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Liberals to win South Australian election as Labor claims victory in Batman byelection – live Liberals to win South Australian election as Labor triumphs in Batman byelection – live
(35 minutes later)
Congratulations Ged! You’ve been an outstanding candidate - and you’ll be an even better MP.
Jay Weatherill looks almost ready to address his election party, where he will be conceding the night to the Liberals.
For a quick recap of the night in Batman, head here.
A few of you have pointed out this tweet from earlier in the day.
It’s clear that if Labor loses Batman, Shorten will have to dump his rotten retirees tax. #auspol https://t.co/uOfO2GnLR9
So, does the opposite also prove true, or …
The Liberal party soiree has just greeted the call of the election for their team with a huge roar.
Here at the Hackney hotel in the leafy inner east of Adelaide, the atmosphere is of course considerably more lively than at the SA Best HQ.
After winning the popular vote at three of the past four elections, only to remain in opposition for 16 years, even the most confident Liberals harboured doubts that tonight would be their night.
Most candidates are still at their local events but will be pouring in shortly. The federal senator David Fawcett told Guardian Australia: “You could feel it over the final couple of weeks, there was a real mood for change and with the of scrutiny SA Best, people saw they weren’t the saviour, therefore it had to be us.”
Christopher Pyne says the SA result is part of a wider trend towards the Liberal party, pointing to its win in Tasmania as well (Queensland would be the outlier there, given that Labor was returned with a majority).
But Pyne tells Sky that elections are decided “on the economy” which is why he believes Malcolm Turnbull will win the next election.
That might be a little too simplistic. There was a swing against the Liberals in Bennelong (on the primary vote) and there has been a swing against the Liberals in South Australia (on the primary vote).
South Australia had the same party in power for 16 years and saw some pretty big boundary changes. Tasmania is always a crap shoot and Turnbull is coming up to his 30th Newspoll loss in a row.
The longtime Greens candidate Alex Bhathal has given a gracious concession speech, congratulating Ged Kearney on her win, and saying: “I’ve always said regardless of the result we would have a strong woman member from a caring profession.”
Bhathal said the result was “obviously” not what the Greens wanted but said it had been an “honour” to run against Kearney.
According to Ben Eltham, who is at the Greens event, Bhathal thanked her campaign team, the Greens leader, Richard Di Natale, Adam Bandt, Janet Rice, the state MP Lidia Thorpe, and the parents of Thornbury primary school, saying: “I know this has been a difficult night.”
Kearney and Bhathal have been cordial throughout the campaign, admitting to being similar candidates: professional, progressive women who have very similar personal political opinions. The difference has been their party policies.
Commentators have already put the blame for the unexpected Greens loss on toxic infighting but Di Natale reportedly told the crowd it was due to Labor doing a preference deal with rightwing parties.
Both Labor and the Greens preferenced each other over other parties, and Kearney is leading on primary votes.
Conceding loss, @RichardDiNatale tells @Greens party it’s because of Labor’s deals with hard right parties. #batmanvotes
The last time the Liberals held a majority government in South Australia, Paul Keating was prime minister.
We are now waiting on Ged Kearney to address her party in Batman.
We’ve received results from the first pre-poll booth. It’s come from the Labor heartland of Bundoora at the northern end of the seat. The Greens gained swings in both election-day booths in Bundoora, but has gone backwards by 2.7% in Bundoora’s pre-poll booth.We’ve received results from the first pre-poll booth. It’s come from the Labor heartland of Bundoora at the northern end of the seat. The Greens gained swings in both election-day booths in Bundoora, but has gone backwards by 2.7% in Bundoora’s pre-poll booth.
This is a small booth, but it seems clear that the Greens will not pick up the vote they need in the pre-poll, which confirms that Labor’s Ged Kearney will win the Batman by-election. This is a small booth, but it seems clear that the Greens will not pick up the vote they need in the pre-poll, which confirms that Labor’s Ged Kearney will win the Batman byelection.
We don’t know precisely how many votes are yet to report in Batman, but my rough count suggests the Greens would need at least 57% of the remaining votes to win. That’s not going to happen.We don’t know precisely how many votes are yet to report in Batman, but my rough count suggests the Greens would need at least 57% of the remaining votes to win. That’s not going to happen.
There are a lot of very disappointed faces at the Greens party, not counting Alex Bhathal and Richard Di Natale’s.There are a lot of very disappointed faces at the Greens party, not counting Alex Bhathal and Richard Di Natale’s.
Given what we saw come out internally within the Greens during the byelection (with a pretty big fight between an increasingly factionally divided party) and the fight over what the Greens should be standing for, expect to see more fallout over the next couple of months, and not just in Victoria.Given what we saw come out internally within the Greens during the byelection (with a pretty big fight between an increasingly factionally divided party) and the fight over what the Greens should be standing for, expect to see more fallout over the next couple of months, and not just in Victoria.
Di Natale just predicted Bhathal would come back and win Batman (or whatever it is renamed) at the next federal election, but I wouldn’t be so sure about that. Ged Kearney was chosen for a reason. Labor has also just proven its taxation policies are not the election poison, as has been predicted, and has earmarked inequality as the foundation of its campaign heading into the next election - which has already begun. Di Natale just predicted Bhathal would come back and win Batman (or whatever it is renamed) at the next federal election, but I wouldn’t be so sure about that. Ged Kearney was chosen for a reason. Labor has also just proven its taxation policies are not the election poison, as has been predicted, and has earmarked inequality as the foundation of its campaign heading into the next election – which has already begun.
Bhathal has now lost Batman six times.Bhathal has now lost Batman six times.
Some readers may be confused about how the Liberal party is on track for a majority despite pretty much no seats changing hands.Some readers may be confused about how the Liberal party is on track for a majority despite pretty much no seats changing hands.
This is because the recent electoral redistribution radically redraw the map to turn a number of Labor seats into notional Liberal seats.This is because the recent electoral redistribution radically redraw the map to turn a number of Labor seats into notional Liberal seats.
The Liberal party managed a majority of the statewide two-party-preferred vote in 2010 and 2014, winning 53% in 2014, but couldn’t manage to form government at either election.The Liberal party managed a majority of the statewide two-party-preferred vote in 2010 and 2014, winning 53% in 2014, but couldn’t manage to form government at either election.
South Australian law required the electoral commission to draw boundaries which would give a majority of seats to a party who has won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote.South Australian law required the electoral commission to draw boundaries which would give a majority of seats to a party who has won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote.
The commission threw up its hands after the 2010 election and insisted it couldn’t achieve this outcome, but did do so after the 2014 election. It looks as though the Liberal party has mostly won those redrawn seats, without winning much more.The commission threw up its hands after the 2010 election and insisted it couldn’t achieve this outcome, but did do so after the 2014 election. It looks as though the Liberal party has mostly won those redrawn seats, without winning much more.
Adam Bandt has taken the stage at Alex Bhathal’s party and says preferences went against the Greens.Adam Bandt has taken the stage at Alex Bhathal’s party and says preferences went against the Greens.
But he is claiming victory in making climate change an issue across Australia.But he is claiming victory in making climate change an issue across Australia.
The party leader, Richard Di Natale, said it was a very “tight-run race” but “because of all the preferences of all the hard-right parties … that we are just going to fall short tonight”.The party leader, Richard Di Natale, said it was a very “tight-run race” but “because of all the preferences of all the hard-right parties … that we are just going to fall short tonight”.
So for the first time in 16 years, South Australia will have a new government, with the Liberals all but having claimed victory.So for the first time in 16 years, South Australia will have a new government, with the Liberals all but having claimed victory.
Christopher Pyne is having a VERY good night –a not only has Steven Marshall got across the line, but Cory Bernardi’s Australian Conservatives have not had the showing that they may have expected to have, with SA Best taking AC’s portion of the vote.Christopher Pyne is having a VERY good night –a not only has Steven Marshall got across the line, but Cory Bernardi’s Australian Conservatives have not had the showing that they may have expected to have, with SA Best taking AC’s portion of the vote.
The Liberal party will form a majority government in South Australia.The Liberal party will form a majority government in South Australia.
Ben Raue is ready to call it:Ben Raue is ready to call it:
We have been waiting for votes from Liberal leader Steven Marshall’s seat, and we’ve now received these, confirming his re-election, with votes firming up in some other close races.We have been waiting for votes from Liberal leader Steven Marshall’s seat, and we’ve now received these, confirming his re-election, with votes firming up in some other close races.
The current count has the Liberal party on 25 seats, Labor on 18, independents on three, with Heysen remaining in doubt.The current count has the Liberal party on 25 seats, Labor on 18, independents on three, with Heysen remaining in doubt.
The most interesting seat in South Australia right now is in Heysen.
Right now the Liberal Party’s Josh Teague leads SA Best’s John Illingworth with 51.8% after preferences.
The ABC computer suggests this is enough for SA Best to squeak into the lead once the remaining booths report. But it assumes SA Best stay in the top two.
SA Best is on 24% of the primary vote, with Labor on 19% and the Greens on 12.5%. The Greens recommended preferences to Labor. If their votes tend to favour Labor, that could well see Labor’s candidate overtake Illingworth, at which point SA Best preferences would presumably help the Liberal Party to win the seat.
