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| Brexit divorce bill estimated at between £35bn and £39bn – live updates | Brexit divorce bill estimated at between £35bn and £39bn – live updates |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| Sadiq Khan has revealed he has commissioned his own Brexit impact papers for the capital after the furore surrounding the government’s own assessments, which David Davis said did not exist after all. | |
| The London Evening Standard reports that the mayor of London has commissioned reports by independent experts Cambridge Econometrics, and quotes him as saying: | |
| It is outrageous that the Government either failed to properly consider the impact of Brexit on Britain’s economy, or are refusing to release their analysis. | |
| If it’s the former then I question their competence. If it is the latter then I question whether they have something to hide. | |
| We need to know the impact of different Brexit scenarios on our economy in order to deliver a Brexit deal that protects jobs and growth. | |
| Campaigns for UK citizens in Europe and EU citizens in the UK have branded today’s deal “a double disaster”. Jane Golding, the chair of British in Europe, said: | Campaigns for UK citizens in Europe and EU citizens in the UK have branded today’s deal “a double disaster”. Jane Golding, the chair of British in Europe, said: |
| This deal is even worse than we expected. After 18 months of wrangling, the UK and EU have sold 4.5 million people down the river in a grubby bargain that will have a severe impact on ordinary people’s ability to live their lives as we do now. | This deal is even worse than we expected. After 18 months of wrangling, the UK and EU have sold 4.5 million people down the river in a grubby bargain that will have a severe impact on ordinary people’s ability to live their lives as we do now. |
| This is a double disaster for British people living in Europe. At the moment, not only is it unclear whether we keep our automatic residency rights, but it looks like we can also kiss goodbye to continuing free movement beyond any agreed transition period – which so many of us who work across Europe rely on to support our families. | This is a double disaster for British people living in Europe. At the moment, not only is it unclear whether we keep our automatic residency rights, but it looks like we can also kiss goodbye to continuing free movement beyond any agreed transition period – which so many of us who work across Europe rely on to support our families. |
| On the other side of the argument, the hard Brexit supporter, Nigel Farage, is equally unhappy. | On the other side of the argument, the hard Brexit supporter, Nigel Farage, is equally unhappy. |
| Farage "Frankly, there have been no negotiations. We've waited months and months and we've agreed to all the things that the EU insisted on". | Farage "Frankly, there have been no negotiations. We've waited months and months and we've agreed to all the things that the EU insisted on". |
| Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, warned that the next phase of Brexit talks, on the future, would be harder than the divorce. “Not everyone has yet well understood that there are points that are non-negotiable for the EU,” he said reiterating there would be no watering down or of the EU’s four freedoms (goods, services, people and capital) or decision-making autonomy. | Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, warned that the next phase of Brexit talks, on the future, would be harder than the divorce. “Not everyone has yet well understood that there are points that are non-negotiable for the EU,” he said reiterating there would be no watering down or of the EU’s four freedoms (goods, services, people and capital) or decision-making autonomy. |
| The commission had studied Theresa May’s red lines, he said, and concluded that the only option for the UK was a free-trade agreement modelled on the deal the EU struck with Canada in 2016, an arrangement that would mark a major retreat from the current level of economic integration. | The commission had studied Theresa May’s red lines, he said, and concluded that the only option for the UK was a free-trade agreement modelled on the deal the EU struck with Canada in 2016, an arrangement that would mark a major retreat from the current level of economic integration. |
| The Green party reacts to the announcement of a divorce agreement having been reached by calling for a referendum on whether or not to accept the final Brexit deal struck by the government. | The Green party reacts to the announcement of a divorce agreement having been reached by calling for a referendum on whether or not to accept the final Brexit deal struck by the government. |
| And yet more from Germany, where the Süddeutsche Zeitung newspaper says: | And yet more from Germany, where the Süddeutsche Zeitung newspaper says: |
