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| Has Theresa May finally exhausted her colleagues' patience? | Has Theresa May finally exhausted her colleagues' patience? |
| (1 day later) | |
| Theresa May has emerged, battered but unbowed, from so many confrontations with one or other wing of her fractious party over the past two years that survival against the odds has become her best known political trait. | Theresa May has emerged, battered but unbowed, from so many confrontations with one or other wing of her fractious party over the past two years that survival against the odds has become her best known political trait. |
| But the dramatic departure of three MPs on Wednesday, to cross the floor and join eight ex-Labour colleagues on the opposition benches, sharpened the extraordinary risks she faces in the days and weeks ahead. | But the dramatic departure of three MPs on Wednesday, to cross the floor and join eight ex-Labour colleagues on the opposition benches, sharpened the extraordinary risks she faces in the days and weeks ahead. |
| Moderate Tory MPs have warned for some time that they are prepared to defy the whips – or even resign from their party – in order to ensure the risk of a no-deal Brexit is removed. | Moderate Tory MPs have warned for some time that they are prepared to defy the whips – or even resign from their party – in order to ensure the risk of a no-deal Brexit is removed. |
| The existence of the fledgling Independent Group makes those threats more credible, by creating a safe and welcoming place for these refuseniks to go, and amplifying their arguments about the risks of no deal and the rightward lurch of their party. | The existence of the fledgling Independent Group makes those threats more credible, by creating a safe and welcoming place for these refuseniks to go, and amplifying their arguments about the risks of no deal and the rightward lurch of their party. |
| May has repeatedly managed to survive potential crunch moments by winning a few more days or weeks’ grace from her exasperated colleagues. | May has repeatedly managed to survive potential crunch moments by winning a few more days or weeks’ grace from her exasperated colleagues. |
| Typically, she has done so by promising a bit more Brexit process: meetings, consultations with “senior parliamentarians”, technical talks. | Typically, she has done so by promising a bit more Brexit process: meetings, consultations with “senior parliamentarians”, technical talks. |
| That is unlikely to wash this Wednesday, with scores of her own troops, including many ministers, saying their patience has been exhausted and they are minded to defy Tory whips and vote to delay Brexit if a deal has not been reached and ratified in time for 29 March. | That is unlikely to wash this Wednesday, with scores of her own troops, including many ministers, saying their patience has been exhausted and they are minded to defy Tory whips and vote to delay Brexit if a deal has not been reached and ratified in time for 29 March. |
| It looks highly likely that unless she promises to request an extension of Article 50 herself – which would enrage the Brexiters – parliament will force her to do so. | It looks highly likely that unless she promises to request an extension of Article 50 herself – which would enrage the Brexiters – parliament will force her to do so. |
| She will then face a final frantic rush to secure changes to the Brexit deal that she can put before parliament, and present her party’s rightwingers with the choice laid out by Olly Robbins in an unguarded late-night chat: back me, or your precious Brexit will be delayed, giving those pesky People’s Vote campaigners even longer to get their act together. | She will then face a final frantic rush to secure changes to the Brexit deal that she can put before parliament, and present her party’s rightwingers with the choice laid out by Olly Robbins in an unguarded late-night chat: back me, or your precious Brexit will be delayed, giving those pesky People’s Vote campaigners even longer to get their act together. |
| On that basis, she may finally – just – drag her deal over the line. But along the way, she has exasperated just about every Tory MP. | On that basis, she may finally – just – drag her deal over the line. But along the way, she has exasperated just about every Tory MP. |
| Those who know May well say that holding together the party she loves has been her guiding principle as she has navigated Brexit. | Those who know May well say that holding together the party she loves has been her guiding principle as she has navigated Brexit. |
| Over and again, she has flatly refused to seek the cross-party consensus the EU27 had hoped to see emerge. | Over and again, she has flatly refused to seek the cross-party consensus the EU27 had hoped to see emerge. |
| Instead, she has focused on containing the contending forces on her own backbenches, believing the public didn’t vote for the “politicians’ Brexit” that would result if she tacked towards a Norway-style deal to bring more Labour votes on board. | Instead, she has focused on containing the contending forces on her own backbenches, believing the public didn’t vote for the “politicians’ Brexit” that would result if she tacked towards a Norway-style deal to bring more Labour votes on board. |
| The fortunes of the environment secretary remain hard to predict and opinion is split in the party. His detractors believe he is deeply unpopular with the country and has ruined his reputation for good when he stood against Johnson at the last leadership race. Most MPs were delighted by his performance in the no-confidence vote where he tore into Corbyn. But robust Brexiters dislike the fact he has stayed loyal even in the final days of the crumbling May regime. | The fortunes of the environment secretary remain hard to predict and opinion is split in the party. His detractors believe he is deeply unpopular with the country and has ruined his reputation for good when he stood against Johnson at the last leadership race. Most MPs were delighted by his performance in the no-confidence vote where he tore into Corbyn. But robust Brexiters dislike the fact he has stayed loyal even in the final days of the crumbling May regime. |
| While the response of many voters to mention of the health secretary is still likely to be ‘Who?’, to some he is starting to have the makings of a from-the-sidelines contender. The former culture secretary is only 40 but has six years of frontbench experience, and is on to his second cabinet post. The longer the race goes on the more he gains ground for the seemingly basic virtues of being apparently competent and broadly similar to a normal human being. | While the response of many voters to mention of the health secretary is still likely to be ‘Who?’, to some he is starting to have the makings of a from-the-sidelines contender. The former culture secretary is only 40 but has six years of frontbench experience, and is on to his second cabinet post. The longer the race goes on the more he gains ground for the seemingly basic virtues of being apparently competent and broadly similar to a normal human being. |
| The nickname ‘Theresa in trousers’ has stuck. Most colleagues speak about his candidacy unenthusiastically and warn about his reputation with the country after having weathered the junior doctors’ strike. He could still succeed by bridging the Brexit-remain divide and attracting colleagues looking for a moderate grown-up, but recently he seemed unable to outline why his brand of Conservatism might appeal to voters. | The nickname ‘Theresa in trousers’ has stuck. Most colleagues speak about his candidacy unenthusiastically and warn about his reputation with the country after having weathered the junior doctors’ strike. He could still succeed by bridging the Brexit-remain divide and attracting colleagues looking for a moderate grown-up, but recently he seemed unable to outline why his brand of Conservatism might appeal to voters. |
| The home secretary is reported to have told Tory MPs he is the only one who can beat Jeremy Corbyn in a general election, but has made less of an impact than first predicted. Several MPs believe that the case of Isis bride Shamima Begum was mishandled and find Javid’s speeches and vision less than inspiring. | The home secretary is reported to have told Tory MPs he is the only one who can beat Jeremy Corbyn in a general election, but has made less of an impact than first predicted. Several MPs believe that the case of Isis bride Shamima Begum was mishandled and find Javid’s speeches and vision less than inspiring. |
| Still favourite for the top job, Johnson has kept himself out of the messiest Tory warfare in 2019 and has enthusiastic support from younger Brexiter MPs – and the patronage of Jacob Rees-Mogg. His supporters insist no other name on the list can connect with voters in the same way and win a general election. However, his reputation is still severely damaged from his time as foreign secretary and there is a concerted ‘anyone but Boris’ campaign among party colleagues. | Still favourite for the top job, Johnson has kept himself out of the messiest Tory warfare in 2019 and has enthusiastic support from younger Brexiter MPs – and the patronage of Jacob Rees-Mogg. His supporters insist no other name on the list can connect with voters in the same way and win a general election. However, his reputation is still severely damaged from his time as foreign secretary and there is a concerted ‘anyone but Boris’ campaign among party colleagues. |
| Leadsom has revived her reputation somewhat during her tenure as Commons leader, especially her rounds in the ring with the Speaker, John Bercow. However, few believe she would ever be first choice again among Eurosceptics and a number of her former campaign team have said they will discourage her from running. It is yet to be seen how her resignation on the eve of the European Elections will play with MPs. | |
| Former cabinet minister McVey has already announced her intention to run. She has the Brexit credentials, having quit as Work and Pensions Secretary in protest at Theresa May's withdrawal agreement, and claims to already have enough support from fellow MPs to make her bid viable. | Former cabinet minister McVey has already announced her intention to run. She has the Brexit credentials, having quit as Work and Pensions Secretary in protest at Theresa May's withdrawal agreement, and claims to already have enough support from fellow MPs to make her bid viable. |
| Previously seen as a definite outsider, her promotion from international development secretary to defence after the sacking of Gavin Williamson has significantly bolstered her position. As both a confirmed Brexiter and a social liberal she could unite different camps, but she remains relatively untested. | Previously seen as a definite outsider, her promotion from international development secretary to defence after the sacking of Gavin Williamson has significantly bolstered her position. As both a confirmed Brexiter and a social liberal she could unite different camps, but she remains relatively untested. |
| The former Brexit secretary has a loyal fanbase and a professional team, including support from Vote Leave’s ex-comms director Paul Stephenson. MPs are forming the view that the next party leader should be a younger face from a new generation of politicians – which gives Raab the edge over Boris Johnson. | The former Brexit secretary has a loyal fanbase and a professional team, including support from Vote Leave’s ex-comms director Paul Stephenson. MPs are forming the view that the next party leader should be a younger face from a new generation of politicians – which gives Raab the edge over Boris Johnson. |
| While she has not officially ruled herself out, Rudd’s remainer tendencies and slender majority in her Hastings constituency mean the work and pensions secretary is largely being courted for who she might eventually endorse. | While she has not officially ruled herself out, Rudd’s remainer tendencies and slender majority in her Hastings constituency mean the work and pensions secretary is largely being courted for who she might eventually endorse. |
