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General election: Labour and Tories both not 'being honest with electorate' over tax, says IFS – live news General election: Labour and Tories both not 'being honest with electorate' over tax, says IFS – live news
(32 minutes later)
Campaigns shift to climate crisis, though Boris Johnson has not confirmed attendance at televised environment debate tonightCampaigns shift to climate crisis, though Boris Johnson has not confirmed attendance at televised environment debate tonight
Q: The IFS says some of the Waspi women who will benefit from your £58bn compensation are quite well off. And getting rid of tuition fees will help the rich rather than the poor. Are you happy about your manifesto choices, when you could be spending more reversing benefit cuts.
Corbyn says the Waspi women were very badly treated. This is a specific cohort of people. Some of them have been driven into stress and deep debt by what happened. He says he has met them. They are living difficult lives. Some tried to go back to work, and were told to try apprenticeships. He says he thinks the treatment of them has been “disgraceful”. It is moral duty to pay them.
Corbyn says the question challenges the principle of universality. He says he wants education to be a right for everyone.
He will end universal credit, the two-child policy, the rape clause, and the wait to get benefits, he says.
Q: Your tree planting policy implies 190 trees being planted every minute. Is it realistic?
Corbyn says he is not talking about one person doing the planting. It is a massive commitment, he admits.
Q: Do you support the Southampton airport extension?
Corbyn says any airport expansions under Labour will have to meet tests of sustainability, air pollution, noise pollution and traffic.
He says rail connectivity has improved. He has looked at prices for going to Berlin. A train fare costs £200. But you can fly for £19. That’s not right, he says.
He says his green manifesto, a Plan for Nature, is a serious plan. But government cannot implement it on its own. It needs communities to help, he says.
And that’s it. The Q&A has finished.
Q: In Southampton the Labour council recently abandoned plans to charge the most polluting vehicles being driven in the city. Shouldn’t councils be adopting ambitious policies in this regard?
Corbyn says he wants to give councils more power to integrate their transport systems, particularly bus services.
Q: Won’t creating a new national park in Dorset lead to more visitors coming to an already popular, making traffic and pollution worse?
Corbyn says Dorset is an incredibly beautiful area. He mentions Chesil beach in particular. He says making the area a national park would mean more money being available, and better controls. It would be there for all people.
He says it was the postwar Labour government that introduced national parks. And Chris Smith introduced the right to roam. Everyone should be able to enjoy the countryside, he says.
Q: How confident are you of gaining seats in the south? You have come through Dorset, which is as blue as it gets.
Corbyn says his message is for the whole country. He is confident of winning. He wants to see two Labour MPs in Southampton. (At the moment one is Labour and one is Tory.)
Jeremy Corbyn is now taking questions.
Q: What is your message to traditional Labour supporters who may be considering backing the Tories over Brexit?
Q: We have been told you are shifting strategy, to focus more on leave voters. Does that mean your campaign is not worked so far?
Corbyn says environmental problems can only be addressed on an international basis.
He says his plans on Brexit are “absolutely clear”. He summarises them: negotiating a new Brexit deal within three months, and holding a referendum within six months. As PM, he would make sure the referendum was fairly held, he says. He says people have got to come together.
He says he will take this message to every part of the country.
And he says he has the same message everywhere. He does not say one thing in one place, and another thing in another.
This point seems designed to address this CCHQ attack line.
Q: Downing Street has a big garden. How many trees would you plant personally if you become PM?
Corbyn says he has a nice hornbeam tree in a pot in his back garden. It was given to him by climate crisis protesters. He suggests the No 10 garden would be a really good place to plant it.
Q: The IFS says your plans are not credible. If they don’t believe you, why should the public?
Corbyn says the Labour manifesto is fully costed. He says he is happy to have it scrutinised.
And here is his peroration.And here is his peroration.
Corbyn says he wants to protect habitats.Corbyn says he wants to protect habitats.
We mistakenly left out Plaid Cymru in the post about parties taking part in tonight’s election debate on Channel 4 tonight (see 9.28am). The post has now been changed. We mistakenly left out Plaid Cymru in the post about parties taking part in tonight’s climate crisis debate on Channel 4 tonight (see 9.28am). The post has now been changed.
Corbyn also confirms the plan to plant 2bn trees over the next 20 years.Corbyn also confirms the plan to plant 2bn trees over the next 20 years.
Corbyn is now confirming the plans for 10 new national parks.Corbyn is now confirming the plans for 10 new national parks.
Corbyn says government must tackle this crisis now.Corbyn says government must tackle this crisis now.
Corbyn is now talking about the climate crisis.Corbyn is now talking about the climate crisis.
Corbyn says the Tories have been caught “trying to cover things up”.Corbyn says the Tories have been caught “trying to cover things up”.
Yesterday Labour exposed “a secret plot” to sell out the NHS, he says.Yesterday Labour exposed “a secret plot” to sell out the NHS, he says.
He repeats the point he made in his speech yesterday about how he thinks the dossier released yesterday has “shredded” his claim that the NHS will not be on the table in UK-US trade talks.He repeats the point he made in his speech yesterday about how he thinks the dossier released yesterday has “shredded” his claim that the NHS will not be on the table in UK-US trade talks.
