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General election: Labour and Tories both not 'being honest with electorate' over tax, says IFS – live news General election: Labour and Tories both not 'being honest with electorate' over tax, says IFS – live news
(32 minutes later)
Campaigns shift to climate crisis, though Boris Johnson has not confirmed attendance at televised environment debate tonightCampaigns shift to climate crisis, though Boris Johnson has not confirmed attendance at televised environment debate tonight
And here is his peroration.
Corbyn says he wants to protect habitats.
We mistakenly left out Plaid Cymru in the post about parties taking part in tonight’s election debate on Channel 4 tonight (see 9.28am). The post has now been changed.
Corbyn also confirms the plan to plant 2bn trees over the next 20 years.
Corbyn is now confirming the plans for 10 new national parks.
Corbyn says government must tackle this crisis now.
Corbyn is now talking about the climate crisis.
Corbyn says the Tories have been caught “trying to cover things up”.
Yesterday Labour exposed “a secret plot” to sell out the NHS, he says.
He repeats the point he made in his speech yesterday about how he thinks the dossier released yesterday has “shredded” his claim that the NHS will not be on the table in UK-US trade talks.
He says “this election is now a fight for the survival of our NHS as a public service.”
(This is a claim that Labour tends to end up making at almost every election. Although it normally has some validity, when put like this it tends to be hyperbolic. Conservative governments have often been elected, and the NHS has survived as a public service.)
Jennie Formby, Labour’s general secretary, is introducing Jeremy Corbyn. She describes Southampton as her home town.
She introduces Corbyn as “the most decent, honest and inclusive man I know”.
Jeremy Corbyn is about to give a speech in Southampton on the environment.
There is a live feed at the top of the blog.
Around 212,000 more people moved to the UK long-term in the last year than left, according to the latest estimates. As the Press Association reports, the net migration figures for the year ending in June, which looked at people coming to the country with the intention to stay for 12 months or more, were published by the Office for National Statistics this morning. After peak levels of more than 200,000 in 2015 and early 2016, EU net migration has dropped and now stands at 48,000 in the same period. This is largely because of a fall in EU immigration, which remains at its lowest level since the year ending March 2013, PA Media reports.
In an interview on the Today programme this morning, focusing mostly on the dossier published yesterday revealing what has been said about health policy in the UK-US talks about a possible trade deal, Matt Hancock, the health secretary, said drug prices would not be on the table in talks on a UK-US trade deal. He said:In an interview on the Today programme this morning, focusing mostly on the dossier published yesterday revealing what has been said about health policy in the UK-US talks about a possible trade deal, Matt Hancock, the health secretary, said drug prices would not be on the table in talks on a UK-US trade deal. He said:
Asked why the leaked dossier does not say that the NHS and drugs prices would be exempt from the trade talks, Hancock replied:Asked why the leaked dossier does not say that the NHS and drugs prices would be exempt from the trade talks, Hancock replied:
This is what the Conservative manifesto (pdf) says about the proposed trade deal and the NHS.This is what the Conservative manifesto (pdf) says about the proposed trade deal and the NHS.
Here is my colleague Kate Proctor, who has produced a fun video about whether or not holding a general election in December is a terrible idea.Here is my colleague Kate Proctor, who has produced a fun video about whether or not holding a general election in December is a terrible idea.
And this is what Paul Johnson, the IFS director, said about Lib Dem manifesto plans in his opening presentation.And this is what Paul Johnson, the IFS director, said about Lib Dem manifesto plans in his opening presentation.
The Lib Dems would almost quintuple spending on universal free childcare, the IFS says, “creating a whole new leg of the universal welfare state”.The Lib Dems would almost quintuple spending on universal free childcare, the IFS says, “creating a whole new leg of the universal welfare state”.
The IFS says the Lib Dem plan to put a penny on the main rates of income tax is “simple, progressive and would raise a secure level of revenue”.The IFS says the Lib Dem plan to put a penny on the main rates of income tax is “simple, progressive and would raise a secure level of revenue”.
