This article is from the source 'guardian' and was first published or seen
on .
It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.
South Australian election, plus Batman byelection results – live
South Australian election, plus Batman byelection results – live
(35 minutes later)
This is almost certainly the last time we’ll be paying attention to voting in a seat named ‘Batman’.
Those booths are starting to pile in for Batman
With six of 46 polling places counted, Greens +7% and Labor +4% #BatmanVotes #auspol @AmyRemeikis
So we now have five booths reporting primary votes in Batman, and three booths reporting two-candidate-preferred votes.
Labor’s vote after preferences has dropped 4.4% in Reservoir, and gone up 1.6% in Reservoir West, and has gone up 1.8% in the small booth of Murray in the centre of the seat.
Overall this translates into a swing of 0.88% to the Greens. The Greens need a swing of 1.03%, so it’s extremely close.
Adam Bandt has taken the stage at Alex Bhathal’s party. Calla Wahlquist is there
.@AdamBandt has taken the stage at the Greens event. "This will be the last time ever I'm getting on stage as the only lower-house greens MP." #batmanvotes
Bandt: "Whatever the result tonight, one thing is now crystal clear: the greens are on the march everywhere, and never again will parties be able to go to an election saying if they beat up on refugees they will win votes, if they open a new coal mine they will win votes."
Some Greens campaign numbers while we wait for more results:-1400 placards put up-15,000 houses doorknocked-19,608 "voter contact attempts" (which sounds weirdly dystopian.)#batmanvotes
We’ve now got the first three booths in Batman, including two large booths in the northern suburb of Reservoir (a stronger area for Labor).
There’s a swing of 11% to the Greens in Reservoir, and a swing of 5.8% in Reservoir West.
Labor dropped 3% in Reservoir, and gained 5% in Reservoir West. Far too early to say anything, but suggests the Greens can gain ground in the north. We’ll need to wait for the two-candidate-preferred figures to know more.
This translates into an overall swing of 8.9% to the Greens and 2.2% to Labor.
Australia’s preferential voting system is always most interesting when there are three candidates with a chance - the order of elimination becomes important, with the third-placed candidate’s preference proving crucial.
An SA Best vote of 16-17% (predicted by last night’s polls) would likely see them break into the top two in a handful of seats, at which point it becomes crucial as to how the third-placed party is recommending their preferences.
Labor is recommending preferences to SA Best ahead of the Liberal Party in 18 seats, and the reverse in seventeen other seats, and is offering both options in Nick Xenophon’s seat of Hartley.
The Liberal Party is offering two different tickets in Hartley, but is preferencing SA Best ahead of Labor in every other seat.
Major party HTVs re SA BEST fwiw. pic.twitter.com/LorB0dgYUt
We are starting to get some very early results in for Batman as well.
VERY early numbers in Batman show 8% swing to Greens and 1% swing to Labor #BatmanVotes #auspol @AmyRemeikis
As the South Australian votes start to roll in, let’s take the time to throw back to one of the more … well, it sort of defies description … moments of the campaign – Nick Xenophon’s election ad.
Never forget. #savotes https://t.co/fHds3bs8qf
I’d predict a low turn-out favouring the Greens. Interested to see whether the so-called ‘hipster-proof fence’ manifests. Regardless, it’s votes, not booths, so if there’s a big Greens result in the south, the northern Labor result will be challenged to compensate #BatmanVotes
The Australian Conservation Foundation has released some final exit polling for Batman, which found that Adani – or at least stopping the Queensland coalmine – was a major issue for voters.
The sample size was 230 people, which is a small sample, even for a byelection, but it does point to one of the issues Labor has been faced with this campaign and will face at the next federal election.
The ACF polling found 74% of voters opposed the mine, while 56% were influenced in their vote by the issue.
“You can’t stand up for something unless you are having a fight about something,” says Christopher Pyne on Sky, explaining why Jay Weatherill was so combative against Canberra.
Polls are officially closed in both of the elections we are covering tonight.
It is still too early for results, but they should start coming though soon.
In the meantime, hit us with your predictions – send them through to @amyremeikis while we wait for the comment section to open (it is coming, I promise) and I’ll include some in the blog.
This is almost certainly the last time we’ll be paying attention to voting in a seat named Batman.
The electorate, named after John Batman, looks likely to be renamed in the upcoming Victorian redistribution, with draft recommendations due in the next few weeks.
The electorate, named after John Batman, looks likely to be renamed in the upcoming Victorian redistribution, with draft recommendations due in the next few weeks.
Most submissions have supported a proposed name change, with most proposals suggesting naming the seat after Simon Wonga, a 19th century Wurundjeri elder.
Most submissions have supported a proposed name change, with most proposals suggesting naming the seat after Simon Wonga, a 19th century Wurundjeri elder.
Labor has admitted it has an uphill battle to win Batman - despite having held the seat since it was created in 1949.
From inside the Labor tent, we are told that Labor “struggles” in areas where the median house price is over $750,000. Batman has seen a lot of housing price growth over the last couple of decades - you’d be lucky to get much change from $750,000 in most Batman suburbs these days.
And that low voter turnout we were talking about is another issue for Labor, and the Liberals making the decision to not run a candidate in the byelection has also made things more difficult, because that is just more people not turnout out to vote. Or preferences.
And preferences could be important here. There has been a real ‘teal’ trend in inner suburbs popping up across the nation, particularly the eastcoast, where traditional Liberal voters are turning to the Greens because of environmental concerns. That could see the Australian Conservatives, who are running a candidate, see their preferences head to the Greens. I know it bucks traditional thinking, but we saw it in Queensland as we are seeing it more and more as the demographics in inner-city seats change.
During the 2016 general election, Labor saw Liberal preferences flow to it. But where there was no Liberal candidate, like in Northcote in the state by-election, Labor reports the Greens won the preference flow.
In the last decade, Labor reports its vote in Batman has dropped, while the Greens have nearly doubled their vote over the same time period.
All in all, Labor is not confident.
But it looks like Labor isn’t the only party worried about voter turnout in Batman:
Hearing from senior Greens that the big concern is low voter turnout, lower than usual for a byelection, which they say is consistent across the electorate. Suggested causes: -Greens voters who are holiday/forgot -Liberal voters not voting #BatmanVotes @AmyRemeikis
The polls have closed for the Batman byelection and Alex Bhathal’s election-night party, at Preston brewpub with terrible acoustics and ferns hanging from the ceiling, is starting to fill up.
Volunteers in green shirts are being strategically arranged behind television journalists preparing to do live crosses and, as I write, another cameraman, who I assume belongs to the Greens, is steadily filming me. This is how the magic happens, people.
.@alexbhathal’s election night party is at a brewpub with ferns hanging from the ceiling, because of course. Terrible acoustics, I feel for those doing live crosses. #batmanvotes pic.twitter.com/1IQkrTOhsW
Labor folk are gathering about 700 metres down the road, in Thornbury. The party is suggesting there has been a low voter turnout in the southern half of the electorate, which would spell bad news for the Greens. The bulk of their vote comes from south of the Bell Street divide.
Early exit polls conducted by Lonergan Research commissioned by environmental groups tend to disagree, but the last few years have taught us not to rely overmuch on the accuracy of exit polls.
Volunteers at Thornbury primary school, where both Bhathal’s children and those of the state Greens MP Lidia Thorpe, who won the Northcote byelection in November, attend. They say it has been a mixed day. The only one with great success at winning over taciturn voters is Peachy the dog.
This is Peachy. He is helping hand out how to vote cards at Thornbury primary school. “He has got more votes than me,” says Peachy’s owner. #BatmanVotes @AmyRemeikis pic.twitter.com/GWHstnbugs
We are a few minutes out from the polls closing in the South Australian election and it is still looking too close to call:
.@AmandaRishworth: It's my belief that we won't see a clear winner in tonight's state election.MORE: https://t.co/B4GspogvcN #SAvotes pic.twitter.com/yZr22CfbD4
Speaking to Sky, Christopher Pyne said he expects Labor to hold on to Batman.
