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| Brexit divorce bill estimated at between £35bn and £39bn – Politics live | |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| As it stands, Gibraltar will not enjoy the cushion a transition period, EU officials confirmed, and will drop out of the Single Market and the Customs Union when the UK leaves the bloc on 29 March 2019. | |
| EU officials confirmed the Guardian’s story last month that an arrangement over the future of the rock needs to be struck between Spain and the UK, if the transition arrangement is to be extended to Gibraltar. | |
| EU officials have made it clear that Theresa May’s suggestion that the transition period is in reality an implementation period, during which future arrangements such as customs checks could be introduced, is incorrect. There will be a “cliff edge” at the end of the transition period unless a future trade deal is in place by then, a senior EU official said. | |
| The Conservative former Brexit minister, David Jones, has warned the “full alignment” plan to maintain a soft Irish border could stop Britain signing free trade deals with other countries. He told BBC Radio 4’s World At One programme: | |
| The worry about that, of course, is that that could well relate to very important areas such as for example agriculture, which we would want to throw into the mix in negotiating a free trade agreement with a third country. | |
| And, if this were to persist, then it could severely handicap our ability to enter into those free trade agreements. | |
| He called for the issue to be refined in future negotiations, alongside the introduction of a cap for the divorce bill, claiming the “back of an envelope” figure mentioned so far could rise “considerably”. | |
| Ouch! MEPs are already dispelling claims that that the cost of withdrawing from the EU is likely to be less than £35bn (€40bn). | Ouch! MEPs are already dispelling claims that that the cost of withdrawing from the EU is likely to be less than £35bn (€40bn). |
| MEPs reached by the Guardian are saying it is impossible “at this stage” to really evaluate the Brexit divorce bill, suggesting today’s optimism is premature. | MEPs reached by the Guardian are saying it is impossible “at this stage” to really evaluate the Brexit divorce bill, suggesting today’s optimism is premature. |
| “It’s going to be more than €40bn for sure,” said the Greek MEP Giorgos Kyrtsos, who sits on the Economic and monetary affairs committee, which is regularly updated on Brexit negotiations. | “It’s going to be more than €40bn for sure,” said the Greek MEP Giorgos Kyrtsos, who sits on the Economic and monetary affairs committee, which is regularly updated on Brexit negotiations. |
| It’s very difficult to estimate what the bill will be when we don’t know what the long-term obligations of the UK will be, and whether there’ll be liquidation of European assets. | It’s very difficult to estimate what the bill will be when we don’t know what the long-term obligations of the UK will be, and whether there’ll be liquidation of European assets. |
| The UK, he added, had investments in European banks and infrastructure that had to be taken into account and pensions that had to be paid. | The UK, he added, had investments in European banks and infrastructure that had to be taken into account and pensions that had to be paid. |
| The net contribution of the UK to the European budget is between €10bn and €12bn per year … right now, everyone is quoting a number that they want to hear but the impression that I - and those I talk to in Brussels - have is that it will definitely be more than €40bn. We are talking about a difference of €5bn or €10bn, which - in the grand scheme of things - is peanuts. | The net contribution of the UK to the European budget is between €10bn and €12bn per year … right now, everyone is quoting a number that they want to hear but the impression that I - and those I talk to in Brussels - have is that it will definitely be more than €40bn. We are talking about a difference of €5bn or €10bn, which - in the grand scheme of things - is peanuts. |
| Scotland’s first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, has released a more detailed statement responding to this morning’s deal on the first stage of Brexit negotiations. | Scotland’s first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, has released a more detailed statement responding to this morning’s deal on the first stage of Brexit negotiations. |
| Describing the agreement as “a welcome step forward”, she signals a number of warnings to Theresa May, including the insistence that the Scottish government be “fully involved” in stage two negotiations on trade. Sturgeon says: | Describing the agreement as “a welcome step forward”, she signals a number of warnings to Theresa May, including the insistence that the Scottish government be “fully involved” in stage two negotiations on trade. Sturgeon says: |
