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IPCC climate change report calls for urgent action to phase out fossil fuels - live IPCC climate change report calls for urgent action to phase out fossil fuels - live
(35 minutes later)
There’s an interesting part of the report which relates to coral, and specifically the large-scale bleaching events which hit the Great Barrier Reef, off Australia’s north east coast, in recent years.
The bleaching events were predicted, but came far sooner than expected, leading the report to conclude the research community had possibly underestimated the impact of global warming on coral.
Interesting admission in full #IPCC #SR15 report on impacts of warming on corals. ".. the research community has under-estimated climate risks for coral reefs." pic.twitter.com/UOfHSs3lqL
Adam Morton reports here that the difference between a rise of 1.5C instead of 2C is a matter of survival for the Great Barrier Reef.
Today’s report found that coral reefs were likely to decline between 70% and 90% if the temperature increased to 1.5C.
Dire enough, to be sure, but if global warming reaches 2C, more than 99% of coral reefs were projected to decline.
“Going to 2 degrees and above gets to a point where corals can no longer grow back, or you have annual bleaching events,” said Professor Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, a coordinating lead author on the report and a coral reefs expert with the University of Queensland.
“On the other hand, at 1.5 degrees Celsius there’s still significant areas which are not heating up or not exposed to the same levels of stress such that they would lose coral, and so we’re fairly confident that we would have parts of those ecosystems remaining.”
I am keeping one ear on the press conference as I bring you the international reaction to this report.
The panel has just been asked if the fossil fuel industry was represented.
Yes, in a word - the plenary sessions included observer organisations, and “they were in the room”.
Outside the press conference, the interim chief executive of the World Coal Association, Katie Warrick, tells us they believe there is still a future for coal.
“While we are still reviewing the draft, the World Coal Association believes that any credible pathway to meeting the 1.5C scenario must focus on emissions rather than fuel. That is why [carbon capture and storage] is so vital.
Forecasts from the [International Energy Agency] and other credible experts continue to see a role for coal for the foreseeable future. Going into COP24, we will be campaigning for greater action on all low emissions technologies including CCS.”
The report has said fossil fuels, in particular coal, must be phased out. It’s probably a good moment for me to re-up this quote from the panel earlier:
“All options need to be exercised... We can make choices about how much of each option we use... but the idea you can leave anything out is impossible.”
And this:
Q: How soon do coal, oil, and natural gas need to be phased out entirely?IPCC: "The report is quite clear ... all pathways require quite significant changes in the pattern of fossil fuel use. ... Coal will have to be reduced very, very substantially by mid-century."
Ban Ki-moon, Former United Nations Secretary General:Ban Ki-moon, Former United Nations Secretary General:
“Equity, inclusivity and cooperation must underpin our collective response to meet the 1.5°C target, with states acting in the same spirit that led to the Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals. Climate change respects no borders; our actions must transcend all frontiers.”“Equity, inclusivity and cooperation must underpin our collective response to meet the 1.5°C target, with states acting in the same spirit that led to the Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals. Climate change respects no borders; our actions must transcend all frontiers.”
Gro Harlem Brundtland, Acting Chair of The Elders, Former Prime Minister of Norway:Gro Harlem Brundtland, Acting Chair of The Elders, Former Prime Minister of Norway:
“This report is not a wake-up call, it is a ticking time bomb. Climate activists have been calling for decades for leaders to show responsibility and take urgent action, but we have barely scratched the surface of what needs to be done. Further failure would be an unconscionable betrayal of the planet and future generations.”“This report is not a wake-up call, it is a ticking time bomb. Climate activists have been calling for decades for leaders to show responsibility and take urgent action, but we have barely scratched the surface of what needs to be done. Further failure would be an unconscionable betrayal of the planet and future generations.”
Mary Robinson, Former President of Ireland, Former UN High Commissioner for Human Rights and Former UN Special Envoy on Climate Change:Mary Robinson, Former President of Ireland, Former UN High Commissioner for Human Rights and Former UN Special Envoy on Climate Change:
“The IPCC report starkly sets out the challenges of securing a just transition to a 1.5°C world, and the urgency with which this needs to be accomplished. This can only be done by a people-centred, rights-based approach with justice and solidarity at its heart. The time for talking is long past; leaders need to step up, serve their people and act immediately.”“The IPCC report starkly sets out the challenges of securing a just transition to a 1.5°C world, and the urgency with which this needs to be accomplished. This can only be done by a people-centred, rights-based approach with justice and solidarity at its heart. The time for talking is long past; leaders need to step up, serve their people and act immediately.”
Ricardo Lagos, Former President of Chile, Former UN Special Envoy on Climate Change:Ricardo Lagos, Former President of Chile, Former UN Special Envoy on Climate Change:
“The threats posed by climate change to planetary health cannot be understated. The time for stating the scale of the problem has passed, and we now need to move to urgent, radical action to keep temperature rises to 1.5°C. It cannot be left to climate scientists and activists alone – it is a battle that must be joined by all those with an interest in our future survival.”“The threats posed by climate change to planetary health cannot be understated. The time for stating the scale of the problem has passed, and we now need to move to urgent, radical action to keep temperature rises to 1.5°C. It cannot be left to climate scientists and activists alone – it is a battle that must be joined by all those with an interest in our future survival.”
Ernesto Zedillo, Former President of Mexico:Ernesto Zedillo, Former President of Mexico:
“If we allow temperatures to rise above 1.5°C then all the progress on prosperity, growth and development risks being wiped out. Our economic paradigm needs to shift to promote zero-carbon, climate-resilient policies. This means putting a price on carbon and investing in new, sustainable technologies, but also giving those most affected a voice in developing new growth models.”“If we allow temperatures to rise above 1.5°C then all the progress on prosperity, growth and development risks being wiped out. Our economic paradigm needs to shift to promote zero-carbon, climate-resilient policies. This means putting a price on carbon and investing in new, sustainable technologies, but also giving those most affected a voice in developing new growth models.”
Amjad Abdulla, chief negotiator for the Alliance of Small Island States, and IPCC Board member:Amjad Abdulla, chief negotiator for the Alliance of Small Island States, and IPCC Board member:
“The report shows that we only have the slimmest of opportunities remaining to avoid unthinkable damage to the climate system that supports life as we know it. I have no doubt that historians will look back at these findings as one of the defining moments in the course of human affairs. I urge all civilized nations to take responsibility for it by dramatically increasing our efforts to cut the emissions responsible for the crisis and to do what is necessary to help vulnerable people respond to some of the devastating consequences we now know can no longer be avoided.”“The report shows that we only have the slimmest of opportunities remaining to avoid unthinkable damage to the climate system that supports life as we know it. I have no doubt that historians will look back at these findings as one of the defining moments in the course of human affairs. I urge all civilized nations to take responsibility for it by dramatically increasing our efforts to cut the emissions responsible for the crisis and to do what is necessary to help vulnerable people respond to some of the devastating consequences we now know can no longer be avoided.”
The Trump administration is a “rogue outlier” says former vice president, Al Gore.The Trump administration is a “rogue outlier” says former vice president, Al Gore.
Responding to the IPCC report, Gore said the Paris agreement was “monumental” but now nations had to go further, and time was running out.Responding to the IPCC report, Gore said the Paris agreement was “monumental” but now nations had to go further, and time was running out.
“Solving the climate crisis requires vision and leadership. Unfortunately, the Trump administration has become a rogue outlier in its shortsighted attempt to prop up the dirty fossil fuel industries of the past. The administration is in direct conflict with American businesses, states, cities, and citizens leading the transformation.”“Solving the climate crisis requires vision and leadership. Unfortunately, the Trump administration has become a rogue outlier in its shortsighted attempt to prop up the dirty fossil fuel industries of the past. The administration is in direct conflict with American businesses, states, cities, and citizens leading the transformation.”
The IPCC report is a wake-up call for slumbering world leaders,” says Andrew Steer, President & CEO, World Resources Institute.The IPCC report is a wake-up call for slumbering world leaders,” says Andrew Steer, President & CEO, World Resources Institute.
“The difference in impacts between 1.5 and 2C of warming is large, and potentially game changing. And, the devastation that would come with today’s 3-4C trajectory would be vastly greater. Each tenth of a degree matters – and tragically it’s the poor who will be most affected.”“The difference in impacts between 1.5 and 2C of warming is large, and potentially game changing. And, the devastation that would come with today’s 3-4C trajectory would be vastly greater. Each tenth of a degree matters – and tragically it’s the poor who will be most affected.”
The consequences of #climate change in a 2˚C world are far greater than with 1.5˚C of warming. But the world is far off track from either. https://t.co/opTouzN3qg #SR15 #IPCC pic.twitter.com/W4weC6p3taThe consequences of #climate change in a 2˚C world are far greater than with 1.5˚C of warming. But the world is far off track from either. https://t.co/opTouzN3qg #SR15 #IPCC pic.twitter.com/W4weC6p3ta
So is the 1.5C target feasible? Thats the big early question.So is the 1.5C target feasible? Thats the big early question.
Professor Piers Forster from the University of Leeds is one of the lead authors of the Special Report chapter that looks at the different “pathways” that governments could take. He tells me he is “exhausted but elated” the report was finished on time (one of the sessions went for 30 hours straight).Professor Piers Forster from the University of Leeds is one of the lead authors of the Special Report chapter that looks at the different “pathways” that governments could take. He tells me he is “exhausted but elated” the report was finished on time (one of the sessions went for 30 hours straight).
Forster says the report “shows that limiting warming to 1.5C is barely feasible and every year we delay the window of feasibility halves. Nevertheless, if we were to succeed, we go on to show that benefits across society will be huge and the world will be all the richer for it. It’s a battle worth winning.”Forster says the report “shows that limiting warming to 1.5C is barely feasible and every year we delay the window of feasibility halves. Nevertheless, if we were to succeed, we go on to show that benefits across society will be huge and the world will be all the richer for it. It’s a battle worth winning.”
Here’s something to understand. The report sets out four different “pathways” that governments could choose. As one of the IPCC co-chairs Jim Skea says, “it’s possible within the laws of physics and chemistry… it’s up to the governments to decide that last step of feasibility.”Here’s something to understand. The report sets out four different “pathways” that governments could choose. As one of the IPCC co-chairs Jim Skea says, “it’s possible within the laws of physics and chemistry… it’s up to the governments to decide that last step of feasibility.”
There is an absolute mountain of reaction coming through to the report. I’ll bring it to you shortly.There is an absolute mountain of reaction coming through to the report. I’ll bring it to you shortly.
Here’s a piece written by Nicholas Stern, IG Patel professor of economics and government and chair of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics and Political Science.Here’s a piece written by Nicholas Stern, IG Patel professor of economics and government and chair of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics and Political Science.
Stern authored the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change for the UK government.Stern authored the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change for the UK government.
Human activities are currently emitting about 42bn tonnes of carbon dioxide every year, and at that rate the carbon budget – allowing us a 50-50 chance of keeping warming to 1.5C – would be exhausted within 20 years.Human activities are currently emitting about 42bn tonnes of carbon dioxide every year, and at that rate the carbon budget – allowing us a 50-50 chance of keeping warming to 1.5C – would be exhausted within 20 years.
Even 1.5C of warming would have brutal consequences, according to the report. Poor people, in particular, would suffer as the threat of food and water shortages increase in some parts of the world.Even 1.5C of warming would have brutal consequences, according to the report. Poor people, in particular, would suffer as the threat of food and water shortages increase in some parts of the world.
But the report makes clear that allowing warming to reach 2C would create risks that any reasonable person would regard as deeply dangerous.But the report makes clear that allowing warming to reach 2C would create risks that any reasonable person would regard as deeply dangerous.
Question: What did it feel like personally, as humans, compiling this report?Question: What did it feel like personally, as humans, compiling this report?
“It’s a tremendous collective endeavour.”“It’s a tremendous collective endeavour.”
“There is space [to act] but the space is shrinking. We can still do it as a universal humanity, and I think that was the spirit of this.”“There is space [to act] but the space is shrinking. We can still do it as a universal humanity, and I think that was the spirit of this.”
“The urgency of the issue is being seen because climate change is shaping the future of our civilisation. If action is not taken it will take the planet into an unprecedented climate situation [and] the scale of the changes humans would have to implement... is unprecedented... This report is a milestone in conveying that message.”“The urgency of the issue is being seen because climate change is shaping the future of our civilisation. If action is not taken it will take the planet into an unprecedented climate situation [and] the scale of the changes humans would have to implement... is unprecedented... This report is a milestone in conveying that message.”
Some pretty direct statements coming from the panel towards the end of the press conference.Some pretty direct statements coming from the panel towards the end of the press conference.
The report shows we are at a crossroads, and what happens between now and 2030 is critical, especially for Co2 emissions. If we don’t act now and have substantial reductions in emissions over the next decade we are making it very challenging to impossible to keep global warming to just 1.5C.The report shows we are at a crossroads, and what happens between now and 2030 is critical, especially for Co2 emissions. If we don’t act now and have substantial reductions in emissions over the next decade we are making it very challenging to impossible to keep global warming to just 1.5C.
Asked by a reporter about the difference in benefits of reforestation or carbon emission reductions, the panel has a stark response:Asked by a reporter about the difference in benefits of reforestation or carbon emission reductions, the panel has a stark response:
The word ‘or’ does not work in relation to reductions. The only linking word you can use is ‘and’.The word ‘or’ does not work in relation to reductions. The only linking word you can use is ‘and’.
“All options need to be exercised... We can make choices about how much of each option we use... but the idea you can leave anything out is impossible.”“All options need to be exercised... We can make choices about how much of each option we use... but the idea you can leave anything out is impossible.”
One of the key questions repeatedly coming up is whether world governments will act on the report’s warnings and recommendations.One of the key questions repeatedly coming up is whether world governments will act on the report’s warnings and recommendations.
This observation is from our global environment editor, formerly Latin America correspondent.This observation is from our global environment editor, formerly Latin America correspondent.
World scientists say forests are essential if global warming is to keep to 1.5C on the same day that 46% of Brazilians vote for a presidential candidate who has vowed to open the Amazon to agribusiness. https://t.co/67KFPKBV18World scientists say forests are essential if global warming is to keep to 1.5C on the same day that 46% of Brazilians vote for a presidential candidate who has vowed to open the Amazon to agribusiness. https://t.co/67KFPKBV18
Question: What consumer aspects does the report tackle? What lifestyle changes can people make?Question: What consumer aspects does the report tackle? What lifestyle changes can people make?
Answer: The report is also clear that everyone has the means to act relating to daily choices. Energy demands and diets are both key parts of the pathways to reductions.Answer: The report is also clear that everyone has the means to act relating to daily choices. Energy demands and diets are both key parts of the pathways to reductions.
The presentation is done, I’ll now bring you some key Q&A’s from the floor.The presentation is done, I’ll now bring you some key Q&A’s from the floor.
Question: Every IPCC report suggests greenhouse gases need to be reduced urgently. What’s new about this report?Question: Every IPCC report suggests greenhouse gases need to be reduced urgently. What’s new about this report?
Answer: The report is new in providing clear knowledge about differences in risks and impact from half a degree warning, with robust findings that weren’t previously available. “It’s very clear that half a degree matters”.Answer: The report is new in providing clear knowledge about differences in risks and impact from half a degree warning, with robust findings that weren’t previously available. “It’s very clear that half a degree matters”.
Question: How optimistic are you on a scale from one to 10?Question: How optimistic are you on a scale from one to 10?
Answer: One thing the report did not aspire to do was asses feasibility. We identified six different conditions that needed to be met for 1.5C to be achievable.Answer: One thing the report did not aspire to do was asses feasibility. We identified six different conditions that needed to be met for 1.5C to be achievable.
One of those was is it possible within the laws of physics and chemistry? Yes it is.One of those was is it possible within the laws of physics and chemistry? Yes it is.
Do we have the techonology, what are the investment needs?Do we have the techonology, what are the investment needs?
But two things that can’t be answered by scientists are the political and institutional feasibility.But two things that can’t be answered by scientists are the political and institutional feasibility.
“We’ve done our job, we’ve passed the message on. It’s their responsibility... whether they can act on it.”“We’ve done our job, we’ve passed the message on. It’s their responsibility... whether they can act on it.”
Question: What about the US pulling out of Paris?Question: What about the US pulling out of Paris?
