This article is from the source 'guardian' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.

You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2017/nov/24/uk-consumer-confidence-brexit-bank-of-england-markets-black-friday-business-live

The article has changed 15 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.

Version 4 Version 5
UK consumer confidence hits lowest level since Brexit vote, but German business confidence soars - business live UK consumer confidence hits lowest level since Brexit vote, but German business confidence soars - business live
(about 1 hour later)
If you are risking Black Friday, know your rights!
Hannah Maundrell, Editor in Chief of money.co.uk, explains:
“Be a savvy shopper instead of a bargain hunter. Work out a plan of attack: make a list, set a budget and hunt for the cheapest place to buy. Never checkout without checking if you can save even more with a voucher code – often found by signing up to newsletters or on retailer’s social media sites.
If you buy something online which you find cheaper elsewhere next week, don’t worry, you have 14 days to return it and get a full refund no questions asked.
“Double check your refund rights before you part with your cash and if you’re buying something that costs over £100, pay with a credit card because you can go to your credit card company for a refund if something goes wrong.
The drop in UK consumer confidence comes as people in America and the rest of Europe are feeling more optimistic.
This chart, from Kallum Pickering of Berenberg, shows how UK consumer morale has fallen behind other advanced economies recently:
Pickering says:
After eight years of a recovery that had occasionally been punctured by the euro crisis, a hiccup in emerging markets and gyrations in oil prices, households are becoming increasingly confident. Consumer confidence in the US and the Eurozone has risen above pre-Lehman peaks, with the Brexit-stricken UK serving as the exception to the rule.
Even in the UK, where households are suffering from a temporary real wage squeeze due to the Brexit-related drop in trade-weighted sterling and the resulting rise in import costs, consumer confidence remains broadly in line with its long-term average.
Economist Sam Tombs has analysed this morning’s mortgage approval figures, and concluded that the market is cooling....Economist Sam Tombs has analysed this morning’s mortgage approval figures, and concluded that the market is cooling....
And so the downturn in mortgage lending begins. Approvals by the main banks down 2.6% m/m in Oct. Leading indicators point to bigger falls ahead: pic.twitter.com/6cnbJpVjCXAnd so the downturn in mortgage lending begins. Approvals by the main banks down 2.6% m/m in Oct. Leading indicators point to bigger falls ahead: pic.twitter.com/6cnbJpVjCX
Despite the entertaining lack of a rush on Oxford Street at 7am, Currys PC World says its having its busiest Black Friday ever - on the Internet.Despite the entertaining lack of a rush on Oxford Street at 7am, Currys PC World says its having its busiest Black Friday ever - on the Internet.
Online traffic via mobile devices is up 14% on last year, apparently, with TV and gaming consoles particularly popular.Online traffic via mobile devices is up 14% on last year, apparently, with TV and gaming consoles particularly popular.
Robert Gordon, CEO of Hitachi Capital, isn’t surprised that UK consumers are more pessimistic:Robert Gordon, CEO of Hitachi Capital, isn’t surprised that UK consumers are more pessimistic:
“Job security, stagnating pay and rising inflation are all putting the squeeze on consumers, so it’s no surprise that consumer confidence has dipped to a new low“Job security, stagnating pay and rising inflation are all putting the squeeze on consumers, so it’s no surprise that consumer confidence has dipped to a new low
Black Friday couldn’t have come quickly enough for retailers, and it will be interesting to see if the weekend’s sales are as robust this year as they have been in previous years.Black Friday couldn’t have come quickly enough for retailers, and it will be interesting to see if the weekend’s sales are as robust this year as they have been in previous years.
The Financial Times has spotted that UK households withdrew money from their tax-free savings accounts at the fastest rate on record in October.The Financial Times has spotted that UK households withdrew money from their tax-free savings accounts at the fastest rate on record in October.
It’s another sign that people are feeling the pinch, as falling real wages continue to bite.It’s another sign that people are feeling the pinch, as falling real wages continue to bite.
The FT’s Nicholas Megaw explains:The FT’s Nicholas Megaw explains:
New data from UK Finance suggest households have been saving less and borrowing more in an effort to maintain spending habits in the face of rising prices and falling real wages.New data from UK Finance suggest households have been saving less and borrowing more in an effort to maintain spending habits in the face of rising prices and falling real wages.
The total amount held in cash ISA accounts fell by £1.5bn, the sixth straight month of declines and the biggest monthly withdrawal on record in data going back to 2006.The total amount held in cash ISA accounts fell by £1.5bn, the sixth straight month of declines and the biggest monthly withdrawal on record in data going back to 2006.
UK households tap savings at fastest rate ever https://t.co/85L82AWgzPUK households tap savings at fastest rate ever https://t.co/85L82AWgzP
UK shoppers are right to be wary of Black Friday ‘bargains’, according to industry experts.UK shoppers are right to be wary of Black Friday ‘bargains’, according to industry experts.
Gemma Butler, associate director of marketing at the Chartered Institute of Marketing, says ‘wise consumers’ will keep their wallets and purses closed.Gemma Butler, associate director of marketing at the Chartered Institute of Marketing, says ‘wise consumers’ will keep their wallets and purses closed.
She warns:She warns:
Widespread price fluctuation, fraud risk and misreporting of prices are understandably of concern to consumers, whilst the pressure to offer incredible deals does seem to have led some marketers to abandon best practice.Widespread price fluctuation, fraud risk and misreporting of prices are understandably of concern to consumers, whilst the pressure to offer incredible deals does seem to have led some marketers to abandon best practice.
Black Friday? Slack Friday, more like.Black Friday? Slack Friday, more like.
It appears that UK shoppers (sensibly) decided to stay in bed rather than queue in the dark to pick up some bargains.It appears that UK shoppers (sensibly) decided to stay in bed rather than queue in the dark to pick up some bargains.
On Oxford Street in London, one solitary shopper hovered nervously outside Curry’s PC World, before the doors were flung open with a flourish.On Oxford Street in London, one solitary shopper hovered nervously outside Curry’s PC World, before the doors were flung open with a flourish.
And the doors are open.... the rush came and went (quickly) #BlackFriday @BBCLondonNews @BBC_HaveYourSay pic.twitter.com/jkUjFnhwMoAnd the doors are open.... the rush came and went (quickly) #BlackFriday @BBCLondonNews @BBC_HaveYourSay pic.twitter.com/jkUjFnhwMo
It’s a similar scene online, as my colleague Sarah Butler explains:It’s a similar scene online, as my colleague Sarah Butler explains:
The number of shoppers online between midnight and 7am dived 24% on last year according to e-commerce trends service PCA Predict after an 11% rise in shopping over the previous week.The number of shoppers online between midnight and 7am dived 24% on last year according to e-commerce trends service PCA Predict after an 11% rise in shopping over the previous week.
“This longer sales period has shifted the emphasis away from Black Friday being a major retail event in its own right, towards becoming part of a pre-Christmas mini season or “Golden Quarter” for retailers,” said Chris Boaz, ‎head of marketing of PCA Predict.“This longer sales period has shifted the emphasis away from Black Friday being a major retail event in its own right, towards becoming part of a pre-Christmas mini season or “Golden Quarter” for retailers,” said Chris Boaz, ‎head of marketing of PCA Predict.
Evidence of a slow start in the UK to the US-inspired discount day, was also seen on the high street as retail experts pointed empty stores at chains which had opened early to prepare for queues of bargain hunters.Evidence of a slow start in the UK to the US-inspired discount day, was also seen on the high street as retail experts pointed empty stores at chains which had opened early to prepare for queues of bargain hunters.
Quite a contrast with three years ago, when there were scuffles at branches of Tesco and Sainsbury as customers scrambled for a bargain.Quite a contrast with three years ago, when there were scuffles at branches of Tesco and Sainsbury as customers scrambled for a bargain.
High street chain Next doesn’t seem to be taking Black Friday terribly seriously either...High street chain Next doesn’t seem to be taking Black Friday terribly seriously either...
Don’t panic! Next investors it’s just old summer stock on sale on Black Friday in my local store. pic.twitter.com/3LNuti1nsGDon’t panic! Next investors it’s just old summer stock on sale on Black Friday in my local store. pic.twitter.com/3LNuti1nsG
Not sure why Next even bothered blowing up balloons given halfheartedness of offers. Maybe deals are better in other stores... pic.twitter.com/i3gxn9ec4NNot sure why Next even bothered blowing up balloons given halfheartedness of offers. Maybe deals are better in other stores... pic.twitter.com/i3gxn9ec4N
Just in: UK mortgage approvals have hit their lowest level since September 2016.Just in: UK mortgage approvals have hit their lowest level since September 2016.