| As much for effort as inspiration. The chief secretary to the Treasury has been almost everywhere the last few weeks – including modelling some slightly alarming trousers in the Mail on Sunday – to explain her free market, libertarian philosophy. Everyone knows what she thinks, but this will still perhaps not be enough. | As much for effort as inspiration. The chief secretary to the Treasury has been almost everywhere the last few weeks – including modelling some slightly alarming trousers in the Mail on Sunday – to explain her free market, libertarian philosophy. Everyone knows what she thinks, but this will still perhaps not be enough. |
| Among the senior figures not expected to run are Brandon Lewis, the party chairman, Chris Grayling, the transport secretary, and Philip Hammond, the chancellor, who acknowledges that he is not popular enough. Gavin Williamson’s recent sacking after the Huawei leak inquiry will also surely rule him out as an option this time around. | Among the senior figures not expected to run are Brandon Lewis, the party chairman, Chris Grayling, the transport secretary, and Philip Hammond, the chancellor, who acknowledges that he is not popular enough. Gavin Williamson’s recent sacking after the Huawei leak inquiry will also surely rule him out as an option this time around. |
| After the general election of 2017, when her majority was wiped out and George Osborne described her as a “dead woman walking”, she could have succumbed to the logic of the newly hung parliament and announced a change of tack. | After the general election of 2017, when her majority was wiped out and George Osborne described her as a “dead woman walking”, she could have succumbed to the logic of the newly hung parliament and announced a change of tack. |
| Instead, she ploughed doggedly on. Her allies argue that she could not have trusted Jeremy Corbyn to consistently deliver the bloc of supportive votes she needed to get a deal through. | Instead, she ploughed doggedly on. Her allies argue that she could not have trusted Jeremy Corbyn to consistently deliver the bloc of supportive votes she needed to get a deal through. |
| But she could have given parliament some role in setting the parameters, in the way she is now promising to do for the next stage of the Brexit negotiations. | But she could have given parliament some role in setting the parameters, in the way she is now promising to do for the next stage of the Brexit negotiations. |
| Instead, she scrupulously balanced Brexiters and remainers in her cabinet, spent months on an ultimately doomed attempt to keep Boris Johnson and David Davis on board and infuriated Brussels by endlessly declining to set out what future relationship Britain actually wanted. | Instead, she scrupulously balanced Brexiters and remainers in her cabinet, spent months on an ultimately doomed attempt to keep Boris Johnson and David Davis on board and infuriated Brussels by endlessly declining to set out what future relationship Britain actually wanted. |
| At one point the cabinet were so divided, they were sent off into breakout groups to work on the two rival approaches to post-Brexit customs checks. | At one point the cabinet were so divided, they were sent off into breakout groups to work on the two rival approaches to post-Brexit customs checks. |
| Like Corbyn, May can be tantalisingly inscrutable. Just as some Labour supporters fervently hoped Corbyn’s repeated professions of determination to honour the referendum result masked a secret desire to stop Brexit, a few moderate Tories continued to believe May was secretly a soft Brexiter, who would eventually succumb to the parliamentary logic and pivot to a customs union. But also like Corbyn, May is deeply tribal, and perhaps ultimately somewhat inflexible. | Like Corbyn, May can be tantalisingly inscrutable. Just as some Labour supporters fervently hoped Corbyn’s repeated professions of determination to honour the referendum result masked a secret desire to stop Brexit, a few moderate Tories continued to believe May was secretly a soft Brexiter, who would eventually succumb to the parliamentary logic and pivot to a customs union. But also like Corbyn, May is deeply tribal, and perhaps ultimately somewhat inflexible. |
| The result has been a masterclass in ducking confrontation, changing the subject and running down the clock. | The result has been a masterclass in ducking confrontation, changing the subject and running down the clock. |
| Colleagues say the prime minister still retains a desire to leave her mark on domestic policy beyond Brexit, by returning to those “burning injustices” she spoke about in Downing Street. | Colleagues say the prime minister still retains a desire to leave her mark on domestic policy beyond Brexit, by returning to those “burning injustices” she spoke about in Downing Street. |
| But even if the “three amigos” are not joined by more colleagues, the mistrust sown by May’s handling of Brexit, and her catastrophic campaign in 2017, means she’s unlikely to be given the chance. | But even if the “three amigos” are not joined by more colleagues, the mistrust sown by May’s handling of Brexit, and her catastrophic campaign in 2017, means she’s unlikely to be given the chance. |
| And the sad irony of her approach is that far from containing the warring factions in her party over Europe, she has overseen what is at best a splintering, but if the next few days and weeks go badly, could ultimately become a much wider split, in her party. | And the sad irony of her approach is that far from containing the warring factions in her party over Europe, she has overseen what is at best a splintering, but if the next few days and weeks go badly, could ultimately become a much wider split, in her party. |
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