Unless the Liberal Party gains ground on SA Best in the remaining booths, We definitely won’t be able to call this seat until those Greens preferences are distributed.
The Liberal party looks like having 23 seats in South Australia, winning three seats from Labor (Colton, King and Mawson), which, if that count holds, means they just need one more to win government in their own right for the first time in 16 years.
Fun fact: this is the first election that the Liberals have used the i360 system, which, in its most basic form, allows for targeted campaigning. It’s a system which takes information people give, through surveys and what not, and then builds a targeted response – what exactly will win that person’s vote?
The Liberals have been a little behind in using technology, but it looks as though that is changing. Seriously, the next federal election is going to be INSANE.
At SA Best function at Palace Nova in Adelaide, the mood was getting grim with results below expectations among the crowd watching the ABC News results come in.
A groan that greeted projections that Nick Xenophon would lose in Hartley turned into a cheer as the man himself walked in.
A subdued, tired-looking Xenophon declared that SA Best had broken the two-party duopoly by coming second in a range of seats, highlighting Joe Hill’s performance in Finnis and a potential victory in Heysen.
There were some pantomime boos at mention of the underhanded tactics by the major parties and the pokies lobby.
The biggest cheer came when Xenophon said it wasn’t over in Hartley, urging everyone to wait for the preferences to come in (even though Labor, the Liberals, the Greens and the Australian Conservatives have all preferenced against him).
He concluded with a promise to “make the parliament a work horse not a rocking horse”, and a movie suggestion: “Not sure if you all want to watch something other than the election. Maybe Winston Churchill, Our Darkest Hour?”
It looks as though the Turnbull government is about to get another state on board for its national energy guarantee (remember that?).
From Ben Raue:
The Liberal party is getting closer to winning a majority in South Australia.By my count, they are on 22 seats, with Labor trailing on 18 seats.
The Liberal party are still competing with Labor in Adelaide and Waite, and with SA Best in Heysen.
We have on data from the marginal Liberal seat of Dunstan. If they can hold the other seats they are leading, and win two of these four, they’ll hold a majority.
The Greens have not conceded as yet but Labor is confident enough to declare Ged Kearney as the winner of the Batman byelection contest.
And the party tells me, it looks like doing it with a slight swing to it to boot.
BREAKING: Labor has just called it. They have claimed Batman #BatmanVotes #auspol @AmyRemeikis
And from my feverish, tea-stained throne, this is also what I am hearing:
Labor still a bit cautious about pre-poll, but braver souls are now prepared to say they've got this #BatmanVotes #auspol @AmyRemeikis
We now have all but two election-day booths reporting results in Batman and the swing to Labor has blown out to 1.7%.
We are still waiting for up to 30,000 pre-poll and postal votes, with Labor leading by about 3,000 votes. The Greens would need about 55% of the remaining votes, which would be quite remarkable.
I’m not calling Batman for Labor quite yet but we’re getting close.
Nick Xenophon has not conceded but he has admitted he is not having the night he thought he would be having when he announced his campaign:
This is, this is not the beginning of the end, it’s actually the end of the beginning. Because I think we’re going to see some very interesting things happening. We’ll have a presence in the state parliament and we’ll build on that presence and build on it, so that every day, for the next four years, we’ll hold the government, the next government of South Australia, to account. We’ll hold the opposition to account, we’ll make the parliament a work house, not the rocking horse it is now. Let’s wait and see what happens. It will be a long night. We won’t have an idea for three or four days as to what is happening. It could be some issues about some of the misleading material put out by the major parties and the hotels association. My final remarks to you is thank you to the bottom of your heart, to the campaign team, to all the candidates who did a very brave thing. It takes a lot of courage to run for parliament and it’s been pretty nerve-wracking for a lot of people, pretty daunting. But every one of the candidates I ran with did SA Best proud and did the state proud for the way they conducted themselves.
The South Australian result is looking fairly dismal for SA Best at the moment. By my quick count, I have the Liberals on 19 seats, Labor on 17 seats, three independents, and Labor and Liberal still competing for five close seats (with no data from two other marginal seats).
SA Best only appears to have a good shot at winning a single seat – the Adelaide Hills district of Heysen, in the heart of the federal seat of Mayo.
It has come in the top two in quite a few seats but in most of them it is not polling enough to have a chance of winning. It is sitting on just under 15% of the statewide vote right now.
SA Best’s leader, Nick Xenophon, is sitting on a primary vote of 26% in Hartley. That’s about 15 percentage points behind the Liberal MP, Vincent Tarzia. He’s only managing 42% of the vote after preferences. Unless there is a dramatic shift in the remaining booths, Xenophon will be without a seat at the end of the night.