Banks approved 40,488 loans for house purchases in October, down from 41,576 in September.Banks approved 40,488 loans for house purchases in October, down from 41,576 in September.
However, there was a big jump in the number of households who remortgaged their homes, ahead of this month’s interest rate rise.However, there was a big jump in the number of households who remortgaged their homes, ahead of this month’s interest rate rise.
UK mortgage approvals drop to 40,488 in October (41,576 prev.) but a big jump in remortgages to a 9-year high of 34,000 as households anticipated BoE interest rate increase pic.twitter.com/nKZLaYW89FUK mortgage approvals drop to 40,488 in October (41,576 prev.) but a big jump in remortgages to a 9-year high of 34,000 as households anticipated BoE interest rate increase pic.twitter.com/nKZLaYW89F
Credit card lending growth also slowed, , in another sign that UK people are being more cautious about economic prospects.Credit card lending growth also slowed, , in another sign that UK people are being more cautious about economic prospects.
German business confidence has jumped again, in a sign that the European recovery is sizzling away.German business confidence has jumped again, in a sign that the European recovery is sizzling away.
In a stark contrast with Britain’s worried consumers, bosses in Europe’s largest economy are very upbeat despite the collapse of coalition talks this month.In a stark contrast with Britain’s worried consumers, bosses in Europe’s largest economy are very upbeat despite the collapse of coalition talks this month.
The monthly gauge of German business confidence leaped to 117.5 this month, the highest level in many decades.The monthly gauge of German business confidence leaped to 117.5 this month, the highest level in many decades.
Firms’ expectations of current conditions dipped a little, but they’re very optimistic about their future prospects.Firms’ expectations of current conditions dipped a little, but they’re very optimistic about their future prospects.
Ifo chief Clemens Fuest says:Ifo chief Clemens Fuest says:
“Sentiment among German businesses is very strong,”“Sentiment among German businesses is very strong,”
“This was due to far more optimistic business expectations. The German economy is on track for a boom.”“This was due to far more optimistic business expectations. The German economy is on track for a boom.”
Better than expected November German business confidence report from IFO. Business climate rose to 117.5 in November from 116.8 in October on the back of an improvement in the expectations component. pic.twitter.com/CJedTIyZrrBetter than expected November German business confidence report from IFO. Business climate rose to 117.5 in November from 116.8 in October on the back of an improvement in the expectations component. pic.twitter.com/CJedTIyZrr
The Ifo (Germany's most comprehensive business survey) knows no political crisis. https://t.co/SjaucHLETl pic.twitter.com/F3FcFyfNcmThe Ifo (Germany's most comprehensive business survey) knows no political crisis. https://t.co/SjaucHLETl pic.twitter.com/F3FcFyfNcm
The German IFO index is at its highest level since October 1969. Expectations highest in 7 years ‘only’. pic.twitter.com/Mp6zokKuP1The German IFO index is at its highest level since October 1969. Expectations highest in 7 years ‘only’. pic.twitter.com/Mp6zokKuP1
UK retailer Sports Direct has called a shareholder meeting, to vote on whether to pay £11m to the brother of founder Mike Ashley.UK retailer Sports Direct has called a shareholder meeting, to vote on whether to pay £11m to the brother of founder Mike Ashley.
An internal review of links between Sports Direct and John Ashley has concluded that he had actually been underpaid for several years.An internal review of links between Sports Direct and John Ashley has concluded that he had actually been underpaid for several years.
John Ashley’s company, Barlin, was paid by Sports Direct to handle deliveries overseas. That arrangement was ended earlier this year, amid concern over corporate governance at Sports Direct.John Ashley’s company, Barlin, was paid by Sports Direct to handle deliveries overseas. That arrangement was ended earlier this year, amid concern over corporate governance at Sports Direct.
However, the review into the links found that John Ashley had unfairly missed out on significant bonuses and pay awards.However, the review into the links found that John Ashley had unfairly missed out on significant bonuses and pay awards.
Mike Ashley plans to abstain on the vote, and says he actually expects independent shareholders to oppose the payout. But to him, it’s a matter of principle....Mike Ashley plans to abstain on the vote, and says he actually expects independent shareholders to oppose the payout. But to him, it’s a matter of principle....
