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IPCC climate change report calls for urgent action to phase out fossil fuels - live IPCC climate change report calls for urgent action to phase out fossil fuels - live
(35 minutes later)
We earlier heard from the co-chairs of the report a summary of the differences between 1.5C and 2C temperature rises. Here’s more from Adam Morton.
A major point of the report, obviously enough, is to illustrate the difference between limiting warming to 1.5 degrees and 2 degrees by 2100.
Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick, a research fellow at the Climate Change Research Centre at the University of New South Wales, has pulled together a good summary that we’ve adapted and expanded:
All coral reefs would basically cease to exist at 2C, whereas at 1.5C there is a good chance of saving 10-30% of existing ecosystems.
Sea level rise would be about 10cm less at 1.5C. This might not sound much, but it is significant – it would mean less salt water intrusion in low lying islands, less loss of available land and up to 10 million fewer people being exposed to risks (based on 2010 population data).
Heatwaves, which can be fatal to humans and play a part in wrecking ecosystems, would be less frequent and not last as long.
Marine heatwaves would also not happen as frequently. More marine species would survive, and the impact on fisheries and aquaculture would be reduced.
Tropical cyclones would carry less water, reducing the impact of floods.
There is a good chance that droughts would be less severe, with obvious ramifications for food security and water availability.
The overall impact on human health - in terms of the impact of vector-borne diseases, heatwaves and ozone depletion – would be reduced.
The likelihood of an Arctic Ocean free of sea ice in summer would be once per century compared with at least once per decade.
It is estimated it would prevent thawing over centuries of a permafrost area of 1.5 to 2.5m sq kms. Permafrost thawing could trigger accelerated warming as greenhouse gases it has trapped are released.
More species are likely to survive. At 1.5 degrees, 4% of vertebrates, 6% of insects and 8% of plants are expected to lose over half the geographic range in which they can live. At 2 degrees, it is 8% of vertebrates, 18% of insects and 16% of plants.
However these limits require changes on an “unprecedented scale”.
Rapid progress is being made in some areas, but needs to be picked up in transport and land management.
We need to start taking carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere in this century, by planting trees, carbon capture and storage, land management, and other “novel approaches”, but this has implications on food security and biosecurity.
Current pledges by world governments are not enough to limit rises to 1.5C.
More from the co-chairs:
Since pre industrial times human activities have already caused about 1C of global warming. We’re already seeing the consequences for people, nature and livelihoods.
If the world continues to warm at the current rate, global temperatures are likely to reach 1.5C between 2030 and 2052.
The differences limiting the rise to 1.5C intead of 2C include:
There would be less extreme weather where people live, including extreme heat, rainfal, and drought.
By 2100 sea level rises would be around 10cm lower than at 2C.
Species extinction would be lower, and there would be smaller reductions in the yields of key crops like maize, rice and wheat, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa, Douth East Asia, and South and Central America.
The proportion of the global population exposed to global warming induced water shortages would be up to 50% less than at 2C.
Several hundred million fewer people would be exposed to climate change related risk by 2050.
Limiting warming to 1.5C is not impossible but will require unprecedented transitions in all aspects of society, says Hoesung Lee.
Every bit of warming matters, he says, before handing over to co-chairs.
A huge degree of difference. New #IPCC #SR15 report spells out difference in harms between another 0.9 and 1.8 dF of warming. Lost lives, coral & maybe ice sheet. But it is unlikely world can limit warming to lower goal. https://t.co/Hjeg9wldfn pic.twitter.com/XBiGdrkHtQ
The current global state-of-play as described in the report:
Human activities have caused about 1C of global warming since pre-industrial times (expressed as a likely range of 0.8-1.2C).
We are seeing the effects of this through increased extreme weather, rising sea levels, coral bleaching and shrinking Arctic sea ice, among other changes.
We’re likely to reach 1.5C warming sometime between 2030 and 2052 on the current path. The effects of this warming would be materially and noticeably different than today. It would be worse again at 2C and higher temperature rises.
To limit warming to 1.5C we need to cut global emissions by about 45% by 2030 compared with 2010 levels.
Scientists say it could be done but it would require rapid action now. It would mean significant changes in all sectors of society. We would also need to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
Chair of the IPCC, Hoesung Lee, is now addressing media on what he calls “one of the most important reports”produced by the IPCC, and “certainly one of the most keenly awaited”.
He says previous reports gave governments a clear understanding of the implications of 2C warming, but there was “relatively little” about 1.5C.
This is the first time in IPCC’s history that all three working groups worked together to produce the report, which was put together in a very short amount of time, what the chair calls a “Herculean effort”.
The report is public.
“It’s a line in the sand and what it says to our species is that this is the moment and we must act now,” says Debra Roberts, a co-chair of the working group on impacts.
“This is the largest clarion bell from the science community and I hope it mobilises people and dents the mood of complacency.”
Read our full report from global environment editor, Jonathan Watts, here.
The authors of the landmark report by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released on Monday say urgent and unprecedented changes are needed to reach the target, which they say is affordable and feasible although it lies at the most ambitions end of the Paris agreementpledge to keep temperatures between 1.5C and 2C.
The half-degree difference could also prevent corals from being completely eradicated and ease pressure on the Arctic, according to the 1.5C study, which was launched in Incheon in South Korea after approval at a final plenary of all 195 countries that saw delegates hugging one another, with some in tears.
The IPCC press conference will start in a few minutes, and I’ll bring you updates. We’ll also have extensive reporting and analysis on the report itself.
In the meantime, here’s a recent piece on the possibility of the earth becoming a “hothouse”.
