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General election: Labour and Tories both not 'being honest with electorate' over tax, says IFS – live news General election: Labour and Tories both not 'being honest with electorate' over tax, says IFS – live news
(30 minutes later)
Campaigns shift to climate crisis, though Boris Johnson has not confirmed attendance at televised environment debate tonightCampaigns shift to climate crisis, though Boris Johnson has not confirmed attendance at televised environment debate tonight
And here is a fuller summary of what Paul Johnson, the Institute for Fiscal Studies director, was saying about the Tory manifesto plans in his opening presentation.
At one point he said that the IFS would be saying a lot more about the Labour plans than the Tory plans. That was not the result of any bias, for or against, he explained. It was just a consequence of Labour having released much more detail about its plans, he said. The Tory plans are a lot more sketchy.
IFS on Conservative plans
It is “highly likely” the Tories would end up spending more than their manifesto implies, “and thus taxing and borrowing more”, the IFS says.
Public spending under the current government is much closer to what Labour promised in its 2017 manifesto than what the Tories promised in their own manifesto, the IFS says. Johnson says:
But Tory spending plans would not reverse austerity, the IFS says. Johnson says:
There is a risk of an effective no deal Brexit at the end of 2020 under the Tories, the IFS says. It says this would harm the economy and increase the deficit and debt.
The Tories have “failed to come up with any kind of plan or any kind of money for social care”, the IFS says.
Tory plans on welfare are “all but non-existent”, the IFS says.
It says the Tory plans for tax and spending will suit people who “think things are pretty much okay as they are”.
And here is Paul Johnson’s conclusion from his opening presentation at the IFS briefing.And here is Paul Johnson’s conclusion from his opening presentation at the IFS briefing.
Here is more from Paul Johnson’s opening presentation at the Institute for Fiscal Studies’ briefing.Here is more from Paul Johnson’s opening presentation at the Institute for Fiscal Studies’ briefing.
Here is my colleague Julia Kollewe’s story about the IFS analysis.Here is my colleague Julia Kollewe’s story about the IFS analysis.
In his opening remarks at the Institute for Fiscal Studies briefing Paul Johnson, the IFS, director, said neither the Tory nor the Labour manifesto plans were “properly credible”. He said (bold type in original IFS text):In his opening remarks at the Institute for Fiscal Studies briefing Paul Johnson, the IFS, director, said neither the Tory nor the Labour manifesto plans were “properly credible”. He said (bold type in original IFS text):
Labour has deselected its election candidate for Falkirk for allegedly putting antisemitic posts on Facebook, leaving the party unable to contest a seat it once held for decades.Labour has deselected its election candidate for Falkirk for allegedly putting antisemitic posts on Facebook, leaving the party unable to contest a seat it once held for decades.
Scottish Labour officials confirmed a report in the Falkirk Herald it had dropped Safia Ali as a candidate and suspended her party membership after past antisemitic posts on Facebook surfaced, in the latest controversy about candidate selections.Scottish Labour officials confirmed a report in the Falkirk Herald it had dropped Safia Ali as a candidate and suspended her party membership after past antisemitic posts on Facebook surfaced, in the latest controversy about candidate selections.
Michael Sharpe, Scottish Labour’s general secretary, told the Falkirk Herald:Michael Sharpe, Scottish Labour’s general secretary, told the Falkirk Herald:
Ali had stood as an independent candidate for the Carse, Kinnaird and Tryst ward in a local election to Falkirk council in 2017, getting the lowest number of first-preference votes. A party source said the comments were made on an older Facebook account she no longer used, and had not been picked up during candidate screening.Ali had stood as an independent candidate for the Carse, Kinnaird and Tryst ward in a local election to Falkirk council in 2017, getting the lowest number of first-preference votes. A party source said the comments were made on an older Facebook account she no longer used, and had not been picked up during candidate screening.
He said the case was going through the fast-track disciplinary processes introduced by Jeremy Corbyn. “Safia Ali is no longer the Labour party’s candidate for Falkirk,” a party spokesman said. “We have taken immediate action on this matter.”He said the case was going through the fast-track disciplinary processes introduced by Jeremy Corbyn. “Safia Ali is no longer the Labour party’s candidate for Falkirk,” a party spokesman said. “We have taken immediate action on this matter.”
