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Coronavirus: Has a second wave of infections hit Iran? Coronavirus: How Iran is battling a new wave of coronavirus
(14 days later)
Iran has seen a rapid surge in the numbers of coronavirus cases in recent weeks, sparking fears it might now be facing a second wave of the pandemic. Iran has seen a rapid surge in the numbers of coronavirus cases recently, with daily recorded deaths reaching new highs.
Iran started to relax its restrictions in mid-April, after the number of infections declined, so is it paying the price? Iran started to relax its restrictions in mid-April, after the number of infections declined, so what's happened since then?
How fast are cases rising in Iran? How fast are deaths rising in Iran?
Iran's daily reported death toll has been rising sharply in recent weeks.
In mid-June, deaths went above 100 - for the first time in two months.
And since then, this figure has been going up, reaching 221 dead by 9 July.
New reported infections averaged more than 3,000 a day in the first week of June - a 50% increase on the previous seven days.New reported infections averaged more than 3,000 a day in the first week of June - a 50% increase on the previous seven days.
The figure reached a high of 3,574 on 4 June, before dropping slightly. This figure reached a high of 3,574 on 4 June, before dropping slightly. There have been more than 2,000 cases a day since then.
The previous highest figure was 3,186 on 30 March - during the initial outbreak, when Iran became one of the worst affected countries outside China.The previous highest figure was 3,186 on 30 March - during the initial outbreak, when Iran became one of the worst affected countries outside China.
At that time, the Iranian authorities were criticised for their hesitation in closing down mosques and key religious sites in the Shia holy city of Qom and for not moving quicker to restrict movement. So Iran has seen both an upsurge in infections and a marked increase in daily deaths since the initial outbreak of the coronavirus subsided.
Then, in April, as the number of reported cases dropped to below 1,000 a day, Iran began to ease its restrictions:
City transport systems across Iran, as well as banks and offices, have been packed with people.
The epidemic was initially concentrated in Qom and the capital, Tehran.
But now, a flare-up has been reported in the south-west, notably in Khuzestan province, an oil-rich region that borders Iraq.
Why are Iran's numbers rising?Why are Iran's numbers rising?
There is clearly more social interaction with the easing of restrictions - but officials have suggested the surge in new cases could be down to more testing. In April, Iran began to ease its restrictions as daily infections fell:
President Hassan Rouhani has said this means you will find more cases. City transport systems across Iran, as well as banks and offices, have been packed with people.
The epidemic was initially concentrated in Qom and the capital, Tehran. But now, a flare-up has been reported in the south-west, notably in Khuzestan province, an oil-rich region that borders Iraq.
Officials have suggested the renewed surge in new cases could be down to more testing, and President Hassan Rouhani has said this means you will find more cases.
Iran's chief epidemiologist at the country's health ministry, Mohammad-Mehdi Gouya, explained: "The main reason for the rising numbers is that we have started identifying [infected people] who have no or mild symptoms."Iran's chief epidemiologist at the country's health ministry, Mohammad-Mehdi Gouya, explained: "The main reason for the rising numbers is that we have started identifying [infected people] who have no or mild symptoms."
On 21 June, Iran was doing one test for every 59 people, which is up considerably from one test for every 380 two months earlier. Iran has been increasing its testing, reaching about one in every 45 people by 7 July, considerably more than it did at the start of the pandemic.
However, when you look at the proportion of these tests that are positive, there is a clear upward trend around the middle of May and also at the end of May. But that's still less than the US or countries in Europe that have been hit by the virus.
At end end of May, just over 11% of tests were positive - but by 6 June that figure had jumped to more than 14% before dropping again to around 10%. The proportion of tests in Iran that return a positive result began to rise in late May and early June, reaching 14%. But since then it's stayed between nine and 10%.
Health officials have also pointed out the number of daily deaths recorded has been below 100 since mid-April. That's about ten tests for each positive case.
That figure was between 30 and 90 for most of May. But on 14 June daily deaths went above 100 - the first time they had done so in two months. The WHO has suggested 10 to 30 tests per positive case as a general benchmark for adequate testing, according to Our World in Data, which compiles coronavirus testing statistics.
And since then, this figure has stayed well above 100 each day (except for 18 June when it was 87). That means that at the moment, Iran may not be doing quite enough testing to find all cases.
Although there's no precise definition for a second wave, Iran has now seen an upsurge in both infections and daily deaths since the initial outbreak of the coronavirus subsided.
"The consistent daily rise in infections, and a rise in deaths in the last two weeks supports fears in Iran that they are on the brink of second wave," says Prof Amir Afkhami, an expert in global health at George Washington University in the US.
What about social distancing?What about social distancing?
Health Minister Saeed Namaki said people were ignoring social-distancing rules. Health Minister Saeed Namaki said people were ignoring social distancing rules.
"People have become completely careless regarding this disease," he told the Iranian news agency."People have become completely careless regarding this disease," he told the Iranian news agency.
"If our people fail to respect the health protocols... we must prepare ourselves for the worst situation."
And a health ministry poll in early June suggested only:And a health ministry poll in early June suggested only:
What options do the authorities have?What options do the authorities have?
President Rouhani has warned restrictions may have to be reintroduced if the outbreak worsens. During the initial outbreak, the Iranian authorities were criticised for their hesitation in closing down mosques and key religious sites, and for not moving quicker to introduce restrictions.
The leadership in Tehran is reluctant to talk about a "second wave", even though some officials in other parts of Iran have been warning of one, according to BBC Persian's Rana Rahimpour. The leadership in Iran cannot afford to continue restrictions because of the state of the economy, according to BBC Persian's Rana Rahimpour.
She adds that it cannot afford to continue restrictions, because of the state of the economy, which faces multiple challenges such as US sanctions, corruption and mismanagement. She adds that it faces multiple challenges such as US sanctions, corruption and mismanagement.
"To contain the virus, you need a lockdown," says Rana Rahimpour, "and in a lockdown, you need to be able to pay people." However, President Rouhani has now told Iranians they must wear face masks on public transport and in crowded areas, and said where necessary, the police and security forces will enforce the rules.
And Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has criticised officials who don't wear masks in public or at meetings.
He has said it sets a bad example to the public.
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