The Lib Dems’ plans imply lower borrowing than under Labour or the Tories, the IFS says. Johnson says:The Lib Dems’ plans imply lower borrowing than under Labour or the Tories, the IFS says. Johnson says:
And this is what Paul Johnson, the IFS director, said about Labour’s plan in his opening presentation.And this is what Paul Johnson, the IFS director, said about Labour’s plan in his opening presentation.
It is “highly likely” that, at least over the longer-term, Labour would need to raise taxes beyond the measures already announced, the IFS says. And it says Labour would “clearly increase taxes for many millions outside the top 5%”.It is “highly likely” that, at least over the longer-term, Labour would need to raise taxes beyond the measures already announced, the IFS says. And it says Labour would “clearly increase taxes for many millions outside the top 5%”.
Even though Labour would increase the size of the state, it would still leave the UK’s public spending as a proportion of national income lower than Germany’s, the IFS says.Even though Labour would increase the size of the state, it would still leave the UK’s public spending as a proportion of national income lower than Germany’s, the IFS says.
It is “far too simplistic” to assume that Labour’s plans would increase growth, the IFS says. That is because, even though Labour would boost investment and pursue a softer Brexit, the scale of its ambition creates uncertainty.It is “far too simplistic” to assume that Labour’s plans would increase growth, the IFS says. That is because, even though Labour would boost investment and pursue a softer Brexit, the scale of its ambition creates uncertainty.
Labour’s plan to abolish in-work poverty within a parliament is “not achievable”, the IFS says. It says the party’s plans for working-age welfare spending are “relatively modest”, undoing “only just over half the cuts implemented since 2015 and less than a quarter of those put in place since 2010”.Labour’s plan to abolish in-work poverty within a parliament is “not achievable”, the IFS says. It says the party’s plans for working-age welfare spending are “relatively modest”, undoing “only just over half the cuts implemented since 2015 and less than a quarter of those put in place since 2010”.
But in the longer term Labour’s policies would probably “reduce labour market inequality and hence in-work poverty, possibly risking slower increases in average earnings”, the IFS says.But in the longer term Labour’s policies would probably “reduce labour market inequality and hence in-work poverty, possibly risking slower increases in average earnings”, the IFS says.
The IFS says Labour’s plan to completely replace universal credit is “unwise”. It says it would be “expensive, disruptive and unnecessary”.The IFS says Labour’s plan to completely replace universal credit is “unwise”. It says it would be “expensive, disruptive and unnecessary”.
Labour would double current spending on universal free childcare, the IFS says.Labour would double current spending on universal free childcare, the IFS says.
The IFS is very critical of the decision to spend £58bn compensation the Waspi (Women against state pension inequality) women. Johnson says:The IFS is very critical of the decision to spend £58bn compensation the Waspi (Women against state pension inequality) women. Johnson says:
The Labour plan to keep the state pension age at 66 is “an expensive promise”, the IFS says.The Labour plan to keep the state pension age at 66 is “an expensive promise”, the IFS says.
Labour’s corporation tax plan would increase corporate tax revenues to “their highest ever in the UK and to among the highest in the developed world”, the IFS says.Labour’s corporation tax plan would increase corporate tax revenues to “their highest ever in the UK and to among the highest in the developed world”, the IFS says.
It says Labour’s plans to change the taxation of dividends and capital gains are “very welcome” and would raise revenue.It says Labour’s plans to change the taxation of dividends and capital gains are “very welcome” and would raise revenue.
The Labour plan for inclusive ownership funds, taking 10% of big firms’s share and allocating them for the workers and for government, would probably lead to companies reducing pay to compensate.The Labour plan for inclusive ownership funds, taking 10% of big firms’s share and allocating them for the workers and for government, would probably lead to companies reducing pay to compensate.
And here is a fuller summary of what Paul Johnson, the Institute for Fiscal Studies director, was saying about the Tory manifesto plans in his opening presentation.And here is a fuller summary of what Paul Johnson, the Institute for Fiscal Studies director, was saying about the Tory manifesto plans in his opening presentation.
At one point he said that the IFS would be saying a lot more about the Labour plans than the Tory plans. That was not the result of any bias, for or against, he explained. It was just a consequence of Labour having released much more detail about its plans, he said. The Tory plans are a lot more sketchy.At one point he said that the IFS would be saying a lot more about the Labour plans than the Tory plans. That was not the result of any bias, for or against, he explained. It was just a consequence of Labour having released much more detail about its plans, he said. The Tory plans are a lot more sketchy.
IFS on Conservative plansIFS on Conservative plans
It is “highly likely” the Tories would end up spending more than their manifesto implies, “and thus taxing and borrowing more”, the IFS says.It is “highly likely” the Tories would end up spending more than their manifesto implies, “and thus taxing and borrowing more”, the IFS says.
Public spending under the current government is much closer to what Labour promised in its 2017 manifesto than what the Tories promised in their own manifesto, the IFS says. Johnson says:Public spending under the current government is much closer to what Labour promised in its 2017 manifesto than what the Tories promised in their own manifesto, the IFS says. Johnson says:
But Tory spending plans would not reverse austerity, the IFS says. Johnson says:But Tory spending plans would not reverse austerity, the IFS says. Johnson says:
There is a risk of an effective no deal Brexit at the end of 2020 under the Tories, the IFS says. It says this would harm the economy and increase the deficit and debt.There is a risk of an effective no deal Brexit at the end of 2020 under the Tories, the IFS says. It says this would harm the economy and increase the deficit and debt.
The Tories have “failed to come up with any kind of plan or any kind of money for social care”, the IFS says.The Tories have “failed to come up with any kind of plan or any kind of money for social care”, the IFS says.
Tory plans on welfare are “all but non-existent”, the IFS says.Tory plans on welfare are “all but non-existent”, the IFS says.
It says the Tory plans for tax and spending will suit people who “think things are pretty much okay as they are”.It says the Tory plans for tax and spending will suit people who “think things are pretty much okay as they are”.
And here is Paul Johnson’s conclusion from his opening presentation at the IFS briefing.And here is Paul Johnson’s conclusion from his opening presentation at the IFS briefing.
Here is more from Paul Johnson’s opening presentation at the Institute for Fiscal Studies’ briefing.
Here is my colleague Julia Kollewe’s story about the IFS analysis.
In his opening remarks at the Institute for Fiscal Studies briefing Paul Johnson, the IFS, director, said neither the Tory nor the Labour manifesto plans were “properly credible”. He said (bold type in original IFS text):
Labour has deselected its election candidate for Falkirk for allegedly putting antisemitic posts on Facebook, leaving the party unable to contest a seat it once held for decades.
Scottish Labour officials confirmed a report in the Falkirk Herald it had dropped Safia Ali as a candidate and suspended her party membership after past antisemitic posts on Facebook surfaced, in the latest controversy about candidate selections.
Michael Sharpe, Scottish Labour’s general secretary, told the Falkirk Herald:
Ali had stood as an independent candidate for the Carse, Kinnaird and Tryst ward in a local election to Falkirk council in 2017, getting the lowest number of first-preference votes. A party source said the comments were made on an older Facebook account she no longer used, and had not been picked up during candidate screening.
He said the case was going through the fast-track disciplinary processes introduced by Jeremy Corbyn. “Safia Ali is no longer the Labour party’s candidate for Falkirk,” a party spokesman said. “We have taken immediate action on this matter.”
Labour’s Falkirk constituency party was embroiled in a controversy over irregularities in member recruitment involving the Unite union when the union wanted Karie Murphy, an ally of Unite leader Len McCluskey and latterly a key aide to Corbyn, chosen as its candidate. The constituency party was put under special measures.
In 2015, it was amongst the swathe of Labour seats to topple in the Scottish National party landslide and was held by the SNP’s John McNally in 2017 with a 4,923 vote majority. The seat has since been low on Labour’s target list in Scotland.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies has just started its press conference to present its analysis of the main parties’ election manifestos.
There is a live feed here.
Boris Johnson is facing growing criticism for refusing to take part in tonight’s climate crisis leaders’ debate on Channel 4.
Nicolas Stern, author of a landmark climate report, said it was crucial that all political leaders showed up for the debate to give voters the chance to see how future governments would respond to the unfolding emergency.
Stern, a crossbench member of the House of Lords and Chair of the Grantham Research Institute at the LSE, said voters had a right to hear “a more detailed discussion between the leaders about how their governments would rise to challenges of acting with the urgency and scale demanded by these issues”.
The hour-long debate will be held tonight on Channel 4 at 7pm. Jeremy Corbyn and the leaders of the SNP, the Liberal Democrats and the Green party have all agreed to take part.
The decision of Johnson not to take part comes amid increasingly alarming news on the scale of the emergency. On Wednesday scientists warned that the world may already have crossed a series of climate tipping points posing “an existential threat to civilisation”.
The Green party’s Caroline Lucas said:
Max Wakefield, director at Possible, which led the campaign for a climate debate, said: “It is not too late for the prime minister to do as the public wants and turn up to debate the climate and nature emergency.”
Here is my colleague Heather Stewart’s story about the new Labour strategy.
Here are the campaign events in the diary for today.
9.30am: The Institute for Fiscal Studies publishes an analysis of the main parties’ manifestos.
10.30am: The DUP launches its election manifesto.
11am: Jeremy Corbyn gives a speech on the environment. He will announce plans to plant 2bn trees by 2040.
11am: Nigel Farage, the Brexit party leader, campaigns in Hull.
11.30am: Jo Swinson, the Lib Dem leader, gives a speech on “the problem with Boris Johnson”.
12.30pm: Ben Wallace, the defence secretary, and Nia Griffith, his Labour shadow, take part in a defence hustings organised by the Royal United Services Institute.
7pm: Jeremy Corbyn, Nicola Sturgeon, Jo Swinson, Siân Berry and Adam Price take part in a Channel 4 News leaders’ debate on the environment. Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage are planning to stay away.
Good morning. I’m Andrew Sparrow, taking over from Jedidajah Otte
We have already mentioned Iain Watson’s report for the BBC on how Labour plans to revise its campaign to focus more on appealing to leave voters. His full report is here. And here is an extract.
And here is the Press Association version of the story.
Quite how much actual change we will witness in Labour campaigning remains to be seen. After all, it is not as if shadow cabinet ministers who are strongly remain have been given a high profile anyway. (Keir Starmer has been almost as invisible as Jacob Rees-Mogg in the last few weeks.) And what is being described is not a new policy, but just a subtle shift in emphasis.
Barry Gardiner, the shadow international trade secretary, was asked about the BBC story when he was on the Today programme. He claimed he did not know anything about a shift in strategy, but he did not contest the accuracy of the story in any way.
Both the Tories and Labour are likely to break their own spending rules, the Resolution Foundation said in a new report published today.
RF is an independent thinktank focused on improving the living standards of those on low to middle incomes.
The Tories have promised to balance the budget within three years, Labour said it would do so within five years.
The analysis suggests that the Tories are failing to account for “costs associated with their new investment plans” and “increased interest payments” and “additional depreciation cost of £2.3bn per year by 2023-24”. The Tory manifesto does also not include any funding for the pledged £6bn increase of the national insurance threshold to £12,500.
Labour’s manifesto on the other hand “failed to account for the additional £12bn annual cost from its commitment to compensate women born in the 1950s affected by the increase in the state pension age”, the report stated. Labour’s investment plans would mean its budget balancing headroom has already been more than used up, the report added.
Labour has called the report inaccurate.