| The next phase will be significantly tougher and it is essential all the UK’s governments are now fully involved in the negotiations on the UK’s future relationship with the EU – something that has not happened to this point. | The next phase will be significantly tougher and it is essential all the UK’s governments are now fully involved in the negotiations on the UK’s future relationship with the EU – something that has not happened to this point. |
| While fully supporting the protection of the Good Friday agreement and the guarantee that there will be no hard border on the island of Ireland, Sturgeon goes on to highlight the continued contradictions in the UK government’s position, as she has done all week. | While fully supporting the protection of the Good Friday agreement and the guarantee that there will be no hard border on the island of Ireland, Sturgeon goes on to highlight the continued contradictions in the UK government’s position, as she has done all week. |
| We will be seeking clarity on how the UK government intends to deliver full alignment with the rules of the Single Market and Customs Union. And there is no doubt that the provisions relating to Northern Ireland raise major new questions over proposed UK-wide frameworks that are the subject of on going talks between the UK and Scottish governments. | We will be seeking clarity on how the UK government intends to deliver full alignment with the rules of the Single Market and Customs Union. And there is no doubt that the provisions relating to Northern Ireland raise major new questions over proposed UK-wide frameworks that are the subject of on going talks between the UK and Scottish governments. |
| And I am absolutely clear that any special arrangements for Northern Ireland must now be available to other nations of the UK – the Scottish government will not accept any arrangements which risk putting Scotland at an economic disadvantage. | And I am absolutely clear that any special arrangements for Northern Ireland must now be available to other nations of the UK – the Scottish government will not accept any arrangements which risk putting Scotland at an economic disadvantage. |
| This reference to “major new questions” reflects her growing confidence that she can rebuild support for her own government’s stance on Brexit. That assumes special terms for Northern Ireland will fuel public anger that the Tories have no mandate to enforce a harder line for Scotland, given the country’s majority support for remaining in the EU and continued consensus that preserving the closest possible economic ties with Europe is the most desirable outcome. | This reference to “major new questions” reflects her growing confidence that she can rebuild support for her own government’s stance on Brexit. That assumes special terms for Northern Ireland will fuel public anger that the Tories have no mandate to enforce a harder line for Scotland, given the country’s majority support for remaining in the EU and continued consensus that preserving the closest possible economic ties with Europe is the most desirable outcome. |
| Sturgeon said her ministers would continue to argue that case at the next meeting of the joint ministerial committee in London next week. Sturgeon concluded: | Sturgeon said her ministers would continue to argue that case at the next meeting of the joint ministerial committee in London next week. Sturgeon concluded: |
| We will be studying the details of the phase one agreement but we welcome the fact that finally there has been some movement to guarantee the rights of EU and UK citizens – although it is disgraceful that it has taken this long and there is still more to do in phase two. | We will be studying the details of the phase one agreement but we welcome the fact that finally there has been some movement to guarantee the rights of EU and UK citizens – although it is disgraceful that it has taken this long and there is still more to do in phase two. |
| In addition it seems the UK could also now be paying around £50bn just for the right to negotiate an inferior trade deal than the one we have now. | In addition it seems the UK could also now be paying around £50bn just for the right to negotiate an inferior trade deal than the one we have now. |
| It was confirmed this morning that the European Court of Justice will retain a role in the UK justice system after Brexit. But Downing Street has moved quickly to play down its significance. | It was confirmed this morning that the European Court of Justice will retain a role in the UK justice system after Brexit. But Downing Street has moved quickly to play down its significance. |
| An official insisted on Friday that only about two or three cases are expected to be referred to it each year, under provisions that will allow UK courts and tribunals to seek the Luxembourg court’s “interpretation” of questions relating to the rights of EU nationals in Britain. | An official insisted on Friday that only about two or three cases are expected to be referred to it each year, under provisions that will allow UK courts and tribunals to seek the Luxembourg court’s “interpretation” of questions relating to the rights of EU nationals in Britain. |
