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What is the Ukraine grain deal? What is the Ukraine grain deal and why is Russia threatening to pull out?
(about 1 month later)
A grain ship in the port of Chornomorsk on Ukraine's Black Sea coastA grain ship in the port of Chornomorsk on Ukraine's Black Sea coast
The deal that allows Ukraine to export grain across the Black Sea has been extended for two months. Russia is threatening not to extend its grain deal with Ukraine after 17 July, when it expires.
Thanks to the agreement, more than 30 million tonnes of grain and other foodstuffs have been shipped out of the Black Sea through a safe corridor. Over the past year, the deal has enabled Ukraine to export over 32 million tonnes of grain and other foods safely across the Black Sea despite the war.
Russia had been threatening to pull out of the deal, saying Western sanctions were hampering its own agricultural exports. Why is the grain deal needed?
Why was the grain deal needed? Ukraine is one of the world's largest exporters of sunflower, maize, wheat and barley.
Ukraine is a major exporter of sunflower, maize, wheat and barley. When Russia invaded in February 2022, its naval vessels blockaded Ukraine's ports, trapping some 20 million tonnes of grain. That sent global food prices soaring.
When Russia invaded in February 2022, its naval vessels blockaded Ukraine's ports, trapping some 20 million tonnes of grain. It also threatened food supplies to a number of Middle Eastern and African countries which rely heavily on Ukrainian grain.
That sent global food prices soaring. The UN warned that 44 million people in 38 countries were facing "emergency levels of hunger".
Food supplies were particularly threatened in Middle Eastern and African countries, which rely heavily on Ukrainian grain. Since the grain deal was signed in July 2022, world food prices have decreased by some 20%, according to the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization.
The UN says prices of staple foods rose across these regions by an average of 30%. It warned that 44 million people in 38 countries were facing "emergency levels of hunger".
"UN officials were worried about the Horn of Africa, where drought was already pushing countries towards famine conditions, and a lack of grain was making things worse," says Richard Gowan from The International Crisis Group, which works to prevent conflict.
Ukraine grain deal needed to feed world – WFP headUkraine grain deal needed to feed world – WFP head
How can the deal be extended? Why is Russia threatening to pull out of the grain deal?
The arrangement between Ukraine and Russia is meant to be extended for 120 days at a time. The deal is meant to be extended for 120 days at a time, but in March and May 2023, Russia agreed to extensions of only 60 days.
But in March, Russia agreed to extend it by 60 days only, and it did the same in May. Now it is threatening to pull out altogether.
It wants its own producers to be able to export more food and fertiliser to the rest of the world, but says Western sanctions are hampering them. It wants Western sanctions to be relaxed to enable its own producers to export more food and fertiliser.
There are no specific sanctions against Russian agricultural exports, but Moscow argues other restrictions mean international banks, insurers and shippers are reluctant to do business with its exporters. There are no specific sanctions against Russian agricultural exports, but Moscow argues that other sanctions deter international banks, shipping firms and insurers from doing business with its producers.
Russia previously withdrew from the deal in November 2022, accusing Ukraine of launching a "massive" drone attack on its fleet in Crimea from vessels in the safe shipping corridor. Russia temporarily withdrew from the deal in November 2022, accusing Ukraine of launching a "massive" drone attack on its fleet in Crimea from vessels in the safe shipping corridor in the Black Sea.
However, it rejoined a few days later. How does the grain deal work?
How does the grain corridor work? On 22 July 2022, Russia and Ukraine signed the Black Sea Grain Initiative - a deal brokered by the UN and Turkey.
On 22 July 2022, Russia and Ukraine signed the Black Sea Grain Initiative, with the support of the UN and Turkey. It lets cargo ships pass safely through the Black Sea, along a corridor 310 nautical miles long and three nautical miles wide, to and from the ports of Odesa, Chornomorsk and Yuzhny/Pivdennyi.
It let cargo ships pass safely through the Black Sea to and from the ports of Odesa, Chornomorsk and Yuzhny/Pivdennyi. The first grain shipments started in early August 2022.
