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Tory leadership: Johnson, Hunt, Gove, Stewart, Javid through, as Raab eliminated – live news Tory leadership: Johnson, Hunt, Gove, Stewart, Javid through, as Raab eliminated – live news
(32 minutes later)
And here are the results with percentages, and changes from last Thursday. Gillian Keegan, the Chichester MP and a supporter of Rory Stewart, told reporters after the result was announced the momentum was with his campaign. She said:
They’re very close now. There’s a clear winner, and between the others there are not many votes
It’s very rewarding. Rory’s campaign is basically honest about where we are as a country. He’s basically telling people the uncomfortable truth in some cases, but he’s being honest. And who knew there was a market for honesty in politics. I’d always hoped that there was.
Mark Francois, the strongly Brexit-minded MP who supports Boris Johnson rather than Dominic Raab, said it was sad that Raab had been eliminated. He went on:
Whoever wins, and I hope it’s Boris, I hope they find a good place for Dom in their cabinet, because I think he deserves it.
This is from a spokesman for Jeremy Hunt’s campaign.
This is a solid result. It shows a steady step forward, which is exactly what we were expecting. It confirms that Jeremy is the best placed candidate to take on Boris. He’s the only candidate who can unite the country and the party by delivering Brexit.
A source in the Sajid Javid campaign says Javid will not be withdrawing from the contest before the next ballot, which is tomorrow. He put on 10 votes, the same as Jeremy Hunt, Michael Gove and Dominic Raab combined, the source says. “We are fighting tomorrow’s ballot.”
This is from a spokesperson for the Rory Stewart campaign.
This is a fantastic result for Rory - almost doubling his vote - with the biggest increase of all the candidates. This shows his momentum is continuing to build. He can now go all the way to the final two, giving the clear choice that members deserve.
Rory is running a positive campaign that is reaching across the country - and he invites MPs to join his team, Leave or Remain, frontbencher or backbencher.
The moment is here. Together we can get Brexit done, put honesty and trust at the heart of all we do, and make this country fairer, greener and more united.
Here are some thoughts on the result.
1) This is a messy, inconclusive result that suggests in the one contest that really counts, the fight for the second-place slot on the final ballot, there are potentially three candidates - Jeremy Hunt, Michael Gove and Rory Stewart.
2) Stewart is the candidate with the most momentum. That does not make him a prospective winner by any stretch but there is now a credible path by which he could make it on to the final ballot. He is unlikely to pick up any of the 30 votes that went to Dominic Raab and are now up for grabs because Raab was the most hardline Brexit candidate, and Stewart is at the other end of the spectrum. But if Sajid Javid’s supporters were to tuck in behind Stewart, his vote would rise to 70. In practice, votes never get redistributed that simply, but last week the fight for second place looked like a Hunt/Gove contest. Now Stewart is in contention.
3) Hunt’s lead over Gove has slipped from six votes to five. But Gove could plausibly expect to pick up more of the 30 Raab votes, because they were both leading figures of the Vote Leave campaign. It is very possible that Gove could overhaul Hunt.
4) Johnson is still the overall favourite, but it does feel as if his campaign is losing momentum. There were 50 votes available after the elimination of Matt Hancock, Andrea Leadsom, Mark Harper and Esther McVey. Johnson picked up just 12 of them despite being seen as the overwhelming favourite. He is still not performing as well as Theresa May did in 2016, when she got 50% of the vote in the first ballot. That said, surveys of the membership show he is much more popular with then than any of his rivals and it is still hard to see how he can be beaten. (See 12.23pm.)
5) The result means Raab won’t be taking part in the TV debate tonight, so we may see a repeat of what happened on Sunday night: all the other candidates ganging up on the one candidate (now Johnson) who has not publicly ruled out proroguing parliament to facilitate a no-deal Brexit. Given what Tory members seem to think about Brexit (see 11.05am), that may not do him any harm at all.
6) But it does mean Stewart will be in the debate - and he is a potential threat to Johnson because he has been the one candidate willing to denounce Johnson’s Brexit plan as bogus.
And here are the results with changes from last Thursday, and overall percentage.
Boris Johnson - 126 - up 12 - 40%Boris Johnson - 126 - up 12 - 40%
Jeremy Hunt – 46 - up 3 - 15%Jeremy Hunt – 46 - up 3 - 15%
Michael Gove – 41 - up 4 - 13%Michael Gove – 41 - up 4 - 13%
Rory Stewart – 37 - up 18 - 12%Rory Stewart – 37 - up 18 - 12%
Sajid Javid – 33 - up 10 - 11%Sajid Javid – 33 - up 10 - 11%
Dominic Raab – 30 - up 3 - 10%Dominic Raab – 30 - up 3 - 10%
Gillan confirms that five candidates will go through:Gillan confirms that five candidates will go through:
Boris JohnsonBoris Johnson
Jeremy HuntJeremy Hunt
Michael GoveMichael Gove
Rory StewartRory Stewart
Sajid JavidSajid Javid
And all five will be in the debate tonight.And all five will be in the debate tonight.
Cheryl Gillan, the joint acting chair of the 1922 Committee, is now reading out the results.Cheryl Gillan, the joint acting chair of the 1922 Committee, is now reading out the results.
All 313 Tory MPs voted, she says. There were no spoiled ballot papers.All 313 Tory MPs voted, she says. There were no spoiled ballot papers.
Boris Johnson - 126Boris Johnson - 126
Jeremy Hunt – 46Jeremy Hunt – 46
Michael Gove – 41Michael Gove – 41
Rory Stewart – 37Rory Stewart – 37
Sajid Javid – 33Sajid Javid – 33
Dominic Raab – 30Dominic Raab – 30
Room filling up for the result of the second ballot of the Tory leadership resultsRoom filling up for the result of the second ballot of the Tory leadership results
This is from my colleague Peter Walker, who is in committee room 14 where the result is due to announced at 6pm.This is from my colleague Peter Walker, who is in committee room 14 where the result is due to announced at 6pm.
We’re in the room - committee room 14 to be precise - for the result of second round of MPs’ voting for next Tory leader. Due at 6pm-ish. Johnson will be top again, of course, but who will come last and/or fail to reach the 33-vote threshold? Dicey for Raab, Javid & Stewart.We’re in the room - committee room 14 to be precise - for the result of second round of MPs’ voting for next Tory leader. Due at 6pm-ish. Johnson will be top again, of course, but who will come last and/or fail to reach the 33-vote threshold? Dicey for Raab, Javid & Stewart.
Stephen Crabb, the former cabinet minister who is backing Sajid Javid for the leadership, has just told BBC News the party should stop choosing Etonians as leader. He said:Stephen Crabb, the former cabinet minister who is backing Sajid Javid for the leadership, has just told BBC News the party should stop choosing Etonians as leader. He said:
I’ve got nothing against Etonians. The very best boss I ever had in working life was an Etonian, David Cameron, but I think there is an issue for our party if we keep going back to the same school over and over again for our senior politicians. There is something not quite right about that. We pride ourselves on being a meritocratic party ... We should genuinely look like that at the top of the party.I’ve got nothing against Etonians. The very best boss I ever had in working life was an Etonian, David Cameron, but I think there is an issue for our party if we keep going back to the same school over and over again for our senior politicians. There is something not quite right about that. We pride ourselves on being a meritocratic party ... We should genuinely look like that at the top of the party.
Of course two of the candidates still in the contest, Boris Johnson and Rory Stewart, are Etonians.Of course two of the candidates still in the contest, Boris Johnson and Rory Stewart, are Etonians.
This is from the Telegraph’s Christopher Hope.This is from the Telegraph’s Christopher Hope.
Reminder: senior figure in the Government (neutral and not aligned to any campaign) told me last week that @BorisJohnson could be "within touching distance" of 200 MPs by the end of this week #ToryLeadershipContestReminder: senior figure in the Government (neutral and not aligned to any campaign) told me last week that @BorisJohnson could be "within touching distance" of 200 MPs by the end of this week #ToryLeadershipContest
The SNP has described today’s YouGov poll showing a majority of Conservative party members would prefer to go ahead with Brexit even if it led to the break-up of the UK as a “disaster” for Ruth Davidson, the Scottish Conservative leader. (See 11.05am.) This is from Keith Brown, the SNP’s deputy leader (or depute leader, to use the Scots word the SNP prefers).
The Tory party has clearly gone off the deep end – with their Brexit obsession pushing the party further towards the extremes.
Tory members are so determined to deliver a damaging Brexit they are happy to watch our economy collapse and open the door of No 10 for Nigel Farage to take control of the UK.
And far from prioritising the union, it’s clear Scotland means so little to the members of the Conservative and Unionist party that two thirds are happy for Scotland to become independent if it secures Brexit.
And with this poll suggesting that almost a quarter of Tory members in Scotland would prefer to deliver Brexit for their membership down south even if it means an end to the union it’s becoming clearer that Ruth Davidson has little authority in her party in Scotland. This poll is an utter disaster for her and shows that her authority is seeping away at an incredible rate, leaving her increasingly isolated.
Here is the BBC’s Emily Maitlis showing the set being used tonight for the Tory leadership debate. There are five chairs on stage at the moment, but it is possible that the BBC might not need them all (if more than one candidate gets eliminated).
From the BBC’s Iain Watson
fwiw team Stewart -incl Stewart himself - appeared more upbeat than teams Javid/Raab - but maybe looks are deceptive. Result in just under an hour https://t.co/DmHBTsgwPw
The Sun’s Steve Hawkes has had a go at forecasting the result.
FWIW I reckon Boris gets around 135, Hunt hits 50, Gove thirdBelieve Raab makes the cutbut Sajid and Rory go - Rory could make it if Hunt falls short of 50
From the BBC’s Chris Mason
Bob Seely has switched from Michael Gove to Boris Johnson, reports @MarkerJParker
Nicky Morgan, the Tory MP who chairs the Commons Treasury committee, has warned that borrowing would have to rise under the spending plans proposed by some Tory leadership candidates. Echoing a warning delivered by the chancellor, Philip Hammond, yesterday, Morgan told TheCityUK annual conference that a new prime minister would have around £15bn of “fiscal headroom” set aside to help the economy in the event of a possible no-deal Brexit. She went on:
Were the UK to leave with a deal he [the prime minister] would of course release that headroom as additional spending on other priorities. In either scenario the money will be spent, and in either scenario the chancellor believes he will stay within his fiscal rule. Of course, we are seeing some candidates that say they want a no deal but they also want to spend the headroom. I’ll leave it to all of you to make your conclusions.
Any new spending commitments or tax cuts made by a new prime minister in the coming months that are paid for by using the so-called fiscal headroom that has been built up – while at the same time leaving open the possibility that these commitments would still take place were the UK to leave the EU without a deal – the candidate and the new chancellor may find such a course of action will not be compatible with the current fiscal rules.
The ballot has now closed. The papers are being counted, and the result is due at 6pm.
These are from Newsnight’s Nicholas Watt.
The Rory Stewart camp can (briefly) relax. Ken Clarke has just voted. Only 16 mins to go @RoryStewartUK
An arch brexiteer predicts: Boris Johnson vote up, Jeremy Hunt fine, Michael Gove OK, Dominic Raab on the cusp, Sajid Javid struggling, Rory Stewart a complete wild card
More from the committee room where Tory MPs are voting.
Asked how many votes he thinks he's got, Rory says: "32, 34 ... 31, 35?"
Asked if he would share how he voted, Philip Hammond replies: “Certainly not!”
May has just voted. Asked for any clues, she said: “As I said last week, none of your business”. Fair enough.
Speaking an hour before voting closed Rory Stewart admitted his campaign was on a knife-edge Asked if he was confident he replied “no!”, adding: “I’m right on the edge. I’m one or two votes off”.
Tellers from Team Boris bang their tables in the corridor as new convert @MattHancock arrives to vote. Hancock: ‘I didn’t get that last week...’#ToryLeadership
The Independent’s John Rentoul has been running a sweepstake on the results.
Sweepstake closes when ballot does at 5pm. 109 entries for the sweepstake so far. Median guesses: Johnson 131 Hunt 48Gove 40Stewart 35Raab 29 Javid 28