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Federal election 2019: Chris Bowen says Labor policy now a 'blank canvas' as he confirms run for leadership – politics live | Federal election 2019: Chris Bowen says Labor policy now a 'blank canvas' as he confirms run for leadership – politics live |
(32 minutes later) | |
The AEC has sent out its latest update: | |
The Senate | |
The first preferences on more than 10 million Senate ballot papers have already been captured and reflected in the tally room with the AEC currently in the process of counting the remaining pre-poll first preferences on ballot papers for the Senate. | |
Today the AEC’s Central Senate Scrutiny process has started with the task of capturing ALL of the more than 100 million preferences marked on every Senate ballot paper. | |
After the first preference has been counted, Senate ballot papers are being collated in eight separate central count centres across Australia and every Senate ballot paper will be scanned with preference data captured and then manually re-entered and cross-compared to the scanned data as part of an established process of verification. | |
The entire process is open to scrutineers and anticipated to take a number of weeks. | |
House of Representatives | |
The prioritisation of counting in close seats yesterday allowed a clearer picture of the potential final margin in the House of Representatives. Further counting in the close seats of Bass (TAS), Chisolm (VIC), Macquarie (NSW) and others is scheduled and will be reflected in the tally room today. | |
Postal vote counts are occurring in all 151 electoral divisions today in addition to those prioritised activities underway in close seats. The AEC has until Friday 28 June 2019 to return the writs for all House of Representatives and Senate contests. | |
Philip Lowe just brought into the tax rebate delay when asked “the Morrison government has announced it will delay the introduction of the first round of tax cuts for low- and middle-income earners. There was some suggestion it would be this financial year and now next year. Does the change the RBA’s outlook?” | |
Lowe: | |
The graph I showed on the forecast for household income growth incorporated the passing of the budget measures for the tax off sets. | |
You need to remember that the current offset in legislation, I think is $530 and the budget included another $580 for some people. | |
We had included that in our forecast that I showed you there on the basis that there was bipartisan support for that policy. | |
The prime minister’s comments this morning suggest that there wouldn’t be time for the parliament to reconfigure and pass that. | |
If that does not occur and there is no way to get the money to households, the household income growth will be 0.3% lower than I showed you in the graph and that is moving in the wrong direction. It would be good if there was a way for the households to get the tax offsets but the timing may mean it is very difficult and it may have to wait until next year. | |
Back to the RBA Philip Lowe lunch: | |
Question: What policies do you feel could be enacted by the government that would help you hit your unemployment and inflation targets? | |
Lowe: Well, I don’t want to give the government kind of advice, particularly, in the early days. But saying monetary policy can play a role. | |
I mean, an easing of monetary policy would probably lead to a depreciation of the currency or at least the expectation of an easing will lead to a depreciation, and it will also free up the cash flow of some households, those households with debt, and it is reasonable to assume some of that money would be spent. | |
An easing of monetary policy would help lower unemployment and get us closer to the inflation target. | |
But that is not the only policy option as a country to lower unemployment. | |
I have been a strong advocate of increased spending on infrastructure, because it adds to demand management but also makes all our lives better. | |
I would be advising all government, not just the federal government but state governments, to make sure they are investing in infrastructure that creates jobs and increases supply capacity. | |
There is a long list of structural policies that I talked about with Michael before. | |
We are not out of options and monetary policy is not our only option and it would be a mistake to rely totally on monetary policy here. | |
Chisholm looks all but being called for the Liberals. | |
Macquarie is not looking great. Bass will also go the Liberals’ way. That will give Scott Morrison a majority of 78 seats. | |
Which, at this stage, means Labor’s only real gain (Corangamite being notionally Labor after a re-distribution) is Gilmore. | |
Queensland was not the only problem, clearly. | |
And looking at the numbers, again, there has only been a slight shift in swing to the Coalition, nationally. It hasn’t been a huge movement. Even in Queensland, statewide, the LNP’s primary vote barely moved. But Labor lost out on primaries to the minor parties, who returned that vote, through preferences to the Coalition, and that played out across the country. | |