| Theresa May’s official spokesman stressed that the decision to refer would be “entirely voluntary” for UK courts and the ECJ would not have the power to call in cases. | Theresa May’s official spokesman stressed that the decision to refer would be “entirely voluntary” for UK courts and the ECJ would not have the power to call in cases. |
| Late-night talks, a visit from Boris Johnson and a Christmas party - here’s the inside story of how the Brexit deal was done. | Late-night talks, a visit from Boris Johnson and a Christmas party - here’s the inside story of how the Brexit deal was done. |
| The Ulster Unionists have made life a little easier for their rivals in the DUP in terms of ‘selling’ the latest deal on Brexit and the Irish border. | The Ulster Unionists have made life a little easier for their rivals in the DUP in terms of ‘selling’ the latest deal on Brexit and the Irish border. |
| Veteran Ulster Unionist (UUP) MEP Jim Nicholson welcomed the latest arrangement but warned that pro-union people across the UK would not accept any measures on trade that would disconnect Northern Ireland from Britain. | Veteran Ulster Unionist (UUP) MEP Jim Nicholson welcomed the latest arrangement but warned that pro-union people across the UK would not accept any measures on trade that would disconnect Northern Ireland from Britain. |
| Nicholson’s cautious endorsement of the deal will make the DUP high command less nervous about their grassroots and the wider unionist electorate. | Nicholson’s cautious endorsement of the deal will make the DUP high command less nervous about their grassroots and the wider unionist electorate. |
| The UUP MEP said: | The UUP MEP said: |
| We will closely follow any further discussion on ‘regulatory alignment’ in specific areas, and press the government to commitments made this week that any such alignment applies to the whole of the United Kingdom. We cannot have a situation whereby new trade barriers or internal borders are put up within the United Kingdom - it would undermine the constitutional integrity of the United Kingdom, have serious implications for the Belfast Agreement and harm our local economy. | We will closely follow any further discussion on ‘regulatory alignment’ in specific areas, and press the government to commitments made this week that any such alignment applies to the whole of the United Kingdom. We cannot have a situation whereby new trade barriers or internal borders are put up within the United Kingdom - it would undermine the constitutional integrity of the United Kingdom, have serious implications for the Belfast Agreement and harm our local economy. |
| Equally, we do not want a return to the borders of the past and the best way to ensure a frictionless border between the United Kingdom and the Republic of Ireland is to move to phase two of the Brexit negotiations, and agree a deep and comprehensive free trade deal. Now the UK and the EU have the opportunity to do just that, and develop a new bespoke trading relationship that works for all of the United Kingdom. | Equally, we do not want a return to the borders of the past and the best way to ensure a frictionless border between the United Kingdom and the Republic of Ireland is to move to phase two of the Brexit negotiations, and agree a deep and comprehensive free trade deal. Now the UK and the EU have the opportunity to do just that, and develop a new bespoke trading relationship that works for all of the United Kingdom. |
| Businesses and bankers urged the government to make urgent progress on trade talks after Theresa May secured a “hard won” agreement with the European commission to allow the government to move to the second stage of Brexit negotiations. | Businesses and bankers urged the government to make urgent progress on trade talks after Theresa May secured a “hard won” agreement with the European commission to allow the government to move to the second stage of Brexit negotiations. |
| Sterling was higher against the euro, up 0.2% at €1.1468, after the prime minister and European commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker announced their breakthrough in the discussions just before the European markets opened on Friday. The FTSE 100 index of leading stocks was 31 points higher at 7,352. | Sterling was higher against the euro, up 0.2% at €1.1468, after the prime minister and European commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker announced their breakthrough in the discussions just before the European markets opened on Friday. The FTSE 100 index of leading stocks was 31 points higher at 7,352. |
| Bank of England officials have been calling for a transition deal to be agreed by Christmas to smooth the UK’s exit from the EU and delay the implementation of contingency plans that could result in 10,000 roles leaving the City on “day one” of Brexit in March 2019. | Bank of England officials have been calling for a transition deal to be agreed by Christmas to smooth the UK’s exit from the EU and delay the implementation of contingency plans that could result in 10,000 roles leaving the City on “day one” of Brexit in March 2019. |
