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| How Boris Johnson Could Fall, or Hang On, as U.K. Prime Minister | How Boris Johnson Could Fall, or Hang On, as U.K. Prime Minister |
| (3 days later) | |
| LONDON — One of his lawmakers called him a “dead man walking,” and another switched sides to the main opposition party. A former cabinet colleague told him: “In the name of God, go.” His longest-serving senior adviser sent him a stinging resignation letter. | |
| And the police are investigating a string of events at his offices, with the aid of more than 300 photographs. | And the police are investigating a string of events at his offices, with the aid of more than 300 photographs. |
| A little more than two years ago, Prime Minister Boris Johnson led the Conservative Party to its biggest election victory in decades. Now, after apologizing for attending a party in Downing Street during Britain’s first and fiercest coronavirus lockdown, and with the police following up with an internal inquiry into other potentially rule-breaking gatherings, Mr. Johnson is in trouble. | |
| Here is a guide to just how much trouble, and what could happen next. | Here is a guide to just how much trouble, and what could happen next. |
| For months, Mr. Johnson has been grappling with a series of reports about parties in Downing Street, where British prime ministers both live and work, while Covid lockdown rules were in force. | For months, Mr. Johnson has been grappling with a series of reports about parties in Downing Street, where British prime ministers both live and work, while Covid lockdown rules were in force. |
| An internal inquiry by a senior civil servant, Sue Gray, delivered an update last month on the gatherings, tallying accusations about 16 events, 12 substantial enough for the police to investigate. The police said this week that they had sent written questions to more than 50 people, and that they would review a decision not to investigate one event after a photograph emerged from it featuring Mr. Johnson and what appeared to be an open bottle of sparkling wine. | |
| Any police action is likely to come in a form akin to a speeding ticket — a “fixed penalty notice” — rather than a full prosecution. But in a country that banned almost all social contact for months, and kept lesser but still onerous restrictions far longer, these claims pack an extraordinary emotional punch. Members of Parliament have responded to Mr. Johnson’s denials, and then his apologies, with testimony from people who were barred from visiting dying relatives at the time of the gatherings. | |
| After Mr. Johnson spoke about Ms. Gray’s initial findings last week, a lawmaker from his own party recounted the austere arrangements he had made for his grandmother’s funeral — held not long before one of the most talked-about Downing Street gatherings — and asked: “Does the prime minister think I am a fool?” | After Mr. Johnson spoke about Ms. Gray’s initial findings last week, a lawmaker from his own party recounted the austere arrangements he had made for his grandmother’s funeral — held not long before one of the most talked-about Downing Street gatherings — and asked: “Does the prime minister think I am a fool?” |
| Ms. Gray’s update gave no details about any parties — a relief for Mr. Johnson after weeks of swirling gossip about aides filling a suitcase with wine and breaking his child’s garden swing — and it leveled no direct criticism at the prime minister. | Ms. Gray’s update gave no details about any parties — a relief for Mr. Johnson after weeks of swirling gossip about aides filling a suitcase with wine and breaking his child’s garden swing — and it leveled no direct criticism at the prime minister. |
| Because of the police investigations, she said, “I am extremely limited in what I can say.” | Because of the police investigations, she said, “I am extremely limited in what I can say.” |
| But she declared that “at least some of the gatherings” constituted “a serious failure to observe not just the high standards expected of those working at the heart of government but also of the standards expected of the entire British population at the time.” | |
| In Britain, it is hard to get rid of a prime minister, but far from impossible. The nation’s top job goes to the leader of the political party with a parliamentary majority. The party can oust its leader and choose another one, changing prime ministers without a general election. | In Britain, it is hard to get rid of a prime minister, but far from impossible. The nation’s top job goes to the leader of the political party with a parliamentary majority. The party can oust its leader and choose another one, changing prime ministers without a general election. |
| Under the Conservative Party’s rules, its members of Parliament can hold a binding vote of no confidence in Mr. Johnson if 54 of them write to formally request one. | Under the Conservative Party’s rules, its members of Parliament can hold a binding vote of no confidence in Mr. Johnson if 54 of them write to formally request one. |
| The request letters are confidential. Only one senior lawmaker knows what has been sent, and he won’t discuss the issue until it’s time for a vote. | The request letters are confidential. Only one senior lawmaker knows what has been sent, and he won’t discuss the issue until it’s time for a vote. |
| In a no-confidence vote, held by secret ballot, Mr. Johnson would keep his job by winning a simple majority of Conservative lawmakers. They would then have to wait at least a year before holding another such vote, unless they changed the rules. | In a no-confidence vote, held by secret ballot, Mr. Johnson would keep his job by winning a simple majority of Conservative lawmakers. They would then have to wait at least a year before holding another such vote, unless they changed the rules. |
| So far, relatively few Conservative members of Parliament have publicly called on Mr. Johnson to quit, one of whom, Christian Wakeford, then announced that he had left the party and joined the Labour opposition. But one senior Conservative — Andrew Mitchell — announced that he was withdrawing his support as Mr. Johnson fielded angry questions in Parliament last week, and several more have since followed suit. | So far, relatively few Conservative members of Parliament have publicly called on Mr. Johnson to quit, one of whom, Christian Wakeford, then announced that he had left the party and joined the Labour opposition. But one senior Conservative — Andrew Mitchell — announced that he was withdrawing his support as Mr. Johnson fielded angry questions in Parliament last week, and several more have since followed suit. |
| Cabinet rebellions destabilize prime ministers and can push them toward the exit. The catalyst for Margaret Thatcher’s demise in 1990 was the resignation of Geoffrey Howe, a disaffected former ally, and Theresa May lost several ministers — including Mr. Johnson, who quit as foreign secretary in 2018. | Cabinet rebellions destabilize prime ministers and can push them toward the exit. The catalyst for Margaret Thatcher’s demise in 1990 was the resignation of Geoffrey Howe, a disaffected former ally, and Theresa May lost several ministers — including Mr. Johnson, who quit as foreign secretary in 2018. |
| As prime minister, Mr. Johnson has more or less maintained cabinet discipline so far, though on Tuesday he slightly rejigged his top team in order to replace the officials responsible for keeping rank-and-file members of Parliament in line. | |
| At this point, the most stinging resignation has come from outside the Parliament or the cabinet: Munira Mirza, a senior Downing Street adviser who had worked closely with Mr. Johnson for well over a decade, quit last week with a sharp letter accusing him of a “grave error of judgment” over a gibe he directed at the opposition leader, Keir Starmer, during last week’s debate. Mr. Johnson accused Mr. Starmer, a former chief prosecutor, of failing to pursue one of Britain’s most notorious pedophiles — a case in which he was not involved. That controversy grew on Monday after Mr. Starmer was mobbed by anti-vaccine protesters, some of whom appeared to echo Mr. Johnson’s accusation. | |
| A minister frequently discussed as Mr. Johnson’s potential successor, Rishi Sunak, the chancellor of the Exchequer, distanced himself from the accusation, taking the latest in what commentators have interpreted as a series of small steps away from the prime minister. He was slow to express support after Mr. Johnson’s first apology and later cut short a television interview while being asked about Mr. Johnson’s position. | |
| Once this was known as a visit from the “men in gray suits,” a phrase dating from an age when all key power brokers were men. In those days, when a group known as the “magic circle” chose the Conservative leader, such bigwigs could withdraw support, too, and ask the prime minister to resign. Nowadays things aren’t quite like that, but leaders can still be persuaded to depart on their own terms rather than endure being booted out. | Once this was known as a visit from the “men in gray suits,” a phrase dating from an age when all key power brokers were men. In those days, when a group known as the “magic circle” chose the Conservative leader, such bigwigs could withdraw support, too, and ask the prime minister to resign. Nowadays things aren’t quite like that, but leaders can still be persuaded to depart on their own terms rather than endure being booted out. |
