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| US global dominance 'set to wane' | US global dominance 'set to wane' |
| (about 10 hours later) | |
| US economic, military and political dominance is likely to decline over the next two decades, according to a new US intelligence report on global trends. | US economic, military and political dominance is likely to decline over the next two decades, according to a new US intelligence report on global trends. |
| The National Intelligence Council (NIC) predicts China, India and Russia will increasingly challenge US influence. | The National Intelligence Council (NIC) predicts China, India and Russia will increasingly challenge US influence. |
| It also says the dollar may no longer be the world's major currency, and food and water shortages will fuel conflict. | It also says the dollar may no longer be the world's major currency, and food and water shortages will fuel conflict. |
| However, the report concedes that these outcomes are not inevitable and will depend on the actions of world leaders. | However, the report concedes that these outcomes are not inevitable and will depend on the actions of world leaders. |
| It will make sombre reading for President-elect Barack Obama, the BBC's Jonathan Beale in Washington says, as it paints a bleak picture of the future of US influence and power. | It will make sombre reading for President-elect Barack Obama, the BBC's Jonathan Beale in Washington says, as it paints a bleak picture of the future of US influence and power. |
| The US will remain the single most important actor but will be less dominant Global Trends 2025 Analysis: US intelligence reportUS Global Trends report: Key points class="" href="http://newsforums.bbc.co.uk/nol/thread.jspa?forumID=5698&edition=1">Send us your comments | |
| "The next 20 years of transition to a new system are fraught with risks," says Global Trends 2025, the latest of the reports that the NIC prepares every four years in time for the next presidential term. | "The next 20 years of transition to a new system are fraught with risks," says Global Trends 2025, the latest of the reports that the NIC prepares every four years in time for the next presidential term. |
| Washington will retain its considerable military advantages, but scientific and technological advances; the use of "irregular warfare tactics"; the proliferation of long-range precision weapons; and the growing use of cyber warfare "increasingly will constrict US freedom of action", it adds. | Washington will retain its considerable military advantages, but scientific and technological advances; the use of "irregular warfare tactics"; the proliferation of long-range precision weapons; and the growing use of cyber warfare "increasingly will constrict US freedom of action", it adds. |
| Nevertheless, the report concludes: "The US will remain the single most important actor but will be less dominant." | Nevertheless, the report concludes: "The US will remain the single most important actor but will be less dominant." |
| Nuclear weapons use | Nuclear weapons use |
| The NIC's 2004 study painted a rosier picture of America's global position, with US dominance expected to continue. | The NIC's 2004 study painted a rosier picture of America's global position, with US dominance expected to continue. |
| But the latest Global Trends report says that rising economies such as China, India, Russia and Brazil will offer the US more competition at the top of a multi-polar international system. | But the latest Global Trends report says that rising economies such as China, India, Russia and Brazil will offer the US more competition at the top of a multi-polar international system. |
| NIC REPORT Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World (33MB) Most computers will open this document automatically, but you may need Adobe Reader Download the reader here | NIC REPORT Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World (33MB) Most computers will open this document automatically, but you may need Adobe Reader Download the reader here |
| The EU is meanwhile predicted to become a "hobbled giant", unable to turn its economic power into diplomatic or military muscle. | The EU is meanwhile predicted to become a "hobbled giant", unable to turn its economic power into diplomatic or military muscle. |
| A world with more power centres will be less stable than one with one or two superpowers, it says, offering more potential for conflict. | A world with more power centres will be less stable than one with one or two superpowers, it says, offering more potential for conflict. |
| Global warming, along with rising populations and economic growth will put additional strains on natural resources, it warns, fuelling conflict around the globe as countries compete for them. | Global warming, along with rising populations and economic growth will put additional strains on natural resources, it warns, fuelling conflict around the globe as countries compete for them. |
| "Strategic rivalries are most likely to revolve around trade, investments and technological innovation and acquisition, but we cannot rule out a 19th Century-like scenario of arms races, territorial expansion and military rivalries," the report says. | "Strategic rivalries are most likely to revolve around trade, investments and technological innovation and acquisition, but we cannot rule out a 19th Century-like scenario of arms races, territorial expansion and military rivalries," the report says. |
| "Types of conflict we have not seen for a while - such as over resources - could re-emerge." | "Types of conflict we have not seen for a while - such as over resources - could re-emerge." |
| There will be greater potential for conflict in the future, the NIC says | There will be greater potential for conflict in the future, the NIC says |
| Such conflicts and resource shortages could lead to the collapse of governments in Africa and South Asia, and the rise of organised crime in Eastern and Central Europe, it adds. | Such conflicts and resource shortages could lead to the collapse of governments in Africa and South Asia, and the rise of organised crime in Eastern and Central Europe, it adds. |
| And the use of nuclear weapons will grow increasingly likely, the report says, as "rogue states" and militant groups gain greater access to them. | And the use of nuclear weapons will grow increasingly likely, the report says, as "rogue states" and militant groups gain greater access to them. |
| But al-Qaeda could decay "sooner than people think", it adds, citing the group's growing unpopularity in the Muslim world. | But al-Qaeda could decay "sooner than people think", it adds, citing the group's growing unpopularity in the Muslim world. |
| "The prospect that al-Qaeda will be among the small number of groups able to transcend the generational timeline is not high, given its harsh ideology, unachievable strategic objectives and inability to become a mass movement," it says. | "The prospect that al-Qaeda will be among the small number of groups able to transcend the generational timeline is not high, given its harsh ideology, unachievable strategic objectives and inability to become a mass movement," it says. |
| The NIC does, however, give some scope for leaders to take action to prevent the emergence of new conflicts. | The NIC does, however, give some scope for leaders to take action to prevent the emergence of new conflicts. |
| "It is not beyond the mind of human beings, or political systems, [or] in some cases [the] working of market mechanisms to address and alleviate if not solve these problems," said Thomas Fingar, chairman of the NIC. | "It is not beyond the mind of human beings, or political systems, [or] in some cases [the] working of market mechanisms to address and alleviate if not solve these problems," said Thomas Fingar, chairman of the NIC. |
| And, our correspondent adds, it is worth noting that US intelligence has been wrong before. | And, our correspondent adds, it is worth noting that US intelligence has been wrong before. |