Labour’s Falkirk constituency party was embroiled in a controversy over irregularities in member recruitment involving the Unite union when the union wanted Karie Murphy, an ally of Unite leader Len McCluskey and latterly a key aide to Corbyn, chosen as its candidate. The constituency party was put under special measures.Labour’s Falkirk constituency party was embroiled in a controversy over irregularities in member recruitment involving the Unite union when the union wanted Karie Murphy, an ally of Unite leader Len McCluskey and latterly a key aide to Corbyn, chosen as its candidate. The constituency party was put under special measures.
In 2015, it was amongst the swathe of Labour seats to topple in the Scottish National party landslide and was held by the SNP’s John McNally in 2017 with a 4,923 vote majority. The seat has since been low on Labour’s target list in Scotland.In 2015, it was amongst the swathe of Labour seats to topple in the Scottish National party landslide and was held by the SNP’s John McNally in 2017 with a 4,923 vote majority. The seat has since been low on Labour’s target list in Scotland.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies has just started its press conference to present its analysis of the main parties’ election manifestos.The Institute for Fiscal Studies has just started its press conference to present its analysis of the main parties’ election manifestos.
There is a live feed here.There is a live feed here.
Boris Johnson is facing growing criticism for refusing to take part in tonight’s climate crisis leaders’ debate on Channel 4.Boris Johnson is facing growing criticism for refusing to take part in tonight’s climate crisis leaders’ debate on Channel 4.
Nicolas Stern, author of a landmark climate report, said it was crucial that all political leaders showed up for the debate to give voters the chance to see how future governments would respond to the unfolding emergency.Nicolas Stern, author of a landmark climate report, said it was crucial that all political leaders showed up for the debate to give voters the chance to see how future governments would respond to the unfolding emergency.
Stern, a crossbench member of the House of Lords and Chair of the Grantham Research Institute at the LSE, said voters had a right to hear “a more detailed discussion between the leaders about how their governments would rise to challenges of acting with the urgency and scale demanded by these issues”.Stern, a crossbench member of the House of Lords and Chair of the Grantham Research Institute at the LSE, said voters had a right to hear “a more detailed discussion between the leaders about how their governments would rise to challenges of acting with the urgency and scale demanded by these issues”.
The hour-long debate will be held tonight on Channel 4 at 7pm. Jeremy Corbyn and the leaders of the SNP, the Liberal Democrats and the Green party have all agreed to take part.The hour-long debate will be held tonight on Channel 4 at 7pm. Jeremy Corbyn and the leaders of the SNP, the Liberal Democrats and the Green party have all agreed to take part.
The decision of Johnson not to take part comes amid increasingly alarming news on the scale of the emergency. On Wednesday scientists warned that the world may already have crossed a series of climate tipping points posing “an existential threat to civilisation”.The decision of Johnson not to take part comes amid increasingly alarming news on the scale of the emergency. On Wednesday scientists warned that the world may already have crossed a series of climate tipping points posing “an existential threat to civilisation”.
The Green party’s Caroline Lucas said:The Green party’s Caroline Lucas said:
Max Wakefield, director at Possible, which led the campaign for a climate debate, said: “It is not too late for the prime minister to do as the public wants and turn up to debate the climate and nature emergency.”Max Wakefield, director at Possible, which led the campaign for a climate debate, said: “It is not too late for the prime minister to do as the public wants and turn up to debate the climate and nature emergency.”
Here is my colleague Heather Stewart’s story about the new Labour strategy.Here is my colleague Heather Stewart’s story about the new Labour strategy.
Here are the campaign events in the diary for today.Here are the campaign events in the diary for today.
9.30am: The Institute for Fiscal Studies publishes an analysis of the main parties’ manifestos.9.30am: The Institute for Fiscal Studies publishes an analysis of the main parties’ manifestos.
10.30am: The DUP launches its election manifesto.10.30am: The DUP launches its election manifesto.
11am: Jeremy Corbyn gives a speech on the environment. He will announce plans to plant 2bn trees by 2040.11am: Jeremy Corbyn gives a speech on the environment. He will announce plans to plant 2bn trees by 2040.
11am: Nigel Farage, the Brexit party leader, campaigns in Hull.11am: Nigel Farage, the Brexit party leader, campaigns in Hull.
11.30am: Jo Swinson, the Lib Dem leader, gives a speech on “the problem with Boris Johnson”.11.30am: Jo Swinson, the Lib Dem leader, gives a speech on “the problem with Boris Johnson”.
12.30pm: Ben Wallace, the defence secretary, and Nia Griffith, his Labour shadow, take part in a defence hustings organised by the Royal United Services Institute.12.30pm: Ben Wallace, the defence secretary, and Nia Griffith, his Labour shadow, take part in a defence hustings organised by the Royal United Services Institute.
7pm: Jeremy Corbyn, Nicola Sturgeon, Jo Swinson, Siân Berry and Adam Price take part in a Channel 4 News leaders’ debate on the environment. Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage are planning to stay away.7pm: Jeremy Corbyn, Nicola Sturgeon, Jo Swinson, Siân Berry and Adam Price take part in a Channel 4 News leaders’ debate on the environment. Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage are planning to stay away.
Good morning. I’m Andrew Sparrow, taking over from Jedidajah OtteGood morning. I’m Andrew Sparrow, taking over from Jedidajah Otte
We have already mentioned Iain Watson’s report for the BBC on how Labour plans to revise its campaign to focus more on appealing to leave voters. His full report is here. And here is an extract.We have already mentioned Iain Watson’s report for the BBC on how Labour plans to revise its campaign to focus more on appealing to leave voters. His full report is here. And here is an extract.
And here is the Press Association version of the story.And here is the Press Association version of the story.
Quite how much actual change we will witness in Labour campaigning remains to be seen. After all, it is not as if shadow cabinet ministers who are strongly remain have been given a high profile anyway. (Keir Starmer has been almost as invisible as Jacob Rees-Mogg in the last few weeks.) And what is being described is not a new policy, but just a subtle shift in emphasis.Quite how much actual change we will witness in Labour campaigning remains to be seen. After all, it is not as if shadow cabinet ministers who are strongly remain have been given a high profile anyway. (Keir Starmer has been almost as invisible as Jacob Rees-Mogg in the last few weeks.) And what is being described is not a new policy, but just a subtle shift in emphasis.
Barry Gardiner, the shadow international trade secretary, was asked about the BBC story when he was on the Today programme. He claimed he did not know anything about a shift in strategy, but he did not contest the accuracy of the story in any way.Barry Gardiner, the shadow international trade secretary, was asked about the BBC story when he was on the Today programme. He claimed he did not know anything about a shift in strategy, but he did not contest the accuracy of the story in any way.
Both the Tories and Labour are likely to break their own spending rules, the Resolution Foundation said in a new report published today.Both the Tories and Labour are likely to break their own spending rules, the Resolution Foundation said in a new report published today.
RF is an independent thinktank focused on improving the living standards of those on low to middle incomes.RF is an independent thinktank focused on improving the living standards of those on low to middle incomes.
The Tories have promised to balance the budget within three years, Labour said it would do so within five years.The Tories have promised to balance the budget within three years, Labour said it would do so within five years.
The analysis suggests that the Tories are failing to account for “costs associated with their new investment plans” and “increased interest payments” and “additional depreciation cost of £2.3bn per year by 2023-24”. The Tory manifesto does also not include any funding for the pledged £6bn increase of the national insurance threshold to £12,500.The analysis suggests that the Tories are failing to account for “costs associated with their new investment plans” and “increased interest payments” and “additional depreciation cost of £2.3bn per year by 2023-24”. The Tory manifesto does also not include any funding for the pledged £6bn increase of the national insurance threshold to £12,500.
Labour’s manifesto on the other hand “failed to account for the additional £12bn annual cost from its commitment to compensate women born in the 1950s affected by the increase in the state pension age”, the report stated. Labour’s investment plans would mean its budget balancing headroom has already been more than used up, the report added.Labour’s manifesto on the other hand “failed to account for the additional £12bn annual cost from its commitment to compensate women born in the 1950s affected by the increase in the state pension age”, the report stated. Labour’s investment plans would mean its budget balancing headroom has already been more than used up, the report added.
Labour has called the report inaccurate.Labour has called the report inaccurate.