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| How Boris Johnson Could Lose His Job as U.K. Prime Minister: Latest Details | How Boris Johnson Could Lose His Job as U.K. Prime Minister: Latest Details |
| (about 3 hours later) | |
| LONDON — One of his lawmakers calls him a “dead man walking.” Another, once a cabinet colleague, told him: “In the name of God, go.” One has even switched sides to the main opposition party. | LONDON — One of his lawmakers calls him a “dead man walking.” Another, once a cabinet colleague, told him: “In the name of God, go.” One has even switched sides to the main opposition party. |
| And now the police are investigating “a number of events” at his offices. | And now the police are investigating “a number of events” at his offices. |
| Two years ago, Prime Minister Boris Johnson led the Conservative Party to its biggest election victory in decades. Now, after apologizing for attending a party in Downing Street during Britain’s first and fiercest coronavirus lockdown, and with the police following up an internal inquiry into an expanding list of other potentially rule-breaking gatherings, Mr. Johnson is in trouble. | Two years ago, Prime Minister Boris Johnson led the Conservative Party to its biggest election victory in decades. Now, after apologizing for attending a party in Downing Street during Britain’s first and fiercest coronavirus lockdown, and with the police following up an internal inquiry into an expanding list of other potentially rule-breaking gatherings, Mr. Johnson is in trouble. |
| Here is a guide to just how much trouble, and what could happen next. | Here is a guide to just how much trouble, and what could happen next. |
| This month, Mr. Johnson apologized for attending a gathering in May 2020 that apparently violated the lockdown rules he had imposed on England. The party was in the garden of No. 10 Downing Street, where British prime ministers both live and work, and staff were asked to “bring your own booze.” | This month, Mr. Johnson apologized for attending a gathering in May 2020 that apparently violated the lockdown rules he had imposed on England. The party was in the garden of No. 10 Downing Street, where British prime ministers both live and work, and staff were asked to “bring your own booze.” |
| Mr. Johnson said he thought it was a work event, but that did little to mollify critics. At the time of the party and for weeks beforehand, strict lockdown rules prohibited socializing with more than one other person, even outside. Some lawmakers responded to Mr. Johnson’s statement with testimony from people who were barred from visiting dying relatives because of the restrictions. | Mr. Johnson said he thought it was a work event, but that did little to mollify critics. At the time of the party and for weeks beforehand, strict lockdown rules prohibited socializing with more than one other person, even outside. Some lawmakers responded to Mr. Johnson’s statement with testimony from people who were barred from visiting dying relatives because of the restrictions. |
| The following day, Mr. Johnson’s spokesman announced that his office had “apologized to the palace” for two parties held in Downing Street in April 2021, without the prime minister, on the night before the queen sat alone at a socially distanced funeral for her husband, Prince Philip. | The following day, Mr. Johnson’s spokesman announced that his office had “apologized to the palace” for two parties held in Downing Street in April 2021, without the prime minister, on the night before the queen sat alone at a socially distanced funeral for her husband, Prince Philip. |
| On Monday, the broadcaster ITV added that in June 2020, Mr. Johnson had a 30-person surprise birthday lunch in Downing Street’s cabinet room. His office told ITV that he had spent “less than 10 minutes” at a brief gathering organized by staff, and firmly denied a further claim that he had hosted friends in the prime ministerial apartment that evening. | On Monday, the broadcaster ITV added that in June 2020, Mr. Johnson had a 30-person surprise birthday lunch in Downing Street’s cabinet room. His office told ITV that he had spent “less than 10 minutes” at a brief gathering organized by staff, and firmly denied a further claim that he had hosted friends in the prime ministerial apartment that evening. |
| These were just the latest in a series of reports about parties in Downing Street while restrictions were in force, claims that had already depressed the Conservatives’ opinion-poll ratings and forced the tearful resignation of an aide. A senior civil servant, Sue Gray, has been assigned to investigate the reports and is expected to publish her findings within days. On Tuesday, a top official in London’s Metropolitan Police said that they were also investigating events in Downing Street and other government departments, though without giving further details. | |
| In Britain, it is hard to get rid of a prime minister, but far from impossible. The nation’s top job goes to the leader of the political party with a parliamentary majority. The party can oust its leader and choose another one, changing prime ministers without a general election. | In Britain, it is hard to get rid of a prime minister, but far from impossible. The nation’s top job goes to the leader of the political party with a parliamentary majority. The party can oust its leader and choose another one, changing prime ministers without a general election. |
| Under the Conservative Party’s rules, its members of Parliament can hold a binding vote of no confidence in Mr. Johnson if 54 of them write to formally request one. | Under the Conservative Party’s rules, its members of Parliament can hold a binding vote of no confidence in Mr. Johnson if 54 of them write to formally request one. |
| The request letters are confidential. Only one senior lawmaker knows how many have been sent, and he won’t discuss the issue until it’s time for a vote. | The request letters are confidential. Only one senior lawmaker knows how many have been sent, and he won’t discuss the issue until it’s time for a vote. |
| In a no-confidence vote, held by secret ballot, Mr. Johnson would keep his job by winning a simple majority of Conservative lawmakers. They would then have to wait at least a year before holding another such vote, unless they changed the rules. | In a no-confidence vote, held by secret ballot, Mr. Johnson would keep his job by winning a simple majority of Conservative lawmakers. They would then have to wait at least a year before holding another such vote, unless they changed the rules. |
| So far, only eight Conservative members of Parliament have publicly called on Mr. Johnson to quit, one of whom, Christian Wakeford, then announced that he had left the party and joined the Labour opposition. | So far, only eight Conservative members of Parliament have publicly called on Mr. Johnson to quit, one of whom, Christian Wakeford, then announced that he had left the party and joined the Labour opposition. |
| A controversy is developing, however, over what the Conservative Party may be doing to maintain discipline. Another rebel, William Wragg, said on Thursday that he had heard reports of threats to his colleagues by party officials that “would seem to constitute blackmail.” | A controversy is developing, however, over what the Conservative Party may be doing to maintain discipline. Another rebel, William Wragg, said on Thursday that he had heard reports of threats to his colleagues by party officials that “would seem to constitute blackmail.” |
| Mr. Johnson said that he had seen no evidence of intimidation, and a cabinet minister accused Mr. Wragg of “attention-seeking behavior.” | Mr. Johnson said that he had seen no evidence of intimidation, and a cabinet minister accused Mr. Wragg of “attention-seeking behavior.” |
| In Parliament, Speaker Lindsay Hoyle issued a warning that lawmakers were “not above the criminal law,” and said any blackmail would be “a matter for the police.” | In Parliament, Speaker Lindsay Hoyle issued a warning that lawmakers were “not above the criminal law,” and said any blackmail would be “a matter for the police.” |
| Cabinet rebellions destabilize prime ministers and can push them toward the exit. The catalyst for Margaret Thatcher’s demise in 1990 was the resignation of Geoffrey Howe, a disaffected former ally, and Theresa May lost several ministers — including Mr. Johnson, who quit as foreign secretary in 2018. | Cabinet rebellions destabilize prime ministers and can push them toward the exit. The catalyst for Margaret Thatcher’s demise in 1990 was the resignation of Geoffrey Howe, a disaffected former ally, and Theresa May lost several ministers — including Mr. Johnson, who quit as foreign secretary in 2018. |
| As prime minister, Mr. Johnson has more or less maintained cabinet discipline so far. But one senior minister, the former Brexit negotiator David Frost, quit late last year, citing policy differences, and a junior Treasury minister resigned on Monday in protest at what he said was a failure to tackle fraud in Covid relief funds. | As prime minister, Mr. Johnson has more or less maintained cabinet discipline so far. But one senior minister, the former Brexit negotiator David Frost, quit late last year, citing policy differences, and a junior Treasury minister resigned on Monday in protest at what he said was a failure to tackle fraud in Covid relief funds. |
| A minister frequently discussed as Mr. Johnson’s potential successor, Rishi Sunak, the chancellor of the Exchequer, waited several hours to express lukewarm support after Mr. Johnson’s first apology and later cut short a television interview while being asked about Mr. Johnson’s position. | A minister frequently discussed as Mr. Johnson’s potential successor, Rishi Sunak, the chancellor of the Exchequer, waited several hours to express lukewarm support after Mr. Johnson’s first apology and later cut short a television interview while being asked about Mr. Johnson’s position. |
| Once this was known as a visit from the “men in gray suits,” a phrase dating from an age when all key power brokers were men. In those days, when a group known as the “magic circle” chose the Conservative leader, such bigwigs could withdraw support, too, and ask the prime minister to resign. Nowadays things aren’t quite like that, but leaders can still be persuaded to depart on their own terms rather than endure being booted out. | Once this was known as a visit from the “men in gray suits,” a phrase dating from an age when all key power brokers were men. In those days, when a group known as the “magic circle” chose the Conservative leader, such bigwigs could withdraw support, too, and ask the prime minister to resign. Nowadays things aren’t quite like that, but leaders can still be persuaded to depart on their own terms rather than endure being booted out. |
| Mrs. May resigned in 2019, after surviving a leadership vote, when it was clear that her position had become hopeless. Similar pressure, accompanied by ministerial resignations, was used to evict Tony Blair, the Labour Party prime minister, from Downing Street in 2007. | Mrs. May resigned in 2019, after surviving a leadership vote, when it was clear that her position had become hopeless. Similar pressure, accompanied by ministerial resignations, was used to evict Tony Blair, the Labour Party prime minister, from Downing Street in 2007. |
