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| Has Theresa May finally exhausted her colleagues' patience? | Has Theresa May finally exhausted her colleagues' patience? |
| (about 20 hours later) | |
| Theresa May has emerged, battered but unbowed, from so many confrontations with one or other wing of her fractious party over the past two years that survival against the odds has become her best known political trait. | Theresa May has emerged, battered but unbowed, from so many confrontations with one or other wing of her fractious party over the past two years that survival against the odds has become her best known political trait. |
| But the dramatic departure of three MPs on Wednesday, to cross the floor and join eight ex-Labour colleagues on the opposition benches, sharpened the extraordinary risks she faces in the days and weeks ahead. | But the dramatic departure of three MPs on Wednesday, to cross the floor and join eight ex-Labour colleagues on the opposition benches, sharpened the extraordinary risks she faces in the days and weeks ahead. |
| Moderate Tory MPs have warned for some time that they are prepared to defy the whips – or even resign from their party – in order to ensure the risk of a no-deal Brexit is removed. | Moderate Tory MPs have warned for some time that they are prepared to defy the whips – or even resign from their party – in order to ensure the risk of a no-deal Brexit is removed. |
| The existence of the fledgling Independent Group makes those threats more credible, by creating a safe and welcoming place for these refuseniks to go, and amplifying their arguments about the risks of no deal and the rightward lurch of their party. | The existence of the fledgling Independent Group makes those threats more credible, by creating a safe and welcoming place for these refuseniks to go, and amplifying their arguments about the risks of no deal and the rightward lurch of their party. |
| May has repeatedly managed to survive potential crunch moments by winning a few more days or weeks’ grace from her exasperated colleagues. | May has repeatedly managed to survive potential crunch moments by winning a few more days or weeks’ grace from her exasperated colleagues. |
| Typically, she has done so by promising a bit more Brexit process: meetings, consultations with “senior parliamentarians”, technical talks. | Typically, she has done so by promising a bit more Brexit process: meetings, consultations with “senior parliamentarians”, technical talks. |
| That is unlikely to wash this Wednesday, with scores of her own troops, including many ministers, saying their patience has been exhausted and they are minded to defy Tory whips and vote to delay Brexit if a deal has not been reached and ratified in time for 29 March. | That is unlikely to wash this Wednesday, with scores of her own troops, including many ministers, saying their patience has been exhausted and they are minded to defy Tory whips and vote to delay Brexit if a deal has not been reached and ratified in time for 29 March. |
| It looks highly likely that unless she promises to request an extension of Article 50 herself – which would enrage the Brexiters – parliament will force her to do so. | It looks highly likely that unless she promises to request an extension of Article 50 herself – which would enrage the Brexiters – parliament will force her to do so. |
| She will then face a final frantic rush to secure changes to the Brexit deal that she can put before parliament, and present her party’s rightwingers with the choice laid out by Olly Robbins in an unguarded late-night chat: back me, or your precious Brexit will be delayed, giving those pesky People’s Vote campaigners even longer to get their act together. | She will then face a final frantic rush to secure changes to the Brexit deal that she can put before parliament, and present her party’s rightwingers with the choice laid out by Olly Robbins in an unguarded late-night chat: back me, or your precious Brexit will be delayed, giving those pesky People’s Vote campaigners even longer to get their act together. |
| On that basis, she may finally – just – drag her deal over the line. But along the way, she has exasperated just about every Tory MP. | On that basis, she may finally – just – drag her deal over the line. But along the way, she has exasperated just about every Tory MP. |
| Those who know May well say that holding together the party she loves has been her guiding principle as she has navigated Brexit. | Those who know May well say that holding together the party she loves has been her guiding principle as she has navigated Brexit. |
| Over and again, she has flatly refused to seek the cross-party consensus the EU27 had hoped to see emerge. | Over and again, she has flatly refused to seek the cross-party consensus the EU27 had hoped to see emerge. |
| Instead, she has focused on containing the contending forces on her own backbenches, believing the public didn’t vote for the “politicians’ Brexit” that would result if she tacked towards a Norway-style deal to bring more Labour votes on board. | Instead, she has focused on containing the contending forces on her own backbenches, believing the public didn’t vote for the “politicians’ Brexit” that would result if she tacked towards a Norway-style deal to bring more Labour votes on board. |
| The former deputy chair of the party and an under-secretary in DExEU, Cleverly has only been in parliament since 2015. The MP for Braintree announced his candidacy to his local paper saying the Conservatives needed to “look new and sound different”. | |
