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| UK consumer confidence hits lowest level since Brexit vote, but German business confidence soars - business live | UK consumer confidence hits lowest level since Brexit vote, but German business confidence soars - business live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| US manufacturing slipped back in November but still showed a strong level of growth, according to the latest snapshot. | |
| The IHS Market initial manufacturing PMI came in at 53.8, down from 54.6 in October and below expectations of a rise to 54.8. | |
| The services PMI fell from 55.3 to 54.7 in November while the composite PMI dipped from 55.2 to 54.6. | |
| Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit said: | |
| US businesses reported another month of solid growth in November, putting the economy on course for a reasonable, though by no means stellar, fourth quarter. Current PMI readings are broadly consistent with GDP growing at an annualised rate of just over 2%. | |
| There was also good news on hiring, with a slight uptick in employment growth meaning the surveys are indicating non-farm payroll growth of just over 200,000 in November. | |
| Both input costs and selling price inflation picked up, suggesting the upturn is feeding though to higher price pressures, though some of the manufacturing price hikes were attributable to the short-term effects of the hurricane-related supply chain disruptions. | |
| An upturn in new order inflows means we can expect a strong end to the year, though prospects for 2018 remain more mixed. Although expectations about the year ahead slipped lower in the service sector, future optimism hit a two-year high in manufacturing, suggesting the goods-producing sector may start to make a stronger contribution to the economy in coming months. | |
| JUST IN: Macy's shares extend premarket gains after CEO's comments on holiday sales on CNBC, now up 3.5 percent $M pic.twitter.com/cOUsHCYoiZ | |
| After a day off for Thanksgiving, US markets have started off in a positive mood. | |
| Helped by higher oil prices and rising retail shares on Black Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently up 37 points or 0.16% while the S&P 500 opened 0.17% higher and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.13%. Both the S&P and Nasdaq have hit new peaks. | |
| According to Barclaycard, there has been a 4% increase in the amount spent on debit and credit cards by 1pm today compared to last Black Friday. | According to Barclaycard, there has been a 4% increase in the amount spent on debit and credit cards by 1pm today compared to last Black Friday. |
| That includes high street and online sales, and also other spending such as buying a pint of milk. | That includes high street and online sales, and also other spending such as buying a pint of milk. |
| With sales picking up as the day progresses after a slow start, Barclaycard also says it processed a record 976 transactions a second between 12pm and 1pm. Last year’a Black Friday peak was 791 transactions per second. Paulette Rowe, managing director of Barclaycard Payment Solutions, said: | With sales picking up as the day progresses after a slow start, Barclaycard also says it processed a record 976 transactions a second between 12pm and 1pm. Last year’a Black Friday peak was 791 transactions per second. Paulette Rowe, managing director of Barclaycard Payment Solutions, said: |
| Early data suggests that shoppers have once again embraced Black Friday, with many taking advantage of the discounts on offer. The value spent is growing at a slightly slower rate than the number of transactions, indicating consumers may be opting to buy more goods at a lower price rather than investing in a handful of higher-value items. Nevertheless, it’s ‘so far, so normal’ on the high street and retailers will likely be encouraged by the results. | Early data suggests that shoppers have once again embraced Black Friday, with many taking advantage of the discounts on offer. The value spent is growing at a slightly slower rate than the number of transactions, indicating consumers may be opting to buy more goods at a lower price rather than investing in a handful of higher-value items. Nevertheless, it’s ‘so far, so normal’ on the high street and retailers will likely be encouraged by the results. |
| Back with Black Friday, and here is a gallery of pictures from around the world: | Back with Black Friday, and here is a gallery of pictures from around the world: |
| Meanwhile US retail shares are moving higher in premarket trading ahead of the official Wall Street opening, with Macy’s up 1.1%, J C Penney 2.5% better and Best Buy 0.9% better. | Meanwhile US retail shares are moving higher in premarket trading ahead of the official Wall Street opening, with Macy’s up 1.1%, J C Penney 2.5% better and Best Buy 0.9% better. |
