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Federal election 2019: Scott Morrison's government on track for majority with 78 seats – politics live
Federal election 2019: Scott Morrison's government on track for majority with 78 seats – politics live
(32 minutes later)
There are still 50 votes in the Macquarie count, going the Liberals’ way.
There are about 13% or so of the votes left to count.
Josh Frydenberg confirms that the government will be taking its tax rebates policy to the parliament as a whole package.
Josh Frydenberg confirms that the government will be taking its tax rebates policy to the parliament as a whole package.
Which includes reducing the 32.5% tax bracket to 30%, lowering the thresholds and the higher income tax rebates members of the crossbench have said they are against.
Which includes reducing the 32.5% tax bracket to 30%, lowering the thresholds and the higher income tax rebates that members of the crossbench have said they are against.
So, at this stage, it’s an all or nothing deal.
So, at this stage, it’s an all or nothing deal.
Question: Was it a misrepresentation during the campaign to say you could [put through the tax rebate before June 30]
Question: Was it a misrepresentation during the campaign to say you could [put through the tax rebate before June 30]?
Frydenberg: The reports in the paper today of a year are wrong. The tax relief will be delivered as set out in the budget. There is bipartisan support but weneed to pass the legislation and that can only pass when the parliament resumes. And the parliament can only resume when the writs are returned.
Frydenberg: The reports in the paper today of a year are wrong. The tax relief will be delivered as set out in the budget. There is bipartisan support but we need to pass the legislation and that can only pass when the parliament resumes. And the parliament can only resume when the writs are returned.
Question: Was the Prime Minister wrong when he said this could be done administratively? When did you know that you could not get this through without legislation?
Question: Was the prime minister wrong when he said this could be done administratively? When did you know that you could not get this through without legislation?
Frydenberg: Well, as you know, the ATO have put on their website that they can move very quickly, as soon as the legislation is passed. That is the key point. And we want to pass the legislation as our first priority, as our first order of business.
Frydenberg: Well, as you know, the ATO have put on their website that they can move very quickly, as soon as the legislation is passed. That is the key point. And we want to pass the legislation as our first priority, as our first order of business.
Question: The government has committed to repealing the medivac bill. If the Senate says no, will keeping Christmas Island open put a hole in the budget?
Question: The government has committed to repealing the medivac bill. If the Senate says no, will keeping Christmas Island open put a hole in the budget?
Frydenberg: We have made allocations in the budget for the maintenance of Christmas Island. But let me just make it very clear, it is our policy to reverse that legislation. We can only reverse the legislation if it passes both houses of parliament. So let’s work that through when the parliament resumes.
Frydenberg: We have made allocations in the budget for the maintenance of Christmas Island. But let me just make it very clear, it is our policy to reverse that legislation. We can only reverse the legislation if it passes both houses of parliament. So let’s work that through when the parliament resumes.
Question: The full tax cut to Australian voters this financial year, is that breaking an election promise? And also, that extra payment, will that be a one-off payment that people will receive? And after by the end of this year? When will they get the extra money?
Question: The full tax cut to Australian voters this financial year, is that breaking an election promise? And also, that extra payment, will that be a one-off payment that people will receive? And after by the end of this year? When will they get the extra money?
Frydenberg: The reports in the paper today that there will be a delay of a year are wrong. That is wrong. Those media reports are wrong.
Frydenberg: The reports in the paper today that there will be a delay of a year are wrong. That is wrong. Those media reports are wrong.
Q: How long will they be?
Q: How long will they be?
Frydenberg: We have got to pass the legislation. I also point out, that the legislation has bipartisan support. And that is really important to point out. So it shouldn’t be a question of getting the support through the house for this legislation. As I said, we have already legislated the $530. The extension to $580 will be done as quickly as the parliament resumes but there are processes and those are for the writs to return.
Frydenberg: We have got to pass the legislation. I also point out that the legislation has bipartisan support. And that is really important to point out. So it shouldn’t be a question of getting the support through the house for this legislation. As I said, we have already legislated the $530. The extension to $580 will be done as quickly as the parliament resumes but there are processes and those are for the writs to return.