| The environment secretary is to pitch himself as a “unity candidate” capable of attracting leavers and remainers, as he formally declared his candidacy saying: “I believe that I’m ready to unite the Conservative and Unionist party, ready to deliver Brexit and ready to lead this great country.” But robust Brexiters in particular dislike the fact that he stayed loyal even in the final days of the crumbling May regime. | The environment secretary is to pitch himself as a “unity candidate” capable of attracting leavers and remainers, as he formally declared his candidacy saying: “I believe that I’m ready to unite the Conservative and Unionist party, ready to deliver Brexit and ready to lead this great country.” But robust Brexiters in particular dislike the fact that he stayed loyal even in the final days of the crumbling May regime. |
| The health secretary remains a relative outsider, but the longer the race goes on, the more he gains ground for the seemingly basic virtues of being apparently competent and broadly similar to a normal human being, albeit a particularly energetic one. A concerted effort would probably require an image consultant. | The health secretary remains a relative outsider, but the longer the race goes on, the more he gains ground for the seemingly basic virtues of being apparently competent and broadly similar to a normal human being, albeit a particularly energetic one. A concerted effort would probably require an image consultant. |
| Fears that the foreign secretary would be another overly woolly compromise choice were hardly assuaged when after a set-piece speech he seemed unable to outline why his brand of Conservatism might appeal to voters. | Fears that the foreign secretary would be another overly woolly compromise choice were hardly assuaged when after a set-piece speech he seemed unable to outline why his brand of Conservatism might appeal to voters. |
| The home secretary still has the same weaknesses: he is an uninspiring speaker and some worry he is too fond of headline-grabbing, illiberal political gestures. But he is almost as ubiquitous as Liz Truss, and clearly believes this is his time. | The home secretary still has the same weaknesses: he is an uninspiring speaker and some worry he is too fond of headline-grabbing, illiberal political gestures. But he is almost as ubiquitous as Liz Truss, and clearly believes this is his time. |
| The out-and-out favourite, so popular with the Tory grassroots that it would be hard for MPs to not make Johnson one of the final two. He has been relatively quiet recently, beyond his regular Telegraph column, but this is very deliberate. | The out-and-out favourite, so popular with the Tory grassroots that it would be hard for MPs to not make Johnson one of the final two. He has been relatively quiet recently, beyond his regular Telegraph column, but this is very deliberate. |
| The former House of Commons leader, who left Theresa May as the last candidate standing when she pulled out of the previous leadership race in 2016, has decided to have another tilt at the top job, saying she has the “experience and confidence” to “lead this country into a brighter future”. But even with her staunch Brexiter tendencies, she would be seen as an outsider. | The former House of Commons leader, who left Theresa May as the last candidate standing when she pulled out of the previous leadership race in 2016, has decided to have another tilt at the top job, saying she has the “experience and confidence” to “lead this country into a brighter future”. But even with her staunch Brexiter tendencies, she would be seen as an outsider. |
| The housing minister is credited as the convener of both Conservative leavers and remainers to develop a compromise on May’s withdrawal agreement. He said there was a “yearning for change”. The 52-year-old is a former deputy mayor of London and entered the Commons in 2015 when David Cameron’s Conservatives won a majority. His name was given to the “Malthouse compromise” – a proposal drawn up by backbenchers from leave and remain wings of the Tory party, which would have implemented May’s Brexit deal with the backstop replaced by alternative arrangements. | The housing minister is credited as the convener of both Conservative leavers and remainers to develop a compromise on May’s withdrawal agreement. He said there was a “yearning for change”. The 52-year-old is a former deputy mayor of London and entered the Commons in 2015 when David Cameron’s Conservatives won a majority. His name was given to the “Malthouse compromise” – a proposal drawn up by backbenchers from leave and remain wings of the Tory party, which would have implemented May’s Brexit deal with the backstop replaced by alternative arrangements. |
| The former work and pensions secretary, who quit last year over May’s Brexit plans, has launched her own in-party campaign group/leadership vehicle called Blue Collar Conservatism, promising to make the party more amenable to voters in deprived communities – mainly through a promise to deliver a strong Brexit and policies such as diverting much of the foreign aid budget to schools and police. | The former work and pensions secretary, who quit last year over May’s Brexit plans, has launched her own in-party campaign group/leadership vehicle called Blue Collar Conservatism, promising to make the party more amenable to voters in deprived communities – mainly through a promise to deliver a strong Brexit and policies such as diverting much of the foreign aid budget to schools and police. |
| Few things say “would-be leader in waiting” like a kitchen photoshoot with your spouse, and the former Brexit secretary duly obliged with this imageawash with tasteful pastel hues. He formally launched his bid in the Mail on Sunday. Among the more core constituency of Conservative MPs, Raab has been pushing hard, as has his semi-official “Ready for Raab” Twitter feed. | Few things say “would-be leader in waiting” like a kitchen photoshoot with your spouse, and the former Brexit secretary duly obliged with this imageawash with tasteful pastel hues. He formally launched his bid in the Mail on Sunday. Among the more core constituency of Conservative MPs, Raab has been pushing hard, as has his semi-official “Ready for Raab” Twitter feed. |
