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| Version 2 | Version 3 |
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| US global dominance 'set to wane' | US global dominance 'set to wane' |
| (about 1 hour later) | |
| US economic, military and political dominance is likely to decline over the next two decades, according to a new US intelligence report on global trends. | US economic, military and political dominance is likely to decline over the next two decades, according to a new US intelligence report on global trends. |
| The National Intelligence Council (NIC) predicts China, India and Russia will increasingly challenge US influence. | The National Intelligence Council (NIC) predicts China, India and Russia will increasingly challenge US influence. |
| It also says the dollar will no longer be the world's major currency, and food and water shortages will fuel conflict. | It also says the dollar will no longer be the world's major currency, and food and water shortages will fuel conflict. |
| However, the report concedes that these outcomes are not inevitable and will depend on the actions of world leaders. | However, the report concedes that these outcomes are not inevitable and will depend on the actions of world leaders. |
| The US will remain the single most important actor but will be less dominant Global Trends 2025 class="" href="/1/hi/world/americas/7741241.stm">US Global Trends report: Key points | |
| It will make sombre reading for President-elect Barack Obama, the BBC's Jonathan Beale in Washington says, as it paints a bleak picture of the future of US influence and power. | It will make sombre reading for President-elect Barack Obama, the BBC's Jonathan Beale in Washington says, as it paints a bleak picture of the future of US influence and power. |
| "The next 20 years of transition to a new system are fraught with risks," says Global Trends 2025, the latest of the reports that the NIC prepares every four years in time for the next presidential term. | "The next 20 years of transition to a new system are fraught with risks," says Global Trends 2025, the latest of the reports that the NIC prepares every four years in time for the next presidential term. |
| Nevertheless, it concludes: "The US will remain the single most important actor but will be less dominant." | Nevertheless, it concludes: "The US will remain the single most important actor but will be less dominant." |
| Nuclear weapons use | Nuclear weapons use |
| The NIC's 2004 study painted a rosier picture of America's global position, with US dominance expected to continue. | The NIC's 2004 study painted a rosier picture of America's global position, with US dominance expected to continue. |
| NIC REPORT class="" href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/21_11_08_2025_Global_Trends_Final_Report.pdf">Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World (33MB) Most computers will open this document automatically, but you may need Adobe Reader href="http://www.adobe.com/products/acrobat/readstep2.html">Download the reader here | |
| But the latest report says that rising economies such as China, India and Brazil will offer the US more competition at the top of a multipolar international system. | |
| A world with more power centres will be less stable than one with one or two superpowers, it says, offering more potential for conflict. | A world with more power centres will be less stable than one with one or two superpowers, it says, offering more potential for conflict. |
| Global warming will have had a greater impact by 2025, triggering food and water scarcities that could fuel conflict around the globe. | Global warming will have had a greater impact by 2025, triggering food and water scarcities that could fuel conflict around the globe. |
| There will be greater potential for conflict in the future, the NIC says | |
| And the use of nuclear weapons will grow increasingly likely, says the report, as rogue states and terrorist groups gain greater access to such weapons. | And the use of nuclear weapons will grow increasingly likely, says the report, as rogue states and terrorist groups gain greater access to such weapons. |
| But the NIC does give some scope for leaders to take action to prevent such scenarios. | But the NIC does give some scope for leaders to take action to prevent such scenarios. |
| "It is not beyond the mind of human beings, or political systems, [or] in some cases [the] working of market mechanisms to address and alleviate if not solve these problems," said Thomas Fingar, chairman of the NIC. | "It is not beyond the mind of human beings, or political systems, [or] in some cases [the] working of market mechanisms to address and alleviate if not solve these problems," said Thomas Fingar, chairman of the NIC. |
| And, adds our correspondent, it is worth noting that American intelligence has been wrong before. | And, adds our correspondent, it is worth noting that American intelligence has been wrong before. |