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| IPCC climate change report calls for urgent action to phase out fossil fuels - live | IPCC climate change report calls for urgent action to phase out fossil fuels - live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| It’s a “critical moment”, says Jonathan Watts. In that press conference earlier was the looming reality that there is a growing gap between what scientists are urging and what politicians are willing to do | |
| We already know the US wants to pull out of the Paris Agreement. Brazil has thrown support behind a presidential candidate who wants to do the same. Australia’s prime minister has rejected calls from his party colleagues to join them but at the same time claims the country is on track to meet targets (spoiler: it’s probably not). | |
| “This may be the dying kicks of the fossil-fuel industry and its political lobbyists,” says Watts. “Or it could be the start of a seizure of power that will be fatal to climate stabilisation efforts. A critical moment.” | |
| The panel was repeatedly asked if it was optimistic that its report would be acted on. | |
| It said yes, and that it looked at six conditions of feasibility: is it possible within the laws of physics and chemistry, do we have the technology, and what are the investment needs? Ther report could answer yes to those four but the final two - the capacity of government and institutions to act - were out of its hands. | |
| “We’ve done our job, we’ve passed the message on. It’s their responsibility... whether they can act on it.” | |
| The decisions taken by political leaders in the next few years will be crucial because the investment cycle for power plants and transport systems is at least 10 years, says Johan Rockström, chief scientist at Conservation International and co-author of the recent Hothouse Earth report. | |
| Infastructure built now will continue to burn up carbon for decades to come if it is not re-engineered. | |
| Rockström said the political shifts in some countries should be met with a counterbalancing move in others. | |
| “Every time we get leaders in the US or Brazil taking a step back then others, particularly in Europe, should take a step forward.” | |
| Pep Canadell, the executive director of the Global Carbon Project, makes a good point - that this is likely to be the last reminder that the temperature rise can be limited to 1.5C if the is sufficient will. | |
| The report finds there are no biophysical or technical roadblocks to doing it, though he says the IPCC has misstepped by talking about what needs to be achieved decades down the line given governments don’t respond to those timescales. | |
| He spells out what would need to happen, including the almost immediate establishment of a global carbon market, massive improvements in energy efficiency, recasting of people’s diets, steps to reduce the expected peak global population and the immediate roll-out of plans to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. | |
| “Importantly, all actions required are win-wins for society and cost less than the excess climate change damage.” | |
| That’s certainly one way of putting it. | That’s certainly one way of putting it. |
| When the BBC sounds like the Onion pic.twitter.com/m4a3GbF2UT | When the BBC sounds like the Onion pic.twitter.com/m4a3GbF2UT |
| The Conversation has put together a great simplified explainer on the report “at a glance”. | The Conversation has put together a great simplified explainer on the report “at a glance”. |
| Along with some handy graphs and charts, the article notes the world will need to be carbon neutral by the year 2047 if we are to have a 66% chance of limiting warming to 1.5C. That chance drops to 50% if we take until 2058. | Along with some handy graphs and charts, the article notes the world will need to be carbon neutral by the year 2047 if we are to have a 66% chance of limiting warming to 1.5C. That chance drops to 50% if we take until 2058. |
| To do that we have to source 70-85% of electricity from renewables within the next 32 years, put a price on greenhouse emissions, and remove carbon dioxide from Earth’s atmosphere. | To do that we have to source 70-85% of electricity from renewables within the next 32 years, put a price on greenhouse emissions, and remove carbon dioxide from Earth’s atmosphere. |
| Read the full explainer here. | Read the full explainer here. |
| The Australian Academy of Science has put together a video about the report. | The Australian Academy of Science has put together a video about the report. |
| Low-lying island nations, such as those across the Pacific, have been raising their concerns for many years as they are among the first to feel the “life and death issue” of rising sea levels. | Low-lying island nations, such as those across the Pacific, have been raising their concerns for many years as they are among the first to feel the “life and death issue” of rising sea levels. |
| “Pacific Island nations have long maintained that we need “1.5 to stay alive’,” said Maria Timon Chi-Fang, Pacific outreach officer for the Pacific Calling Partnership.“My home country of Kiribati is only two metres above sea level, and sea level rise is a life-or-death issue for us. Already with 1C of warming, we are seeing more frequent and damaging storms, the loss of our crop-growing lands and freshwater resources, and our homes flooded.“Many I-Kiribati are already resigned to having to leave home as life on the islands becomes untenable, and we know many of our Pacific neighbours are facing the same crisis.“We call on Australia and other big carbon polluters to give us a fair go at preserving our culture and having the dignified, safe and secure future that we deserve.” | “Pacific Island nations have long maintained that we need “1.5 to stay alive’,” said Maria Timon Chi-Fang, Pacific outreach officer for the Pacific Calling Partnership.“My home country of Kiribati is only two metres above sea level, and sea level rise is a life-or-death issue for us. Already with 1C of warming, we are seeing more frequent and damaging storms, the loss of our crop-growing lands and freshwater resources, and our homes flooded.“Many I-Kiribati are already resigned to having to leave home as life on the islands becomes untenable, and we know many of our Pacific neighbours are facing the same crisis.“We call on Australia and other big carbon polluters to give us a fair go at preserving our culture and having the dignified, safe and secure future that we deserve.” |
| Still in Australia, which I earlier noted was reportedly among nations to push back on elements of the report about a coal phase-out (the government denies this): | Still in Australia, which I earlier noted was reportedly among nations to push back on elements of the report about a coal phase-out (the government denies this): |
| Prime minister Scott Morrison – under fire for having recently abandoned a policy to cut emissions from electricity – said his government would “look at the report carefully” but claimed “only a year ago the same report said that the policies Australia has was right on the money”. | Prime minister Scott Morrison – under fire for having recently abandoned a policy to cut emissions from electricity – said his government would “look at the report carefully” but claimed “only a year ago the same report said that the policies Australia has was right on the money”. |
| It isn’t clear which report he was referring to – the special report is a one-off and the IPCC last published a major assessment in 2013-14. Morrison went on to say Australia was responsible for a little more than 1% of global emissions. | It isn’t clear which report he was referring to – the special report is a one-off and the IPCC last published a major assessment in 2013-14. Morrison went on to say Australia was responsible for a little more than 1% of global emissions. |
| There are a lot bigger players than us out there ... emissions per capita in Australia are at their lowest level for decades ... but at the end of the day we want to ensure electricity prices are lower. | There are a lot bigger players than us out there ... emissions per capita in Australia are at their lowest level for decades ... but at the end of the day we want to ensure electricity prices are lower. |
| Australia, of course, is heavily reliant on coal, which the report says would basically need to be finished as an energy source by mid-century. | Australia, of course, is heavily reliant on coal, which the report says would basically need to be finished as an energy source by mid-century. |
| The opposition leader Bill Shorten – according to opinion polls, favoured to take power at an election next year – said fossil fuels would not disappear but he wanted to see more renewable energy. He has promised it would deliver 50% of electricity by 2030, up from about 20% today. | The opposition leader Bill Shorten – according to opinion polls, favoured to take power at an election next year – said fossil fuels would not disappear but he wanted to see more renewable energy. He has promised it would deliver 50% of electricity by 2030, up from about 20% today. |
| There’s an interesting part of the report which relates to coral, and specifically the large-scale bleaching events which hit the Great Barrier Reef, off Australia’s north-east coast, in recent years. | There’s an interesting part of the report which relates to coral, and specifically the large-scale bleaching events which hit the Great Barrier Reef, off Australia’s north-east coast, in recent years. |
| The bleaching events were predicted, but came far sooner than expected, leading the report to conclude the research community had possibly underestimated the impact of global warming on coral. | The bleaching events were predicted, but came far sooner than expected, leading the report to conclude the research community had possibly underestimated the impact of global warming on coral. |
| Interesting admission in full #IPCC #SR15 report on impacts of warming on corals. ".. the research community has under-estimated climate risks for coral reefs." pic.twitter.com/UOfHSs3lqL | Interesting admission in full #IPCC #SR15 report on impacts of warming on corals. ".. the research community has under-estimated climate risks for coral reefs." pic.twitter.com/UOfHSs3lqL |
| Adam Morton reports here that the difference between a rise of 1.5C instead of 2C is a matter of survival for the Great Barrier Reef. | Adam Morton reports here that the difference between a rise of 1.5C instead of 2C is a matter of survival for the Great Barrier Reef. |
| Today’s report found that coral reefs were likely to decline between 70% and 90% if the temperature increased to 1.5C. | Today’s report found that coral reefs were likely to decline between 70% and 90% if the temperature increased to 1.5C. |
| Dire enough, to be sure, but if global warming reaches 2C, more than 99% of coral reefs were projected to decline. | Dire enough, to be sure, but if global warming reaches 2C, more than 99% of coral reefs were projected to decline. |
| “Going to 2C and above gets to a point where corals can no longer grow back, or you have annual bleaching events,” said Professor Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, a coordinating lead author on the report and a coral reefs expert with the University of Queensland. | “Going to 2C and above gets to a point where corals can no longer grow back, or you have annual bleaching events,” said Professor Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, a coordinating lead author on the report and a coral reefs expert with the University of Queensland. |
| “On the other hand, at 1.5C there’s still significant areas which are not heating up or not exposed to the same levels of stress such that they would lose coral, and so we’re fairly confident that we would have parts of those ecosystems remaining.” | “On the other hand, at 1.5C there’s still significant areas which are not heating up or not exposed to the same levels of stress such that they would lose coral, and so we’re fairly confident that we would have parts of those ecosystems remaining.” |
| I am keeping one ear on the press conference as I bring you the international reaction to this report. | I am keeping one ear on the press conference as I bring you the international reaction to this report. |
| The panel has just been asked if the fossil fuel industry was represented. | The panel has just been asked if the fossil fuel industry was represented. |
| Yes, in a word - the plenary sessions included observer organisations, and “they were in the room”. | Yes, in a word - the plenary sessions included observer organisations, and “they were in the room”. |
| Outside the press conference, the interim chief executive of the World Coal Association, Katie Warrick, tells us they believe there is still a future for coal. | Outside the press conference, the interim chief executive of the World Coal Association, Katie Warrick, tells us they believe there is still a future for coal. |
| “While we are still reviewing the draft, the World Coal Association believes that any credible pathway to meeting the 1.5C scenario must focus on emissions rather than fuel. That is why [carbon capture and storage] is so vital. | “While we are still reviewing the draft, the World Coal Association believes that any credible pathway to meeting the 1.5C scenario must focus on emissions rather than fuel. That is why [carbon capture and storage] is so vital. |
| Forecasts from the [International Energy Agency] and other credible experts continue to see a role for coal for the foreseeable future. Going into COP24, we will be campaigning for greater action on all low emissions technologies including CCS.” | Forecasts from the [International Energy Agency] and other credible experts continue to see a role for coal for the foreseeable future. Going into COP24, we will be campaigning for greater action on all low emissions technologies including CCS.” |
| The report has said fossil fuels, in particular coal, must be phased out. It’s probably a good moment for me to re-up this quote from the panel earlier: | The report has said fossil fuels, in particular coal, must be phased out. It’s probably a good moment for me to re-up this quote from the panel earlier: |
| “All options need to be exercised... We can make choices about how much of each option we use... but the idea you can leave anything out is impossible.” | “All options need to be exercised... We can make choices about how much of each option we use... but the idea you can leave anything out is impossible.” |
| And this: | And this: |
| Q: How soon do coal, oil, and natural gas need to be phased out entirely?IPCC: "The report is quite clear ... all pathways require quite significant changes in the pattern of fossil fuel use. ... Coal will have to be reduced very, very substantially by mid-century." | Q: How soon do coal, oil, and natural gas need to be phased out entirely?IPCC: "The report is quite clear ... all pathways require quite significant changes in the pattern of fossil fuel use. ... Coal will have to be reduced very, very substantially by mid-century." |
| Ban Ki-moon, Former United Nations Secretary General: | Ban Ki-moon, Former United Nations Secretary General: |
| “Equity, inclusivity and cooperation must underpin our collective response to meet the 1.5°C target, with states acting in the same spirit that led to the Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals. Climate change respects no borders; our actions must transcend all frontiers.” | “Equity, inclusivity and cooperation must underpin our collective response to meet the 1.5°C target, with states acting in the same spirit that led to the Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals. Climate change respects no borders; our actions must transcend all frontiers.” |
