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Federal election 2019: Chris Bowen says Labor policy now a 'blank canvas' as he confirms run for leadership – politics live Federal election 2019: Chris Bowen says Labor policy now a 'blank canvas' as he confirms run for leadership – politics live
(32 minutes later)
Philip Lowe continued:
There’s also been a cyclical downturn in the global electronics industry, which has weighed on investment and exports in some of the east Asian economies.
And the third contributing factor to the slowdown in global growth has been a series of country-specific factors, including a natural disaster in Japan, new vehicle emissions testing regime in Germany, and some extra, some additional extreme weather events. So these are some of the factors that have been at work.
Looking forward, though, the picture does look to be a little brighter.
And it is reasonable to expect that growth will strengthen a little later in the year.
And there are a number of reasons for this.
First of all, the Chinese authorities have responded to the slowing in their economy with some extra measures to support economic activity.
Globally, financial conditions are also very accommodating, and major Central Banks have signalled an easier monetary policy stance than they had earlier signalled.
It’s also reasonable to expect that the drag on growth from some of the world’s specific factors, will pass in time.
Consumption growth in many economies also remains robust, supported by strong employment growth and by rising wages.
And notably, the weakness in the manufacturing sector has not spilled over in any material way to the service sectors in the advanced economies.
So all this means that the global economy appears quite resilient at the moment.
That of course, is supposing the US and China don’t carry out the on-going threat of a trade war. Either way, there are *fun* times ahead.
The RBA is giving more indications it will cut rates next month.
It held off in May because it wanted to look at the labour market, where it hoped to see some employment growth - that hasn’t happened, as we saw in the last labour force figures.
And so, Philip Lowe, in a speech in Brisbane, has said that when the reserve bank meets in two weeks time, it will “consider the case for lower interest rates”, with the belief that a “lower cash rate would support employment growth and bring forward the time when inflation is consistent with the target”.
A quarter of a percent cut would take the cash rate to 1.25% a record low. It has sat at 1.5% since August 2016.
Lowe:
I’ll start off with the global picture. Up until the middle of last year, the global economy was growing quite brisky, as you can see in the first chart.
Then over the second-half of the last year, growth slowed.
And a slower pails of growth has continued into this year.
There are a few factors which help to explain the slowing.
The first is a slowdown in the Chinese economy.
The Chinese economy, the Chinese authorities for some time, have been seeking to address the build-up of risks in the financial system.
As part of their efforts on this front, they’ve sought to reign in shadow banking and the effect of this has been felt right across their economy, and because of the size of the Chinese economy, the impact has also been felt around the world.
The second factor is a marked slowdown in international trade, which you can see here.
Over the past year, global trade has not grown at all.
This is unusual, as historically, international trade increases a bit faster than GDP.
The recent weakness in international trade reflects the slowdown of the Chinese economy, but it also reflects the increase in tariffs by both the US and China.
Not surprisingly, slower growth in international trade has flowed through into weakened conditions in the manufacturing sectors around the world and there’s been significant disruptions to some supply chains.
Business investment, too, has been affected with firms delaying investment decisions. In the face of the increased uncertainty brought about by the trade disputes, many businesses simply prefer to wait and to see what happens before they decide to invest.
It is now social media official, which is the most official of the officials
Today I announced my candidacy for the leadership of the Federal Parliamentary Labor Party. pic.twitter.com/pnPV9lyi0p
It’s all but done in Chisholm:
AEC has moved Chisholm (VIC) from a close seat to a Liberal Party win #ausvotes pic.twitter.com/0AZoBOOJdA
The death tax campaign was called out as being fake, including by the ABC, who, when interviewing Tanya Plibersek in the last days of the campaign, openly referred to it as being fake when asked how Labor was combating it.The death tax campaign was called out as being fake, including by the ABC, who, when interviewing Tanya Plibersek in the last days of the campaign, openly referred to it as being fake when asked how Labor was combating it.
But it spread like napalm on social media and, of course, was mentioned by conservative commentators on their respective TV and radio shows.But it spread like napalm on social media and, of course, was mentioned by conservative commentators on their respective TV and radio shows.