As things stand, if you add up all the things that the 190-plus countries have committed to do as part of that Paris deal, global temperatures will probably go well above 3C, writes Graham Readfearn.
We’re already at 1C of warming, so the extra half a degree isn’t far away – many scientists will say it’s already locked in, while others say there are plausible ways to stabilise temperatures at that level.
But in August, one of the world’s leading scientific journals – the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences – published a “perspective” article that has become known as the “hothouse earth” paper.
There was no new science in the paper and while it was speculative, it did raise fundamental questions about the ability of governments around the world to stop the Earth from spiralling into a “hothouse”.
Some information on the report itself, outlined by chair of the IPCC, Hoesung Lee, in a speech last week (pdf).Some information on the report itself, outlined by chair of the IPCC, Hoesung Lee, in a speech last week (pdf).
It was commissioned as part of the Paris agreement in 2016, the IPCC was invited to prepare a report assessing the impacts of 1.5C warming and related emissions pathways.It was commissioned as part of the Paris agreement in 2016, the IPCC was invited to prepare a report assessing the impacts of 1.5C warming and related emissions pathways.
“At that time, relatively little was known about the risks avoided in a 1.5C world compared with a 2C warmer world, or about the pathway of greenhouse gas emissions compatible with limiting global warming to 1.5C.”“At that time, relatively little was known about the risks avoided in a 1.5C world compared with a 2C warmer world, or about the pathway of greenhouse gas emissions compatible with limiting global warming to 1.5C.”
In February 2017 the panel announced 91 authors and review editors, from 40 countries. There are 133 contributing authors.In February 2017 the panel announced 91 authors and review editors, from 40 countries. There are 133 contributing authors.
The final report contains more than 6,000 cited references.The final report contains more than 6,000 cited references.
The first order draft attracted almost 13,000 comments from about 500 experts across 61 countries.The first order draft attracted almost 13,000 comments from about 500 experts across 61 countries.
The second order draft attracted more than 25,000 comments from 570 experts and officials in 71 countries.The second order draft attracted more than 25,000 comments from 570 experts and officials in 71 countries.
The final government draft received almost 4,000 comments from government, bringing the total amount of comments to 42,000, each of which must be addressed by the authors.The final government draft received almost 4,000 comments from government, bringing the total amount of comments to 42,000, each of which must be addressed by the authors.
Politically, the issue of global warming and how to address it is in a much more precarious situation than when this report was commissioned in 2016.Politically, the issue of global warming and how to address it is in a much more precarious situation than when this report was commissioned in 2016.
Donald Trump has pledged to withdraw the US from the Paris Accord. The Australian government - currently coming through another bout of leadership instability - has also flagged withdrawing. It was already failing its targets.Donald Trump has pledged to withdraw the US from the Paris Accord. The Australian government - currently coming through another bout of leadership instability - has also flagged withdrawing. It was already failing its targets.
Jair Bolsonaro, who today won the first round of voting in the presidential election in Brazil, has also pledged to withdraw from the Accord and to open up the Amazon for agribusiness.Jair Bolsonaro, who today won the first round of voting in the presidential election in Brazil, has also pledged to withdraw from the Accord and to open up the Amazon for agribusiness.
On the other side are low-lying island nations, already feeling the impact of rising sea levels.On the other side are low-lying island nations, already feeling the impact of rising sea levels.
The Marshall Islands has announced a plan to reach net zero emissions by 2050.The Marshall Islands has announced a plan to reach net zero emissions by 2050.
“If we can do it, so can everyone else,” said president Hilda Heine.“If we can do it, so can everyone else,” said president Hilda Heine.
In a little under an hour, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will be releasing its highly anticipated special report on global warming of 1.5C.In a little under an hour, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will be releasing its highly anticipated special report on global warming of 1.5C.
The news is not good, with the report - based on more than 6,000 scientific works - expected to warn that the world is nowhere near on track to reach its targets unless there is drastic, world-changing action, immediately.The news is not good, with the report - based on more than 6,000 scientific works - expected to warn that the world is nowhere near on track to reach its targets unless there is drastic, world-changing action, immediately.
That means a massive transformation in the way the world generates energy - phasing out fossil fuels and coal in particular, as well as how it uses transportation and grows food.That means a massive transformation in the way the world generates energy - phasing out fossil fuels and coal in particular, as well as how it uses transportation and grows food.
“It’s extraordinarily challenging to get to the 1.5C target and we are nowhere near on track to doing that,” Drew Shindell, a Duke University climate scientist and a co-author, told the Guardian last month.“It’s extraordinarily challenging to get to the 1.5C target and we are nowhere near on track to doing that,” Drew Shindell, a Duke University climate scientist and a co-author, told the Guardian last month.
There were reports of pushback during the drafting, including from Japan, South Korea, Poland Estonia, and Australia. Australia, where the government is extraordinarily pro-coal, is currently debating withdrawing from the Paris Agreement and is the world’s largest coal exporter. Its environment minister denied the claims.There were reports of pushback during the drafting, including from Japan, South Korea, Poland Estonia, and Australia. Australia, where the government is extraordinarily pro-coal, is currently debating withdrawing from the Paris Agreement and is the world’s largest coal exporter. Its environment minister denied the claims.
The world has already warmed 1C, and the 2015 Paris Agreement saw countries agree to curb rises to 2C above pre-industrialisation levels and to pursue efforts to limit the increase to 1.5C.The world has already warmed 1C, and the 2015 Paris Agreement saw countries agree to curb rises to 2C above pre-industrialisation levels and to pursue efforts to limit the increase to 1.5C.