It’s important for me to say that if John had owed £1 to Sports Direct, I would have ensured any sum was repaid in full. I hope shareholders will therefore be reassured that everything is in order and that any concerns are laid to rest.”It’s important for me to say that if John had owed £1 to Sports Direct, I would have ensured any sum was repaid in full. I hope shareholders will therefore be reassured that everything is in order and that any concerns are laid to rest.”
The meeting is on 13th December, at Sports Direct’s headquarters in Shirebrook.The meeting is on 13th December, at Sports Direct’s headquarters in Shirebrook.
There’s not much drama in the European stock markets this morning.There’s not much drama in the European stock markets this morning.
Britain’s FTSE 100 has dropped by 15 points, or 0.2%.Britain’s FTSE 100 has dropped by 15 points, or 0.2%.
With excellent timing, Bank of England policymaker Silvana Tenreyro has said that future interest rate moves will largely be dictated by Brexit.With excellent timing, Bank of England policymaker Silvana Tenreyro has said that future interest rate moves will largely be dictated by Brexit.
In an interview with Bloomberg, Tenreyro explained that nothing could be ruled out in the Brexit era - a hint that rate cuts or hikes could be on the agenda.In an interview with Bloomberg, Tenreyro explained that nothing could be ruled out in the Brexit era - a hint that rate cuts or hikes could be on the agenda.
“People up until recently thought that Brexit meant monetary policy would remain highly accommodative and interest rates would stay low forever.“People up until recently thought that Brexit meant monetary policy would remain highly accommodative and interest rates would stay low forever.
But Brexit might present other challenges that require the opposite. It might require an adjustment either way, and it’s not obvious. That’s something to be prepared for.”But Brexit might present other challenges that require the opposite. It might require an adjustment either way, and it’s not obvious. That’s something to be prepared for.”
Tenreyro, who joined the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee this summer, also explained that the MPC doesn’t know how the economy will react to Britain’s exit from the EU.Tenreyro, who joined the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee this summer, also explained that the MPC doesn’t know how the economy will react to Britain’s exit from the EU.
“Brexit will likely affect the supply side of the economy,.“Brexit will likely affect the supply side of the economy,.
“We don’t know how the demand side will respond. It depends on how households and companies react to the new normal, to the new potential. Shocks can hit the economy one way or the other and we will have to respond to that.”“We don’t know how the demand side will respond. It depends on how households and companies react to the new normal, to the new potential. Shocks can hit the economy one way or the other and we will have to respond to that.”
Exclusive: BOE's Silvana Tenreyro rules out nothing on interest rates in U.K.'s Brexit-era economy https://t.co/9JSdlI9L8x via @jillianfward @fergalob pic.twitter.com/3P2oMAaWK4Exclusive: BOE's Silvana Tenreyro rules out nothing on interest rates in U.K.'s Brexit-era economy https://t.co/9JSdlI9L8x via @jillianfward @fergalob pic.twitter.com/3P2oMAaWK4
Tenreyro - 2 more hikes over 3y seems reasonable, but Brexit means @bankofengland has to be ready for shocks in either direction. Growth will be modest, but she sees signs of domestic CPI pressure. https://t.co/1quTaRc3p6Tenreyro - 2 more hikes over 3y seems reasonable, but Brexit means @bankofengland has to be ready for shocks in either direction. Growth will be modest, but she sees signs of domestic CPI pressure. https://t.co/1quTaRc3p6
UK consumers won’t feel any more confident after reading today’s front pages.UK consumers won’t feel any more confident after reading today’s front pages.
Several newspapers are leading on yesterday’s warning that Britain face a two-decade long pay squeeze. The Institute for Fiscal Studies reckons that we will be earning around £750 per year less in 2022-23 than in 2007-08, in real terms (adjusted for inflation).Several newspapers are leading on yesterday’s warning that Britain face a two-decade long pay squeeze. The Institute for Fiscal Studies reckons that we will be earning around £750 per year less in 2022-23 than in 2007-08, in real terms (adjusted for inflation).
As economics editor Larry Elliott put it:As economics editor Larry Elliott put it:
Unless the economy performs better than expected, the IFS now thinks Britain is in danger of losing not just one, but getting on for two decades of earnings growth. This would be the equivalent of earnings being lower when John Major left Downing Street in 1997 than when Margaret Thatcher began 18 years of Conservative rule in 1979. Historically, it is without precedent.Unless the economy performs better than expected, the IFS now thinks Britain is in danger of losing not just one, but getting on for two decades of earnings growth. This would be the equivalent of earnings being lower when John Major left Downing Street in 1997 than when Margaret Thatcher began 18 years of Conservative rule in 1979. Historically, it is without precedent.