| Timing a coup is never easy. Critics are unlikely to force a confidence vote until they think Mr. Johnson would lose. That point may be near but, critically, there is no consensus on who would replace him and therefore no single cabal orchestrating a challenge. | Timing a coup is never easy. Critics are unlikely to force a confidence vote until they think Mr. Johnson would lose. That point may be near but, critically, there is no consensus on who would replace him and therefore no single cabal orchestrating a challenge. |
| Mr. Sunak is the front-runner and Liz Truss, the foreign secretary, is a leading contender, but several others may run. They all need to be careful. In the past, ambitious rivals have suffered from being seen as disloyal (though not Mr. Johnson, who opposed Mrs. May and then succeeded her). | Mr. Sunak is the front-runner and Liz Truss, the foreign secretary, is a leading contender, but several others may run. They all need to be careful. In the past, ambitious rivals have suffered from being seen as disloyal (though not Mr. Johnson, who opposed Mrs. May and then succeeded her). |
| For most Conservative lawmakers, the question is whether a change would help them. None of Mr. Johnson’s potential successors have shown that they can match the appeal he demonstrated in leading the party to a landslide victory in 2019. | For most Conservative lawmakers, the question is whether a change would help them. None of Mr. Johnson’s potential successors have shown that they can match the appeal he demonstrated in leading the party to a landslide victory in 2019. |
| Most Conservative lawmakers seem to be waiting for Ms. Gray’s internal inquiry. Despite a reputation for independence, she is in a rare and awkward position — an unelected civil servant compiling a report that could destroy her elected boss. So some analysts expect her to restrict her findings to facts. | Most Conservative lawmakers seem to be waiting for Ms. Gray’s internal inquiry. Despite a reputation for independence, she is in a rare and awkward position — an unelected civil servant compiling a report that could destroy her elected boss. So some analysts expect her to restrict her findings to facts. |
| The police investigation, which was prompted by information turned over by Ms. Gray’s inquiry, suggests some of those facts may be damaging. | The police investigation, which was prompted by information turned over by Ms. Gray’s inquiry, suggests some of those facts may be damaging. |
| Escaping scrapes is one of the prime minister’s defining skills. A Conservative former prime minister, David Cameron, once described Mr. Johnson as a “greased piglet”: His career has contained no shortage of dismissals and humiliations, each followed by triumph. | Escaping scrapes is one of the prime minister’s defining skills. A Conservative former prime minister, David Cameron, once described Mr. Johnson as a “greased piglet”: His career has contained no shortage of dismissals and humiliations, each followed by triumph. |
| To slip out of this tight corner, Mr. Johnson needs to avert cabinet resignations and prevent a rush of letters demanding a no-confidence vote. Earlier this month, he appeared to gain some breathing space with an announcement ending Britain’s remaining Covid restrictions — a popular cause with his party’s lawmakers. | To slip out of this tight corner, Mr. Johnson needs to avert cabinet resignations and prevent a rush of letters demanding a no-confidence vote. Earlier this month, he appeared to gain some breathing space with an announcement ending Britain’s remaining Covid restrictions — a popular cause with his party’s lawmakers. |
| Mr. Johnson will then hope that Ms. Gray’s report is diplomatic enough for him to survive, albeit after another apology and a purge of his team. | Mr. Johnson will then hope that Ms. Gray’s report is diplomatic enough for him to survive, albeit after another apology and a purge of his team. |
| Aside from the crisis over Downing Street parties, things look sticky for the government. Energy bills are soaring, inflation is spiking and interest rates have risen just as Mr. Johnson is about to raise taxes. | Aside from the crisis over Downing Street parties, things look sticky for the government. Energy bills are soaring, inflation is spiking and interest rates have risen just as Mr. Johnson is about to raise taxes. |
| Mr. Johnson’s enemies are circling and Mr. Sunak and Ms. Truss are maneuvering. Opinion polls show a collapse of support for him personally and suggest that he is now dragging down his party, which faces local elections in May. Many recent surveys put the Conservatives 10 or more points behind Labour. | Mr. Johnson’s enemies are circling and Mr. Sunak and Ms. Truss are maneuvering. Opinion polls show a collapse of support for him personally and suggest that he is now dragging down his party, which faces local elections in May. Many recent surveys put the Conservatives 10 or more points behind Labour. |
| Mr. Johnson became prime minister in 2019 because his party correctly judged that he would win them a general election. If it concludes that he will lose them the next one, his days are numbered. | Mr. Johnson became prime minister in 2019 because his party correctly judged that he would win them a general election. If it concludes that he will lose them the next one, his days are numbered. |