This article is from the source 'bbc' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.

You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/52959756

The article has changed 10 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.

Version 2 Version 3
Coronavirus: Has a second wave of infections hit Iran? Coronavirus: Has a second wave of infections hit Iran?
(10 days later)
Iran has seen a rapid surge in the numbers of coronavirus cases in recent weeks, sparking fears it might be facing a second wave of the pandemic. Iran has seen a rapid surge in the numbers of coronavirus cases in recent weeks, sparking fears it might now be facing a second wave of the pandemic.
Iran started to relax its restrictions in mid-April, after the number of infections declined, so is it paying the price?Iran started to relax its restrictions in mid-April, after the number of infections declined, so is it paying the price?
How fast are cases rising in Iran?How fast are cases rising in Iran?
New reported infections averaged more than 3,000 a day in the first week of June - a 50% increase on the previous seven days.New reported infections averaged more than 3,000 a day in the first week of June - a 50% increase on the previous seven days.
The figure reached a high of 3,574 on 4 June, before dropping slightly.The figure reached a high of 3,574 on 4 June, before dropping slightly.
The previous highest figure was 3,186 on 30 March - during the initial outbreak, when Iran became one of the worst affected countries outside China.The previous highest figure was 3,186 on 30 March - during the initial outbreak, when Iran became one of the worst affected countries outside China.
At that time, the Iranian authorities were criticised for their hesitation in closing down mosques and key religious sites in the Shia holy city of Qom and for not moving quicker to restrict movement.At that time, the Iranian authorities were criticised for their hesitation in closing down mosques and key religious sites in the Shia holy city of Qom and for not moving quicker to restrict movement.
Then, in April, as the number of reported cases dropped to below 1,000 a day, Iran began to ease its restrictions:Then, in April, as the number of reported cases dropped to below 1,000 a day, Iran began to ease its restrictions:
City transport systems across Iran, as well as banks and offices, have been packed with people.City transport systems across Iran, as well as banks and offices, have been packed with people.
The epidemic was initially concentrated in Qom and the capital, Tehran.The epidemic was initially concentrated in Qom and the capital, Tehran.
But now, a flare-up has been reported in the south-west, notably in Khuzestan province, an oil-rich region that borders Iraq.But now, a flare-up has been reported in the south-west, notably in Khuzestan province, an oil-rich region that borders Iraq.
Why are Iran's numbers rising?Why are Iran's numbers rising?
There is clearly more social interaction with the easing of restrictions - but officials have suggested the surge in new cases could be down to more testing.There is clearly more social interaction with the easing of restrictions - but officials have suggested the surge in new cases could be down to more testing.
President Hassan Rouhani has said this means you will find more cases.President Hassan Rouhani has said this means you will find more cases.
Iran's chief epidemiologist at the country's health ministry, Mohammad-Mehdi Gouya, explained: "The main reason for the rising numbers is that we have started identifying [infected people] who have no or mild symptoms."Iran's chief epidemiologist at the country's health ministry, Mohammad-Mehdi Gouya, explained: "The main reason for the rising numbers is that we have started identifying [infected people] who have no or mild symptoms."
It currently does one test for every 79 people, which is up from about one test for every 380 two months ago. On 21 June, Iran was doing one test for every 59 people, which is up considerably from one test for every 380 two months earlier.
However, when you look at the proportion of these tests that are positive, there is a clear upward trend since the middle and end of May after it dropped sharply in April. However, when you look at the proportion of these tests that are positive, there is a clear upward trend around the middle of May and also at the end of May.
On 29 May, just under 11% of tests were positive - but by 6 June that figure had risen to over 14%. At end end of May, just over 11% of tests were positive - but by 6 June that figure had jumped to more than 14% before dropping again to around 10%.
Health officials have also pointed out the number of daily deaths recorded has been below 100 since mid-April.Health officials have also pointed out the number of daily deaths recorded has been below 100 since mid-April.
The daily figure was between 30 and 90 for most of May, but on 14 June it went above 100. This was the first time it had done so in two months. That figure was between 30 and 90 for most of May. But on 14 June daily deaths went above 100 - the first time they had done so in two months.
It would take several weeks after the initial rise in infections for an increasing trend in recorded deaths to become apparent. And since then, this figure has stayed well above 100 each day (except for 18 June when it was 87).
And a report by the Iranian parliament's research centre, published in April, suggested the real death toll could be twice as high as the official number, which comprises deaths in hospitals only. Although there's no precise definition for a second wave, Iran has now seen an upsurge in both infections and daily deaths since the initial outbreak of the coronavirus subsided.
"The consistent daily rise in infections, and a rise in deaths in the last two weeks supports fears in Iran that they are on the brink of second wave," says Prof Amir Afkhami, an expert in global health at George Washington University in the US.
What about social distancing?What about social distancing?
Health Minister Saeed Namaki said people were ignoring social-distancing rules.Health Minister Saeed Namaki said people were ignoring social-distancing rules.
"People have become completely careless regarding this disease," he told the Iranian news agency."People have become completely careless regarding this disease," he told the Iranian news agency.
"If our people fail to respect the health protocols... we must prepare ourselves for the worst situation.""If our people fail to respect the health protocols... we must prepare ourselves for the worst situation."
And a health ministry poll last week suggested only: And a health ministry poll in early June suggested only:
What options do the authorities have?What options do the authorities have?
President Rouhani has warned restrictions may have to be reintroduced if the outbreak worsens.President Rouhani has warned restrictions may have to be reintroduced if the outbreak worsens.
But the leadership in Tehran does not want to talk about a "second wave", even though some officials in other parts of Iran have been warning of one, according to BBC Persian's Rana Rahimpour. The leadership in Tehran is reluctant to talk about a "second wave", even though some officials in other parts of Iran have been warning of one, according to BBC Persian's Rana Rahimpour.
And she adds that it cannot afford to continue restrictions, because of the state of the economy, which faces multiple challenges such as US sanctions, corruption and mismanagement. She adds that it cannot afford to continue restrictions, because of the state of the economy, which faces multiple challenges such as US sanctions, corruption and mismanagement.
"To contain the virus, you need a lockdown," says Rana Rahimpour, "and in a lockdown, you need to be able to pay people.""To contain the virus, you need a lockdown," says Rana Rahimpour, "and in a lockdown, you need to be able to pay people."
Read more from Reality CheckRead more from Reality Check
Send us your questionsSend us your questions
Follow us on TwitterFollow us on Twitter