| Gro Harlem Brundtland, Acting Chair of The Elders, Former Prime Minister of Norway: | Gro Harlem Brundtland, Acting Chair of The Elders, Former Prime Minister of Norway: |
| “This report is not a wake-up call, it is a ticking time bomb. Climate activists have been calling for decades for leaders to show responsibility and take urgent action, but we have barely scratched the surface of what needs to be done. Further failure would be an unconscionable betrayal of the planet and future generations.” | “This report is not a wake-up call, it is a ticking time bomb. Climate activists have been calling for decades for leaders to show responsibility and take urgent action, but we have barely scratched the surface of what needs to be done. Further failure would be an unconscionable betrayal of the planet and future generations.” |
| Mary Robinson, Former President of Ireland, Former UN High Commissioner for Human Rights and Former UN Special Envoy on Climate Change: | Mary Robinson, Former President of Ireland, Former UN High Commissioner for Human Rights and Former UN Special Envoy on Climate Change: |
| “The IPCC report starkly sets out the challenges of securing a just transition to a 1.5°C world, and the urgency with which this needs to be accomplished. This can only be done by a people-centred, rights-based approach with justice and solidarity at its heart. The time for talking is long past; leaders need to step up, serve their people and act immediately.” | “The IPCC report starkly sets out the challenges of securing a just transition to a 1.5°C world, and the urgency with which this needs to be accomplished. This can only be done by a people-centred, rights-based approach with justice and solidarity at its heart. The time for talking is long past; leaders need to step up, serve their people and act immediately.” |
| Ricardo Lagos, Former President of Chile, Former UN Special Envoy on Climate Change: | Ricardo Lagos, Former President of Chile, Former UN Special Envoy on Climate Change: |
| “The threats posed by climate change to planetary health cannot be understated. The time for stating the scale of the problem has passed, and we now need to move to urgent, radical action to keep temperature rises to 1.5°C. It cannot be left to climate scientists and activists alone – it is a battle that must be joined by all those with an interest in our future survival.” | “The threats posed by climate change to planetary health cannot be understated. The time for stating the scale of the problem has passed, and we now need to move to urgent, radical action to keep temperature rises to 1.5°C. It cannot be left to climate scientists and activists alone – it is a battle that must be joined by all those with an interest in our future survival.” |
| Ernesto Zedillo, Former President of Mexico: | Ernesto Zedillo, Former President of Mexico: |
| “If we allow temperatures to rise above 1.5°C then all the progress on prosperity, growth and development risks being wiped out. Our economic paradigm needs to shift to promote zero-carbon, climate-resilient policies. This means putting a price on carbon and investing in new, sustainable technologies, but also giving those most affected a voice in developing new growth models.” | “If we allow temperatures to rise above 1.5°C then all the progress on prosperity, growth and development risks being wiped out. Our economic paradigm needs to shift to promote zero-carbon, climate-resilient policies. This means putting a price on carbon and investing in new, sustainable technologies, but also giving those most affected a voice in developing new growth models.” |
| Amjad Abdulla, chief negotiator for the Alliance of Small Island States, and IPCC Board member: | Amjad Abdulla, chief negotiator for the Alliance of Small Island States, and IPCC Board member: |
| “The report shows that we only have the slimmest of opportunities remaining to avoid unthinkable damage to the climate system that supports life as we know it. I have no doubt that historians will look back at these findings as one of the defining moments in the course of human affairs. I urge all civilized nations to take responsibility for it by dramatically increasing our efforts to cut the emissions responsible for the crisis and to do what is necessary to help vulnerable people respond to some of the devastating consequences we now know can no longer be avoided.” | “The report shows that we only have the slimmest of opportunities remaining to avoid unthinkable damage to the climate system that supports life as we know it. I have no doubt that historians will look back at these findings as one of the defining moments in the course of human affairs. I urge all civilized nations to take responsibility for it by dramatically increasing our efforts to cut the emissions responsible for the crisis and to do what is necessary to help vulnerable people respond to some of the devastating consequences we now know can no longer be avoided.” |