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How much grain has been shipped from Ukraine? What is the Ukraine grain deal and what good has it done?
(about 1 month later)
A grain ship in the port of Chornomorsk on Ukraine's Black Sea coastA grain ship in the port of Chornomorsk on Ukraine's Black Sea coast
Russia is restarting its cooperation in a scheme to export grain from Black Sea ports, days after saying it was withdrawing. Russia is asking Western nations to soften their sanctions in exchange for renewing a deal to let Ukraine export its grain.
In July Moscow agreed to allow ships to export millions of tonnes of grain and other foodstuffs from Ukraine through a safe corridor in the Black Sea. The deal has enabled Ukraine to transport millions of tonnes of food through the Black Sea despite the ongoing conflict.
How much food has been shipped from Ukraine? Why was the grain deal needed?
After Russia invaded Ukraine, its navy imposed a blockade on Ukraine's Black Sea ports, trapping about 20 million tonnes of grain meant for export inside the country, along with other foodstuffs such as maize and sunflower oil. Ukraine is a major global exporter of sunflower, maize, wheat and barley.
Since Ukraine is one of the world's largest exporters of food, this caused food prices to increase worldwide. When Russia invaded in February 2022, its naval vessels blockaded Ukraine's ports, trapping some 20 million tonnes of grain.
However, the two sides signed the Black Sea initiative on 22 July, creating a safe corridor for shipping. That forced global food prices to all-time highs.
The first ship sailed from Ukraine on 1 August, and up until 28 October, more than 9.3 million tonnes of food had been exported through the Black Sea, according to the UN. Food supplies were particularly threatened in Middle Eastern and African countries which rely heavily on Ukrainian grain, and the UN says prices of staple foods rose across these regions by an average of 30%.
In September, Ukraine exported four million tonnes of food through the Black Sea. UN secretary general António Guterres said 44 million people in 38 countries were facing "emergency levels of hunger".
Before Russia's invasion, it had been shipping five million tonnes every month. "UN officials were worried about the Horn of Africa, where drought was already pushing countries towards famine conditions, and a lack of grain was making things worse," says Richard Gowan from The International Crisis Group, which works to prevent conflict.
Exports have not returned to pre-war levels partly because many companies refuse to send their cargo ships into the corridor. Will the grain deal be extended?
"They're still afraid of their ships hitting a mine or getting attacked by the Russians," says David Osler, of the shipping journal Lloyd's List. The deal is meant to be extended for 120 days at a time, and the next renewal is due on 18 March.
Where has the food gone? However, Russia is only offering another 60 days.
Some food has gone directly to the poorest countries in the world, and some has been shipped to countries where people are at risk of starvation, under UN humanitarian relief programmes. It wants Russian producers to be able to export more food and fertiliser to the rest of the world, but says Western sanctions mean they can't.
However, UN figures show that the bulk of Ukrainian food exported in the last three months has been going to Spain, Turkey, Italy, China and the Netherlands. There are no specific Western sanctions on Russia's agricultural exports, but Moscow argues that other restrictions in place mean international banks, insurers and shippers are reluctant to do business with its exporters.
Grain ships travel in a narrow corridor through the Black Sea Russia is the biggest exporter of wheat in the world, with a 19% share of the global market. Its wheat exports have increased over the past year, according to agricultural consultancy Sovecon.
Before the war, the top importers of Ukrainian wheat were Egypt, Indonesia and Bangladesh. The country pulled out of the Black Sea grain deal in November last year, accusing Ukraine of launching a "massive" drone attack on its fleet in Crimea from vessels in the safe shipping corridor.
The UN said in September that just under 30% had gone to lower-income countries, while 44% had been shipped to high-income countries. However, it rejoined a few days later.
However, the resumption of Ukrainian food exports across the world helped to lower international food prices between July and the end of October, judging by the UN food price index. How does the grain corridor work?
