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Catalonia crisis: What are the options for Spain now? Catalonia crisis: What next for Spain?
(17 days later)
The independence referendum in Catalonia appears to have put the region on a path to secession from Spain. But will that happen? It is the biggest political crisis in Spain for 40 years and a major challenge for the European Union.
Here we look at the possible next moves in the bitter standoff. After years of mutual hostility, independence supporters have proclaimed a Catalan republic and Spain has responded by imposing direct rule on the autonomous region.
Independence 'on hold' So how could events unfold in Catalonia now?
Catalan leader Carles Puigdemont told the regional parliament in Barcelona on Tuesday that Catalonia had earned its right to be independent but stopped short of issuing a unilateral independence declaration. How did we arrive here?
Instead, he asked Catalonia's parliament to suspend the effect of the vote to enable negotiations to begin with the authorities in Madrid to bring independence about. Years of Catalan ill-feeling over the level of autonomy the region had under the Spanish constitution culminated in a surge towards independence this autumn.
The final results from the 1 October referendum in the wealthy north-eastern region suggested 90% of the 2.3 million people who voted had backed independence, officials said. Turnout was 43%. On 27 October, the regional parliament, where separatist MPs made up the majority, officially declared independence, just as the Spanish Senate met to discuss the government's response.
There were some reports of irregularities in the voting and Spain declared the referendum illegal. The Catalan MPs voted to transfer legal power from Spain, a constitutional monarchy, to an independent republic. That means they no longer recognise the Spanish constitution.
Is Spain set to seize control of Catalonia? Catalan MPs opposed to independence, who won about 40% of the vote at Catalonia's last regional election, boycotted the vote.
Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has put Catalonia on notice that it could remove the region's high degree of autonomy. They had likewise boycotted the self-determination referendum on 1 October, which Spain tried to ban. That ballot, according to the organisers, resulted in a Yes vote of 90%, with turnout of 43%.
Article 155 of Spain's 1978 constitution allows Madrid to impose direct rule in a crisis, but has never been invoked in democratic Spain. How did Madrid respond?
Mr Rajoy said on Wednesday that his government had asked the regional government to clarify whether or not it had declared independence before taking its next step. It used new emergency powers, under Article 155 of the Spanish constitution, to sack Catalan President Carles Puigdemont and his entire cabinet, and dissolve the regional parliament.
He accused Mr Puigdemont of having created "deliberate confusion" and said he wanted to restore "certainty". Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy's loyal right hand, Deputy Prime Minister Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría, has been appointed to run the region temporarily.
It would be Spain's Senate - the upper house of parliament, controlled by Mr Rajoy's conservative Popular Party (PP) - that would launch the transfer of powers to Madrid from Catalonia. An early regional election has been called for 21 December.
Prof Carlos Vidal, a law expert at UNED university in Madrid, told the daily La Razon that within a week Madrid could start taking back powers from Catalonia. But the article does not envisage a wholesale dissolution of Catalan autonomy. And the constitution does not specify a time frame for "temporary" direct rule. Catalonia's 17,000-strong local police force, the Mossos d'Esquadra, was taken over by the Spanish Ministry of Interior. The force's popular chief, Josep Lluis Trapero, was also dismissed and replaced by his low-profile deputy, Ferran López.
Madrid may also decide to call new regional elections, hoping to thwart the independence drive. What do the Catalan separatists do now?
Mr Rajoy sent an extra 4,000 national police to Catalonia ahead of the referendum - a vote declared illegal by Spain's Constitutional Court. They will stay there while the crisis continues. Mr Puigdemont has said he and his allies will resist "democratically" the imposition of direct rule.
There is huge bitterness after Spanish police lashed out at ordinary voters on referendum day, hitting them with batons and dragging them away from polling stations. One major question is how the Mossos will react if they are ordered by their new commander to evict dismissed officials from their offices.
The pictures probably damaged Spain's image internationally and boosted support for the Catalan independence movement. Grassroots independence activists have been calling for mass demonstrations to "defend the republic".
They also showed Madrid's determination to stand firm against Catalan independence. So a further crackdown cannot be ruled out. It is likely that the separatists will organise strikes, boycotts and more mass rallies in response to Madrid's actions.
Catalan police chief, Josep Lluis Trapero, and two top independence activists have been questioned by a judge in Madrid. They were not charged but Spain may yet arrest independence leaders. The main separatist grassroots group, the Catalan National Assembly, regards the Rajoy administration as a "foreign government".
More on the Catalan crisis It has called on the region's civil servants, nearly 27,000 of whom are employed directly by the Catalan government, not to follow orders from the Spanish government in a display of "peaceful resistance".
Is there room for compromise? Do the secessionists face legal action?
Yes. Catalan independence is by no means inevitable. Spanish prosecutors are expected to file charges of rebellion, a crime punishable by up to 30 years in prison, against Mr Puigdemont next week.
Mr Puigdemont has called for negotiations before - but so far Madrid has refused. A court will then decide whether to accept the charges.
He also wants international mediation in the crisis - and there is no sign of that, as Madrid does not want it. The EU - traditionally wary of secessionist movements - sees the crisis as an internal matter for Spain. The proclamation of the republic was passed in a secret ballot, meaning it will be difficult for prosecutors to bring criminal charges against MPs.
In practice, for any region it is very hard to achieve independence under international law. Kosovo discovered that - even though it had a strong case on human rights grounds. Mr Trapero could still be charged with sedition for allegedly failing to aid nationally subordinated police officers tackle pro-independence protesters during an incident in Barcelona during the run-up to the referendum.
What else could Madrid do? Two key figures in the grassroots separatist movement, Jordi Cuixart and Jordi Sanchez, are in custody in a prison near Madrid awaiting the outcome of an investigation into the same incident.
The Spanish government could still make a gesture to appease the Catalan separatists who dominate the Catalan parliament. Can Madrid really regain control?
The independence movement was galvanised by a 2010 Spanish Constitutional Court ruling which many Catalans saw as a humiliation. It is not clear how quickly or effectively Spain can reassert central control over Catalonia.
That ruling struck down some key parts of Catalonia's 2006 autonomy statute. The court refused to recognise Catalonia as a nation within Spain; the Catalan language should not take precedence over Spanish in the region; and measures giving Catalonia more financial autonomy were overruled. It is reported that Mossos officers have been urged to remain neutral as they begin taking orders from Madrid.
The court acted after Mr Rajoy's party asked it to. Now, to defuse this crisis, Madrid could agree to negotiate and reinstate the elements of autonomy that were taken from Catalonia. The plan is for the special measures to remain in place until the election in December.
Madrid could also change Section 92 of the constitution, to allow a legally binding referendum to take place. But that appears unlikely, as such an initiative would have to come from the Spanish government and be supported by the king. On paper, the plan is clear, the BBC's Sarah Rainsford reports, but implementing that in practice is a complex process, and one bound to meet stiff resistance from those who just voted for independence.
Holding a new Catalan referendum would also be risky for Madrid, as its intransigence in the current crisis may have boosted the Catalan independence cause. Any use of force by the security forces will be closely watched after the uproar over police brutality on polling day.
Will economic pressure make Catalonia back down? Videos showed police dragging some voters away from ballot boxes and hitting them with batons.
It is a major factor now. Madrid has powerful economic levers, even though Catalonia is one of Spain's wealthiest regions. Is there still room for compromise?
The banks Caixa and Sabadell, along with several utility companies, are moving their legal headquarters out of Catalonia, and others may follow them, as Spain has made it easier for businesses to leave. The two sides are poles apart after the proclamation of independence and imposition of direct rule.
Catalonia accounts for about one-fifth of Spain's economic output but Catalonia also has a huge pile of debt, and owes €52bn (£47bn; $61bn) to the Spanish government. One significant gesture the Spanish government could still make to appease Catalan nationalists is to restore some constitutional amendments from 2006 which boosted Catalonia's status.
They were struck down four years later at the request of Mr Rajoy's own Popular Party.
How great is the economic factor?
Madrid has powerful economic levers, even though Catalonia is one of Spain's wealthiest regions.
More than 1,600 companies, including the banks Caixa and Sabadell and several utility companies, have decided to move their legal headquarters out of Catalonia since the referendum.
Catalonia accounts for about a fifth of Spain's economic output but Catalonia also has a huge pile of debt and owes €52bn (£47bn; $61bn) to the Spanish government.
Will the outside world act over Catalonia?
The cause of Catalan statehood has long been argued abroad by the separatists and since the referendum they have been calling for international mediation.
The motion passed by the Catalan parliament urges the EU to "intervene to stop the violation of civic and political rights" by the Spanish government.
However, the EU and its individual member states, as well as the US, have made clear they see the crisis as an internal matter for Spain.
"Catalonia is an integral part of Spain, and the United States supports the Spanish government's constitutional measures to keep Spain strong and united," a US state department statement said.
It is very hard for any region to achieve independence under international law.
Kosovo discovered that when it broke away from Serbia, even though it had a strong case on human rights grounds and the support of Nato and much of the EU but not, significantly, Spain.