| The message on this Friday in Brussels: it’s not going to get any easier – on the contrary. The EU is going to stay tough. Whether it can keep a united front remains to be seen. Until now, all 27 EU states had a common interest; when it comes to a deal on the future relationship, the situation is different. Especially economically strong nations, like the Netherlands or Germany, have different interests to, for example, Greece or Bulgaria. | The message on this Friday in Brussels: it’s not going to get any easier – on the contrary. The EU is going to stay tough. Whether it can keep a united front remains to be seen. Until now, all 27 EU states had a common interest; when it comes to a deal on the future relationship, the situation is different. Especially economically strong nations, like the Netherlands or Germany, have different interests to, for example, Greece or Bulgaria. |
| And Die Welt writes: | And Die Welt writes: |
| May’s government team remains as torn as before on what Brexit is actually meant to look like. The cabinet only wants to decide at the end of the year on what it wants to see after 29 March 2019. A model à la Norway, with access to the EU single market, which would however also involve free movement of EU citizens? A no-go with the hardliners. A trade deal à la Canada? That would be a blow for the British finance industry, which would no longer have barrier-free access to the European market. | May’s government team remains as torn as before on what Brexit is actually meant to look like. The cabinet only wants to decide at the end of the year on what it wants to see after 29 March 2019. A model à la Norway, with access to the EU single market, which would however also involve free movement of EU citizens? A no-go with the hardliners. A trade deal à la Canada? That would be a blow for the British finance industry, which would no longer have barrier-free access to the European market. |
| Some more reaction from Ireland, where the opposition leader has been discussing the course on which he believes today’s agreement has set the UK. | Some more reaction from Ireland, where the opposition leader has been discussing the course on which he believes today’s agreement has set the UK. |
| BREAKING: Ireland's opposition leader says Britain heading for soft Brexit. "From the British perspective, it seems to me we are edging towards a soft Brexit, something the Brexiteers may not want to here, but there are certain realities dawning" - Micheal Martin | BREAKING: Ireland's opposition leader says Britain heading for soft Brexit. "From the British perspective, it seems to me we are edging towards a soft Brexit, something the Brexiteers may not want to here, but there are certain realities dawning" - Micheal Martin |
| Fianna Fail leader Micheal Martin - believes Northern Ireland, wrost performing economy in the UK can now be made a special economic zone." a sense now that NI might get the best of the both worlds – access to EU and Ireland" | Fianna Fail leader Micheal Martin - believes Northern Ireland, wrost performing economy in the UK can now be made a special economic zone." a sense now that NI might get the best of the both worlds – access to EU and Ireland" |
| Fianna Fail leader Micheal Martin: "A lot of Irish biz ... cheddar cheese you name it, depend on a good outcome on the second stage of negotiations between Britain and EU" - interviewed by RTE Sean O'Rourke | Fianna Fail leader Micheal Martin: "A lot of Irish biz ... cheddar cheese you name it, depend on a good outcome on the second stage of negotiations between Britain and EU" - interviewed by RTE Sean O'Rourke |
| Michael Martin admits there are "irreconcilibles" in today's deal. Main one on Irish front is between paragraph 49 and par 50 - 49 guarantees alignment N-S, 50 guarantees East-West. If UK out of CU and SM, how can u guarantee par 50? | Michael Martin admits there are "irreconcilibles" in today's deal. Main one on Irish front is between paragraph 49 and par 50 - 49 guarantees alignment N-S, 50 guarantees East-West. If UK out of CU and SM, how can u guarantee par 50? |
| On Tory WhatsApp groups, everyone is praising Theresa May. Today’s agreement has had the unusual effect of pleasing some hardline Brexiters. | On Tory WhatsApp groups, everyone is praising Theresa May. Today’s agreement has had the unusual effect of pleasing some hardline Brexiters. |
| Nadine Dorries has tweeted a meme from the Institute of Directors doing the rounds on Twitter that: “This deal is an early Christmas present for businesses in the UK.” | Nadine Dorries has tweeted a meme from the Institute of Directors doing the rounds on Twitter that: “This deal is an early Christmas present for businesses in the UK.” |
| Those on the other side of the argument, such as Dominic Grieve and Anna Soubry, also think this is a potential win for them. The latter tells me: | Those on the other side of the argument, such as Dominic Grieve and Anna Soubry, also think this is a potential win for them. The latter tells me: |