Question: Treasurer, how good can the Australian economy be when the Reserve Bank governor has signalled a rate cut in two weeks’ time and the government needs to spend more on infrastructure than what has been announced and adds structural reforms such as IR on the agenda?
Question: Treasurer, how good can the Australian economy be when the Reserve Bank governor has signalled a rate cut in two weeks’ time and the government needs to spend more on infrastructure than what has been announced and adds structural reforms such as IR on the agenda?
Frydenberg: And the Reserve Bank governor also addressed the aspect of tax relief, saying it is very important, which under lines what we spelled out in the budget and providing more disposal income to more Australians will be on the overall economy.
Frydenberg:
But we are taking action on infrastructure. $100 billion of infrastructure spending for nation-building projects like snowy 2.0, the fast rail between Melbourne andGeelong, the rail link in Melbourne.
And the Reserve Bank governor also addressed the aspect of tax relief, saying it is very important, which underlines what we spelled out in the budget and providing more disposable income to more Australians will be on the overall economy.
There is a host of road and rail projects that the Federal Government is supporting with infrastructure spending.
But we are taking action on infrastructure – $100bn of infrastructure spending for nation-building projects like snowy 2.0, the fast rail between Melbourne and Geelong, the rail link in Melbourne. There is a host of road and rail projects that the federal government is supporting with infrastructure spending.
Let me be clear because you raised about industrial relations. We have put on the place a cop on the beat with the construction commission.
Let me be clear because you raised about industrial relations. We have put in place a cop on the beat with the construction commission. Labor’s policy was to abolish the ABCC but since we have come to government we have seen a 40% reduction in the days lost to industrial disputation as a result of our workplace relations policies. So we will take all the action that is needed to ensure the Australian economy remains strong.
The Labor’s policy was to abolish the ABCC but since we have come to government we have seen a 40% reduction in the days lost to industrial disputation as a result of our workplace relations policies.
So we will take all the action that is needed to ensure the Australian economy remains strong.
But what has also been acknowledged by the Reserve Bank governor is the fact that the labour markets remains strong. We have created over 1.3 million new jobs, meeting our commitment to the Australian people, that we would create more than a million new jobs.
But what has also been acknowledged by the Reserve Bank governor is the fact that the labour markets remains strong. We have created over 1.3 million new jobs, meeting our commitment to the Australian people, that we would create more than a million new jobs.
And we have created a new pledge that we will create over 1.25 million new jobs over the next five years.
And we have created a new pledge that we will create over 1.25 million new jobs over the next five years.
And in the most recent employment data, we saw a 28,000 new jobs were created and eight out of 10 new jobs have been created over the last year have been full time and female workforce participation is also at a record high.
And in the most recent employment data, we saw 28,000 new jobs were created and eight out of 10 new jobs have been created over the last year have been full time and female workforce participation is also at a record high.
But he is really holding the press conference to address this:
But he is really holding the press conference to address this:
I also just want to address a topic that has been in the media today about the timing of the tax relief outlined in the budget.
I also just want to address a topic that has been in the media today about the timing of the tax relief outlined in the budget.
Let me be very clear: The tax relief promised in the budget will be delivered. As you know, in last year’s budget we announced tax offset of $530.
Let me be very clear: the tax relief promised in the budget will be delivered. As you know, in last year’s budget we announced a tax offset of $530. That will be available from 1 July, and that is already legislated.
That will be available from 1 July, and that is already legislated. In this year’s budget, we extended the tax offset to $1,080 for those earning up to $100 26,000. The legislation needs to be passed and it will be the first priority of business once the parliament resumes.
In this year’s budget we extended the tax offset to $1,080 for those earning up to $126,000. The legislation needs to be passed and it will be the first priority of business once the parliament resumes.
As the Prime Minister has said, it is not likely that the parliament will resume before the end of June because we have to wait for the writs to be returned.
As the prime minister has said, it is not likely that the parliament will resume before the end of June because we have to wait for the writs to be returned.
But let me be very clear: The tax relief outlined in the budget will be delivered to millions of Australians.
But let me be very clear: The tax relief outlined in the budget will be delivered to millions of Australians.
Again, that is going to depend on when it can get it through the senate.
Again, that is going to depend on when it can get it through the senate.
Josh Frydenberg is standing in front of Treasury talking about the government’s ‘strong economic plan’
Josh Frydenberg is standing in front of Treasury talking about the government’s “strong economic plan”:
It is very clear that the Australian economy is facing some economic headwinds. Economic headwinds, globally, as trade tensions rise between China and the United States. China is our number one trading partner.
It is very clear that the Australian economy is facing some economic headwinds. Economic headwinds, globally, as trade tensions rise between China and the United States. China is our number one trading partner. The United Nations is our number one investment partner.
The United Nations is our No.1 investment partner. Domestically, we are seeing the impacts of flood and drought as well as a slowdown in the housing market and the implications that that has.
Domestically, we are seeing the impacts of flood and drought as well as a slowdown in the housing market and the implications that that has.
But the fundamentals of the Australian economy are sound. And, it underlines the importance of our budget, released and delivered just a matter of weeks ago, with its emphasis on not only paying down Labor’s debt but providing tax relief to millions of Australians..
But the fundamentals of the Australian economy are sound. And it underlines the importance of our budget, released and delivered just a matter of weeks ago, with its emphasis on not only paying down Labor’s debt but providing tax relief to millions of Australians.
The Queensland government has dropped court proceedings against Adani, after coming to an agreement about stormwater discharge. From the Australian Marine Conservation Society:
The Queensland government has dropped court proceedings against Adani, after coming to an agreement about stormwater discharge. From the Australian Marine Conservation Society:
A Queensland Government order that Adani must install new stormwater discharge monitoring equipment at its Abbot Point coal port won’t change the port’s risk to the state’s precious Great Barrier Reef, says the Australian Marine Conservation Society.
A Queensland Government order that Adani must install new stormwater discharge monitoring equipment at its Abbot Point coal port won’t change the port’s risk to the state’s precious Great Barrier Reef, says the Australian Marine Conservation Society.
The “enforceable undertaking” will also see the government drop its court proceedings against Adani for the March 2017 incident.
The “enforceable undertaking” will also see the government drop its court proceedings against Adani for the March 2017 incident.
Imogen Zethoven, director of strategy at AMCS, said: “Some 64,000 Queenslanders rely on a healthy Reef for their jobs. Our Reef needs cleaner water and a cooler climate - this coal port is a huge risk on both those counts.
Imogen Zethoven, director of strategy at AMCS, said: “Some 64,000 Queenslanders rely on a healthy Reef for their jobs. Our Reef needs cleaner water and a cooler climate – this coal port is a huge risk on both those counts.
“After Cyclone Debbie in 2017, a discharge point at the Adani coal port at Abbot Point saw water flowing into our Great Barrier Reef with concentrations of solids at 800 percent their allowable limits.
“After Cyclone Debbie in 2017, a discharge point at the Adani coal port at Abbot Point saw water flowing into our Great Barrier Reef with concentrations of solids at 800 percent their allowable limits.
“This agreement between Adani and the Queensland Government asks the company to install real-time monitoring equipment to record any future coal-contaminated discharges into the Great Barrier Reef. Any investment that Adani is now making comes after the threat of court proceedings. But as our climate warms, this coastline is going to experience more extreme weather and increasing risk of further discharges.
“This agreement between Adani and the Queensland Government asks the company to install real-time monitoring equipment to record any future coal-contaminated discharges into the Great Barrier Reef. Any investment that Adani is now making comes after the threat of court proceedings. But as our climate warms, this coastline is going to experience more extreme weather and increasing risk of further discharges.