Labor’s Amanda Rishworth said she thinks it is going to come down to voter turnout.
Byelections traditionally have lower turnout than general elections, because, really, who can be bothered (I’m just stating the general ennui surrounding byelections, not making a personal comment). Especially in a byelection which won’t change the government.
One of the questions which tripped Nick Xenophon up towards the end of the South Australian campaign was who would lead SA Best if he fell short in Hartley.
He didn’t have an answer. He was also asked how he would pay for the regional infrastructure he promised, a question he answered by pointing to cutting from the biggest government departments. Which, as in most states, are health and education.
So that didn’t go down overly well.
The Electoral Commission of South Australia has just listed a $25,000 donation to the Liberals made on 8 March from Rudy Gomez’s Cartwheel Resources, the company that wants to build a mine “twice as big as Olympic Dam” at Lake Gairdner national park.
This would be the donation amount both parties refused to specify in this story. As we already knew, Gomez donated $50,000 to Nick Xenophon’s SA Best campaign and is thoroughly fed up with dealing with Labor’s project approval process.
While we’re on donations, the SA branch of the Australian Hotels Association has poured more money into its bid to stop Xenophon’s election, donating a furthter $10,000 to Labor and even chucking $5,000 the way of Advance SA, the party made up of breakways from Xenophon’s political movement.
Meanwhile, in Adelaide, before the close of polls: Nick Xenophon is likely to lose in Hartley but SA Best could pick up one of two seats. The Liberals think they are on track to get 25 or 26 seats.
Remember Labor needs a positive swing of 3% to stand still.
My feedback from Labor folks who have been handing out in Batman today is turnout is down in the south of the electorate, which is the Greens stronghold within the boundaries. This might be good news from their perspective, or it might just mean a number of people have already voted – we’ll have to wait and see.
In the north of the electorate, there has been some blowback today from Macedonian voters still angry that the ALP distributed campaign materials in Greek.
One of the big questions in this byelection has been what will Liberals do, given that the Liberals attracted 20% of the vote in the 2016 federal election and the party is not running a candidate in this contest.
If the battle between Labor and the Greens is tight, what the Liberals do will make a material difference to the outcome. Do they vote, or do they stay at home? The feedback from polling places is Liberal voters are out and seeking out the Australian Conservatives candidate.Buckle in.
Welcome to a night of politics.
Not only do we have South Australia deciding the most unpredictable election in recent memory, we also have the good burghers of Batman deciding whether Adam Bandt gets some company on the Greens side of the lower house crossbench.
Both campaigns have been fraught, full of drama and, at least from what the people are telling us, coming down to the wire.
But this is Australian politics, where nothing is certain.
Nick Xenophon has bet his political future on being a state powerbroker, but SA Best, his rebranded party, fumbled in the last few weeks of the campaign and Xenophon himself is no certainty to win the seat of Hartley. Labor have been in power for 16 years, which has been one of the strongest cornerstones of the Liberals’ campaign, as Steven Marshall argued it was beyond time for a change.
Meanwhile, Jay Weatherill has been talking up all of Labor’s successes, including its shift to renewable power sources. Will it be enough? We’ll find out soon enough.
Outside of South Australia, Melbourne has seen the battle of the left, as the Greens and Labor slug it out for the seat of Batman, left vacant by David Feeney’s misplacement of dual citizenship papers.
Ged Kearney’s and Alex Bhathal’s campaign for the seat has almost been the sideshow to party infighting and policy disputes. The polls tell us the Greens are on track for a historic win. There is not long to go to see if those polls are correct.
So join us as we indulge in what looks set to be a night of political upsets. Which is basically like political Christmas to us political livers.
Katharine Murphy is watching all the events and we have Calla Wahlquist, Ben Raue and Max Opray in the field.
Comments will be turned on from 7pm, but you can find me on Twitter in the meantime – @amyremeikis.
Grab your drink of choice, settle in and get ready with the refresh button – polls are about to close.