| Mrs. May resigned in 2019, after surviving a leadership vote, when it was clear that her position had become hopeless. Similar pressure, accompanied by ministerial resignations, was used to evict Tony Blair, the Labour Party prime minister, from Downing Street in 2007. | Mrs. May resigned in 2019, after surviving a leadership vote, when it was clear that her position had become hopeless. Similar pressure, accompanied by ministerial resignations, was used to evict Tony Blair, the Labour Party prime minister, from Downing Street in 2007. |
| Timing a coup is never easy. Critics are unlikely to force a confidence vote unless they think Mr. Johnson would lose. That point may be near but, critically, there is no consensus on who would replace him and therefore no single cabal orchestrating a challenge. | Timing a coup is never easy. Critics are unlikely to force a confidence vote unless they think Mr. Johnson would lose. That point may be near but, critically, there is no consensus on who would replace him and therefore no single cabal orchestrating a challenge. |
| Mr. Sunak is the front-runner and Liz Truss, the foreign secretary, is a leading contender, but several others may run. They all need to be careful. In the past, ambitious rivals have suffered from being seen as disloyal (though not Mr. Johnson, who opposed Mrs. May and then succeeded her). | Mr. Sunak is the front-runner and Liz Truss, the foreign secretary, is a leading contender, but several others may run. They all need to be careful. In the past, ambitious rivals have suffered from being seen as disloyal (though not Mr. Johnson, who opposed Mrs. May and then succeeded her). |
| For most Conservative lawmakers, the question is whether a change would help them. None of Mr. Johnson’s potential successors have shown that they can match the appeal he demonstrated in leading the party to a landslide victory in 2019. | For most Conservative lawmakers, the question is whether a change would help them. None of Mr. Johnson’s potential successors have shown that they can match the appeal he demonstrated in leading the party to a landslide victory in 2019. |
| Most Conservative lawmakers seem to have been waiting for Ms. Gray’s inquiry. But what she published last week looks unlikely to decide the matter. The police have set no firm timetable for their investigation or any action that might result. | Most Conservative lawmakers seem to have been waiting for Ms. Gray’s inquiry. But what she published last week looks unlikely to decide the matter. The police have set no firm timetable for their investigation or any action that might result. |
| Escaping scrapes is one of the prime minister’s defining skills. A Conservative former prime minister, David Cameron, once described Mr. Johnson as a “greased piglet”: His career has contained no shortage of dismissals and humiliations, each followed by triumph. | Escaping scrapes is one of the prime minister’s defining skills. A Conservative former prime minister, David Cameron, once described Mr. Johnson as a “greased piglet”: His career has contained no shortage of dismissals and humiliations, each followed by triumph. |
| To slip out of this tight corner, Mr. Johnson needs to avert cabinet resignations and prevent a rush of letters demanding a no-confidence vote. | To slip out of this tight corner, Mr. Johnson needs to avert cabinet resignations and prevent a rush of letters demanding a no-confidence vote. |
| Mr. Johnson will then hope that Ms. Gray’s initial report was vague enough for him to survive, with the help of changes in his cabinet and his Downing Street team, and that public interest fades over the course of the police investigation. He also hopes to regain popularity, especially among his lawmakers, by lifting remaining Covid restrictions earlier than planned. | |
| Aside from the crisis over Downing Street parties, things look sticky for the government. Energy bills are soaring, inflation is spiking and interest rates have risen just as Mr. Johnson is about to raise taxes. | Aside from the crisis over Downing Street parties, things look sticky for the government. Energy bills are soaring, inflation is spiking and interest rates have risen just as Mr. Johnson is about to raise taxes. |
| Opinion polls show a collapse of support for Mr. Johnson personally and suggest that he is now dragging down his party, which faces local elections in May. Some recent surveys put the Conservatives as much as 10 points behind Labour. | |
| Mr. Johnson became prime minister in 2019 because his party correctly judged that he would win them a general election. If it concludes that he will lose them the next one, his days are numbered. | Mr. Johnson became prime minister in 2019 because his party correctly judged that he would win them a general election. If it concludes that he will lose them the next one, his days are numbered. |