“This coal port is risking the Reef from its role in helping the world to burn more coal at a time when our Great Barrier Reef is bearing the brunt of the climate emergency.
“This coal port is risking the Reef from its role in helping the world to burn more coal at a time when our Great Barrier Reef is bearing the brunt of the climate emergency.
“Adani’s environmental record in India is terrible, including a major coal spill into the marine environment near Mumbai that it failed to clean up for more than five years. Adani cannot be trusted with our Reef.”
“Adani’s environmental record in India is terrible, including a major coal spill into the marine environment near Mumbai that it failed to clean up for more than five years. Adani cannot be trusted with our Reef.”
Also worth looking at, in that Philip Lowe speech, is his response to a proposal the banking regulator, the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority has released, which would see the rule that assesses potential mortgage customers on their ability to repay a loan at a 7.25% interest rate, scrapped.
Also worth looking at, in that Philip Lowe speech, is his response to a proposal the banking regulator, the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority, has released, which would see the rule that assesses potential mortgage customers on their ability to repay a loan at a 7.25% interest rate, scrapped.
That was put in place during the property boom. Following the crackdown on the banks, lending got much tighter, which has created concerns home loan lending has gone too far in the other direction - that it is too difficult.
That was put in place during the property boom. Following the crackdown on the banks, lending got much tighter, which has created concerns home loan lending has gone too far in the other direction – that it is too difficult.
Asked about what impact that would have on monetary policy, Lowe said:
Asked about what impact that would have on monetary policy, Lowe said:
I don’t think it has direct implications to monetary policy at all. It would be complimentary to a monetary easing if what takes place. Removing the floor serviceability requirement that APRA has had will allow some people to borrow more.
I don’t think it has direct implications to monetary policy at all. It would be complementary to a monetary easing if that takes place. Removing the floor serviceability requirement that APRA has had will allow some people to borrow more.
But only relatively small share of the population borrow the maximum amount banks offer them and that is good.
But only a relatively small share of the population borrow the maximum amount banks offer them and that is good.
The data we have says between 10 and 15% of people borrow the maximum the bank will allow them but if APRA does remove the floor, some will borrow more and some will take advantage of that and that will help, but that is not a substitute for lower interest rates because they work through the exchange rate and affect the cash flow of every person who has a borrowing at the moment.
The data we have says between 10 and 15% of people borrow the maximum the bank will allow them but if APRA does remove the floor, some will borrow more and some will take advantage of that and that will help, but that is not a substitute for lower interest rates because they work through the exchange rate and affect the cash flow of every person who has a borrowing at the moment.
It is complimentary, but not a substitute.
It is complementary, but not a substitute.
Q: That was interesting. You said lower interest rates work through the exchange rate.
Q: That was interesting. You said lower interest rates work through the exchange rate.
Lowe: That is how it is supposed to work. That is how it works.
Lowe: That is how it is supposed to work. That is how it works.
Q: Just quickly on that same topic, we had an announcement from APRA, the Federal Government is making it easier for first home buyers to get a deposit even though they don’t have enough money, is that compatible with more responsible lending?
Q: Just quickly on that same topic, we had an announcement from APRA, the federal government is making it easier for first homebuyers to get a deposit even though they don’t have enough money, is that compatible with more responsible lending?
Lowe: It is up to the bank to implement that responsibly, isn’t it? I think it certainly can be. I don’t see it as being inconsistent but the banks still need to make their decisions and bank due regard to the responsible lending laws.
Lowe: It is up to the banks to implement that responsibly, isn’t it? I think it certainly can be. I don’t see it as being inconsistent but the banks still need to make their decisions and give due regard to the responsible lending laws.
“I think I can beat Scott Morrison. I absolutely think I can beat Scott Morrison. I wouldn’t be putting myself forward, if I didn’t,” Anthony Albanese says.
He says he is not running against Chris Bowen, he is running against Scott Morrison.
The markets are reporting the Australian dollar is beginning to fall in response to Philip Lowe’s RBA speech in Brisbane – it’s the rate cut signal which has caused that.
Here’s what he said on that:
At that[May] meeting, we discussed a scenario in which there was no further improvement in the labour market and the unemployment rate remained around the 5% mark.
It would remain low and a decrease in the cash rate would likely be appropriate.
A lower cash rate would help support employment and bring forward the time when inflation is consistent with the target.
Given this assessment, at our meeting in two weeks’ time, we will consider the case for lower interest rates.
That really didn’t take long:
pic.twitter.com/3vQMQ2Nmw7
Anthony Albanese is responding to Chris Bowen’s leadership bid:
I am a friend of Chris Bowen. We have been friends for a very long time. He has my respect. He puts his bid towards not just caucus members but every single member of the Australian Labor party.
The membership will have an opportunity to have a say. One of the good things about our process is that immediately after an election, it will be an opportunity for literally tens of thousands of members to express to myself and to Chris and the wider party why it is, in their view, that we came up short on Saturday.
I do know that in recent times it would appear that the Coalition have been able to claim an absolute majority of seats in the House of Representatives.
I congratulate Scott Morrison on that outcome. He certainly fought a tenacious campaign. That’s a reminder to the party, as we consider our future and our path to get into government, that we face a formidable challenge, that Scott Morrison is a formidable campaigner, as the fact he has been able to achieve this result shows.
That what we need to do is go through our process, have a discussion as a caucus and the organisational wing of the Labor party about how we can improve our position and be on the treasury benches when it comes to the next parliament after 2022. I’m determined, as I’m sure Chris is as well, to ensure that this will be a positive campaign, that this will be one where we outline our respective visions for the future of our party and it will be one in which we are able to put forward, in a constructive way, why we think we are the best people, respectively, to lead the Labor party.
I myself will be campaigning very much on my record and also a clear view that people have of me.
What you see is what you get. I’ve been in public life a long time.
One of the things we’ve been able to do in public life is to have the honour of being able to travel the length and breadth of this great nation and to engage with people in a practical way.
I am one of the four people who served in a cabinet ... throughout the Kevin Rudd-Julia Gillard governments.
In the end of the last period of government, I served as deputy prime minister and as ever infrastructure, transport, regional development and local government and minister for communications and the digital economy.
I think I’m up for a big job and there is no job that’s bigger than being a leader of the opposition.
There is no job that is tougher than being the leader of the opposition. I am tough. People know what my values are. I’m prepared to articulate them in a clear fashion and I like people. I like engaging people, whether it is at this great footy ground here at Henson Park, whether it be in boardrooms, whether it be in workplaces, whether it be at the local school, the local pub. I like people and I like engaging with people.
For those asking, here is what Scott Morrison said to the Today show on 3 April when asked about passing the tax cuts in time for the financial year:
Question: To get that tax cut though, they will have to vote for you in the election because it won’t be introduced into parliament this week, will it?
Morrison: Well it won’t make a difference whether it’s introduced this week or not. What Labor did last year –
Q: Well the election is looming, so?
Morrison: But the tax office – if the Labor party says they support our tax cuts, then the tax office can administer it on that basis.
The ATO can prepare for policy, but it can’t actually deliver it until it is law. To be clear, this does not mean that you will wait a whole year for the rebate.
But if the government chooses to put its whole tax plan through – which includes the high-income tax rebates scheduled beyond the forwards – it may be delayed, as most of the crossbench has already said it doesn’t like the high-income tax cuts.
Which means, to expedite it, if the government can’t talk them round, the government even has to break it up, or delay it further.
The ATO will process tax returns like normal until the legislation passes. It will then retrospectively amend people’s returns, if they are eligible, to include the rebate. That doesn’t mean it will take a full year. It just means it won’t be done by 30 June, and there is no guarantee on how long it will take.
The AEC has sent out its latest update:
The Senate
The first preferences on more than 10 million Senate ballot papers have already been captured and reflected in the tally room with the AEC currently in the process of counting the remaining pre-poll first preferences on ballot papers for the Senate.
Today the AEC’s Central Senate Scrutiny process has started with the task of capturing ALL of the more than 100 million preferences marked on every Senate ballot paper.
After the first preference has been counted, Senate ballot papers are being collated in eight separate central count centres across Australia and every Senate ballot paper will be scanned with preference data captured and then manually re-entered and cross-compared to the scanned data as part of an established process of verification.
The entire process is open to scrutineers and anticipated to take a number of weeks.
House of Representatives
The prioritisation of counting in close seats yesterday allowed a clearer picture of the potential final margin in the House of Representatives. Further counting in the close seats of Bass (Tas), Chisolm (Vic), Macquarie (NSW) and others is scheduled and will be reflected in the tally room today.
Postal vote counts are occurring in all 151 electoral divisions today in addition to those prioritised activities underway in close seats. The AEC has until Friday 28 June 2019 to return the writs for all House of Representatives and Senate contests.
Philip Lowe just brought into the tax rebate delay when asked “the Morrison government has announced it will delay the introduction of the first round of tax cuts for low- and middle-income earners. There was some suggestion it would be this financial year and now next year. Does the change the RBA’s outlook?”
Lowe:
The graph I showed on the forecast for household income growth incorporated the passing of the budget measures for the tax off sets.
You need to remember that the current offset in legislation, I think is $530 and the budget included another $580 for some people.
We had included that in our forecast that I showed you there on the basis that there was bipartisan support for that policy.
The prime minister’s comments this morning suggest that there wouldn’t be time for the parliament to reconfigure and pass that.
If that does not occur and there is no way to get the money to households, the household income growth will be 0.3% lower than I showed you in the graph and that is moving in the wrong direction. It would be good if there was a way for the households to get the tax offsets but the timing may mean it is very difficult and it may have to wait until next year.
Back to the RBA Philip Lowe lunch:
Question: What policies do you feel could be enacted by the government that would help you hit your unemployment and inflation targets?
Lowe: Well, I don’t want to give the government kind of advice, particularly, in the early days. But saying monetary policy can play a role.
I mean, an easing of monetary policy would probably lead to a depreciation of the currency or at least the expectation of an easing will lead to a depreciation, and it will also free up the cash flow of some households, those households with debt, and it is reasonable to assume some of that money would be spent.
An easing of monetary policy would help lower unemployment and get us closer to the inflation target.
But that is not the only policy option as a country to lower unemployment.
I have been a strong advocate of increased spending on infrastructure, because it adds to demand management but also makes all our lives better.
I would be advising all government, not just the federal government but state governments, to make sure they are investing in infrastructure that creates jobs and increases supply capacity.
There is a long list of structural policies that I talked about with Michael before.
We are not out of options and monetary policy is not our only option and it would be a mistake to rely totally on monetary policy here.
Chisholm looks all but being called for the Liberals.
Macquarie is not looking great. Bass will also go the Liberals’ way. That will give Scott Morrison a majority of 78 seats.
Which, at this stage, means Labor’s only real gain (Corangamite being notionally Labor after a re-distribution) is Gilmore.
Queensland was not the only problem, clearly.
And looking at the numbers, again, there has only been a slight shift in swing to the Coalition, nationally. It hasn’t been a huge movement. Even in Queensland, statewide, the LNP’s primary vote barely moved. But Labor lost out on primaries to the minor parties, who returned that vote, through preferences to the Coalition, and that played out across the country.
Labor made gains in its own safe seats and Coalition safe seats. But outside of that, people didn’t move, or they moved away from the major parties.
Call it the latte line, or the red rooster line or whatever it is you use as a touchstone. The result isn’t a disaster in that Labor can’t recover from - it is six seats to government from here. The question is why did minor parties prove so attractive in seats Labor thought it had a chance in, and how does it address it.
Josh Frydenberg has announced a picture opportunity of him getting on with the job, at Treasury at 2.30pm.
