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Coronavirus: How is the UK planning for an outbreak? Coronavirus: How is the UK planning for an outbreak?
(1 day later)
Coronavirus has been seen in more than 30 countries, with signs it is getting a foothold in Europe and new cases being reported in the UK. But what is the government planning to do if there is a major outbreak in the UK and how prepared is the NHS? Coronavirus has been seen in more than 50 countries, including the UK.
The hope is it can still be contained What are the government's plans for a major outbreak and how prepared is the NHS?
The government has said the UK is prepared for all eventualities. Can coronavirus be contained?
Ministers and health officials are still working on being able to contain any outbreaks in the UK. The government says the UK is prepared for all eventualities and is working on containing any outbreaks.
That involves spotting any cases quickly, isolating them and chasing up any contacts they have had to ensure they do not spread it if they have been infected. This is being done by Public Health England's (PHE) nine regional teams. The devolved administrations have their own arrangements. That involves spotting cases quickly, isolating them and identifying contacts people have had to stop any spread. This is being done by Public Health England's (PHE) nine regional teams. Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have their own arrangements.
So far it has worked well. There have now been 15 cases - after two new ones were announced on Thursday - but all have involved infection abroad. So far it has worked well. As of Friday, there have been 19 cases - all involving infection abroad.
There has been no transmission within the UK, but even if there is, that does not mean containment is defeated. If the authorities can chase the links in the transmission chain, they have a good chance of stopping its spread.There has been no transmission within the UK, but even if there is, that does not mean containment is defeated. If the authorities can chase the links in the transmission chain, they have a good chance of stopping its spread.
There is obviously concern that more countries are seeing cases, particularly those in Europe where there is more frequent travel to and from the UK. What if containment fails?
So what happens if containment fails? Even if it fails, containment will have bought the UK valuable time.
Containment should not be seen as a win-or-lose game. Even if it fails, it will have bought the UK valuable time. Scientists will be closer to a vaccine being developed and if containment lasts until the spring or summer, the milder weather will help. Scientists will be closer to developing a vaccine and if containment lasts until spring or summer, the milder weather will help.
There had been some hope the virus would find it harder to spread in warm weather - although the experience of other countries so far shows that is not the case. Delaying an epidemic until the summer would have the added benefit that the under-pressure NHS would not be under so much pressure to cope.
Nonetheless, delaying an epidemic until the summer would have the added benefit that the NHS would not be under so much pressure to cope. It is currently in the midst of its most difficult winter for a generation.
What are the symptoms?What are the symptoms?
It seems to start with a fever, followed by a dry cough.It seems to start with a fever, followed by a dry cough.
After a week, it leads to shortness of breath and some patients require hospital treatment.After a week, it leads to shortness of breath and some patients require hospital treatment.
How can I protect myself?How can I protect myself?
The World Health Organisation says: The World Health Organization says:
Is the NHS ready?Is the NHS ready?
The NHS has detailed escalation plans to cope with outbreaks of disease and surges in demand. Key to respiratory illnesses caused by coronavirus are the five specialist hospitals that have treated the UK patients. Another 20-plus regional infectious disease units are on standby to take patients if numbers dramatically increase. The NHS has detailed plans to cope with outbreaks of disease and surges in demand.
All hospitals have been asked to set up isolation pods in case patients with the virus come in, although the official advice is to phone NHS 111 and self-isolate. They include:
Currently there is no treatment or cure, so hospitals are trying to relieve the symptoms. Specialist equipment called ECMO is available at a small number of units to support the most severely ill patients if their lungs fail. Currently there is no treatment or cure, so hospitals are trying to relieve the symptoms.
Specialist equipment called ECMO - which helps with breathing - is available at a small number of units to support the most severely ill patients if their lungs fail.
As well as looking for a vaccine, researchers are exploring whether existing treatments for other conditions, such as malaria and HIV, can be used to help coronavirus patients.As well as looking for a vaccine, researchers are exploring whether existing treatments for other conditions, such as malaria and HIV, can be used to help coronavirus patients.
What if there are mass outbreaks?What if there are mass outbreaks?
In the worst-case scenario of widespread transmission in the UK - classed as an epidemic - hospitals could start cancelling routine treatments to provide spare capacity to treat coronavirus patients. In the worst-case scenario of widespread transmission in the UK - an epidemic - hospitals could start cancelling routine treatments to prioritise coronavirus patients.
Assessments will also have to be made about which patients can be advised to stay at home and isolate themselves, because the illness for many seems to be mild and passes. Assessments will be made about which patients can be advised to stay at home and isolate themselves. The illness for many seems to be mild and passes.
PHE has already announced a programme of wider surveillance to see if coronavirus is spreading undetected. Eight hospitals and 100 GP surgeries are providing testing to patients with flu-like illness and respiratory problems. PHE has already announced wider surveillance to see if coronavirus is spreading undetected. Eight hospitals and 100 GP surgeries are testing patients with flu-like illness and respiratory problems.
Could schools be closed and freedoms curtailed? Could schools be closed?
Under the Civil Contingencies Act, the government can close schools, shut down public transport and stop mass gatherings to protect the public.Under the Civil Contingencies Act, the government can close schools, shut down public transport and stop mass gatherings to protect the public.
But all the evidence suggests those measures are not particularly effective at stopping the spread of something like coronavirus. England's chief medical officer, Prof Chris Whitty, said on Thursday that if those measures were needed it would have to be "for quite a long period of time, probably more than two months".
What is more, there has to be a balance between public safety and economic and social impacts. However, evidence suggests those measures are not particularly effective at stopping the spread of something like coronavirus. And the balance between public safety and economic and social impacts would be considered.
Closing schools, for example, could disrupt exams and force parents to take time off work. New legal powers have been passed, to force people to stay in quarantine. But this is a measure more about containment than a practical step that will be taken in the event of the virus becoming an epidemic in the UK.
It is why both ministers and health officials keep stressing schools do not have to close - where schools have shut, the decision has been made by the head teacher.
The virus appears to cause a fairly mild illness for many. Elderly people and those with other health conditions appear to be most at risk.
The same is true for seasonal flu, which kills several hundred people every year, but despite this the government does not insist on mandatory vaccination or curb freedoms.
New legal powers have been given to force people to stay in quarantine. But this is a measure more about containment than a practical step that will be taken in the event of the virus becoming an epidemic in the UK.
The government and NHS simply do not have the facilities to contain many more than a few hundred people.The government and NHS simply do not have the facilities to contain many more than a few hundred people.
In the event of mass transmissions, responses will be co-ordinated at a central level by the government's Cobra committee and locally by 43 "resilience forums" in England and Wales. In the event of mass transmissions, responses will be co-ordinated by the government's Cobra committee and 43 local "resilience forums" in England and Wales.
These include PHE officials, the NHS, local councils and the emergency services. Northern Ireland and Scotland have their own arrangements, although they do liaise closely with England.These include PHE officials, the NHS, local councils and the emergency services. Northern Ireland and Scotland have their own arrangements, although they do liaise closely with England.
What questions do you have about the UK's coronavirus plans?What questions do you have about the UK's coronavirus plans?
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Use this form to ask your question:Use this form to ask your question: