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| US global dominance 'set to wane' | US global dominance 'set to wane' |
| (40 minutes later) | |
| US economic, military and political dominance is likely to decline over the next two decades, according to American intelligence agencies. | US economic, military and political dominance is likely to decline over the next two decades, according to American intelligence agencies. |
| US clout will weaken as China and India grow more powerful, the National Intelligence Council (NIC) predicts in its latest report on global trends. | US clout will weaken as China and India grow more powerful, the National Intelligence Council (NIC) predicts in its latest report on global trends. |
| The US dollar will no longer be the world's major currency and food and water scarcities will fuel conflict. | The US dollar will no longer be the world's major currency and food and water scarcities will fuel conflict. |
| The NIC report comes as President-elect Barack Obama prepares to take office. | The NIC report comes as President-elect Barack Obama prepares to take office. |
| It will make sombre reading for Mr Obama, says the BBC's Jonathan Beale in Washington, as it paints a bleak picture of the future of US influence and power. | |
| "The next 20 years of transition to a new system are fraught with risks," says Global Trends 2025, the latest of the reports that the NIC prepares every four years in time for the next presidential term. | "The next 20 years of transition to a new system are fraught with risks," says Global Trends 2025, the latest of the reports that the NIC prepares every four years in time for the next presidential term. |
| Nuclear weapons use | Nuclear weapons use |
| The NIC's 2004 study painted a rosier picture of America's global position, with US dominance expected to continue. | The NIC's 2004 study painted a rosier picture of America's global position, with US dominance expected to continue. |
| But the latest report says that rising economies such as China, India and Brazil will offer the US more competition at the top of a multipolar international system.There will be greater potential for conflict in the future, the NIC says | But the latest report says that rising economies such as China, India and Brazil will offer the US more competition at the top of a multipolar international system.There will be greater potential for conflict in the future, the NIC says |
| A world with more power centres will be less stable than one with one or two superpowers, it says, offering more potential for conflict. | A world with more power centres will be less stable than one with one or two superpowers, it says, offering more potential for conflict. |
| Global warming will have had a greater impact by 2025, triggering food and water scarcities that could fuel conflict around the globe. | Global warming will have had a greater impact by 2025, triggering food and water scarcities that could fuel conflict around the globe. |
| And the use of nuclear weapons will grow increasingly likely, says the report, as rogue states and terrorist groups gain greater access to such weapons. | And the use of nuclear weapons will grow increasingly likely, says the report, as rogue states and terrorist groups gain greater access to such weapons. |
| But the NIC does give some scope for leaders to take action to prevent such scenarios. | But the NIC does give some scope for leaders to take action to prevent such scenarios. |
| "It is not beyond the mind of human beings, or political systems, [or] in some cases [the] working of market mechanisms to address and alleviate if not solve these problems," said Thomas Fingar, chairman of the NIC. | "It is not beyond the mind of human beings, or political systems, [or] in some cases [the] working of market mechanisms to address and alleviate if not solve these problems," said Thomas Fingar, chairman of the NIC. |
| And, adds our correspondent, it is worth noting that American intelligence has been wrong before. | And, adds our correspondent, it is worth noting that American intelligence has been wrong before. |