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Brexit: Boris Johnson congratulates May on Brussels deal – live updates Brexit divorce bill estimated at between £35bn and £39bn – live updates
(35 minutes later)
The Green party reacts to the announcement of a divorce agreement having been reached by calling for a referendum on whether or not to accept the final Brexit deal struck by the government.
And yet more from Germany, where the Süddeutsche Zeitung newspaper says:
The message on this Friday in Brussels: it’s not going to get any easier – on the contrary. The EU is going to stay tough. Whether it can keep a united front remains to be seen. Until now, all 27 EU states had a common interest; when it comes to a deal on the future relationship, the situation is different. Especially economically strong nations, like the Netherlands or Germany, have different interests to, for example, Greece or Bulgaria.
And Die Welt writes:
May’s government team remains as torn as before on what Brexit is actually meant to look like. The cabinet only wants to decide at the end of the year on what it wants to see after 29 March 2019. A model à la Norway, with access to the EU single market, which would however also involve free movement of EU citizens? A no-go with the hardliners. A trade deal à la Canada? That would be a blow for the British finance industry, which would no longer have barrier-free access to the European market.
Some more reaction from Ireland, where the opposition leader has been discussing the course on which he believes today’s agreement has set the UK.
BREAKING: Ireland's opposition leader says Britain heading for soft Brexit. "From the British perspective, it seems to me we are edging towards a soft Brexit, something the Brexiteers may not want to here, but there are certain realities dawning" - Micheal Martin
Fianna Fail leader Micheal Martin - believes Northern Ireland, wrost performing economy in the UK can now be made a special economic zone." a sense now that NI might get the best of the both worlds – access to EU and Ireland"
Fianna Fail leader Micheal Martin: "A lot of Irish biz ... cheddar cheese you name it, depend on a good outcome on the second stage of negotiations between Britain and EU" - interviewed by RTE Sean O'Rourke
Michael Martin admits there are "irreconcilibles" in today's deal. Main one on Irish front is between paragraph 49 and par 50 - 49 guarantees alignment N-S, 50 guarantees East-West. If UK out of CU and SM, how can u guarantee par 50?
On Tory WhatsApp groups, everyone is praising Theresa May. Today’s agreement has had the unusual effect of pleasing some hardline Brexiters.
Nadine Dorries has tweeted a meme from the Institute of Directors doing the rounds on Twitter that: “This deal is an early Christmas present for businesses in the UK.”
Those on the other side of the argument, such as Dominic Grieve and Anna Soubry, also think this is a potential win for them. The latter tells me:
This is an important moment because it is a move in the right direction to a much more sensible, softer Brexit. I don’t care about the words we use - I’m interested in the benefits it delivers and this is a move towards delivering the benefits of the customs union and single market and that is good news for British business.
She said, ultimately, she doesn’t believe the UK can get a bespoke deal, so it will be “more EFTA or WTO”. And she argues that Britain must be pushing for the former.
There was only one question on the ballot paper - leave or remain. We are leaving the EU, let’s do it in best way to bring country back together. And that means trying to achieve benefits of single market and customs union.
Meanwhile a Labour MP tells me: “Now is the moment for the Labour party to definitively say that we are for a soft Brexit and for staying in the customs union. Theresa May has conceded the principle of regulatory alignment - rather than spend months wasting time to say what we want- lets just say it now.”
The Irish government’s chief whip has welcomed the Brexit/Irish border deal, saying it would be a huge step forward in keeping the frontier open.The Irish government’s chief whip has welcomed the Brexit/Irish border deal, saying it would be a huge step forward in keeping the frontier open.
Joe McHugh, who represents the border constituency of Donegal in the Dail, said it was a positive day for people living on both sides of the 300-plus-mile border.Joe McHugh, who represents the border constituency of Donegal in the Dail, said it was a positive day for people living on both sides of the 300-plus-mile border.
McHugh said the confirmation that checkpoints would not be reintroduced along the frontier with Northern Ireland would be welcomed by communities in both jurisdictions.McHugh said the confirmation that checkpoints would not be reintroduced along the frontier with Northern Ireland would be welcomed by communities in both jurisdictions.
Ireland achieved all our goals in the phase one negotiations, including - crucially for people in this county - that there will be no hard border after Britain leaves the EU.Ireland achieved all our goals in the phase one negotiations, including - crucially for people in this county - that there will be no hard border after Britain leaves the EU.
The agreement preserves the Common Travel Area and protects all the relationships agreed in the Good Friday Agreement.The agreement preserves the Common Travel Area and protects all the relationships agreed in the Good Friday Agreement.
EU and UK negotiators reached an agreement overnight which took full account of border counties like Donegal.EU and UK negotiators reached an agreement overnight which took full account of border counties like Donegal.
Officials have disclosed that Britain’s divorce bill is estimated to be £35-39bn and (€40-45bn). Britain’s divorce bill is estimated to be £35bn-£39bn (€40bn-€45bn), it has been disclosed.
The UK will only pay if a wider withdrawal agreement is struck by Brexit day. It includes the payment promised by Theresa May in her Florence speech, which she linked to a two-year transition period. The UK will only pay if a wider withdrawal agreement is struck by Brexit day and there is swift agreement on a transition period. It includes the payment promised by Theresa May in her Florence speech, which she linked to a two-year “implementation period”, as she describes it. The EU is not linking the sum to the transition period, however.
The EU is not linking the sum to the transition period, however. If the UK wants a transition period beyond 31 December 2020, when then current seven-year EU budget ends, it will have to pay more. The money will be paid over a period of time, rather than in a lump sum. If the UK wants a transition period beyond 31 December 2020, when the current seven-year EU budget ends, it will have to pay more. The EU is also leaving open the question of whether or not it will seek additional funds in return for the transition period. The money will be paid over time rather than in a lump sum.
TUC general secretary, Frances O’Grady, said the news allowed the government to move on to discussions about what she said were the major issues: “How we get a good deal that protects workers’ rights, jobs and livelihoods.”TUC general secretary, Frances O’Grady, said the news allowed the government to move on to discussions about what she said were the major issues: “How we get a good deal that protects workers’ rights, jobs and livelihoods.”
But she said it was “clear the government’s determination to leave the single market and customs unions is getting in the way”. O’Grady added:But she said it was “clear the government’s determination to leave the single market and customs unions is getting in the way”. O’Grady added:
The government must drop its self-defeating red lines and put these options back on the table. And, before the next round of talks, we need a sea-change in the way the government acts. Ministers need to bring in the negotiating expertise of unions and employers.The government must drop its self-defeating red lines and put these options back on the table. And, before the next round of talks, we need a sea-change in the way the government acts. Ministers need to bring in the negotiating expertise of unions and employers.
The Irish prime minister has pledged to be a “close friend” of Theresa May’s in the next stage of negotiations on the back of today’s agreement on the Irish border.The Irish prime minister has pledged to be a “close friend” of Theresa May’s in the next stage of negotiations on the back of today’s agreement on the Irish border.
At a breakfast press conference in Dublin, Leo Varadkar said he was very keen that Britain gets deep and ambitious deal on trade because that would be good for Ireland too.At a breakfast press conference in Dublin, Leo Varadkar said he was very keen that Britain gets deep and ambitious deal on trade because that would be good for Ireland too.
He said Theresa May “would have no closer friend” than Ireland during the phase two negotiations and he hoped the special deal struck for Northern Ireland would not come to pass because it would not be needed.He said Theresa May “would have no closer friend” than Ireland during the phase two negotiations and he hoped the special deal struck for Northern Ireland would not come to pass because it would not be needed.
He admitted Anglo-Irish relations had been damaged by Brexit rows but believes that can be repaired quickly.He admitted Anglo-Irish relations had been damaged by Brexit rows but believes that can be repaired quickly.
I’ll be very frank. Brexit by its nature has strained relations between Ireland and the UK, of course it has, how could it not. Our role now is to get through that.I’ll be very frank. Brexit by its nature has strained relations between Ireland and the UK, of course it has, how could it not. Our role now is to get through that.
I actually think because of this agreement that we have today, because we have the guarantees and the assurances that we sought, Britain will have no closer friend than Ireland.I actually think because of this agreement that we have today, because we have the guarantees and the assurances that we sought, Britain will have no closer friend than Ireland.
He described the deal as “a significant day” for Ireland and said he wanted to assure the people of Northern Ireland “here is no question of us trying to exploit Brexit as a means of moving to a United Ireland without consent”.He described the deal as “a significant day” for Ireland and said he wanted to assure the people of Northern Ireland “here is no question of us trying to exploit Brexit as a means of moving to a United Ireland without consent”.
The difference between this deal and the deal agreed on Monday that the Democratic Unionist Party scuppered was mostly “stylistic” but involved on significant guarantee that there would be no border controls in the Irish Sea.The difference between this deal and the deal agreed on Monday that the Democratic Unionist Party scuppered was mostly “stylistic” but involved on significant guarantee that there would be no border controls in the Irish Sea.
Varadkar confirmed he had not spoken to Arlene Foster since Monday and all talks were channeled through Brussels Brexit task force.Varadkar confirmed he had not spoken to Arlene Foster since Monday and all talks were channeled through Brussels Brexit task force.
Foster has said she has won six guarantees in the deal but had not won everything she wanted and had “cautioned” the prime minister not to accept the deal.Foster has said she has won six guarantees in the deal but had not won everything she wanted and had “cautioned” the prime minister not to accept the deal.
Informed sources said May had “no choice but to face the DUP down. The stakes were too big not to progress talks. But we know Arlene is happy”.Informed sources said May had “no choice but to face the DUP down. The stakes were too big not to progress talks. But we know Arlene is happy”.
Foster welcomed that there would be no “red line” down the Irish Sea and a “clear confirmation” that there would be “no new regulatory barriers” between Northern Ireland and the UK.Foster welcomed that there would be no “red line” down the Irish Sea and a “clear confirmation” that there would be “no new regulatory barriers” between Northern Ireland and the UK.
Earlier, Ireland’s deputy prime minister, Simon Coveney, had said the Irish border deal was a “relief” for “everybody in the country.”Earlier, Ireland’s deputy prime minister, Simon Coveney, had said the Irish border deal was a “relief” for “everybody in the country.”
Theresa May said the deal would guarantee there would be no barriers “north, south, east, west”.Theresa May said the deal would guarantee there would be no barriers “north, south, east, west”.
Reaction is now coming in from within the EU27 nations. Joachim Lang, the director of the Association of German Industry (BDI), warns London not to have “any false illusions”.Reaction is now coming in from within the EU27 nations. Joachim Lang, the director of the Association of German Industry (BDI), warns London not to have “any false illusions”.
The hardest part of the negotiations still lies ahead of us. Industry needs clarity on the future relationship at the earliest opportunity. The negotiations have to step up a gear. London must not have any false illusions. Our businesses must know soon what model Downing Street envisions for the future deal and what the transition phase on the way there will look like.The hardest part of the negotiations still lies ahead of us. Industry needs clarity on the future relationship at the earliest opportunity. The negotiations have to step up a gear. London must not have any false illusions. Our businesses must know soon what model Downing Street envisions for the future deal and what the transition phase on the way there will look like.
In an op-ed, the leading German financial newspaper, Handelsblatt, is more hopeful. It says:In an op-ed, the leading German financial newspaper, Handelsblatt, is more hopeful. It says:
It is indeed now more likely that a disorderly Brexit without divorce settlement can be avoided. The threat of the traffic of goods and people between the British Isles and the continent collapsing overnight on 29 March 2019 appears to have been banished.It is indeed now more likely that a disorderly Brexit without divorce settlement can be avoided. The threat of the traffic of goods and people between the British Isles and the continent collapsing overnight on 29 March 2019 appears to have been banished.
Somewhat later than his senior cabinet colleagues, the foreign secretary - a prominent Leave campaigner - has expressed his support for the prime minister after the announcement that the divorce deal has been agreed.Somewhat later than his senior cabinet colleagues, the foreign secretary - a prominent Leave campaigner - has expressed his support for the prime minister after the announcement that the divorce deal has been agreed.
Congratulations to PM for her determination in getting today's deal. We now aim to forge a deep and special partnership with our European friends and allies while remaining true to the referendum result - taking back control of our laws, money and borders for the whole of the UK.Congratulations to PM for her determination in getting today's deal. We now aim to forge a deep and special partnership with our European friends and allies while remaining true to the referendum result - taking back control of our laws, money and borders for the whole of the UK.
The guarantee there will be no regulatory barriers between Northern Ireland and the UK is not just welcome to the DUP it is also hugely significant for Ireland. The UK is Ireland’s single biggest export market with annual trade including sales of beef, dairy, pharma and services worth around £50bn a year.The guarantee there will be no regulatory barriers between Northern Ireland and the UK is not just welcome to the DUP it is also hugely significant for Ireland. The UK is Ireland’s single biggest export market with annual trade including sales of beef, dairy, pharma and services worth around £50bn a year.
Democratic Unionist sources said the key aspect of the late-night agreement was the fact that trading regulations with Ireland - and indeed the whole of the EU - would be UK-wide.
They described this outcome as “Nigel’s red line” - a reference to the DUP leader at Westminster, Nigel Dodds. The North Belfast MP had insisted through the night that any trading relationships would be uniform whether they be in Bristol, Birmingham or Belfast.
The sources also said it was a ‘Troika’ of DUP leaders who sat through the night in constant touch with the prime minister’s officials in Brussels and London. They included Dodds and the party’s chief whip in the Commons, Sir Jeffrey Donaldson.
The pair liaised with the DUP’s leader, Arlene Foster, who remained at her home in Enniskillen, Co.Fermanagh.
The mood in the party so far this morning is said to be calm and relatively relaxed about this new arrangement, which the DUP high command is selling to the grassroots as a guarantee against the redrawing of the border into the Irish Sea or, in effect, decoupling Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK.
The Liberal Democrat leader, Vince Cable, welcomed news of the agreement, saying it would reduce the “risk of a catastrophic No Deal Brexit”
But how long will this deal last before it is torn apart by Theresa May’s own MPs? And what will happen next, seeing as the cabinet hasn’t even discussed yet what the final Brexit outcome should look like?
There are still two opposing views in government, those who want a close arrangement with the EU and those who want to tear apart decades of work building ties with our closest trading partner.
And there is still no solution over how to prevent a border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. The biggest obstacle to the government’s Brexit plans is being kicked into the long grass.
The government is still a long way from a final deal, and even further from delivering on what the Brexiters promised.
At the end of this process, it is the British people, not Tory MPs and the DUP, who should get to decide whether the deal is good enough.
Following the lead of many of his Labour colleagues, the mayor of London Sadiq Khan says the prime minister has “done what is necessary”, but that we “should have got to this point many months ago”. He says:
The government need to now accelerate progress - we simply cannot afford further delays. It is clear from the many conversations I have with business leaders that they need to know the details of the interim deal as early as possible in order to avoid having to put contingency plans into place.
I welcome the apparent U-turn from Theresa May on the rights of EU citizens living in the UK, and British citizens living in the EU. I will pore over the details of this over the coming days because there needs to be clear and unambiguous reassurance to the three million EU citizens in Britain – one million of whom are Londoners – that they can stay, and that they’ll have automatic full rights.
However, it is extremely disappointing that the prime minister is still insisting that Britain will leave the single market and customs union. Staying in both is without a doubt the best long-term solution for London and Britain.
Despite the progress today, it looks increasingly unlikely that we will get a deal that works in London’s best interests and protects jobs and growth across Britain.
Following on from Khan’s focus on business confidence in the capital - on a national leavel, the Confederation of British Industry says this morning’s news will “lift spirits in the run-up to Christmas”. Its deputy director-general, Josh Hardie, says:
There are two things that are top of the list. First is the final step for those EU citizens working here, and UK citizens abroad. It must be unequivocal that they are welcome, whatever the final deal. This cannot be their second Christmas where their rights are dependent on negotiations. Next is transition. Concrete assurances will build confidence and help firms across the UK and Europe to pause their contingency planning.
The national chairman of the Federation of Small Businesses, Mike Cherry, also welcomes the progress. He says:
The focus must now shift to the UK’s future trading relationship with the EU. This should include, by early next year, a guarantee that there will be no cliff-edge moment on Brexit day, but instead an orderly, time-limited transition period so that small firms only have one set of rule changes. The final deal must have as few barriers to trade as possible.
In a statement released via the anti-Brexit Open Britain campaign, the Labour MP Chuka Umunna says it was “about time” the prime minister concluded an agreement that allowed the UK to move on to talks about a trade deal.
Echoing the comments made by the European Council president, Donald Tusk, Umunna says:
A huge amount of time has been lost thanks to divisions in Cabinet, and the prime minister’s ridiculous red lines. In the meantime, new facts have come to light, on everything from Northern Ireland to the impact of Brexit for our NHS.
It has cost us a £50bn divorce bill to get this far. This is on top of a huge hit of tens of billions of pounds in lower growth since the referendum and higher prices in the shops because of the plunge in the value of the pound.
When it comes to trade talks, the only model on offer is a Canada-style agreement which the prime minister and the chancellor have said would be bad for our economy.
Faced with these new facts, people will understandably want to keep an open mind as to whether the costs of Brexit are worth it.
Lots of Labour politicians are making the argument that this morning’s deal still leaves us with the same difficulties in the second phase - and they believe it is now more likely we remain within the EU economic structures. One MP, Stephen Doughty, tells me:
The only way that full alignment can be achieved is remaining in the Customs Union and Single Market. It has been clear all along that you can’t have your cake and eat it in these negotiations. This is where reality bites. Perhaps now the absurdity of a no deal scenario and crashing out will finally be taken of the table by the Brextremists.