The first grain shipments started in early August, using a corridor 310 nautical miles long and three nautical miles wide. How much grain has being exported?
According to the UN's Joint Coordination Centre (JCC), which oversees the scheme, more than 30 million tonnes of grain and other foodstuffs have been shipped from Ukraine, as well as fertiliser. The UN's Joint Coordination Centre, which runs the scheme, says that since it began, 32 million tonnes of foodstuffs have been shipped from Ukraine, as well as fertiliser.
These extra supplies were a major factor in lowering world food prices. In June 2023, Ukraine exported less than 1.4 million tonnes of foodstuffs. Nine months previously, it had been exporting about four million tonnes a month.
Prices started falling in spring 2022, ahead of an expected deal, and are now lower than they were before Russia's invasion. This is partly because Ukrainian farmers are producing less, due to the ongoing fighting across large parts of the country.
How much grain is being exported? However, Ukraine's government says Russia has also been delaying cargo ships heading to its ports to load with food products, by stopping them to inspect for weapons.
Ukraine is exporting 30% less food that it did before the Russian invasion, according to its agriculture ministry. "Ukraine has accused it of being overly picky with the inspections," says Bridget Diakun, from the shipping journal Lloyds List. "There is usually a queue of about 100 ships in the entrance to the Black Sea."
This is partly because farmers are producing less, due to the fighting across large parts of the country. Where do Ukraine's food exports go?
However, Ukraine's government says Russia has been delaying cargo ships heading to ports to pick up produce. The UN says that of all the food products Ukraine has exported under the grain deal:
Under the deal, Russia has the right to inspect ships to make sure they aren't bringing cargo into Ukraine, such as weapons. 47% have gone to "high-income countries" including Spain, Italy and the Netherlands
"Ukraine has accused it of being overly picky with the inspections," says Bridget Diakun, from the shipping journal Lloyds List. 26% have gone to "upper-middle income countries" such as Turkey and China
"There is usually a queue of about 100 ships in the entrance to the Black Sea." 27% have gone to "low and lower-middle income countries" such as Egypt, Kenya and Sudan
Where are Ukraine's exports going? Russia's President Vladimir Putin has criticised Ukraine for not exporting more to developing countries.
Only about a quarter of Ukraine's food exports have been going to the world's poorest countries, according to UN figures: But the UN says the grain deal has benefited people throughout the world because it has brought more food products onto the global market and therefore reduced global prices.
47% has gone to "high-income countries" including Spain, Italy and the Netherlands The UN says that under the grain deal, it has shipped 625,000 tonnes from Ukraine for humanitarian aid in Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Sudan and Yemen.
26% has gone to "upper-middle income countries" such as Turkey and China In 2022, more than half of the wheat grain bought by the UN's World Food Programme came from Ukraine.
27% has gone to "low and lower-middle income countries" like Egypt, Kenya and Sudan
Russian president Vladimir Putin has criticised Ukraine for not exporting more of its foodstuffs to developing countries.
However, the UN says the exports have benefited needy people around the world because they calmed international food markets, bringing food prices under control.
In 2022, more than half of the wheat grain procured by the United Nations World Food Programme came from Ukraine.
Between August 2022 and the end of the year, it sent 13 ships from Ukraine carrying a total of over 380,000 tonnes of wheat to Ethiopia, Yemen, Djibouti, Somalia and Afghanistan.
Pictures provide evidence of Russian grain theftPictures provide evidence of Russian grain theft
How have other eastern European countries been affected?
The EU lifted trade restrictions on Ukrainian food exports to member countries at the start of the war, to help Ukraine's economy. This caused a glut of grain and other food products in neighbouring east European countries.
The governments of five of these countries - Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, Romania and Bulgaria - have complained that the flood of cheap Ukrainian food products has hit their own farmers' incomes.
The EU has agreed to restrict Ukraine's food exports to these countries until 15 September.
Correction 17 March 2023: A reference to the volume of the WFP's wheat grain procurement was amended.Correction 17 March 2023: A reference to the volume of the WFP's wheat grain procurement was amended.
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