| Stephen Jones, chief executive of the financial industry lobby group UK Finance, said Friday’s agreement was “just the start”. | Stephen Jones, chief executive of the financial industry lobby group UK Finance, said Friday’s agreement was “just the start”. |
| We now need to see the detail and further action on those issues that will determine the real impact of Brexit on the economy, consumers and jobs. Businesses need to see clear progress in the new year on the future trading relationship and how we will transition to any new arrangements to ensure we can continue to meet the needs of customers. | We now need to see the detail and further action on those issues that will determine the real impact of Brexit on the economy, consumers and jobs. Businesses need to see clear progress in the new year on the future trading relationship and how we will transition to any new arrangements to ensure we can continue to meet the needs of customers. |
| The British Chambers of Commerce also called for more detail early in the new year about the UK’s future trade relationship with the EU. Its director general Adam Marshall, though, welcomed the clarity that EU citizens in the UK and UK citizens in the rest of the EU will have the right to stay: | The British Chambers of Commerce also called for more detail early in the new year about the UK’s future trade relationship with the EU. Its director general Adam Marshall, though, welcomed the clarity that EU citizens in the UK and UK citizens in the rest of the EU will have the right to stay: |
| The biggest priority for many firms since the EU referendum has been to get clarity and security for their European employees, whose contribution to business success across the UK is hugely valued. We are delighted that they, as well as UK citizens living and working in the EU, now have more clarity and can plan their future with greater confidence. | The biggest priority for many firms since the EU referendum has been to get clarity and security for their European employees, whose contribution to business success across the UK is hugely valued. We are delighted that they, as well as UK citizens living and working in the EU, now have more clarity and can plan their future with greater confidence. |
| Theresa May’s spokesman said: | Theresa May’s spokesman said: |
| We see this as a fair settlement of our obligations. We’ve always been clear that where we had obligation we would honour them. It’s been a forensic process, teams from the Department from Exiting the European Union went through this line by line but we think we’ve reached a fair agreement. | We see this as a fair settlement of our obligations. We’ve always been clear that where we had obligation we would honour them. It’s been a forensic process, teams from the Department from Exiting the European Union went through this line by line but we think we’ve reached a fair agreement. |
| In terms of the ECJ (European court of justice) we think we are looking at around two to three cases a year in relation to citizens’ rights only and most importantly it would be a decision taken by a British court whether or not they wanted to refer a case to the ECJ for a view, that would be an entirely voluntary process. It will be the UK courts who are taking the decisions. | In terms of the ECJ (European court of justice) we think we are looking at around two to three cases a year in relation to citizens’ rights only and most importantly it would be a decision taken by a British court whether or not they wanted to refer a case to the ECJ for a view, that would be an entirely voluntary process. It will be the UK courts who are taking the decisions. |
| On UK citizens in Europe moving to other European countries - that is a matter that has not been settled yet. | On UK citizens in Europe moving to other European countries - that is a matter that has not been settled yet. |
| He also joked that the documents were in “excruciating detail” - the same words David Davis used to describe the impact assessments.On the EU draft guidelines , the PM’s spokesman said: | He also joked that the documents were in “excruciating detail” - the same words David Davis used to describe the impact assessments.On the EU draft guidelines , the PM’s spokesman said: |
| We are leaving the single market and the customs union in March 2019 - I will write it on a sign if you like. | We are leaving the single market and the customs union in March 2019 - I will write it on a sign if you like. |
| The Leave Means Leave group, backed by some Tory MP, is, like fellow Brexiter Nigel Farage, not enamoured by the deal reached today: | The Leave Means Leave group, backed by some Tory MP, is, like fellow Brexiter Nigel Farage, not enamoured by the deal reached today: |
| Splits in the #Brexit camp? The Leave Means Leave group says today's deal "raises many questions and potential hostages to fortune. pic.twitter.com/sXC1Nt0Yaa | Splits in the #Brexit camp? The Leave Means Leave group says today's deal "raises many questions and potential hostages to fortune. pic.twitter.com/sXC1Nt0Yaa |
