plan is for the special measures to remain in place until the election in December.The plan is for the special measures to remain in place until the election in December.
On paper, the plan is clear, the BBC's Sarah Rainsford reports, but implementing that in practice is a complex process, and one bound to meet stiff resistance from those who just voted for independence.On paper, the plan is clear, the BBC's Sarah Rainsford reports, but implementing that in practice is a complex process, and one bound to meet stiff resistance from those who just voted for independence.
Any use of force by the security forces will be closely watched after the uproar over police brutality on polling day.Any use of force by the security forces will be closely watched after the uproar over police brutality on polling day.
Videos showed police dragging some voters away from ballot boxes and hitting them with batons.Videos showed police dragging some voters away from ballot boxes and hitting them with batons.
Is there still room for compromise?Is there still room for compromise?
The two sides are poles apart after the proclamation of independence and imposition of direct rule.The two sides are poles apart after the proclamation of independence and imposition of direct rule.
One significant gesture the Spanish government could still make to appease Catalan nationalists is to restore some constitutional amendments from 2006 which boosted Catalonia's status.One significant gesture the Spanish government could still make to appease Catalan nationalists is to restore some constitutional amendments from 2006 which boosted Catalonia's status.
They were struck down four years later at the request of Mr Rajoy's own Popular Party.They were struck down four years later at the request of Mr Rajoy's own Popular Party.
How great is the economic factor?How great is the economic factor?
Madrid has powerful economic levers, even though Catalonia is one of Spain's wealthiest regions.Madrid has powerful economic levers, even though Catalonia is one of Spain's wealthiest regions.
More than 1,600 companies, including the banks Caixa and Sabadell and several utility companies, have decided to move their legal headquarters out of Catalonia since the referendum.More than 1,600 companies, including the banks Caixa and Sabadell and several utility companies, have decided to move their legal headquarters out of Catalonia since the referendum.
Catalonia accounts for about a fifth of Spain's economic output but Catalonia also has a huge pile of debt and owes €52bn (£47bn; $61bn) to the Spanish government.Catalonia accounts for about a fifth of Spain's economic output but Catalonia also has a huge pile of debt and owes €52bn (£47bn; $61bn) to the Spanish government.
Will the outside world act over Catalonia?Will the outside world act over Catalonia?
The cause of Catalan statehood has long been argued abroad by the separatists and since the referendum they have been calling for international mediation.The cause of Catalan statehood has long been argued abroad by the separatists and since the referendum they have been calling for international mediation.
The motion passed by the Catalan parliament urges the EU to "intervene to stop the violation of civic and political rights" by the Spanish government.The motion passed by the Catalan parliament urges the EU to "intervene to stop the violation of civic and political rights" by the Spanish government.
However, the EU and its individual member states, as well as the US, have made clear they see the crisis as an internal matter for Spain.However, the EU and its individual member states, as well as the US, have made clear they see the crisis as an internal matter for Spain.
"Catalonia is an integral part of Spain, and the United States supports the Spanish government's constitutional measures to keep Spain strong and united," a US state department statement said."Catalonia is an integral part of Spain, and the United States supports the Spanish government's constitutional measures to keep Spain strong and united," a US state department statement said.
It is very hard for any region to achieve independence under international law.It is very hard for any region to achieve independence under international law.
Kosovo discovered that when it broke away from Serbia, even though it had a strong case on human rights grounds and the support of Nato and much of the EU but not, significantly, Spain.Kosovo discovered that when it broke away from Serbia, even though it had a strong case on human rights grounds and the support of Nato and much of the EU but not, significantly, Spain.