How does the safe sea corridor work? On 22 July last year, Russia and Ukraine signed the Black Sea Grain Initiative, with the support of the UN and Turkey.
Russia and Ukraine both signed deals with Turkey to establish a corridor from Odesa, and two neighbouring ports, to the Istanbul strait. It let cargo ships pass safely through the Black Sea to and from the ports of Odesa, Chornomorsk and Yuzhny/Pivdennyi.
This corridor is 310 nautical miles long and three nautical miles wide. The first grain shipments started in early August, using a corridor 310 nautical miles long and three nautical miles wide.
Ukrainian vessels guide grain ships in and out of port past mines which Ukrainian naval forces have laid. According to the UN's Joint Coordination Centre (JCC), which oversees the scheme, over 800 ships have left Ukraine's ports in the past eight months, carrying more than 23 million tonnes of grain and other foodstuffs, as well as fertiliser.
Turkish personnel inspect the ships for weapons, at the request of the Russians. These extra supplies were a major factor in lowering world food prices.
The agreement is due to expire after 120 days, in mid-November, but there are hopes it will be renewed. Prices started falling in spring 2022, as markets anticipated a grain deal being signed, and are now lower than they were before Russia's invasion.
Why did Russia pull out? How much grain is being exported?
Russia said it was temporarily suspending the Black Sea corridor deal after Ukraine attacked its naval base at Sevastopol with drones. Ukraine is exporting 30% less food that it did before the Russian invasion, according to its agriculture ministry.
It says a ship using the corridor was involved in the attack, although the UN says there were no ships in the corridor at the time. This is partly because farmers are producing less, due to the fighting across large parts of the country.
Cargo ships continued to sail from Ukraine ports after Ukraine, Turkey and the UN told shipping companies they would still be safe to do so. Ukraine is producing 30% less grain because of the Russian invasion
However, the global price of wheat on the world's commodity exchanges jumped by over 5%, and maize prices jumped by 2%, on the first day of trading on food exchanges after Russia made its announcement. However, Ukraine's government says Russia has been delaying cargo ships heading to ports to pick up produce.
Now, Russia has said it is rejoining the agreement, having received assurances from Ukraine that it would not use the corridor to attack Russian forces. Under the deal, Russia has the right to inspect ships to make sure they aren't bringing cargo into Ukraine, such as weapons.
The prices of wheat and other foodstuffs fell back on global markets as a result. "Ukraine has accused it of being overly picky with the inspections," says Bridget Diakun, from the shipping journal Lloyds List.
Can Ukraine export food without using the Black Sea? "There is usually a queue of about 100 ships in the entrance to the Black Sea."
When Russia blockaded Ukraine's ports following it invasion in February, Ukraine tried to export as much produce as it could by land, using lorries and trains. Where are Ukraine's exports going?
The EU set up what it called "solidarity lanes," so that Ukrainian grain could be shipped from ports on the Baltic Sea, and also from the Romanian port of Constanta. Only about a quarter of Ukraine's food exports have been going to the world's poorest countries, according to UN figures:
However, a lack of road and rail capacity means that Ukraine cannot export more than about 10% of its grain by land. 47% has gone to "high-income countries" including Spain, Italy and the Netherlands
26% has gone to "upper-middle income countries" such as Turkey and China
27% has gone to "low and lower-middle income countries" like Egypt, Kenya and Sudan
Russian president Vladimir Putin has criticised Ukraine for not exporting more of its foodstuffs to developing countries.
However, the UN says the exports have benefited needy people around the world because they calmed international food markets, bringing food prices under control.
In 2022, more of half of the wheat grain procured by the United Nations World Food Programme came from Ukraine.
Between August 2022 and the end of the year, it sent 13 ships from Ukraine carrying a total of over 380,000 tonnes of wheat to Ethiopia, Yemen, Djibouti, Somalia and Afghanistan.
Pictures provide evidence of Russian grain theft
Correction 17 March 2023: A reference to the volume of the WFP's wheat grain procurement was amended.
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