He says “this election is now a fight for the survival of our NHS as a public service.”He says “this election is now a fight for the survival of our NHS as a public service.”
(This is a claim that Labour tends to end up making at almost every election. Although it normally has some validity, when put like this it tends to be hyperbolic. Conservative governments have often been elected, and the NHS has survived as a public service.)(This is a claim that Labour tends to end up making at almost every election. Although it normally has some validity, when put like this it tends to be hyperbolic. Conservative governments have often been elected, and the NHS has survived as a public service.)
Jennie Formby, Labour’s general secretary, is introducing Jeremy Corbyn. She describes Southampton as her home town.
She introduces Corbyn as “the most decent, honest and inclusive man I know”.
Jeremy Corbyn is about to give a speech in Southampton on the environment.
There is a live feed at the top of the blog.
Around 212,000 more people moved to the UK long-term in the last year than left, according to the latest estimates. As the Press Association reports, the net migration figures for the year ending in June, which looked at people coming to the country with the intention to stay for 12 months or more, were published by the Office for National Statistics this morning. After peak levels of more than 200,000 in 2015 and early 2016, EU net migration has dropped and now stands at 48,000 in the same period. This is largely because of a fall in EU immigration, which remains at its lowest level since the year ending March 2013, PA Media reports.
In an interview on the Today programme this morning, focusing mostly on the dossier published yesterday revealing what has been said about health policy in the UK-US talks about a possible trade deal, Matt Hancock, the health secretary, said drug prices would not be on the table in talks on a UK-US trade deal. He said:
Asked why the leaked dossier does not say that the NHS and drugs prices would be exempt from the trade talks, Hancock replied:
This is what the Conservative manifesto (pdf) says about the proposed trade deal and the NHS.
Here is my colleague Kate Proctor, who has produced a fun video about whether or not holding a general election in December is a terrible idea.
And this is what Paul Johnson, the IFS director, said about Lib Dem manifesto plans in his opening presentation.
The Lib Dems would almost quintuple spending on universal free childcare, the IFS says, “creating a whole new leg of the universal welfare state”.
The IFS says the Lib Dem plan to put a penny on the main rates of income tax is “simple, progressive and would raise a secure level of revenue”.
The Lib Dems’ plans imply lower borrowing than under Labour or the Tories, the IFS says. Johnson says:
And this is what Paul Johnson, the IFS director, said about Labour’s plan in his opening presentation.
It is “highly likely” that, at least over the longer-term, Labour would need to raise taxes beyond the measures already announced, the IFS says. And it says Labour would “clearly increase taxes for many millions outside the top 5%”.
Even though Labour would increase the size of the state, it would still leave the UK’s public spending as a proportion of national income lower than Germany’s, the IFS says.
It is “far too simplistic” to assume that Labour’s plans would increase growth, the IFS says. That is because, even though Labour would boost investment and pursue a softer Brexit, the scale of its ambition creates uncertainty.
Labour’s plan to abolish in-work poverty within a parliament is “not achievable”, the IFS says. It says the party’s plans for working-age welfare spending are “relatively modest”, undoing “only just over half the cuts implemented since 2015 and less than a quarter of those put in place since 2010”.
But in the longer term Labour’s policies would probably “reduce labour market inequality and hence in-work poverty, possibly risking slower increases in average earnings”, the IFS says.
The IFS says Labour’s plan to completely replace universal credit is “unwise”. It says it would be “expensive, disruptive and unnecessary”.
Labour would double current spending on universal free childcare, the IFS says.
The IFS is very critical of the decision to spend £58bn compensation the Waspi (Women against state pension inequality) women. Johnson says:
The Labour plan to keep the state pension age at 66 is “an expensive promise”, the IFS says.
Labour’s corporation tax plan would increase corporate tax revenues to “their highest ever in the UK and to among the highest in the developed world”, the IFS says.
It says Labour’s plans to change the taxation of dividends and capital gains are “very welcome” and would raise revenue.
The Labour plan for inclusive ownership funds, taking 10% of big firms’s share and allocating them for the workers and for government, would probably lead to companies reducing pay to compensate.
And here is a fuller summary of what Paul Johnson, the Institute for Fiscal Studies director, was saying about the Tory manifesto plans in his opening presentation.
At one point he said that the IFS would be saying a lot more about the Labour plans than the Tory plans. That was not the result of any bias, for or against, he explained. It was just a consequence of Labour having released much more detail about its plans, he said. The Tory plans are a lot more sketchy.
IFS on Conservative plans
It is “highly likely” the Tories would end up spending more than their manifesto implies, “and thus taxing and borrowing more”, the IFS says.
Public spending under the current government is much closer to what Labour promised in its 2017 manifesto than what the Tories promised in their own manifesto, the IFS says. Johnson says:
But Tory spending plans would not reverse austerity, the IFS says. Johnson says:
There is a risk of an effective no deal Brexit at the end of 2020 under the Tories, the IFS says. It says this would harm the economy and increase the deficit and debt.
The Tories have “failed to come up with any kind of plan or any kind of money for social care”, the IFS says.
Tory plans on welfare are “all but non-existent”, the IFS says.
It says the Tory plans for tax and spending will suit people who “think things are pretty much okay as they are”.
And here is Paul Johnson’s conclusion from his opening presentation at the IFS briefing.