Answer: This is a literature review, and we haven’t found literature out there that looks at the implication of the US pulling out of Paris. We’ve sent a clear signal to collectivity countries, of which the US is still one.Answer: This is a literature review, and we haven’t found literature out there that looks at the implication of the US pulling out of Paris. We’ve sent a clear signal to collectivity countries, of which the US is still one.
The report is clear that reducing emissions early on is needed to prevent overshoot. If we overshoot 1.5C global warning, then we would rely on carbon dioxide removal to go back. Early action to reduce emissions is possible, there are options are available. But there is an urgent need to accelerate.The report is clear that reducing emissions early on is needed to prevent overshoot. If we overshoot 1.5C global warning, then we would rely on carbon dioxide removal to go back. Early action to reduce emissions is possible, there are options are available. But there is an urgent need to accelerate.
We earlier heard from the co-chairs of the report a summary of the differences between 1.5C and 2C temperature rises. Here’s more from Adam Morton.We earlier heard from the co-chairs of the report a summary of the differences between 1.5C and 2C temperature rises. Here’s more from Adam Morton.
A major point of the report, obviously enough, is to illustrate the difference between limiting warming to 1.5 degrees and 2 degrees by 2100.A major point of the report, obviously enough, is to illustrate the difference between limiting warming to 1.5 degrees and 2 degrees by 2100.
Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick, a research fellow at the Climate Change Research Centre at the University of New South Wales, has pulled together a good summary that we’ve adapted and expanded:Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick, a research fellow at the Climate Change Research Centre at the University of New South Wales, has pulled together a good summary that we’ve adapted and expanded:
All coral reefs would basically cease to exist at 2C, whereas at 1.5C there is a good chance of saving 10-30% of existing ecosystems.All coral reefs would basically cease to exist at 2C, whereas at 1.5C there is a good chance of saving 10-30% of existing ecosystems.
Sea level rise would be about 10cm less at 1.5C. This might not sound much, but it is significant – it would mean less salt water intrusion in low lying islands, less loss of available land and up to 10 million fewer people being exposed to risks (based on 2010 population data).Sea level rise would be about 10cm less at 1.5C. This might not sound much, but it is significant – it would mean less salt water intrusion in low lying islands, less loss of available land and up to 10 million fewer people being exposed to risks (based on 2010 population data).
Heatwaves, which can be fatal to humans and play a part in wrecking ecosystems, would be less frequent and not last as long.Heatwaves, which can be fatal to humans and play a part in wrecking ecosystems, would be less frequent and not last as long.
Marine heatwaves would also not happen as frequently. More marine species would survive, and the impact on fisheries and aquaculture would be reduced.Marine heatwaves would also not happen as frequently. More marine species would survive, and the impact on fisheries and aquaculture would be reduced.
Tropical cyclones would carry less water, reducing the impact of floods.Tropical cyclones would carry less water, reducing the impact of floods.
There is a good chance that droughts would be less severe, with obvious ramifications for food security and water availability.There is a good chance that droughts would be less severe, with obvious ramifications for food security and water availability.
The overall impact on human health - in terms of the impact of vector-borne diseases, heatwaves and ozone depletion – would be reduced.The overall impact on human health - in terms of the impact of vector-borne diseases, heatwaves and ozone depletion – would be reduced.
The likelihood of an Arctic Ocean free of sea ice in summer would be once per century compared with at least once per decade.The likelihood of an Arctic Ocean free of sea ice in summer would be once per century compared with at least once per decade.
It is estimated it would prevent thawing over centuries of a permafrost area of 1.5 to 2.5m sq kms. Permafrost thawing could trigger accelerated warming as greenhouse gases it has trapped are released.It is estimated it would prevent thawing over centuries of a permafrost area of 1.5 to 2.5m sq kms. Permafrost thawing could trigger accelerated warming as greenhouse gases it has trapped are released.
More species are likely to survive. At 1.5 degrees, 4% of vertebrates, 6% of insects and 8% of plants are expected to lose over half the geographic range in which they can live. At 2 degrees, it is 8% of vertebrates, 18% of insects and 16% of plants.More species are likely to survive. At 1.5 degrees, 4% of vertebrates, 6% of insects and 8% of plants are expected to lose over half the geographic range in which they can live. At 2 degrees, it is 8% of vertebrates, 18% of insects and 16% of plants.