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UK consumer confidence hits lowest level since Brexit vote - business live UK consumer confidence hits lowest level since Brexit vote, but German business confidence soars - business live
(35 minutes later)
German business confidence has jumped again, in a sign that the European recovery is sizzling away.
In a stark contrast with Britain’s worried consumers, bosses in Europe’s largest economy are very upbeat about their prospects.
The monthly gauge of German business confidence leaped to 117.5 this month, the highest level in many decades.
Firms’ expectations of current conditions dipped a little, but they’re very optimistic about their future prospects.
Ifo chief Clemens Fuest says:
“Sentiment among German businesses is very strong,”
“This was due to far more optimistic business expectations. The German economy is on track for a boom.”
Better than expected November German business confidence report from IFO. Business climate rose to 117.5 in November from 116.8 in October on the back of an improvement in the expectations component. pic.twitter.com/CJedTIyZrr
The Ifo (Germany's most comprehensive business survey) knows no political crisis. https://t.co/SjaucHLETl pic.twitter.com/F3FcFyfNcm
The German IFO index is at its highest level since October 1969. Expectations highest in 7 years ‘only’. pic.twitter.com/Mp6zokKuP1
UK retailer Sports Direct has called a shareholder meeting, to vote on whether to pay £11m to the brother of founder Mike Ashley.
An internal review of links between Sports Direct and John Ashley has concluded that he had actually been underpaid for several years.
John Ashley’s company, Barlin, was paid by Sports Direct to handle deliveries overseas. That arrangement was ended earlier this year, amid concern over corporate governance at Sports Direct.
However, the review into the links found that John Ashley had unfairly missed out on significant bonuses and pay awards.
Mike Ashley plans to abstain on the vote, and says he actually expects independent shareholders to oppose the payout. But to him, it’s a matter of principle....
It’s important for me to say that if John had owed £1 to Sports Direct, I would have ensured any sum was repaid in full. I hope shareholders will therefore be reassured that everything is in order and that any concerns are laid to rest.”
There’s not much drama in the European stock markets this morning.There’s not much drama in the European stock markets this morning.
Britain’s FTSE 100 has dropped by 15 points, or 0.2%.Britain’s FTSE 100 has dropped by 15 points, or 0.2%.
With excellent timing, Bank of England policymaker Silvana Tenrehro has said that future interest rate moves will largely be dictated by Brexit. With excellent timing, Bank of England policymaker Silvana Tenreyro has said that future interest rate moves will largely be dictated by Brexit.
In an interview with Bloomberg, Tenrehro explained that nothing could be ruled out in the Brexit era - a hint that rate cuts or hikes could be on the agenda. In an interview with Bloomberg, Tenreyro explained that nothing could be ruled out in the Brexit era - a hint that rate cuts or hikes could be on the agenda.
“People up until recently thought that Brexit meant monetary policy would remain highly accommodative and interest rates would stay low forever.“People up until recently thought that Brexit meant monetary policy would remain highly accommodative and interest rates would stay low forever.
But Brexit might present other challenges that require the opposite. It might require an adjustment either way, and it’s not obvious. That’s something to be prepared for.”But Brexit might present other challenges that require the opposite. It might require an adjustment either way, and it’s not obvious. That’s something to be prepared for.”
Tenreyro, who joined the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee this summer, also explained that the MPC doesn’t know how the economy will react to Britain’s exit from the EU.Tenreyro, who joined the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee this summer, also explained that the MPC doesn’t know how the economy will react to Britain’s exit from the EU.
“Brexit will likely affect the supply side of the economy,.“Brexit will likely affect the supply side of the economy,.
“We don’t know how the demand side will respond. It depends on how households and companies react to the new normal, to the new potential. Shocks can hit the economy one way or the other and we will have to respond to that.”“We don’t know how the demand side will respond. It depends on how households and companies react to the new normal, to the new potential. Shocks can hit the economy one way or the other and we will have to respond to that.”
Exclusive: BOE's Silvana Tenreyro rules out nothing on interest rates in U.K.'s Brexit-era economy https://t.co/9JSdlI9L8x via @jillianfward @fergalob pic.twitter.com/3P2oMAaWK4Exclusive: BOE's Silvana Tenreyro rules out nothing on interest rates in U.K.'s Brexit-era economy https://t.co/9JSdlI9L8x via @jillianfward @fergalob pic.twitter.com/3P2oMAaWK4
Tenreyro - 2 more hikes over 3y seems reasonable, but Brexit means @bankofengland has to be ready for shocks in either direction. Growth will be modest, but she sees signs of domestic CPI pressure. https://t.co/1quTaRc3p6Tenreyro - 2 more hikes over 3y seems reasonable, but Brexit means @bankofengland has to be ready for shocks in either direction. Growth will be modest, but she sees signs of domestic CPI pressure. https://t.co/1quTaRc3p6
UK consumers won’t feel any more confident after reading today’s front pages.UK consumers won’t feel any more confident after reading today’s front pages.