People believed it – and not just in Queensland. It was across the country.People believed it – and not just in Queensland. It was across the country.
On the “death tax” fake news campaign which was run on social media, this is what the Labor candidate for Hume has to say:On the “death tax” fake news campaign which was run on social media, this is what the Labor candidate for Hume has to say:
I had voters tell me adamantly on polling booths that a 40% Death Tax was my policy. I tried to assure them it was not. They said "It IS. Yes it IS!" That and taxing pensioners. Oh, and we can't afford another Bill, and Bill's a dill. #auspol #HumeVotesI had voters tell me adamantly on polling booths that a 40% Death Tax was my policy. I tried to assure them it was not. They said "It IS. Yes it IS!" That and taxing pensioners. Oh, and we can't afford another Bill, and Bill's a dill. #auspol #HumeVotes
The full question and answer from the tax rebate time table question, for those wondering:The full question and answer from the tax rebate time table question, for those wondering:
Paul Murray: Is tax and tax cuts, because of that timeline, the first thing you have to do in the parliament?Paul Murray: Is tax and tax cuts, because of that timeline, the first thing you have to do in the parliament?
Scott Morrison: Yes. Yes and there are also some administrative things that we can do which we’re taking advice on now, to ensure that that becomes effective particularly for those that kick in on the 1st of July, pretty much to ensure that is achieved. But that is it because at the end of the day, that’s really what the election was all about. Not in terms of the technical issue of the tax cuts, but that’s my way of saying, “I said I trusted you”. That’s the piece of legislation which says I trust you with your own money, I want you to have more of it. That’s what speaks to aspiration.Scott Morrison: Yes. Yes and there are also some administrative things that we can do which we’re taking advice on now, to ensure that that becomes effective particularly for those that kick in on the 1st of July, pretty much to ensure that is achieved. But that is it because at the end of the day, that’s really what the election was all about. Not in terms of the technical issue of the tax cuts, but that’s my way of saying, “I said I trusted you”. That’s the piece of legislation which says I trust you with your own money, I want you to have more of it. That’s what speaks to aspiration.
There are so many more things. There’s setting up of course the home loan deposit guarantee with the National Housing Finance and Investment Corporation. You know my commitment to the NDIS and I know people’s frustrations with that. We will be I’ll be working on that, I just had a meeting about it now before this interview. The issues around youth mental health and getting that programme of combating youth suicide and getting those individuals together. I’ve already been talking to the head of the North Queensland Livestock Recovery Agency and making sure that the work that we set in train there before the election is hitting the ground and the way we need it. So the drought and the floods still very much foremost in my mind.There are so many more things. There’s setting up of course the home loan deposit guarantee with the National Housing Finance and Investment Corporation. You know my commitment to the NDIS and I know people’s frustrations with that. We will be I’ll be working on that, I just had a meeting about it now before this interview. The issues around youth mental health and getting that programme of combating youth suicide and getting those individuals together. I’ve already been talking to the head of the North Queensland Livestock Recovery Agency and making sure that the work that we set in train there before the election is hitting the ground and the way we need it. So the drought and the floods still very much foremost in my mind.
And the Sunshine Coast Daily has been forced to apologise for its frontpage putting a literal crosshair on the Queensland premier, Annastacia Palaszczuk.And the Sunshine Coast Daily has been forced to apologise for its frontpage putting a literal crosshair on the Queensland premier, Annastacia Palaszczuk.
The paper had originally refused to backdown. Seems like enough of the community was outraged by it, that it had to take a different, if belated, stance. As Amanda Meade reports:The paper had originally refused to backdown. Seems like enough of the community was outraged by it, that it had to take a different, if belated, stance. As Amanda Meade reports:
The Sunshine Coast Daily has belatedly apologised for publishing a front page featuring Annastacia Palaszczuk in the crosshairs of a rifle with the words “Anna, you’re next”.The Sunshine Coast Daily has belatedly apologised for publishing a front page featuring Annastacia Palaszczuk in the crosshairs of a rifle with the words “Anna, you’re next”.
After initially refusing to remove the image, the paper later said in a statement it apologised “to those of you in the community who feel let down and betrayed by the image”, following a storm of protest.After initially refusing to remove the image, the paper later said in a statement it apologised “to those of you in the community who feel let down and betrayed by the image”, following a storm of protest.
Sarah Hanson-Young is wasting no time now she knows she is back in the Senate.Sarah Hanson-Young is wasting no time now she knows she is back in the Senate.
She is calling for Scott Morrison and the Coalition’s South Australian MPs to ensure Barnaby Joyce is not promoted back to the water ministry in the new cabinet.She is calling for Scott Morrison and the Coalition’s South Australian MPs to ensure Barnaby Joyce is not promoted back to the water ministry in the new cabinet.
This seems like a slight overreaction, but New Zealand is a very nice country – the NZ Herald is reporting the number of Australians looking at moving to New Zealand has quadrupled since the election:This seems like a slight overreaction, but New Zealand is a very nice country – the NZ Herald is reporting the number of Australians looking at moving to New Zealand has quadrupled since the election:
Immigration New Zealand registered four times more website visits than usual from Australia the day after the Liberal coalition’s general election win.Immigration New Zealand registered four times more website visits than usual from Australia the day after the Liberal coalition’s general election win.
More than 11,500 people logged onto the Immigration New Zealand website and its information site New Zealand Now on Sunday, compared to fewer than 2500 the previous Sunday.More than 11,500 people logged onto the Immigration New Zealand website and its information site New Zealand Now on Sunday, compared to fewer than 2500 the previous Sunday.
Google analytics also showed a spike in Australians searching the words ‘moving to New Zealand’, particularly those from Queensland.Google analytics also showed a spike in Australians searching the words ‘moving to New Zealand’, particularly those from Queensland.
The true level of interest in emigrating is difficult to gauge as Australian citizens do not need a visa to travel to New Zealand, although its visa-holders do.The true level of interest in emigrating is difficult to gauge as Australian citizens do not need a visa to travel to New Zealand, although its visa-holders do.
The number who started the visa process, through registrations of interest, jumped from 20 to 715.The number who started the visa process, through registrations of interest, jumped from 20 to 715.
A lot of attention on what went wrong in Queensland for Labor still – and it will continue. Bill Shorten was not popular in Queensland, which had been reported – neither was Malcolm Turnbull. Scott Morrison’s elevation to the leadership saw an instant bump in confidence.A lot of attention on what went wrong in Queensland for Labor still – and it will continue. Bill Shorten was not popular in Queensland, which had been reported – neither was Malcolm Turnbull. Scott Morrison’s elevation to the leadership saw an instant bump in confidence.
But the three things that keep coming up in the debrief:But the three things that keep coming up in the debrief:
Right now it is –Right now it is –
Adani – that the campaign the company itself, Clive Palmer and others ran was effective in making Labor look like it was going to shut down the coal industry, with no plan for jobs.Adani – that the campaign the company itself, Clive Palmer and others ran was effective in making Labor look like it was going to shut down the coal industry, with no plan for jobs.
Franking credits – the “retiree tax” furphy bit hard.Franking credits – the “retiree tax” furphy bit hard.
Death taxes – a social media campaign which had no basis, but which took off like wildfire.Death taxes – a social media campaign which had no basis, but which took off like wildfire.
There are currently 50 votes separating Macquarie, with Labor behind.There are currently 50 votes separating Macquarie, with Labor behind.
The advice keeps coming:The advice keeps coming:
Stephen Conroy: Australian's sent the message. They're not prepared to suffer further increases in electricity prices without a practical path forward. Labor has to step back from the @Greens and @GetUp led demonisation of coal.MORE: https://t.co/ZDLxzYd6Cq #amagenda pic.twitter.com/mNXHbeOJcOStephen Conroy: Australian's sent the message. They're not prepared to suffer further increases in electricity prices without a practical path forward. Labor has to step back from the @Greens and @GetUp led demonisation of coal.MORE: https://t.co/ZDLxzYd6Cq #amagenda pic.twitter.com/mNXHbeOJcO
Clare O’Neil was asked last night on ABC radio what she believed went wrong for Labor:Clare O’Neil was asked last night on ABC radio what she believed went wrong for Labor:
... Some things are just complicated, Raf. And one of the things I’ve been reflecting on is that you can do one or two complex things at once but maybe not five or six. And the difference between being in government and trying to prosecute a complex agenda and being in opposition and doing it is quite stark.... Some things are just complicated, Raf. And one of the things I’ve been reflecting on is that you can do one or two complex things at once but maybe not five or six. And the difference between being in government and trying to prosecute a complex agenda and being in opposition and doing it is quite stark.
So if I can just remind people about John Hewson tried to bring in a GST from opposition – failed terribly. But Howard did it from government and got re-elected on that basis. So I’m just thinking also about Daniel Andrews in Victoria – he’s got a very complex and deep infrastructure agenda but we all know he’s going to do it because, in his first term, he set about showing us that he could do it. And that’s what you get the opportunity to do in government. So I think that was part of it.So if I can just remind people about John Hewson tried to bring in a GST from opposition – failed terribly. But Howard did it from government and got re-elected on that basis. So I’m just thinking also about Daniel Andrews in Victoria – he’s got a very complex and deep infrastructure agenda but we all know he’s going to do it because, in his first term, he set about showing us that he could do it. And that’s what you get the opportunity to do in government. So I think that was part of it.
Chris Bowen’s pitch for the leadership boils down to this:Chris Bowen’s pitch for the leadership boils down to this:
My pitch is that I can connect with suburban and regional Australia. I come from the suburbs, from here.My pitch is that I can connect with suburban and regional Australia. I come from the suburbs, from here.
My wife and I are raising two wonderful kids down the road from here in Smithfield, the same suburb that I grew up in, in this house.My wife and I are raising two wonderful kids down the road from here in Smithfield, the same suburb that I grew up in, in this house.
I can, I think, lead the economic debate, which we must win, as leader. We must win. In my experience.I can, I think, lead the economic debate, which we must win, as leader. We must win. In my experience.
I’ve got some things right and some things wrong over the years. I’ve been in parliament 15 years. I’m not perfect but I’ve learned. We have to win the economic growth story and I think that I can do that.I’ve got some things right and some things wrong over the years. I’ve been in parliament 15 years. I’m not perfect but I’ve learned. We have to win the economic growth story and I think that I can do that.
I think that I can take the party to a good position on economic growth and creating jobs.I think that I can take the party to a good position on economic growth and creating jobs.
We can’t leave jobs and growth to the other side. The Labor party is the party of economic growth for the reasons that I outlined.We can’t leave jobs and growth to the other side. The Labor party is the party of economic growth for the reasons that I outlined.
To lead people out of poverty and into reality. I believe that I can add value there.To lead people out of poverty and into reality. I believe that I can add value there.
The party members can weigh up the competing option and decide from there. Thank you very much.The party members can weigh up the competing option and decide from there. Thank you very much.
Question: Are you willing to support mining jobs?Question: Are you willing to support mining jobs?
Bowen: Yes. [He gives the same answer when asked if coalmining has a future.]Bowen: Yes. [He gives the same answer when asked if coalmining has a future.]
Question: Just on the contest, how do you go to the questions and would you and Anthony Albanese do a series of debates in the country?Question: Just on the contest, how do you go to the questions and would you and Anthony Albanese do a series of debates in the country?
Bowen: Possibly, probably. I think that branch members should see us in various formats. He will no doubt be doing functioning and doing campaign functions for himself. I’ll do the same and there will probably be some formal debates but that hasn’t been agreed.Bowen: Possibly, probably. I think that branch members should see us in various formats. He will no doubt be doing functioning and doing campaign functions for himself. I’ll do the same and there will probably be some formal debates but that hasn’t been agreed.
Question: If Albo does win, would you want to stay on as shadow treasurer?Question: If Albo does win, would you want to stay on as shadow treasurer?
Bowen: I would discuss that with him.Bowen: I would discuss that with him.
Question: On the party membership vote, Albo won in 2013. If he wins again, how many times can you ignore the party membership?Question: On the party membership vote, Albo won in 2013. If he wins again, how many times can you ignore the party membership?
Bowen: We have a system. The system says that the caucus has a say and whoever has the most votes in the end wins. That’s the system. The system that I support. It used to just be caucus. I would expect that if it was just a caucus vote, I would do pretty good. It’s not just that, it’s the party members vote.Bowen: We have a system. The system says that the caucus has a say and whoever has the most votes in the end wins. That’s the system. The system that I support. It used to just be caucus. I would expect that if it was just a caucus vote, I would do pretty good. It’s not just that, it’s the party members vote.
Albo, I’m sure, wouldn’t have it any other way. We both were supporters of the new system when it came in.Albo, I’m sure, wouldn’t have it any other way. We both were supporters of the new system when it came in.
But the system means that you’ve got to try your luck with both.But the system means that you’ve got to try your luck with both.
Question: Two questions here. Firstly, Queensland is a big problem for you. One: how will you personally win back voters in Queensland? And secondly, we saw today, Scott Morrison looks like he’s broken his first promise of not getting the tax cuts through.Question: Two questions here. Firstly, Queensland is a big problem for you. One: how will you personally win back voters in Queensland? And secondly, we saw today, Scott Morrison looks like he’s broken his first promise of not getting the tax cuts through.
Bowen: I’ll deal with the second point first.Bowen: I’ll deal with the second point first.
Here we go. The election is not even a couple of days over and Scott Morrison has broken his promise.Here we go. The election is not even a couple of days over and Scott Morrison has broken his promise.
And it’s worse than that – he lied about it. I said at the time, for those of you who aren’t sure what Chris is referring to, he’s now said that the parliament won’t come back and they won’t pass the tax cuts and they might need to wait a year.And it’s worse than that – he lied about it. I said at the time, for those of you who aren’t sure what Chris is referring to, he’s now said that the parliament won’t come back and they won’t pass the tax cuts and they might need to wait a year.
He said back then – it doesn’t matter, parliament doesn’t need to sit and I could do it administratively.He said back then – it doesn’t matter, parliament doesn’t need to sit and I could do it administratively.
I pointed out that that was wrong and the ATO said it was wrong. And he denied it. He wasn’t telling the truth.I pointed out that that was wrong and the ATO said it was wrong. And he denied it. He wasn’t telling the truth.
That, I think, says a lot about this government.That, I think, says a lot about this government.
Here we are a couple of days in and they’re already breaking promises and important once.Here we are a couple of days in and they’re already breaking promises and important once.
Because tax cuts were a pretty important part of the election pitch, right!Because tax cuts were a pretty important part of the election pitch, right!
And if the Australian people have to wait another year for the tax cuts, I think it’s an indictment on his government and the character of the prime minister.And if the Australian people have to wait another year for the tax cuts, I think it’s an indictment on his government and the character of the prime minister.
The first question you asked me was about Queensland. I’d work closely with my Queensland colleagues, strategising what we would have to do.The first question you asked me was about Queensland. I’d work closely with my Queensland colleagues, strategising what we would have to do.
I spent a lot of time going up Queensland’s coast and some inland, particularly with Jim Chalmers and Anthony Chisholm.I spent a lot of time going up Queensland’s coast and some inland, particularly with Jim Chalmers and Anthony Chisholm.
We’ve been to Rockhampton, Mackay, Bowen. Great place! Cairns, Townsville, Mount Isa, Gympie. Gin Gin. We’ve done a lot in the last six years and I would continue to do that if I was leader.We’ve been to Rockhampton, Mackay, Bowen. Great place! Cairns, Townsville, Mount Isa, Gympie. Gin Gin. We’ve done a lot in the last six years and I would continue to do that if I was leader.
My family moved to Australia from Wales in 1880, and they settled in Mount Morgan, a small town in Queensland.My family moved to Australia from Wales in 1880, and they settled in Mount Morgan, a small town in Queensland.
I don’t suggest to you that that means that I some particular affinity because my family moved to Sydney many decades ago. But it’s important to me. It’s important to me. And we need to have a plan for Queensland jobs. People in some of those towns are doing it very tough, and saying that the 26 years of uninterrupted growth, what’s in it for me. And people like Clive Palmer come along and say that they’ve got a solution. No, they don’t. But they are talking to people about things on their mine. So we need to do the same.I don’t suggest to you that that means that I some particular affinity because my family moved to Sydney many decades ago. But it’s important to me. It’s important to me. And we need to have a plan for Queensland jobs. People in some of those towns are doing it very tough, and saying that the 26 years of uninterrupted growth, what’s in it for me. And people like Clive Palmer come along and say that they’ve got a solution. No, they don’t. But they are talking to people about things on their mine. So we need to do the same.
Question: Just on the point of Queensland jobs, what would be your stance about Adani?Question: Just on the point of Queensland jobs, what would be your stance about Adani?
Bowen: I pretty much agree with what Joel said there. I think in hindsight, we weren’t very clear. I don’t accept that the criticism that we were trying to be all things for all people. I don’t accept that. I think that our position was, perhaps, not as clear as it should have been and we should adopt a clear position. Now, in terms of going forward, again, I’m not the leader. I may or may not be the leader. It will be a collective decision through the shadow cabinet working closely with the relevant shadow minister.Bowen: I pretty much agree with what Joel said there. I think in hindsight, we weren’t very clear. I don’t accept that the criticism that we were trying to be all things for all people. I don’t accept that. I think that our position was, perhaps, not as clear as it should have been and we should adopt a clear position. Now, in terms of going forward, again, I’m not the leader. I may or may not be the leader. It will be a collective decision through the shadow cabinet working closely with the relevant shadow minister.
Question: Do you think that there is too much overconfidence in the election?Question: Do you think that there is too much overconfidence in the election?
Bowen: We were confident. I think that in our defence, so was everybody on our behalf, including your good selves. It looked like we were going to win. We were never complacent. We never thought that it was in the bag. I know that Bill didn’t. We spoke every day during the campaign, he never thought that it was over. He thought that we were in with a good chance. So did I. I thought we’d win. I don’t think that I’m alone there.Bowen: We were confident. I think that in our defence, so was everybody on our behalf, including your good selves. It looked like we were going to win. We were never complacent. We never thought that it was in the bag. I know that Bill didn’t. We spoke every day during the campaign, he never thought that it was over. He thought that we were in with a good chance. So did I. I thought we’d win. I don’t think that I’m alone there.
That’s what makes the loss so crushing for the party.That’s what makes the loss so crushing for the party.
You know, we did expect to win. There’s no point glossing over that, but we weren’t complacent. We were fighting to the last fight. And so was Bill, but now we have to think about how to change that.You know, we did expect to win. There’s no point glossing over that, but we weren’t complacent. We were fighting to the last fight. And so was Bill, but now we have to think about how to change that.
Question: If the ALP doesn’t have someone from the bush to make the table, that the party will still making the same mistakes. Do you agree with that?Question: If the ALP doesn’t have someone from the bush to make the table, that the party will still making the same mistakes. Do you agree with that?
Bowen: Yes, I do think that those members from the regional area should have a say in our policy deliberations at a senior level. Joel is a close friend of mine and consistent in saying that the Labor party has to be about the bush and the regions as well as the cities and inner cities. He’s 100% right. We’ve got to lift our performance there and win more in the recent ones. So he’s right about that. It’s up to Joel to run whether he’s going to run as leader or not. But I would very much, and I spent a lot of time in the regions as shadow treasurer.Bowen: Yes, I do think that those members from the regional area should have a say in our policy deliberations at a senior level. Joel is a close friend of mine and consistent in saying that the Labor party has to be about the bush and the regions as well as the cities and inner cities. He’s 100% right. We’ve got to lift our performance there and win more in the recent ones. So he’s right about that. It’s up to Joel to run whether he’s going to run as leader or not. But I would very much, and I spent a lot of time in the regions as shadow treasurer.
I always had the view that the economy is not just about Sydney and Melbourne. I needed to get out and hear what was happening and a lot things that I saw worried me in regional Australia, so I have gotten to know regional Australia. And Joel, which I fully support him on, we need to bring the voices of regional Australia to a more senior level.I always had the view that the economy is not just about Sydney and Melbourne. I needed to get out and hear what was happening and a lot things that I saw worried me in regional Australia, so I have gotten to know regional Australia. And Joel, which I fully support him on, we need to bring the voices of regional Australia to a more senior level.