| Sadiq Khan has revealed he has commissioned his own Brexit impact papers for the capital after the furore surrounding the government’s own assessments, which David Davis said did not exist after all. | Sadiq Khan has revealed he has commissioned his own Brexit impact papers for the capital after the furore surrounding the government’s own assessments, which David Davis said did not exist after all. |
| The London Evening Standard reports that the mayor of London has commissioned reports by independent experts Cambridge Econometrics, and quotes him as saying: | The London Evening Standard reports that the mayor of London has commissioned reports by independent experts Cambridge Econometrics, and quotes him as saying: |
| It is outrageous that the Government either failed to properly consider the impact of Brexit on Britain’s economy, or are refusing to release their analysis. | It is outrageous that the Government either failed to properly consider the impact of Brexit on Britain’s economy, or are refusing to release their analysis. |
| If it’s the former then I question their competence. If it is the latter then I question whether they have something to hide. | If it’s the former then I question their competence. If it is the latter then I question whether they have something to hide. |
| We need to know the impact of different Brexit scenarios on our economy in order to deliver a Brexit deal that protects jobs and growth. | We need to know the impact of different Brexit scenarios on our economy in order to deliver a Brexit deal that protects jobs and growth. |
| Campaigns for UK citizens in Europe and EU citizens in the UK have branded today’s deal “a double disaster”. Jane Golding, the chair of British in Europe, said: | Campaigns for UK citizens in Europe and EU citizens in the UK have branded today’s deal “a double disaster”. Jane Golding, the chair of British in Europe, said: |
| This deal is even worse than we expected. After 18 months of wrangling, the UK and EU have sold 4.5 million people down the river in a grubby bargain that will have a severe impact on ordinary people’s ability to live their lives as we do now. | This deal is even worse than we expected. After 18 months of wrangling, the UK and EU have sold 4.5 million people down the river in a grubby bargain that will have a severe impact on ordinary people’s ability to live their lives as we do now. |
| This is a double disaster for British people living in Europe. At the moment, not only is it unclear whether we keep our automatic residency rights, but it looks like we can also kiss goodbye to continuing free movement beyond any agreed transition period – which so many of us who work across Europe rely on to support our families. | This is a double disaster for British people living in Europe. At the moment, not only is it unclear whether we keep our automatic residency rights, but it looks like we can also kiss goodbye to continuing free movement beyond any agreed transition period – which so many of us who work across Europe rely on to support our families. |
| On the other side of the argument, the hard Brexit supporter, Nigel Farage, is equally unhappy. | On the other side of the argument, the hard Brexit supporter, Nigel Farage, is equally unhappy. |
| Farage "Frankly, there have been no negotiations. We've waited months and months and we've agreed to all the things that the EU insisted on". | Farage "Frankly, there have been no negotiations. We've waited months and months and we've agreed to all the things that the EU insisted on". |
| Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, warned that the next phase of Brexit talks, on the future, would be harder than the divorce. “Not everyone has yet well understood that there are points that are non-negotiable for the EU,” he said reiterating there would be no watering down or of the EU’s four freedoms (goods, services, people and capital) or decision-making autonomy. | Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, warned that the next phase of Brexit talks, on the future, would be harder than the divorce. “Not everyone has yet well understood that there are points that are non-negotiable for the EU,” he said reiterating there would be no watering down or of the EU’s four freedoms (goods, services, people and capital) or decision-making autonomy. |
| The commission had studied Theresa May’s red lines, he said, and concluded that the only option for the UK was a free-trade agreement modelled on the deal the EU struck with Canada in 2016, an arrangement that would mark a major retreat from the current level of economic integration. | The commission had studied Theresa May’s red lines, he said, and concluded that the only option for the UK was a free-trade agreement modelled on the deal the EU struck with Canada in 2016, an arrangement that would mark a major retreat from the current level of economic integration. |
| The Green party reacts to the announcement of a divorce agreement having been reached by calling for a referendum on whether or not to accept the final Brexit deal struck by the government. | The Green party reacts to the announcement of a divorce agreement having been reached by calling for a referendum on whether or not to accept the final Brexit deal struck by the government. |