| Oil prices are on the rise ahead of a key Opec meeting next week. | Oil prices are on the rise ahead of a key Opec meeting next week. |
| Brent crude is up 0.19% to $63.67 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate jumped nearly 1.5% to a more than two year high of $58.91. Part of the increase is due to the partial shutdown of a pipeline linking Canada with the US after an oil spill, reducing the usual 590,000 barrels a day supply. | Brent crude is up 0.19% to $63.67 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate jumped nearly 1.5% to a more than two year high of $58.91. Part of the increase is due to the partial shutdown of a pipeline linking Canada with the US after an oil spill, reducing the usual 590,000 barrels a day supply. |
| Meanwhile the Opec meeting is widely expected to extend its agreement to curb supplies beyond the original March end date, although Russia’s position on the idea is a little unclear. | Meanwhile the Opec meeting is widely expected to extend its agreement to curb supplies beyond the original March end date, although Russia’s position on the idea is a little unclear. |
| Analysts at S&P have raised their 2018 price target for Brent crude to $55 a barrel but kept their WTI target at $50, saying, “We anticipate that global oil supply is likely to broadly match consumption in the first half of 2018, assuming the Opec cuts are maintained.” | Analysts at S&P have raised their 2018 price target for Brent crude to $55 a barrel but kept their WTI target at $50, saying, “We anticipate that global oil supply is likely to broadly match consumption in the first half of 2018, assuming the Opec cuts are maintained.” |
| S&P added: | S&P added: |
| We recognize the typical volatility of these market indicators, as demonstrated during 2017. We also note the persistence of a wider differential of $6 per barrel (/bbl) between Brent and WTI recently, although we believe this differential is likely to be nominally smaller in 2018. We base our long-term price assumptions mostly on fundamental analysis including assessments of the marginal cost of oil and gas production, as well as supply and demand fundamentals, for example | We recognize the typical volatility of these market indicators, as demonstrated during 2017. We also note the persistence of a wider differential of $6 per barrel (/bbl) between Brent and WTI recently, although we believe this differential is likely to be nominally smaller in 2018. We base our long-term price assumptions mostly on fundamental analysis including assessments of the marginal cost of oil and gas production, as well as supply and demand fundamentals, for example |
| We continue to expect Brent and WTI to be range-bound in 2018. We note that Brent has been trading above $60/bbl since Oct. 27, 2017, having closed at that price on Sept. 25 for the first time since July 2015. As present, futures prices remain above $60/bbl until November 2018. We believe the price increases reflect ongoing OPEC production cuts, supply disruptions, and temporary production declines as well as positive market sentiment about demand. Shipments from northern Iraq were reportedly lower in October and production from several other regions was down as well. However, we assume these specific supply issues will be addressed in coming months. What’s more, we believe that continuing production growth may marginally exceed consumption growth in 2018. | We continue to expect Brent and WTI to be range-bound in 2018. We note that Brent has been trading above $60/bbl since Oct. 27, 2017, having closed at that price on Sept. 25 for the first time since July 2015. As present, futures prices remain above $60/bbl until November 2018. We believe the price increases reflect ongoing OPEC production cuts, supply disruptions, and temporary production declines as well as positive market sentiment about demand. Shipments from northern Iraq were reportedly lower in October and production from several other regions was down as well. However, we assume these specific supply issues will be addressed in coming months. What’s more, we believe that continuing production growth may marginally exceed consumption growth in 2018. |
| Tucking into some lunch at your desk, perhaps after a dash to Pret or Greggs? If so (and even if not!), then get your teeth into the history of Britain’s UK sandwich industry. | Tucking into some lunch at your desk, perhaps after a dash to Pret or Greggs? If so (and even if not!), then get your teeth into the history of Britain’s UK sandwich industry. |
| Guardian Long Read: How the sandwich consumed Britain | Guardian Long Read: How the sandwich consumed Britain |
| Honestly, it’s a great read. | Honestly, it’s a great read. |
| I'll read anything @samknightwrites writes but this piece of business history is exceptional https://t.co/MSH5CJKt4c | I'll read anything @samknightwrites writes but this piece of business history is exceptional https://t.co/MSH5CJKt4c |
| However magical you'd have thought a Guardian longread on sandwiches could be, the reality of it is a hundred times greater https://t.co/Ap2HWHhZzY | However magical you'd have thought a Guardian longread on sandwiches could be, the reality of it is a hundred times greater https://t.co/Ap2HWHhZzY |
| Over in Germany, Amazon workers have gone on strike in protest against pay at the e-commerce giant. | Over in Germany, Amazon workers have gone on strike in protest against pay at the e-commerce giant. |
| The walkout has hit half a dozen Amazon distribution sites in Germany, as staff demand better wages. | The walkout has hit half a dozen Amazon distribution sites in Germany, as staff demand better wages. |
| Workers at its main distribution hub in Italy are also on strike, potentially disrupting activities on Black Friday. | Workers at its main distribution hub in Italy are also on strike, potentially disrupting activities on Black Friday. |
| Associated Press has more details: | Associated Press has more details: |
| In Germany, Ver.di union spokesman Thomas Voss said some 2,500 workers were on strike at Amazon facilities in Bad Hersfeld, Leipzig, Rheinberg, Werne, Graben and Koblenz. | In Germany, Ver.di union spokesman Thomas Voss said some 2,500 workers were on strike at Amazon facilities in Bad Hersfeld, Leipzig, Rheinberg, Werne, Graben and Koblenz. |
| In a warehouse near Piacenza, in northern Italy, some workers walked off the job to demand “dignified salaries.” | In a warehouse near Piacenza, in northern Italy, some workers walked off the job to demand “dignified salaries.” |
| The German union has been leading a push since 2013 for higher pay for some 12,000 workers in Germany, arguing Amazon employees receive lower wages than others in retail and mail-order jobs. Amazon says its distribution warehouses in Germany are logistics centers and employees earn relatively high wages for that industry. | The German union has been leading a push since 2013 for higher pay for some 12,000 workers in Germany, arguing Amazon employees receive lower wages than others in retail and mail-order jobs. Amazon says its distribution warehouses in Germany are logistics centers and employees earn relatively high wages for that industry. |
| The strikes in Germany are expected to end Saturday. | The strikes in Germany are expected to end Saturday. |
| The Italian action, a one-day strike, was hailed by one of the nation’s umbrella union leaders, the UIL’s Carmelo Barbagallo, as having “enormous symbolic value because it’s clear that progress, innovation and modernity can’t come at the expense and the interests of workers.” | The Italian action, a one-day strike, was hailed by one of the nation’s umbrella union leaders, the UIL’s Carmelo Barbagallo, as having “enormous symbolic value because it’s clear that progress, innovation and modernity can’t come at the expense and the interests of workers.” |
| Here are more photos, from the city of Leipzig today: | Here are more photos, from the city of Leipzig today: |
| If you are risking Black Friday, know your rights! | If you are risking Black Friday, know your rights! |
| Hannah Maundrell, Editor in Chief of money.co.uk, explains: | Hannah Maundrell, Editor in Chief of money.co.uk, explains: |
| “Be a savvy shopper instead of a bargain hunter. Work out a plan of attack: make a list, set a budget and hunt for the cheapest place to buy. Never checkout without checking if you can save even more with a voucher code – often found by signing up to newsletters or on retailer’s social media sites. | “Be a savvy shopper instead of a bargain hunter. Work out a plan of attack: make a list, set a budget and hunt for the cheapest place to buy. Never checkout without checking if you can save even more with a voucher code – often found by signing up to newsletters or on retailer’s social media sites. |
| If you buy something online which you find cheaper elsewhere next week, don’t worry, you have 14 days to return it and get a full refund no questions asked. | If you buy something online which you find cheaper elsewhere next week, don’t worry, you have 14 days to return it and get a full refund no questions asked. |
| “Double check your refund rights before you part with your cash and if you’re buying something that costs over £100, pay with a credit card because you can go to your credit card company for a refund if something goes wrong. | “Double check your refund rights before you part with your cash and if you’re buying something that costs over £100, pay with a credit card because you can go to your credit card company for a refund if something goes wrong. |
| The drop in UK consumer confidence comes as people in America and the rest of Europe are feeling more optimistic. | The drop in UK consumer confidence comes as people in America and the rest of Europe are feeling more optimistic. |
| This chart, from Kallum Pickering of Berenberg, shows how UK consumer morale has fallen behind other advanced economies recently: | This chart, from Kallum Pickering of Berenberg, shows how UK consumer morale has fallen behind other advanced economies recently: |
| Pickering says: | Pickering says: |
| After eight years of a recovery that had occasionally been punctured by the euro crisis, a hiccup in emerging markets and gyrations in oil prices, households are becoming increasingly confident. Consumer confidence in the US and the Eurozone has risen above pre-Lehman peaks, with the Brexit-stricken UK serving as the exception to the rule. | After eight years of a recovery that had occasionally been punctured by the euro crisis, a hiccup in emerging markets and gyrations in oil prices, households are becoming increasingly confident. Consumer confidence in the US and the Eurozone has risen above pre-Lehman peaks, with the Brexit-stricken UK serving as the exception to the rule. |
| Even in the UK, where households are suffering from a temporary real wage squeeze due to the Brexit-related drop in trade-weighted sterling and the resulting rise in import costs, consumer confidence remains broadly in line with its long-term average. | Even in the UK, where households are suffering from a temporary real wage squeeze due to the Brexit-related drop in trade-weighted sterling and the resulting rise in import costs, consumer confidence remains broadly in line with its long-term average. |
| Economist Sam Tombs has analysed this morning’s mortgage approval figures, and concluded that the market is cooling.... | Economist Sam Tombs has analysed this morning’s mortgage approval figures, and concluded that the market is cooling.... |
| And so the downturn in mortgage lending begins. Approvals by the main banks down 2.6% m/m in Oct. Leading indicators point to bigger falls ahead: pic.twitter.com/6cnbJpVjCX | And so the downturn in mortgage lending begins. Approvals by the main banks down 2.6% m/m in Oct. Leading indicators point to bigger falls ahead: pic.twitter.com/6cnbJpVjCX |
| Despite the entertaining lack of a rush on Oxford Street at 7am, Currys PC World says its having its busiest Black Friday ever - on the Internet. | Despite the entertaining lack of a rush on Oxford Street at 7am, Currys PC World says its having its busiest Black Friday ever - on the Internet. |
| Online traffic via mobile devices is up 14% on last year, apparently, with TV and gaming consoles particularly popular. | Online traffic via mobile devices is up 14% on last year, apparently, with TV and gaming consoles particularly popular. |
| Robert Gordon, CEO of Hitachi Capital, isn’t surprised that UK consumers are more pessimistic: | Robert Gordon, CEO of Hitachi Capital, isn’t surprised that UK consumers are more pessimistic: |
| “Job security, stagnating pay and rising inflation are all putting the squeeze on consumers, so it’s no surprise that consumer confidence has dipped to a new low | “Job security, stagnating pay and rising inflation are all putting the squeeze on consumers, so it’s no surprise that consumer confidence has dipped to a new low |
| Black Friday couldn’t have come quickly enough for retailers, and it will be interesting to see if the weekend’s sales are as robust this year as they have been in previous years. | Black Friday couldn’t have come quickly enough for retailers, and it will be interesting to see if the weekend’s sales are as robust this year as they have been in previous years. |
| The Financial Times has spotted that UK households withdrew money from their tax-free savings accounts at the fastest rate on record in October. | The Financial Times has spotted that UK households withdrew money from their tax-free savings accounts at the fastest rate on record in October. |
| It’s another sign that people are feeling the pinch, as falling real wages continue to bite. | It’s another sign that people are feeling the pinch, as falling real wages continue to bite. |
| The FT’s Nicholas Megaw explains: | The FT’s Nicholas Megaw explains: |
| New data from UK Finance suggest households have been saving less and borrowing more in an effort to maintain spending habits in the face of rising prices and falling real wages. | New data from UK Finance suggest households have been saving less and borrowing more in an effort to maintain spending habits in the face of rising prices and falling real wages. |
| The total amount held in cash ISA accounts fell by £1.5bn, the sixth straight month of declines and the biggest monthly withdrawal on record in data going back to 2006. | The total amount held in cash ISA accounts fell by £1.5bn, the sixth straight month of declines and the biggest monthly withdrawal on record in data going back to 2006. |
| UK households tap savings at fastest rate ever https://t.co/85L82AWgzP | UK households tap savings at fastest rate ever https://t.co/85L82AWgzP |