UK prospects:Wage growth-grimGrowth-grimDebt-grim-And then #BrexitTomorrow's Guardian pic.twitter.com/pqxy2NgC1gUK prospects:Wage growth-grimGrowth-grimDebt-grim-And then #BrexitTomorrow's Guardian pic.twitter.com/pqxy2NgC1g
THE INDEPENDENT: "Britons face two decades without a pay rise" #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/4WWrVfIE4oTHE INDEPENDENT: "Britons face two decades without a pay rise" #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/4WWrVfIE4o
THE TIMES: "Adverts fund paedophile habits" #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/gLaLxXRtRsTHE TIMES: "Adverts fund paedophile habits" #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/gLaLxXRtRs
Today’s survey shows a “big decline” in UK consumer confidence this month, according to Stephen Harmston, head of YouGov reports.Today’s survey shows a “big decline” in UK consumer confidence this month, according to Stephen Harmston, head of YouGov reports.
Harmston adds:Harmston adds:
There have been falls across the board – from how secure people feel in their jobs to what they think house prices will do – and the increased cost of living has put a big squeeze on people’s household finances.There have been falls across the board – from how secure people feel in their jobs to what they think house prices will do – and the increased cost of living has put a big squeeze on people’s household finances.
Overall, these are a gloomy set of consumer confidence figures.”Overall, these are a gloomy set of consumer confidence figures.”
This chart confirms that people are becoming edgier, particularly about their own household finances.This chart confirms that people are becoming edgier, particularly about their own household finances.
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.
UK consumers are feeling at their gloomiest since the immediate aftermath of the EU referendum last June.UK consumers are feeling at their gloomiest since the immediate aftermath of the EU referendum last June.
Pessimism is mounting over household finances, property prices, job security and business activity, according to a new survey from YouGov and the Centre for Economics and Business Research.Pessimism is mounting over household finances, property prices, job security and business activity, according to a new survey from YouGov and the Centre for Economics and Business Research.
Their monthly index of consumer confidence dropped sharply this month, from 109.3 to just 106.6.Their monthly index of consumer confidence dropped sharply this month, from 109.3 to just 106.6.
That’s the same level as immediately after the Brexit vote, and the first monthly fall since June 2017.That’s the same level as immediately after the Brexit vote, and the first monthly fall since June 2017.
Christian Jaccarini, economist at the CEBR, says consumer confidence suffered a series of blows this month, including the Bank of England’s decision to raise interest rates to 0.5%.Christian Jaccarini, economist at the CEBR, says consumer confidence suffered a series of blows this month, including the Bank of England’s decision to raise interest rates to 0.5%.
The first interest rate hike in over a decade triggered fears that higher borrowing costs will compound the inflation-induced squeeze on household incomes.The first interest rate hike in over a decade triggered fears that higher borrowing costs will compound the inflation-induced squeeze on household incomes.
Simultaneously, higher rates and a housing market in slowdown are warning signals for many homeowners, who fear house price growth may be further dampened. With these economic headwinds set to persist, and the OBR forecasting a weaker growth, households are understandably worried.”Simultaneously, higher rates and a housing market in slowdown are warning signals for many homeowners, who fear house price growth may be further dampened. With these economic headwinds set to persist, and the OBR forecasting a weaker growth, households are understandably worried.”
With these storm clouds gathering, shoppers may be reluctant to splash out in the sales today. That would be a blow to retailers who are pinning their hopes on a good Black Friday.With these storm clouds gathering, shoppers may be reluctant to splash out in the sales today. That would be a blow to retailers who are pinning their hopes on a good Black Friday.
Here’s the agendaHere’s the agenda
9am GMT: German IFO survey of business confidence9am GMT: German IFO survey of business confidence
9.30am GMT: UK mortgage approvals numbers for October, from UK Finance (formerly the BBA)9.30am GMT: UK mortgage approvals numbers for October, from UK Finance (formerly the BBA)
2.45pm GMT: US manufacturing and services PMI reports2.45pm GMT: US manufacturing and services PMI reports