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| Coronavirus: How Iran is battling a surge in cases | Coronavirus: How Iran is battling a surge in cases |
| (17 days later) | |
| Iran has seen a significant surge in the number of coronavirus infections, and the official death toll has now gone above 20,000. | |
| Cases spiked in mid-May and have remained high despite a re-imposition of some restrictions on movement. | |
| The severity of the outbreak has been difficult to evaluate and there are concerns that the situation has been significantly worse than the government has revealed. | The severity of the outbreak has been difficult to evaluate and there are concerns that the situation has been significantly worse than the government has revealed. |
| What do we know about the numbers in Iran? | |
| Published data on new cases suggests that following a second peak at the start of June, the reported number of new cases has remained persistently high at well over 2,000 per day. | Published data on new cases suggests that following a second peak at the start of June, the reported number of new cases has remained persistently high at well over 2,000 per day. |
| However, this may well be a significant underestimate, judging by documents which indicate that Iran has been withholding the true scale of the outbreak. | |
| These documents - obtained by the BBC and believed to be unpublished Iranian official records - suggest a much higher death toll. | |
| According to these figures, the pandemic could have killed as many as 42,000 Iranians by 21 July compared with some 14,000 deaths reported by the Health Ministry by that date. | |
| Why have cases been rising? | Why have cases been rising? |
| In April, Iran began to ease its restrictions as daily infections fell: | In April, Iran began to ease its restrictions as daily infections fell: |
| City transport systems across Iran, as well as banks and offices, have been packed with people. | City transport systems across Iran, as well as banks and offices, have been packed with people. |
| The epidemic was initially concentrated in Qom and the capital, Tehran. But in the beginning of August, a flare-up was reported in the south-west, notably in Khuzestan province which borders Iraq. | |
| Officials have suggested the renewed surge in new cases could be down to more testing, and President Hassan Rouhani has said this means you will find more cases. | Officials have suggested the renewed surge in new cases could be down to more testing, and President Hassan Rouhani has said this means you will find more cases. |
| Iran's chief epidemiologist at the country's health ministry, Mohammad-Mehdi Gouya, explained: "The main reason for the rising numbers is that we have started identifying [infected people] who have no or mild symptoms." | Iran's chief epidemiologist at the country's health ministry, Mohammad-Mehdi Gouya, explained: "The main reason for the rising numbers is that we have started identifying [infected people] who have no or mild symptoms." |
| Iran increased its testing in June, and has tested about 31 people in every 100,000 people since then, considerably more than it did at the start of the pandemic. | |
| But that's still less than the US or countries in Europe that have been hit by the virus. | But that's still less than the US or countries in Europe that have been hit by the virus. |
| The proportion of tests in Iran that return a positive result began to rise in late May and early June, reaching 14%. Since then it's stayed between nine and 10%. | |
| That's about ten tests for each positive case. | That's about ten tests for each positive case. |
| The WHO has suggested at least 10 and as many as 30 tests per positive case is a good general benchmark for adequate testing, according to Our World in Data, which compiles coronavirus testing statistics. | |
| That means that at the moment, Iran may not be doing quite enough testing to find all cases. | That means that at the moment, Iran may not be doing quite enough testing to find all cases. |
| What steps have the authorities taken? | |
| Health Minister Saeed Namaki said people were ignoring social distancing rules. | Health Minister Saeed Namaki said people were ignoring social distancing rules. |
| "People have become completely careless regarding this disease," he told the Iranian news agency. | "People have become completely careless regarding this disease," he told the Iranian news agency. |
| And a health ministry poll in June suggested only: | And a health ministry poll in June suggested only: |
| During the initial outbreak, the Iranian authorities were criticised for their hesitation in closing down mosques and key religious sites, and for not moving quicker to introduce restrictions. | During the initial outbreak, the Iranian authorities were criticised for their hesitation in closing down mosques and key religious sites, and for not moving quicker to introduce restrictions. |
| The leadership in Iran cannot afford to continue restrictions because of the state of the economy, according to BBC Persian's Rana Rahimpour. | The leadership in Iran cannot afford to continue restrictions because of the state of the economy, according to BBC Persian's Rana Rahimpour. |
| She adds that it faces multiple challenges such as US sanctions, corruption and mismanagement. | She adds that it faces multiple challenges such as US sanctions, corruption and mismanagement. |
| President Rouhani has told Iranians they must wear face masks on public transport and in crowded areas, and said where necessary, the police and security forces will enforce the rules. | |
| And Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has called for action to stop the rising level of infections, and criticised those who don't wear face masks. | |
| In July, the authorities in the capital, Tehran, announced restrictions were being temporarily re-imposed on some businesses and public gatherings, including wedding halls, coffee shops, tea houses, amusement parks and zoos. | |
| With the holy month of Muharram starting on 20 August, the health ministry has prohibited any gatherings indoors. | |
| "The slightest negligence will lead to a spike," Health Minister Alireza Raisi has said. | |
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