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Coronavirus: How is the UK planning for an outbreak? Coronavirus: How is the UK planning for an outbreak?
(about 20 hours later)
Measures to delay the spread of coronavirus in the UK are being considered by health officials. A major coronavirus epidemic is expected in the UK. A worst case scenario could see 80% of the population infected.
The government decided after an emergency Cobra meeting on Monday not to introduce "social distancing" measures at the moment. So, what steps are being taken and is the NHS well prepared?
So what could happen and is the NHS well prepared?
Could schools close and public gatherings be banned?Could schools close and public gatherings be banned?
The government has powers it can use to protect people from infection. What measures will be used, and when, are still to be decided, but they could include: The government has a range of powers to protect people from infection:
A public information campaign has been launched to help people protect themselves. The main focus has been on regular and thorough hand washing. What steps have been taken so far?
When could these powers be used? There are four main stages in the government's action plan: contain, delay, research and mitigate. The focus so far has been on contain and delay.
Exactly what steps are taken will depend upon the severity of the outbreak. The contain stage has involved tracing people who had contact with those diagnosed with coronavirus and getting them to self-isolate in case symptoms develop.
The spread of coronavirus is being monitored by health officials. And the government's emergency Cobra committee - made up of ministers, civil servants and officials - is co-ordinating the response. It says the UK is still in the "containment" stage of its response. From the end of March health experts are likely to start advising people with mild cold and flu-like symptoms to assume they may have coronavirus and self-isolate..
Drastic steps such as closing schools would have major social and economic consequences. At the moment, winter bugs are still circulating, so any illness is more likely to be those.
Because of this, ministers have stressed the need not to over-react. What could the next steps be?
It is also virtually impossible to stop all social contact. There is likely to be specific advice aimed at the elderly and those with existing health conditions, who are most at risk of becoming severely ill.
As such, measures designed to stop people mixing may be most likely when there are local outbreaks. Others may be asked to work from home, stagger their commute, or cut back on unnecessary socialising.
This could be in an attempt to slow the spread of the virus and limit the number of cases ahead of an expected peak. The government's emergency Cobra committee - made up of ministers, civil servants and officials - is co-ordinating the response.
Instead, the government is likely to go for a phased, gradual approach. Steps such as closing schools would have major social and economic consequences. Because of this, ministers have stressed the need not to over-react.
Asking people to think about the steps they can take themselves, from working at home, staggering their commute in and cutting back on unnecessary socialising, is likely to be suggested soon. There are also doubts about whether such measures have much impact. For example, if you stop people attending football matches they may just meet in pubs, where the risk of infection would be similar.
The most drastic measures therefore look likely to be reserved for just before the peak, which could be two months away.
Is the NHS ready for coronavirus?Is the NHS ready for coronavirus?
Up to a fifth of the UK workforce could be off sick during the peak weeks of a major outbreak, the government says.Up to a fifth of the UK workforce could be off sick during the peak weeks of a major outbreak, the government says.
It believes there could be an increase in deaths, especially among elderly people and those with pre-existing conditions such as heart or lung problems and diabetes.It believes there could be an increase in deaths, especially among elderly people and those with pre-existing conditions such as heart or lung problems and diabetes.
The NHS has detailed plans to cope with outbreaks of disease and surges in demand.The NHS has detailed plans to cope with outbreaks of disease and surges in demand.
There are 30 hospitals on stand-by to take patients - although most of the UK cases so far have been taken to one of five specialist hospitals in England. There are 30 hospitals on stand-by to take patients, but the rest of the NHS has been put on an emergency footing.
But the rest of the NHS has been put on an emergency footing. Hospitals have been asked to draw up plans to segregate coronavirus patients and supply staff with protective masks and suits.
Hospitals have been asked to draw up plans to segregate coronavirus patients from others and supply staff with protective masks and suits. People who think they may be affected by coronavirus need to call the NHS 111 phone service for further advice. They should not go to their GP, or A&E.
Every hospital has been told to set up isolation pods in case patients arrive with the virus. These are not to treat patients, but to ensure they do not mix with other patients and staff when they arrive. In Scotland, check NHS inform, then ring your GP in office hours, or 111 out-of-hours. In parts of Wales where 111 is not available, call NHS Direct on 0845 46 47. In Northern Ireland, call your GP.
Patients are being advised to contact NHS 111 in England and self-isolate - the rest of the UK has its own arrangements. People who are worried they may have coronavirus should not go to A&E, or their GP.
How will the NHS treat seriously ill patients?How will the NHS treat seriously ill patients?
Currently there is no treatment or cure, so hospitals are trying to relieve the symptoms.Currently there is no treatment or cure, so hospitals are trying to relieve the symptoms.
Specialist equipment called ECMO - which helps with breathing - is available at a small number of units for the most severely ill patients if their lungs fail.Specialist equipment called ECMO - which helps with breathing - is available at a small number of units for the most severely ill patients if their lungs fail.
In the worst-case scenario of widespread transmission in the UK - an epidemic - the 30 hospitals could start cancelling routine treatments to prioritise coronavirus patients. In the worst-case scenario of widespread transmission, hospitals could start cancelling routine treatments to prioritise coronavirus patients.
Assessments are being made about which patients can be advised to stay at home and isolate themselves to allow hospitals to focus on the most severely ill. It is estimated one in 20 may become critically ill, which could overwhelm the NHS.
The illness caused by the virus for many seems to be mild and passes. There are just over 4,000 intensive care beds, which can be increased by just a few thousand.
But an estimated one in 20 may become critically ill.
It means during the peak the NHS could be overwhelmed. There are just over 4,000 intensive care beds. This can be increased, but only by a few thousand.
Doctors warn some difficult decisions may need to be made about which patients get treatment.Doctors warn some difficult decisions may need to be made about which patients get treatment.
Can coronavirus be contained? What is the UK hoping to achieve?
Public Health England officials have said widespread transmission of coronavirus in the UK is "highly likely". They believe some people infected have no link to overseas cases. The ultimate goal is to delay the peak until the summer months, when there will be less pressure on the NHS.
Efforts are now on delaying the spread of the disease, the aims of which include: There may also be progress developing a treatment. Several antiviral therapies, including those used to treat malaria and HIV, are being tested.
Work to contain the disease is also continuing. That involves tracing people who have had close contact with infected people and getting them to self-isolate. Pushing cases towards the summer could also reduce the rate of transmission. People will be outdoors more, making it more difficult for the virus to be passed on.
The expectation is that the number of infections at that time could be about 20%, perhaps even less.
What questions do you have about the UK's coronavirus plans?What questions do you have about the UK's coronavirus plans?
In some cases your question will be published, displaying your name, age and location as you provide it, unless you state otherwise. Your contact details will never be published. Please ensure you have read our terms & conditions and privacy policy.In some cases your question will be published, displaying your name, age and location as you provide it, unless you state otherwise. Your contact details will never be published. Please ensure you have read our terms & conditions and privacy policy.
Use this form to ask your question:Use this form to ask your question: