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Coronavirus: What next in the UK coronavirus fight? Coronavirus: What next in the UK coronavirus fight?
(1 day later)
Coronavirus is spreading in the UK and the government is seeking ways to minimise its spread.Coronavirus is spreading in the UK and the government is seeking ways to minimise its spread.
A worst-case scenario, if nothing is done, could see 80% of people infected. Without drastic measures - which could be in place for weeks, or even months - it is feared that more than 250,000 people could die.
So what is the UK doing about coronavirus? What steps should I take?
The government's strategy has been changing quickly over recent weeks. All members of the public should reduce the time they spend with others:
It started off trying to contain the outbreaks by isolating people who tested positive and asking anyone who had close contact with them to self-isolate too. Everyone should continue to regularly wash their hands and avoid contacting the NHS unless it's essential.
In early March, ministers accepted that was no longer viable so instead introduced policies to delay and reduce the peak. The strongest warnings are in place for those who are ill and the people close to them:
The idea was that by pushing the peak back to the summer it would allow the NHS to cope. How has the UK's strategy changed?
But new modelling released by Imperial College London then prompted a change in approach. The government's thinking has changed quickly.
It warned the policy of a managed spread could still lead to more than 250,000 deaths with hospital intensive care units getting overwhelmed. It started off trying to contain coronavirus by isolating people who tested positive and asking anyone who had close contact with them to self-isolate too.
Ministers are now seeking to suppress the spread completely - hoping in the process to keep deaths below 20,000. Ministers then introduced policies to delay and reduce the peak, when the most cases are expected.
What steps are being taken? The idea was that by pushing it back to the summer it would allow the NHS to cope.
The government is taking arguably the most drastic steps in peacetime. But modelling from Imperial College London prompted a change in approach.
The public is essentially being asked to reduce social contact, with the strongest warnings for the most vulnerable. It warned the policy of a managed spread could lead to more than 250,000 deaths, with hospital intensive care units getting overwhelmed.
Those who show symptoms, and those they live with, are being asked not to leave their homes. Ministers are now seeking to suppress the spread completely.
The government says its previous advice also remains, which is that everyone should regularly wash their hands and avoid contacting the NHS unless it's essential. They hope this will keep deaths below 20,000.
What about schools? How long could the restrictions be in place?
After trying to keep schools open, the decision was taken to close them from 19 March.
A number of schools will remain open for children of "key workers", such as NHS staff and the police.
All exams in May and June have been cancelled.
The reticence to close schools was based on the fact children are the age group least likely to get severe symptoms - only 0.2% of cases end up in hospital.
What is more, there were doubts as to whether it would help reduce cases.
Early modelling suggested while closing schools could suppress the peak - a 15% reduction was put forward - some of the gain would be offset.
Children will still mix outside of school, parents, including health workers, may have to take time off work or grandparents may have to look after them, one of the vulnerable groups they are trying to protect.
In the end the decision to shut schools has undoubtedly come down two factors.
Firstly, it might just do enough to ensure the NHS is not overwhelmed - as suggested by the new modelling by Imperial College London published on Monday that prompted the government to move towards outright suppression.
Secondly, practicalities - increasing numbers of teachers and children are having to isolate at home and classes and exams would be seriously disrupted in the coming months regardless of what was done.
What is going to happen next?
We are in uncharted territory - so it is impossible to tell.We are in uncharted territory - so it is impossible to tell.
The problem with trying to suppress the virus is that as soon as you lift those measures the fear is it rebounds with a vengeance. However, Prime Minister Boris Johnson has suggested that "we can turn the tide within the next 12 weeks".
One option put forward by experts advising the government is to go through a cycle of lifting and reapplying the brakes, using demand on intensive care as a guide. But the problem with trying to suppress the virus is that as soon as you lift those measures the fear is it could quickly return.
There will be close attention paid to China which is now looking at how it lifts restrictions. One option from experts advising the government is to go through a cycle of lifting and reapplying restrictions, using demand on intensive care as a guide.
The hope is that you break the spread of transmission and the virus goes away. There will be close attention paid to China, which is now looking at how it lifts restrictions.
But that is not considered realistic. It is not realistic to think that if you temporarily break the spread of coronavirus it will go away.
Then you have to consider the social and economic factors at play.Then you have to consider the social and economic factors at play.
Businesses are going to struggle and people are going to lose their jobs.Businesses are going to struggle and people are going to lose their jobs.
And how long are the public going to put up with being told they cannot go out, need to work from home and can no longer watch sport or go to festivals?And how long are the public going to put up with being told they cannot go out, need to work from home and can no longer watch sport or go to festivals?
How do you balance stopping society against saving lives? It leaves the government with some very difficult decisions to take. It leaves the government with some very difficult decisions to take.
What about the NHS? Can it cope?What about the NHS? Can it cope?
The whole of the NHS has been put on an emergency footing. From mid-April all routine operations, such as knee and hip replacements, are being cancelled for three months.The whole of the NHS has been put on an emergency footing. From mid-April all routine operations, such as knee and hip replacements, are being cancelled for three months.
Hospitals have plans to keep coronavirus patients separate and supply staff with protective masks and suits.Hospitals have plans to keep coronavirus patients separate and supply staff with protective masks and suits.
All hospital patients with flu-like symptoms are being tested.All hospital patients with flu-like symptoms are being tested.
Patients with mild symptoms - a high temperature or new and persistent cough - are being asked to self-isolate at home. Community teams will keep an eye on them if need be.Patients with mild symptoms - a high temperature or new and persistent cough - are being asked to self-isolate at home. Community teams will keep an eye on them if need be.
But people are being advised not to ring NHS 111 to report their symptoms unless they are worried.But people are being advised not to ring NHS 111 to report their symptoms unless they are worried.
How will the NHS treat seriously ill patients?How will the NHS treat seriously ill patients?
Currently there is no treatment or cure, so hospitals are trying to relieve the symptoms.Currently there is no treatment or cure, so hospitals are trying to relieve the symptoms.
Specialist ECMO breathing equipment is at five units for patients whose lungs fail.Specialist ECMO breathing equipment is at five units for patients whose lungs fail.
There are between 4,000 and 5,000 intensive care beds.There are between 4,000 and 5,000 intensive care beds.
But NHS officials said they can effectively increase that to between 11,000 and 12,000 by using ventilators reserved for planned surgery and those available in the private sector, Ministry of Defence, new ones being made and old stocks that are no longer used.But NHS officials said they can effectively increase that to between 11,000 and 12,000 by using ventilators reserved for planned surgery and those available in the private sector, Ministry of Defence, new ones being made and old stocks that are no longer used.
Ministers are also working with private companies to ramp up production.Ministers are also working with private companies to ramp up production.
A third of patients who need hospital care require intensive care support, evidence from China and Italy suggests.A third of patients who need hospital care require intensive care support, evidence from China and Italy suggests.
Doctors warn that some difficult decisions may need to be made about which patients get treatment.Doctors warn that some difficult decisions may need to be made about which patients get treatment.
What questions do you have about the UK's coronavirus plans?What questions do you have about the UK's coronavirus plans?
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Use this form to ask your question:Use this form to ask your question: