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South Australian election, plus Batman byelection results – live South Australian election, plus Batman byelection results – live
(35 minutes later)
Those booths are starting to pile in for Batman Some live images of #Batman by-election counting. Over 25 polling places returned on first preferences so far. See results at https://t.co/IUbNs5V6cw #auspol pic.twitter.com/mlYIQhv6O0
And from the party
I'm at the Batman Labor function st the Thornbury Theatre ... they're feeling pretty confident on early results #BatmanVotes
It is an absolute heart stopper/cliffhanger/nail biter in Melbourne. Right now Ged Kearney is pulling ahead of Alex Bhatal– fascinatingly Kearney is doing well in the south of the electorate, which is Greens heartland, and comparatively less well in the north, particularly Reservoir.
Labor will be daring to dream right now, but we’ve still got a fair whack of the Northcote vote to come. Two days ago I reported that Labor’s private polling had the contest absolutely neck and neck. Looks like they were right.
Labor pulling ahead in Batman, but there are some big Northcote booths to come #BatmanVotes #auspol @AmyRemeikis
You would have to say that one of the biggest things in Labor’s favour in batman is David Feeney is no longer the candidate. Ged Kearney may have some of the *celebrity* candidate about her, but she also has a proven track record with core Labor values. It is still too early to call, but at this stage, it means Labor has a fighting chance to hold the seat.
Antony Green is warning us he does not expect to call the South Australian election early tonight.
Batman is coming in faster than South Australia at the moment, where just under 2% of the vote has been counted.
In Melbourne, Ben Raue tells us:
There’s been a few more very good results for Labor in the south of Batman. They are up 7.9% after preferences in Clifton Hill, 4.7% in Collingwood North and 3.6% in Westgarth – all medium-sized southern booths in the Greens heartland. Overall the Labor swing after preferences is sitting on 0.7%.
Greens volunteers and members at Tallboy and Moose, the hipster pub where Alex Bhathal is holding her election party, are nervously refreshing the AEC website on their phones and sharing photos of vandalised campaign signs, which have been variously attributed to Labor or to “anti-Alex Greens”.
One Greens watcher tells me there will be “a reckoning” within the party if Bhathal is elected to clamp down on dissenting voices. They say there has almost been a “willingness to lose” among some Greens.
Bhathal herself has been dropped off at home after campaigning past 6pm (I have been told it took some effort to usher her into a car) and will not turn up here until the result is known.
For those looking for the results as they come in, you will find Batman here and South Australia here.
Quick jump to international politics, because this is important:
#BREAKING: Russia has expelled 23 British diplomats and halted the British Council in response to the UK's actions over a nerve agent attack. pic.twitter.com/8nMa3QVSMy
Labor tells us they are happy with what is happening in the southern part of the seat. But this is a very fast-moving beast.
With 18 of 46 polling places, both Labor and the Greens have a +5% swing #BatmanVotes #auspol @AmyRemeikis
We don’t have much in from South Australia (hence the focus on Batman) but there are a few marginal Liberal seats where Labor is doing quite well and could be on track to gain seats, including:
Adelaide – Labor up 5% with 3.9% counted
Waite – Labor up almost 10% with 1.7% counted
This would be enough of a swing for Labor to win Adelaide and would leave Waite as a virtual tie.
Just for the record, the Liberals have said they would not govern with SA Best in the event of a hung parliament.
Labor got across the line in the last state election in 2014 with the support of a couple of independents but we have seen boundary redistributions since then.
The ALP has not ruled out working with the crossbench to stay in government, but you have to ask (and I say this as a Queenslander who saw Labor win an election it really should have lost and then get wiped out at the following election) would you want to?
Silly question, I know.
We have six booths reporting preferences now. Labor has dropped by over 4% in Reservoir but are gaining small swings in the five other booths.
The overall swing to the Greens sits at 0.55%, short of what they need to win. The trend in those booths doesn’t look good for the Greens but the swings to Labor aren’t big enough to close the door.
Speaking to Sky News, Nick Xenophon said he was trying to “defy political gravity” by running in Hartley, but “that is where I live” so that is where he wanted to run.
As for what will happen if SA Best wins seats but he fails in his own bid?
Don’t write me off just yet, but I will be around to be a mentor, supporter to those who are elected, if I don’t get across the line, but at this stage, I am not conceding anything.
He said he was hoping for a handful of seats in the lower house and between two and four in the upper house.
With 14.6% of the vote counted, Antony Green’s computer is predicting a Labor win in Batman, but the man himself stresses this will continue to go back and forth for a while.
Or, as the expert Ben Raue tells us:
The primary vote figures from Batman are all over the place, with Labor gaining a much bigger primary vote swing in the southern booths of Alphington North and Collingwood North.
We will have to wait for the preferences to be distributed to know more.