| This is an important moment because it is a move in the right direction to a much more sensible, softer Brexit. I don’t care about the words we use - I’m interested in the benefits it delivers and this is a move towards delivering the benefits of the customs union and single market and that is good news for British business. | This is an important moment because it is a move in the right direction to a much more sensible, softer Brexit. I don’t care about the words we use - I’m interested in the benefits it delivers and this is a move towards delivering the benefits of the customs union and single market and that is good news for British business. |
| She said, ultimately, she doesn’t believe the UK can get a bespoke deal, so it will be “more EFTA or WTO”. And she argues that Britain must be pushing for the former. | She said, ultimately, she doesn’t believe the UK can get a bespoke deal, so it will be “more EFTA or WTO”. And she argues that Britain must be pushing for the former. |
| There was only one question on the ballot paper - leave or remain. We are leaving the EU, let’s do it in best way to bring country back together. And that means trying to achieve benefits of single market and customs union. | There was only one question on the ballot paper - leave or remain. We are leaving the EU, let’s do it in best way to bring country back together. And that means trying to achieve benefits of single market and customs union. |
| Meanwhile a Labour MP tells me: “Now is the moment for the Labour party to definitively say that we are for a soft Brexit and for staying in the customs union. Theresa May has conceded the principle of regulatory alignment - rather than spend months wasting time to say what we want- lets just say it now.” | Meanwhile a Labour MP tells me: “Now is the moment for the Labour party to definitively say that we are for a soft Brexit and for staying in the customs union. Theresa May has conceded the principle of regulatory alignment - rather than spend months wasting time to say what we want- lets just say it now.” |
| The Irish government’s chief whip has welcomed the Brexit/Irish border deal, saying it would be a huge step forward in keeping the frontier open. | The Irish government’s chief whip has welcomed the Brexit/Irish border deal, saying it would be a huge step forward in keeping the frontier open. |
| Joe McHugh, who represents the border constituency of Donegal in the Dail, said it was a positive day for people living on both sides of the 300-plus-mile border. | Joe McHugh, who represents the border constituency of Donegal in the Dail, said it was a positive day for people living on both sides of the 300-plus-mile border. |
| McHugh said the confirmation that checkpoints would not be reintroduced along the frontier with Northern Ireland would be welcomed by communities in both jurisdictions. | McHugh said the confirmation that checkpoints would not be reintroduced along the frontier with Northern Ireland would be welcomed by communities in both jurisdictions. |
| Ireland achieved all our goals in the phase one negotiations, including - crucially for people in this county - that there will be no hard border after Britain leaves the EU. | Ireland achieved all our goals in the phase one negotiations, including - crucially for people in this county - that there will be no hard border after Britain leaves the EU. |
| The agreement preserves the Common Travel Area and protects all the relationships agreed in the Good Friday Agreement. | The agreement preserves the Common Travel Area and protects all the relationships agreed in the Good Friday Agreement. |
| EU and UK negotiators reached an agreement overnight which took full account of border counties like Donegal. | EU and UK negotiators reached an agreement overnight which took full account of border counties like Donegal. |
| Britain’s divorce bill is estimated to be £35bn-£39bn (€40bn-€45bn), it has been disclosed. | Britain’s divorce bill is estimated to be £35bn-£39bn (€40bn-€45bn), it has been disclosed. |
| The UK will only pay if a wider withdrawal agreement is struck by Brexit day and there is swift agreement on a transition period. It includes the payment promised by Theresa May in her Florence speech, which she linked to a two-year “implementation period”, as she describes it. The EU is not linking the sum to the transition period, however. | The UK will only pay if a wider withdrawal agreement is struck by Brexit day and there is swift agreement on a transition period. It includes the payment promised by Theresa May in her Florence speech, which she linked to a two-year “implementation period”, as she describes it. The EU is not linking the sum to the transition period, however. |
