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| Has Theresa May finally exhausted her colleagues' patience? | Has Theresa May finally exhausted her colleagues' patience? |
| (about 2 hours later) | |
| Theresa May has emerged, battered but unbowed, from so many confrontations with one or other wing of her fractious party over the past two years that survival against the odds has become her best known political trait. | Theresa May has emerged, battered but unbowed, from so many confrontations with one or other wing of her fractious party over the past two years that survival against the odds has become her best known political trait. |
| But the dramatic departure of three MPs on Wednesday, to cross the floor and join eight ex-Labour colleagues on the opposition benches, sharpened the extraordinary risks she faces in the days and weeks ahead. | But the dramatic departure of three MPs on Wednesday, to cross the floor and join eight ex-Labour colleagues on the opposition benches, sharpened the extraordinary risks she faces in the days and weeks ahead. |
| Moderate Tory MPs have warned for some time that they are prepared to defy the whips – or even resign from their party – in order to ensure the risk of a no-deal Brexit is removed. | Moderate Tory MPs have warned for some time that they are prepared to defy the whips – or even resign from their party – in order to ensure the risk of a no-deal Brexit is removed. |
| The existence of the fledgling Independent Group makes those threats more credible, by creating a safe and welcoming place for these refuseniks to go, and amplifying their arguments about the risks of no deal and the rightward lurch of their party. | The existence of the fledgling Independent Group makes those threats more credible, by creating a safe and welcoming place for these refuseniks to go, and amplifying their arguments about the risks of no deal and the rightward lurch of their party. |
| May has repeatedly managed to survive potential crunch moments by winning a few more days or weeks’ grace from her exasperated colleagues. | May has repeatedly managed to survive potential crunch moments by winning a few more days or weeks’ grace from her exasperated colleagues. |
| Typically, she has done so by promising a bit more Brexit process: meetings, consultations with “senior parliamentarians”, technical talks. | Typically, she has done so by promising a bit more Brexit process: meetings, consultations with “senior parliamentarians”, technical talks. |
| That is unlikely to wash this Wednesday, with scores of her own troops, including many ministers, saying their patience has been exhausted and they are minded to defy Tory whips and vote to delay Brexit if a deal has not been reached and ratified in time for 29 March. | That is unlikely to wash this Wednesday, with scores of her own troops, including many ministers, saying their patience has been exhausted and they are minded to defy Tory whips and vote to delay Brexit if a deal has not been reached and ratified in time for 29 March. |
| It looks highly likely that unless she promises to request an extension of Article 50 herself – which would enrage the Brexiters – parliament will force her to do so. | It looks highly likely that unless she promises to request an extension of Article 50 herself – which would enrage the Brexiters – parliament will force her to do so. |
| She will then face a final frantic rush to secure changes to the Brexit deal that she can put before parliament, and present her party’s rightwingers with the choice laid out by Olly Robbins in an unguarded late-night chat: back me, or your precious Brexit will be delayed, giving those pesky People’s Vote campaigners even longer to get their act together. | She will then face a final frantic rush to secure changes to the Brexit deal that she can put before parliament, and present her party’s rightwingers with the choice laid out by Olly Robbins in an unguarded late-night chat: back me, or your precious Brexit will be delayed, giving those pesky People’s Vote campaigners even longer to get their act together. |
| On that basis, she may finally – just – drag her deal over the line. But along the way, she has exasperated just about every Tory MP. | On that basis, she may finally – just – drag her deal over the line. But along the way, she has exasperated just about every Tory MP. |
| Those who know May well say that holding together the party she loves has been her guiding principle as she has navigated Brexit. | Those who know May well say that holding together the party she loves has been her guiding principle as she has navigated Brexit. |
| Over and again, she has flatly refused to seek the cross-party consensus the EU27 had hoped to see emerge. | Over and again, she has flatly refused to seek the cross-party consensus the EU27 had hoped to see emerge. |
| Instead, she has focused on containing the contending forces on her own backbenches, believing the public didn’t vote for the “politicians’ Brexit” that would result if she tacked towards a Norway-style deal to bring more Labour votes on board. | Instead, she has focused on containing the contending forces on her own backbenches, believing the public didn’t vote for the “politicians’ Brexit” that would result if she tacked towards a Norway-style deal to bring more Labour votes on board. |
| The former foreign secretary consistently tops polls of party members, but will have to get on the final shortlist of two from which they get to pick. He is less popular in Westminster than around the country, and moderate MPs will try to prevent him making the final round. There are questions over whether he can attract centre-ground voters. Johnson is the politician most associated with Brexit, and a hard Brexit at that. Plausibility rating 3/5 | |
| Johnson’s replacement as foreign secretary was once seen as the ultimate safe pair of hands after his long stint at health. But his reputation took a serious knock at the party’s conference with an over-the-top comparison between the EU and the Soviet Union. An increasingly Eurosceptic party will remember Hunt supported remain in the referendum – and even briefly suggested the UK could negotiate a Norway-style Brexit deal, subject to a second referendum. Plausibility rating 4/5 | |
| The work and pensions secretary has wasted little time on her return to government, a few months after quitting as home secretary over the Windrush scandal. A leading remainer in 2016, she has become the principal opponent of a no-deal Brexit, indicating she would support a backbench amendment to extend article 50 if Theresa May cannot get her deal through parliament. This may not endear her to Eurosceptics. Plausibility rating 3/5 | |
| The home secretary has sought to demonstrate his credentials by espousing a law and order agenda. He has not been afraid to take on May, either, demanding the police make more use of stop-and-search powers. But while this may play well in Tory circles, Javid can push too far to the right: stripping Shamima Begum of her citizenship has damaged credibility among BAME voters. Plausibility rating 4/5 | |
| The former Brexit secretary has courted the right of the party since he resigned last November, and hopes to position himself as an alternative to Johnson. Raab has the advantage of being a longstanding Brexiter. But his actions will be scrutinised, not least his comment in 2011 that feminists were “among the most obnoxious bigots”. Plausibility rating 1/5 | |
| The energetic environment minister’s torpedoing of Johnson’s leadership campaign in 2016 has not been forgotten. But Gove has tried to be loyal since. While some have struggled under the weight of Brexit, Gove has sought to reboot his image by pushing centre-ground issues, with a war on plastics that has won praise from environmentalists. Plausibility rating 2/5 | |
| Dan Sabbagh | |
| After the general election of 2017, when her majority was wiped out and George Osborne described her as a “dead woman walking”, she could have succumbed to the logic of the newly hung parliament and announced a change of tack. | After the general election of 2017, when her majority was wiped out and George Osborne described her as a “dead woman walking”, she could have succumbed to the logic of the newly hung parliament and announced a change of tack. |
| Instead, she ploughed doggedly on. Her allies argue that she could not have trusted Jeremy Corbyn to consistently deliver the bloc of supportive votes she needed to get a deal through. | Instead, she ploughed doggedly on. Her allies argue that she could not have trusted Jeremy Corbyn to consistently deliver the bloc of supportive votes she needed to get a deal through. |
| But she could have given parliament some role in setting the parameters, in the way she is now promising to do for the next stage of the Brexit negotiations. | But she could have given parliament some role in setting the parameters, in the way she is now promising to do for the next stage of the Brexit negotiations. |
| Instead, she scrupulously balanced Brexiters and remainers in her cabinet, spent months on an ultimately doomed attempt to keep Boris Johnson and David Davis on board and infuriated Brussels by endlessly declining to set out what future relationship Britain actually wanted. | Instead, she scrupulously balanced Brexiters and remainers in her cabinet, spent months on an ultimately doomed attempt to keep Boris Johnson and David Davis on board and infuriated Brussels by endlessly declining to set out what future relationship Britain actually wanted. |
| At one point the cabinet were so divided, they were sent off into breakout groups to work on the two rival approaches to post-Brexit customs checks. | At one point the cabinet were so divided, they were sent off into breakout groups to work on the two rival approaches to post-Brexit customs checks. |
| Like Corbyn, May can be tantalisingly inscrutable. Just as some Labour supporters fervently hoped Corbyn’s repeated professions of determination to honour the referendum result masked a secret desire to stop Brexit, a few moderate Tories continued to believe May was secretly a soft Brexiter, who would eventually succumb to the parliamentary logic and pivot to a customs union. But also like Corbyn, May is deeply tribal, and perhaps ultimately somewhat inflexible. | Like Corbyn, May can be tantalisingly inscrutable. Just as some Labour supporters fervently hoped Corbyn’s repeated professions of determination to honour the referendum result masked a secret desire to stop Brexit, a few moderate Tories continued to believe May was secretly a soft Brexiter, who would eventually succumb to the parliamentary logic and pivot to a customs union. But also like Corbyn, May is deeply tribal, and perhaps ultimately somewhat inflexible. |
| The result has been a masterclass in ducking confrontation, changing the subject and running down the clock. | The result has been a masterclass in ducking confrontation, changing the subject and running down the clock. |
| Colleagues say the prime minister still retains a desire to leave her mark on domestic policy beyond Brexit, by returning to those “burning injustices” she spoke about in Downing Street. | Colleagues say the prime minister still retains a desire to leave her mark on domestic policy beyond Brexit, by returning to those “burning injustices” she spoke about in Downing Street. |
| But even if the “three amigos” are not joined by more colleagues, the mistrust sown by May’s handling of Brexit, and her catastrophic campaign in 2017, means she’s unlikely to be given the chance. | But even if the “three amigos” are not joined by more colleagues, the mistrust sown by May’s handling of Brexit, and her catastrophic campaign in 2017, means she’s unlikely to be given the chance. |
| And the sad irony of her approach is that far from containing the warring factions in her party over Europe, she has overseen what is at best a splintering, but if the next few days and weeks go badly, could ultimately become a much wider split, in her party. | And the sad irony of her approach is that far from containing the warring factions in her party over Europe, she has overseen what is at best a splintering, but if the next few days and weeks go badly, could ultimately become a much wider split, in her party. |
| Theresa May | Theresa May |
| Brexit | Brexit |
| Conservatives | Conservatives |
| Article 50 | Article 50 |
| analysis | analysis |
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