Also interviewed on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, Scotland’s Brexit minister Michael Russell appeared to flesh out Nicola Sturgeon’s earlier concerns about “special arrangements for Northern Ireland”, saying:
The agreement talks about giving the Northern Ireland assembly and executive full rights to make certain decisions. We’ve been asking for this for a year, so it seems rather perverse that the Northern Irish - who didn’t want it - get given it, and Scotland - which does want it - doesn’t get given it.
Russell said that the deal was currently confused.
The agreement also seems to indicate a very close relationship with the single market and the customs union... but that’s not something [about which] you can be ambiguous... Trying to pretend it does and doesn’t exist will not be possible in the next stage.
Asked by John Humphrys what the difference was between ‘full alignment’ and ‘membership of’, Russell joked: “If you have the answer to that I think you will do well.”
The DUP are going to face some opposition in its further right flank over this new Brexit/border deal.
The hard-line Traditional Unionist Voice, which is made up mainly of ex-DUP members opposed to power sharing government with Sinn Fein, have come out against the agreement.
TUV leader and former DUP MEP Jim Allister said the arrangement was “one way traffic” that only makes commitments by the UK to the EU and not the other way around.
He added: “If there is no UK/EU trade deal, is wholly prejudicial to Northern Ireland’s complete leaving of the EU. This default position, if there is no deal, leaves us entrapped within the EU’s single market and customs union on an unspecified, but clearly extensive, range of issues, whereas the rest of the UK would be liberated from such.”
This morning, however, DUP sources said they were confident they could sell the broad outline of this deal to their membership and, indeed, the wider unionist electorate.
Although Allister and the TUV are a monkey on the DUP’s back, it will be the reaction of the Ulster Unionists that will be more important in terms of unionism’s overall position on the arrangement.
If the UUP broadly accepts the terms of what Theresa May has secured overnight, then the larger DUP will be comfortable in terms of selling this package.
DUP statement: "There is still a major debate within the Cabinet, Parliament, the Conservative Party and other parties about the nature of any regulatory alignment with the EU that may be required post Brexit. We believe that the paper could pre-judge the outcome of that debate"
DUP statement 2/2: We cautioned the Prime Minister about proceeding with this agreement in its present form given the issues which still need to be resolved and the views expressed to us by many of her own party colleagues."
Looking back to Ireland, where the Taoiseach Leo Varadkar has been speaking and more reaction has been coming out from other sources, my colleague Lisa O’Carroll has this:
Varadkar: “This is not the end but it is end of the beginning” pic.twitter.com/8SjdC0sDkk
Varadkar: "There is no question of us trying to exploit Brexit as a means of moving to a United Ireland without consent. "
Varadkar pledges continues support to May: "To our neighbours in Britain – I thank you for your careful consideration of our concerns your good will your good faith. We have always shared common interset in peace, free movement and prosperity for anyone on these islands"
Varadkar added that he had not spoken to the leader of the DUP, Arlene Foster. But he made reference to the changes in the text - responsibility for many of which Foster has claimed:
Varadkar: Changes in text? "Many were stylistic, they were changes of language, or statements of fact which we had no difficulty with, the one change that is significant is par 50 is an assurance that people and business in NI there will be barriers to trade"west-east
Varadkar"Brexit by its nature has strained relations between Ireland and the UK, of course it has, how could it not." But he says the UK will not have a "closer friend" in coming negotiations on the back of this agreement.
The reaction by many Labour politicians has been one of cautious, muted - perhaps even begrudging - congratulation. The shadow Brexit secretary, Keir Starmer, typifies it, saying:
Despite being two months later than originally planned, it is encouraging that the European Commission has recommended sufficient progress in the Brexit negotiations.
The priority for both sides now must be to agree transitional arrangements on the same basic terms as we have now. That means staying in the single market and a customs union for a time-limited period.
We will also need to know the political price of the deal struck and the impact any compromise that has been agreed will have on our future relationship with the EU.
As the talks now move on to a discussion about Britain’s future relationship with the European Union, Theresa May must seriously reflect on her approach to the negotiations so far. We cannot have another year of chaos and confusion or the farcical scenes we saw earlier on in the week that put jobs and the economy at risk.
Michel Barnier, the European chief negotiator, is next up. He thanks those he has worked with on the talks to achieve the agreement. He says the EU side has worked together and there has been “real progress” on the three main issues.
He warns that there are more hurdles to be cleared in future.