So it is very close in Batman at this stage. We are still waiting on results from South Australia but so far in the Melbourne byelection there has been a swing to the Greens in the north and swings to Labor in the south.
This is getting interesting.
Those booths are starting to pile in for Batman.
With six of 46 polling places counted, Greens +7% and Labor +4% #BatmanVotes #auspol @AmyRemeikisWith six of 46 polling places counted, Greens +7% and Labor +4% #BatmanVotes #auspol @AmyRemeikis
So we now have five booths reporting primary votes in Batman, and three booths reporting two-candidate-preferred votes.So we now have five booths reporting primary votes in Batman, and three booths reporting two-candidate-preferred votes.
Labor’s vote after preferences has dropped 4.4% in Reservoir, and gone up 1.6% in Reservoir West, and has gone up 1.8% in the small booth of Murray in the centre of the seat.Labor’s vote after preferences has dropped 4.4% in Reservoir, and gone up 1.6% in Reservoir West, and has gone up 1.8% in the small booth of Murray in the centre of the seat.
Overall this translates into a swing of 0.88% to the Greens. The Greens need a swing of 1.03%, so it’s extremely close.Overall this translates into a swing of 0.88% to the Greens. The Greens need a swing of 1.03%, so it’s extremely close.
Adam Bandt has taken the stage at Alex Bhathal’s party. Calla Wahlquist is there
.@AdamBandt has taken the stage at the Greens event. "This will be the last time ever I'm getting on stage as the only lower-house greens MP." #batmanvotes
Bandt: "Whatever the result tonight, one thing is now crystal clear: the greens are on the march everywhere, and never again will parties be able to go to an election saying if they beat up on refugees they will win votes, if they open a new coal mine they will win votes."
Some Greens campaign numbers while we wait for more results:-1400 placards put up-15,000 houses doorknocked-19,608 "voter contact attempts" (which sounds weirdly dystopian.)#batmanvotes
We’ve now got the first three booths in Batman, including two large booths in the northern suburb of Reservoir (a stronger area for Labor).
There’s a swing of 11% to the Greens in Reservoir, and a swing of 5.8% in Reservoir West.
Labor dropped 3% in Reservoir, and gained 5% in Reservoir West. Far too early to say anything, but suggests the Greens can gain ground in the north. We’ll need to wait for the two-candidate-preferred figures to know more.
This translates into an overall swing of 8.9% to the Greens and 2.2% to Labor.
Australia’s preferential voting system is always most interesting when there are three candidates with a chance - the order of elimination becomes important, with the third-placed candidate’s preference proving crucial.
An SA Best vote of 16-17% (predicted by last night’s polls) would likely see them break into the top two in a handful of seats, at which point it becomes crucial as to how the third-placed party is recommending their preferences.
Labor is recommending preferences to SA Best ahead of the Liberal Party in 18 seats, and the reverse in seventeen other seats, and is offering both options in Nick Xenophon’s seat of Hartley.
The Liberal Party is offering two different tickets in Hartley, but is preferencing SA Best ahead of Labor in every other seat.
Major party HTVs re SA BEST fwiw. pic.twitter.com/LorB0dgYUt
We are starting to get some very early results in for Batman as well.
VERY early numbers in Batman show 8% swing to Greens and 1% swing to Labor #BatmanVotes #auspol @AmyRemeikis
As the South Australian votes start to roll in, let’s take the time to throw back to one of the more … well, it sort of defies description … moments of the campaign – Nick Xenophon’s election ad.
Never forget. #savotes https://t.co/fHds3bs8qf
I’d predict a low turn-out favouring the Greens. Interested to see whether the so-called ‘hipster-proof fence’ manifests. Regardless, it’s votes, not booths, so if there’s a big Greens result in the south, the northern Labor result will be challenged to compensate #BatmanVotes
The Australian Conservation Foundation has released some final exit polling for Batman, which found that Adani – or at least stopping the Queensland coalmine – was a major issue for voters.
The sample size was 230 people, which is a small sample, even for a byelection, but it does point to one of the issues Labor has been faced with this campaign and will face at the next federal election.
The ACF polling found 74% of voters opposed the mine, while 56% were influenced in their vote by the issue.
“You can’t stand up for something unless you are having a fight about something,” says Christopher Pyne on Sky, explaining why Jay Weatherill was so combative against Canberra.
Polls are officially closed in both of the elections we are covering tonight.
It is still too early for results, but they should start coming though soon.
In the meantime, hit us with your predictions – send them through to @amyremeikis while we wait for the comment section to open (it is coming, I promise) and I’ll include some in the blog.
This is almost certainly the last time we’ll be paying attention to voting in a seat named Batman.
The electorate, named after John Batman, looks likely to be renamed in the upcoming Victorian redistribution, with draft recommendations due in the next few weeks.
Most submissions have supported a proposed name change, with most proposals suggesting naming the seat after Simon Wonga, a 19th century Wurundjeri elder.