| The cabinet’s most recent arrival – Mordaunt’s promotion to defence led to Stewart becoming international development secretary – certainly has the necessary ambition and self-belief, plus a privileged if unorthodox backstory covering Eton, Oxford, a senior role in postwar Iraq and a bestselling book about walking across Afghanistan. He remains an outsider, not least because of his remain tendencies and slightly 2010 view of compassionate Conservatism. | The cabinet’s most recent arrival – Mordaunt’s promotion to defence led to Stewart becoming international development secretary – certainly has the necessary ambition and self-belief, plus a privileged if unorthodox backstory covering Eton, Oxford, a senior role in postwar Iraq and a bestselling book about walking across Afghanistan. He remains an outsider, not least because of his remain tendencies and slightly 2010 view of compassionate Conservatism. |
| Sir Graham Brady, Penny Mordaunt and James Brokenshire are yet to declare their intentions. Liz Truss and Amber Rudd have ruled themselves out. | Sir Graham Brady, Penny Mordaunt and James Brokenshire are yet to declare their intentions. Liz Truss and Amber Rudd have ruled themselves out. |
| Among other senior figures not expected to run are Brandon Lewis, Chris Grayling and Philip Hammond. Gavin Williamson’s recent sacking after the Huawei leak inquiry will also surely rule him out as an option this time around. | Among other senior figures not expected to run are Brandon Lewis, Chris Grayling and Philip Hammond. Gavin Williamson’s recent sacking after the Huawei leak inquiry will also surely rule him out as an option this time around. |
| After the general election of 2017, when her majority was wiped out and George Osborne described her as a “dead woman walking”, she could have succumbed to the logic of the newly hung parliament and announced a change of tack. | After the general election of 2017, when her majority was wiped out and George Osborne described her as a “dead woman walking”, she could have succumbed to the logic of the newly hung parliament and announced a change of tack. |
| Instead, she ploughed doggedly on. Her allies argue that she could not have trusted Jeremy Corbyn to consistently deliver the bloc of supportive votes she needed to get a deal through. | Instead, she ploughed doggedly on. Her allies argue that she could not have trusted Jeremy Corbyn to consistently deliver the bloc of supportive votes she needed to get a deal through. |
| But she could have given parliament some role in setting the parameters, in the way she is now promising to do for the next stage of the Brexit negotiations. | But she could have given parliament some role in setting the parameters, in the way she is now promising to do for the next stage of the Brexit negotiations. |
| Instead, she scrupulously balanced Brexiters and remainers in her cabinet, spent months on an ultimately doomed attempt to keep Boris Johnson and David Davis on board and infuriated Brussels by endlessly declining to set out what future relationship Britain actually wanted. | Instead, she scrupulously balanced Brexiters and remainers in her cabinet, spent months on an ultimately doomed attempt to keep Boris Johnson and David Davis on board and infuriated Brussels by endlessly declining to set out what future relationship Britain actually wanted. |
| At one point the cabinet were so divided, they were sent off into breakout groups to work on the two rival approaches to post-Brexit customs checks. | At one point the cabinet were so divided, they were sent off into breakout groups to work on the two rival approaches to post-Brexit customs checks. |
| Like Corbyn, May can be tantalisingly inscrutable. Just as some Labour supporters fervently hoped Corbyn’s repeated professions of determination to honour the referendum result masked a secret desire to stop Brexit, a few moderate Tories continued to believe May was secretly a soft Brexiter, who would eventually succumb to the parliamentary logic and pivot to a customs union. But also like Corbyn, May is deeply tribal, and perhaps ultimately somewhat inflexible. | Like Corbyn, May can be tantalisingly inscrutable. Just as some Labour supporters fervently hoped Corbyn’s repeated professions of determination to honour the referendum result masked a secret desire to stop Brexit, a few moderate Tories continued to believe May was secretly a soft Brexiter, who would eventually succumb to the parliamentary logic and pivot to a customs union. But also like Corbyn, May is deeply tribal, and perhaps ultimately somewhat inflexible. |
| The result has been a masterclass in ducking confrontation, changing the subject and running down the clock. | The result has been a masterclass in ducking confrontation, changing the subject and running down the clock. |
| Colleagues say the prime minister still retains a desire to leave her mark on domestic policy beyond Brexit, by returning to those “burning injustices” she spoke about in Downing Street. | Colleagues say the prime minister still retains a desire to leave her mark on domestic policy beyond Brexit, by returning to those “burning injustices” she spoke about in Downing Street. |
| But even if the “three amigos” are not joined by more colleagues, the mistrust sown by May’s handling of Brexit, and her catastrophic campaign in 2017, means she’s unlikely to be given the chance. | But even if the “three amigos” are not joined by more colleagues, the mistrust sown by May’s handling of Brexit, and her catastrophic campaign in 2017, means she’s unlikely to be given the chance. |
| And the sad irony of her approach is that far from containing the warring factions in her party over Europe, she has overseen what is at best a splintering, but if the next few days and weeks go badly, could ultimately become a much wider split, in her party. | And the sad irony of her approach is that far from containing the warring factions in her party over Europe, she has overseen what is at best a splintering, but if the next few days and weeks go badly, could ultimately become a much wider split, in her party. |
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