Several newspapers are leading on yesterday’s warning that Britain face a two-decade long pay squeeze. The Institute for Fiscal Studies reckons that we will be earning around £750 per year less in 2022-23 than in 2007-08, in real terms (adjusted for inflation).Several newspapers are leading on yesterday’s warning that Britain face a two-decade long pay squeeze. The Institute for Fiscal Studies reckons that we will be earning around £750 per year less in 2022-23 than in 2007-08, in real terms (adjusted for inflation).
As economics editor Larry Elliott put it:As economics editor Larry Elliott put it:
Unless the economy performs better than expected, the IFS now thinks Britain is in danger of losing not just one, but getting on for two decades of earnings growth. This would be the equivalent of earnings being lower when John Major left Downing Street in 1997 than when Margaret Thatcher began 18 years of Conservative rule in 1979. Historically, it is without precedent.Unless the economy performs better than expected, the IFS now thinks Britain is in danger of losing not just one, but getting on for two decades of earnings growth. This would be the equivalent of earnings being lower when John Major left Downing Street in 1997 than when Margaret Thatcher began 18 years of Conservative rule in 1979. Historically, it is without precedent.
UK prospects:Wage growth-grimGrowth-grimDebt-grim-And then #BrexitTomorrow's Guardian pic.twitter.com/pqxy2NgC1gUK prospects:Wage growth-grimGrowth-grimDebt-grim-And then #BrexitTomorrow's Guardian pic.twitter.com/pqxy2NgC1g
THE INDEPENDENT: "Britons face two decades without a pay rise" #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/4WWrVfIE4oTHE INDEPENDENT: "Britons face two decades without a pay rise" #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/4WWrVfIE4o
THE TIMES: "Adverts fund paedophile habits" #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/gLaLxXRtRsTHE TIMES: "Adverts fund paedophile habits" #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/gLaLxXRtRs
Today’s survey shows a “big decline” in UK consumer confidence this month, according to Stephen Harmston, head of YouGov reports.Today’s survey shows a “big decline” in UK consumer confidence this month, according to Stephen Harmston, head of YouGov reports.
Harmston adds:Harmston adds:
There have been falls across the board – from how secure people feel in their jobs to what they think house prices will do – and the increased cost of living has put a big squeeze on people’s household finances.There have been falls across the board – from how secure people feel in their jobs to what they think house prices will do – and the increased cost of living has put a big squeeze on people’s household finances.
Overall, these are a gloomy set of consumer confidence figures.”Overall, these are a gloomy set of consumer confidence figures.”
This chart confirms that people are becoming edgier, particularly about their own household finances.This chart confirms that people are becoming edgier, particularly about their own household finances.
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.
UK consumers are feeling at their gloomiest since the immediate aftermath of the EU referendum last June.UK consumers are feeling at their gloomiest since the immediate aftermath of the EU referendum last June.
Pessimism is mounting over household finances, property prices, job security and business activity, according to a new survey from YouGov and the Centre for Economics and Business Research.Pessimism is mounting over household finances, property prices, job security and business activity, according to a new survey from YouGov and the Centre for Economics and Business Research.
Their monthly index of consumer confidence dropped sharply this month, from 109.3 to just 106.6.Their monthly index of consumer confidence dropped sharply this month, from 109.3 to just 106.6.
That’s the same level as immediately after the Brexit vote, and the first monthly fall since June 2017.That’s the same level as immediately after the Brexit vote, and the first monthly fall since June 2017.
Christian Jaccarini, economist at the CEBR, says consumer confidence suffered a series of blows this month, including the Bank of England’s decision to raise interest rates to 0.5%.Christian Jaccarini, economist at the CEBR, says consumer confidence suffered a series of blows this month, including the Bank of England’s decision to raise interest rates to 0.5%.
The first interest rate hike in over a decade triggered fears that higher borrowing costs will compound the inflation-induced squeeze on household incomes.The first interest rate hike in over a decade triggered fears that higher borrowing costs will compound the inflation-induced squeeze on household incomes.
Simultaneously, higher rates and a housing market in slowdown are warning signals for many homeowners, who fear house price growth may be further dampened. With these economic headwinds set to persist, and the OBR forecasting a weaker growth, households are understandably worried.”Simultaneously, higher rates and a housing market in slowdown are warning signals for many homeowners, who fear house price growth may be further dampened. With these economic headwinds set to persist, and the OBR forecasting a weaker growth, households are understandably worried.”
With these storm clouds gathering, shoppers may be reluctant to splash out in the sales today. That would be a blow to retailers who are pinning their hopes on a good Black Friday.With these storm clouds gathering, shoppers may be reluctant to splash out in the sales today. That would be a blow to retailers who are pinning their hopes on a good Black Friday.
Here’s the agendaHere’s the agenda
9am GMT: German IFO survey of business confidence9am GMT: German IFO survey of business confidence
9.30am GMT: UK mortgage approvals numbers for October, from UK Finance (formerly the BBA)9.30am GMT: UK mortgage approvals numbers for October, from UK Finance (formerly the BBA)
2.45pm GMT: US manufacturing and services PMI reports2.45pm GMT: US manufacturing and services PMI reports