Labor made gains in its own safe seats and Coalition safe seats. But outside of that, people didn’t move, or they moved away from the major parties. | |
Call it the latte line, or the red rooster line or whatever it is you use as a touchstone. The result isn’t a disaster in that Labor can’t recover from - it is six seats to government from here. The question is why did minor parties prove so attractive in seats Labor thought it had a chance in, and how does it address it. | |
Josh Frydenberg has announced a picture opportunity of him getting on with the job, at Treasury at 2.30pm. | |
What will Jim Chalmers do? | |
While the expectations now is the Labor leadership will be a two-horse race, Queensland rightwinger Jim Chalmers has not yet pulled out of the contest. | |
People he’s speaking to tell me he’s likely to make a final decision tomorrow. | |
Anthony Albanese will respond to Chris Bowen’s entry into the ALP leadership contest at 2.15ish. | |
Philip Lowe continued: | Philip Lowe continued: |
There’s also been a cyclical downturn in the global electronics industry, which has weighed on investment and exports in some of the east Asian economies. | There’s also been a cyclical downturn in the global electronics industry, which has weighed on investment and exports in some of the east Asian economies. |
And the third contributing factor to the slowdown in global growth has been a series of country-specific factors, including a natural disaster in Japan, new vehicle emissions testing regime in Germany, and some extra, some additional extreme weather events. So these are some of the factors that have been at work. | And the third contributing factor to the slowdown in global growth has been a series of country-specific factors, including a natural disaster in Japan, new vehicle emissions testing regime in Germany, and some extra, some additional extreme weather events. So these are some of the factors that have been at work. |
Looking forward, though, the picture does look to be a little brighter. | Looking forward, though, the picture does look to be a little brighter. |
And it is reasonable to expect that growth will strengthen a little later in the year. | And it is reasonable to expect that growth will strengthen a little later in the year. |
And there are a number of reasons for this. | And there are a number of reasons for this. |
First of all, the Chinese authorities have responded to the slowing in their economy with some extra measures to support economic activity. | First of all, the Chinese authorities have responded to the slowing in their economy with some extra measures to support economic activity. |
Globally, financial conditions are also very accommodating, and major Central Banks have signalled an easier monetary policy stance than they had earlier signalled. | Globally, financial conditions are also very accommodating, and major Central Banks have signalled an easier monetary policy stance than they had earlier signalled. |
It’s also reasonable to expect that the drag on growth from some of the world’s specific factors, will pass in time. | It’s also reasonable to expect that the drag on growth from some of the world’s specific factors, will pass in time. |
Consumption growth in many economies also remains robust, supported by strong employment growth and by rising wages. | Consumption growth in many economies also remains robust, supported by strong employment growth and by rising wages. |
And notably, the weakness in the manufacturing sector has not spilled over in any material way to the service sectors in the advanced economies. | And notably, the weakness in the manufacturing sector has not spilled over in any material way to the service sectors in the advanced economies. |
So all this means that the global economy appears quite resilient at the moment. | So all this means that the global economy appears quite resilient at the moment. |
That of course, is supposing the US and China don’t carry out the on-going threat of a trade war. Either way, there are *fun* times ahead. | That of course, is supposing the US and China don’t carry out the on-going threat of a trade war. Either way, there are *fun* times ahead. |
The RBA is giving more indications it will cut rates next month. | The RBA is giving more indications it will cut rates next month. |
It held off in May because it wanted to look at the labour market, where it hoped to see some employment growth – that hasn’t happened, as we saw in the last labour force figures. | |
And so, Philip Lowe, in a speech in Brisbane, has said that when the Reserve Bank meets in two weeks’ time, it will “consider the case for lower interest rates”, with the belief that a “lower cash rate would support employment growth and bring forward the time when inflation is consistent with the target”. | |
A quarter of a percent cut would take the cash rate to 1.25% a record low. It has sat at 1.5% since August 2016. | A quarter of a percent cut would take the cash rate to 1.25% a record low. It has sat at 1.5% since August 2016. |
Lowe: | Lowe: |
I’ll start off with the global picture. Up until the middle of last year, the global economy was growing quite brisky, as you can see in the first chart. | I’ll start off with the global picture. Up until the middle of last year, the global economy was growing quite brisky, as you can see in the first chart. |
Then over the second half of the last year, growth slowed. | |
And a slower pails of growth has continued into this year. | And a slower pails of growth has continued into this year. |
There are a few factors which help to explain the slowing. | There are a few factors which help to explain the slowing. |
The first is a slowdown in the Chinese economy. | The first is a slowdown in the Chinese economy. |
The Chinese economy, the Chinese authorities for some time, have been seeking to address the build-up of risks in the financial system. | The Chinese economy, the Chinese authorities for some time, have been seeking to address the build-up of risks in the financial system. |
As part of their efforts on this front, they’ve sought to reign in shadow banking and the effect of this has been felt right across their economy, and because of the size of the Chinese economy, the impact has also been felt around the world. | As part of their efforts on this front, they’ve sought to reign in shadow banking and the effect of this has been felt right across their economy, and because of the size of the Chinese economy, the impact has also been felt around the world. |
The second factor is a marked slowdown in international trade, which you can see here. | The second factor is a marked slowdown in international trade, which you can see here. |
Over the past year, global trade has not grown at all. | Over the past year, global trade has not grown at all. |
This is unusual, as historically, international trade increases a bit faster than GDP. | This is unusual, as historically, international trade increases a bit faster than GDP. |
The recent weakness in international trade reflects the slowdown of the Chinese economy, but it also reflects the increase in tariffs by both the US and China. | The recent weakness in international trade reflects the slowdown of the Chinese economy, but it also reflects the increase in tariffs by both the US and China. |
Not surprisingly, slower growth in international trade has flowed through into weakened conditions in the manufacturing sectors around the world and there’s been significant disruptions to some supply chains. | Not surprisingly, slower growth in international trade has flowed through into weakened conditions in the manufacturing sectors around the world and there’s been significant disruptions to some supply chains. |
Business investment, too, has been affected with firms delaying investment decisions. In the face of the increased uncertainty brought about by the trade disputes, many businesses simply prefer to wait and to see what happens before they decide to invest. | Business investment, too, has been affected with firms delaying investment decisions. In the face of the increased uncertainty brought about by the trade disputes, many businesses simply prefer to wait and to see what happens before they decide to invest. |
It is now social media official, which is the most official of the officials | It is now social media official, which is the most official of the officials |
Today I announced my candidacy for the leadership of the Federal Parliamentary Labor Party. pic.twitter.com/pnPV9lyi0p | Today I announced my candidacy for the leadership of the Federal Parliamentary Labor Party. pic.twitter.com/pnPV9lyi0p |
It’s all but done in Chisholm: | It’s all but done in Chisholm: |
AEC has moved Chisholm (VIC) from a close seat to a Liberal Party win #ausvotes pic.twitter.com/0AZoBOOJdA | AEC has moved Chisholm (VIC) from a close seat to a Liberal Party win #ausvotes pic.twitter.com/0AZoBOOJdA |
The death tax campaign was called out as being fake, including by the ABC, who, when interviewing Tanya Plibersek in the last days of the campaign, openly referred to it as being fake when asked how Labor was combating it. | The death tax campaign was called out as being fake, including by the ABC, who, when interviewing Tanya Plibersek in the last days of the campaign, openly referred to it as being fake when asked how Labor was combating it. |
But it spread like napalm on social media and, of course, was mentioned by conservative commentators on their respective TV and radio shows. | But it spread like napalm on social media and, of course, was mentioned by conservative commentators on their respective TV and radio shows. |
People believed it – and not just in Queensland. It was across the country. | People believed it – and not just in Queensland. It was across the country. |
On the “death tax” fake news campaign which was run on social media, this is what the Labor candidate for Hume has to say: | On the “death tax” fake news campaign which was run on social media, this is what the Labor candidate for Hume has to say: |
I had voters tell me adamantly on polling booths that a 40% Death Tax was my policy. I tried to assure them it was not. They said "It IS. Yes it IS!" That and taxing pensioners. Oh, and we can't afford another Bill, and Bill's a dill. #auspol #HumeVotes | I had voters tell me adamantly on polling booths that a 40% Death Tax was my policy. I tried to assure them it was not. They said "It IS. Yes it IS!" That and taxing pensioners. Oh, and we can't afford another Bill, and Bill's a dill. #auspol #HumeVotes |
The full question and answer from the tax rebate time table question, for those wondering: | The full question and answer from the tax rebate time table question, for those wondering: |
Paul Murray: Is tax and tax cuts, because of that timeline, the first thing you have to do in the parliament? | Paul Murray: Is tax and tax cuts, because of that timeline, the first thing you have to do in the parliament? |
Scott Morrison: Yes. Yes and there are also some administrative things that we can do which we’re taking advice on now, to ensure that that becomes effective particularly for those that kick in on the 1st of July, pretty much to ensure that is achieved. But that is it because at the end of the day, that’s really what the election was all about. Not in terms of the technical issue of the tax cuts, but that’s my way of saying, “I said I trusted you”. That’s the piece of legislation which says I trust you with your own money, I want you to have more of it. That’s what speaks to aspiration. | Scott Morrison: Yes. Yes and there are also some administrative things that we can do which we’re taking advice on now, to ensure that that becomes effective particularly for those that kick in on the 1st of July, pretty much to ensure that is achieved. But that is it because at the end of the day, that’s really what the election was all about. Not in terms of the technical issue of the tax cuts, but that’s my way of saying, “I said I trusted you”. That’s the piece of legislation which says I trust you with your own money, I want you to have more of it. That’s what speaks to aspiration. |
There are so many more things. There’s setting up of course the home loan deposit guarantee with the National Housing Finance and Investment Corporation. You know my commitment to the NDIS and I know people’s frustrations with that. We will be I’ll be working on that, I just had a meeting about it now before this interview. The issues around youth mental health and getting that programme of combating youth suicide and getting those individuals together. I’ve already been talking to the head of the North Queensland Livestock Recovery Agency and making sure that the work that we set in train there before the election is hitting the ground and the way we need it. So the drought and the floods still very much foremost in my mind. | There are so many more things. There’s setting up of course the home loan deposit guarantee with the National Housing Finance and Investment Corporation. You know my commitment to the NDIS and I know people’s frustrations with that. We will be I’ll be working on that, I just had a meeting about it now before this interview. The issues around youth mental health and getting that programme of combating youth suicide and getting those individuals together. I’ve already been talking to the head of the North Queensland Livestock Recovery Agency and making sure that the work that we set in train there before the election is hitting the ground and the way we need it. So the drought and the floods still very much foremost in my mind. |
And the Sunshine Coast Daily has been forced to apologise for its frontpage putting a literal crosshair on the Queensland premier, Annastacia Palaszczuk. | And the Sunshine Coast Daily has been forced to apologise for its frontpage putting a literal crosshair on the Queensland premier, Annastacia Palaszczuk. |
The paper had originally refused to backdown. Seems like enough of the community was outraged by it, that it had to take a different, if belated, stance. As Amanda Meade reports: | The paper had originally refused to backdown. Seems like enough of the community was outraged by it, that it had to take a different, if belated, stance. As Amanda Meade reports: |
The Sunshine Coast Daily has belatedly apologised for publishing a front page featuring Annastacia Palaszczuk in the crosshairs of a rifle with the words “Anna, you’re next”. | The Sunshine Coast Daily has belatedly apologised for publishing a front page featuring Annastacia Palaszczuk in the crosshairs of a rifle with the words “Anna, you’re next”. |
After initially refusing to remove the image, the paper later said in a statement it apologised “to those of you in the community who feel let down and betrayed by the image”, following a storm of protest. | After initially refusing to remove the image, the paper later said in a statement it apologised “to those of you in the community who feel let down and betrayed by the image”, following a storm of protest. |