| If the UK wants a transition period beyond 31 December 2020, when the current seven-year EU budget ends, it will have to pay more. The EU is also leaving open the question of whether or not it will seek additional funds in return for the transition period. The money will be paid over time rather than in a lump sum. | If the UK wants a transition period beyond 31 December 2020, when the current seven-year EU budget ends, it will have to pay more. The EU is also leaving open the question of whether or not it will seek additional funds in return for the transition period. The money will be paid over time rather than in a lump sum. |
| TUC general secretary, Frances O’Grady, said the news allowed the government to move on to discussions about what she said were the major issues: “How we get a good deal that protects workers’ rights, jobs and livelihoods.” | TUC general secretary, Frances O’Grady, said the news allowed the government to move on to discussions about what she said were the major issues: “How we get a good deal that protects workers’ rights, jobs and livelihoods.” |
| But she said it was “clear the government’s determination to leave the single market and customs unions is getting in the way”. O’Grady added: | But she said it was “clear the government’s determination to leave the single market and customs unions is getting in the way”. O’Grady added: |
| The government must drop its self-defeating red lines and put these options back on the table. And, before the next round of talks, we need a sea-change in the way the government acts. Ministers need to bring in the negotiating expertise of unions and employers. | The government must drop its self-defeating red lines and put these options back on the table. And, before the next round of talks, we need a sea-change in the way the government acts. Ministers need to bring in the negotiating expertise of unions and employers. |
| The Irish prime minister has pledged to be a “close friend” of Theresa May’s in the next stage of negotiations on the back of today’s agreement on the Irish border. | The Irish prime minister has pledged to be a “close friend” of Theresa May’s in the next stage of negotiations on the back of today’s agreement on the Irish border. |
| At a breakfast press conference in Dublin, Leo Varadkar said he was very keen that Britain gets deep and ambitious deal on trade because that would be good for Ireland too. | At a breakfast press conference in Dublin, Leo Varadkar said he was very keen that Britain gets deep and ambitious deal on trade because that would be good for Ireland too. |
| He said Theresa May “would have no closer friend” than Ireland during the phase two negotiations and he hoped the special deal struck for Northern Ireland would not come to pass because it would not be needed. | He said Theresa May “would have no closer friend” than Ireland during the phase two negotiations and he hoped the special deal struck for Northern Ireland would not come to pass because it would not be needed. |
| He admitted Anglo-Irish relations had been damaged by Brexit rows but believes that can be repaired quickly. | He admitted Anglo-Irish relations had been damaged by Brexit rows but believes that can be repaired quickly. |
| I’ll be very frank. Brexit by its nature has strained relations between Ireland and the UK, of course it has, how could it not. Our role now is to get through that. | I’ll be very frank. Brexit by its nature has strained relations between Ireland and the UK, of course it has, how could it not. Our role now is to get through that. |
| I actually think because of this agreement that we have today, because we have the guarantees and the assurances that we sought, Britain will have no closer friend than Ireland. | I actually think because of this agreement that we have today, because we have the guarantees and the assurances that we sought, Britain will have no closer friend than Ireland. |
| He described the deal as “a significant day” for Ireland and said he wanted to assure the people of Northern Ireland “here is no question of us trying to exploit Brexit as a means of moving to a United Ireland without consent”. | He described the deal as “a significant day” for Ireland and said he wanted to assure the people of Northern Ireland “here is no question of us trying to exploit Brexit as a means of moving to a United Ireland without consent”. |
| The difference between this deal and the deal agreed on Monday that the Democratic Unionist Party scuppered was mostly “stylistic” but involved on significant guarantee that there would be no border controls in the Irish Sea. | The difference between this deal and the deal agreed on Monday that the Democratic Unionist Party scuppered was mostly “stylistic” but involved on significant guarantee that there would be no border controls in the Irish Sea. |
| Varadkar confirmed he had not spoken to Arlene Foster since Monday and all talks were channeled through Brussels Brexit task force. | Varadkar confirmed he had not spoken to Arlene Foster since Monday and all talks were channeled through Brussels Brexit task force. |
| Foster has said she has won six guarantees in the deal but had not won everything she wanted and had “cautioned” the prime minister not to accept the deal. | Foster has said she has won six guarantees in the deal but had not won everything she wanted and had “cautioned” the prime minister not to accept the deal. |
| Informed sources said May had “no choice but to face the DUP down. The stakes were too big not to progress talks. But we know Arlene is happy”. | Informed sources said May had “no choice but to face the DUP down. The stakes were too big not to progress talks. But we know Arlene is happy”. |
| Foster welcomed that there would be no “red line” down the Irish Sea and a “clear confirmation” that there would be “no new regulatory barriers” between Northern Ireland and the UK. | Foster welcomed that there would be no “red line” down the Irish Sea and a “clear confirmation” that there would be “no new regulatory barriers” between Northern Ireland and the UK. |
| Earlier, Ireland’s deputy prime minister, Simon Coveney, had said the Irish border deal was a “relief” for “everybody in the country.” | Earlier, Ireland’s deputy prime minister, Simon Coveney, had said the Irish border deal was a “relief” for “everybody in the country.” |
| Theresa May said the deal would guarantee there would be no barriers “north, south, east, west”. | Theresa May said the deal would guarantee there would be no barriers “north, south, east, west”. |
| Reaction is now coming in from within the EU27 nations. Joachim Lang, the director of the Association of German Industry (BDI), warns London not to have “any false illusions”. | Reaction is now coming in from within the EU27 nations. Joachim Lang, the director of the Association of German Industry (BDI), warns London not to have “any false illusions”. |
| The hardest part of the negotiations still lies ahead of us. Industry needs clarity on the future relationship at the earliest opportunity. The negotiations have to step up a gear. London must not have any false illusions. Our businesses must know soon what model Downing Street envisions for the future deal and what the transition phase on the way there will look like. | The hardest part of the negotiations still lies ahead of us. Industry needs clarity on the future relationship at the earliest opportunity. The negotiations have to step up a gear. London must not have any false illusions. Our businesses must know soon what model Downing Street envisions for the future deal and what the transition phase on the way there will look like. |
| In an op-ed, the leading German financial newspaper, Handelsblatt, is more hopeful. It says: | In an op-ed, the leading German financial newspaper, Handelsblatt, is more hopeful. It says: |
| It is indeed now more likely that a disorderly Brexit without divorce settlement can be avoided. The threat of the traffic of goods and people between the British Isles and the continent collapsing overnight on 29 March 2019 appears to have been banished. | It is indeed now more likely that a disorderly Brexit without divorce settlement can be avoided. The threat of the traffic of goods and people between the British Isles and the continent collapsing overnight on 29 March 2019 appears to have been banished. |
| Somewhat later than his senior cabinet colleagues, the foreign secretary - a prominent Leave campaigner - has expressed his support for the prime minister after the announcement that the divorce deal has been agreed. | Somewhat later than his senior cabinet colleagues, the foreign secretary - a prominent Leave campaigner - has expressed his support for the prime minister after the announcement that the divorce deal has been agreed. |
| Congratulations to PM for her determination in getting today's deal. We now aim to forge a deep and special partnership with our European friends and allies while remaining true to the referendum result - taking back control of our laws, money and borders for the whole of the UK. | Congratulations to PM for her determination in getting today's deal. We now aim to forge a deep and special partnership with our European friends and allies while remaining true to the referendum result - taking back control of our laws, money and borders for the whole of the UK. |
| The guarantee there will be no regulatory barriers between Northern Ireland and the UK is not just welcome to the DUP it is also hugely significant for Ireland. The UK is Ireland’s single biggest export market with annual trade including sales of beef, dairy, pharma and services worth around £50bn a year. | The guarantee there will be no regulatory barriers between Northern Ireland and the UK is not just welcome to the DUP it is also hugely significant for Ireland. The UK is Ireland’s single biggest export market with annual trade including sales of beef, dairy, pharma and services worth around £50bn a year. |