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| Why the US government might shut down and when it might happen | Why the US government might shut down and when it might happen |
| (about 3 hours later) | |
| Funding for the US government will be cut off at the end of Tuesday unless President Donald Trump's Republican Party can agree with opposition Democrats on a way forward on a spending bill. | Funding for the US government will be cut off at the end of Tuesday unless President Donald Trump's Republican Party can agree with opposition Democrats on a way forward on a spending bill. |
| That could bring some - but not all - US government services to a temporary halt. | That could bring some - but not all - US government services to a temporary halt. |
| Although budget confrontations are common in US politics, this spending fight is especially tense because Trump has spent the last nine months drastically cutting the size of the national government. | |
| Why might the US government shut down? | Why might the US government shut down? |
| Simply put: any shutdown will be the result of an inability of the two parties to come together and pass a bill funding government services into October and beyond. | Simply put: any shutdown will be the result of an inability of the two parties to come together and pass a bill funding government services into October and beyond. |
| The Republicans control both chambers of Congress, but in the Senate - or upper chamber - they are short of the 60 votes they need to pass a spending bill. | The Republicans control both chambers of Congress, but in the Senate - or upper chamber - they are short of the 60 votes they need to pass a spending bill. |
| Democrats, therefore, have some leverage in this case. They refuse to back a bill introduced by Republicans that they say will make it harder for Americans to afford healthcare, and have made this standoff primarily about advancing their healthcare policy goals. | Democrats, therefore, have some leverage in this case. They refuse to back a bill introduced by Republicans that they say will make it harder for Americans to afford healthcare, and have made this standoff primarily about advancing their healthcare policy goals. |
| They are calling for an extension of tax credits that make health insurance cheaper for millions of Americans - which are set to expire - and for a reversal of cuts to Medicaid that have been made by Trump. They also oppose spending cuts to the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) and National Institutes of Health (NIH). | They are calling for an extension of tax credits that make health insurance cheaper for millions of Americans - which are set to expire - and for a reversal of cuts to Medicaid that have been made by Trump. They also oppose spending cuts to the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) and National Institutes of Health (NIH). |
| A stopgap bill was earlier passed in the House, or lower chamber, but is yet to clear the Senate. | A stopgap bill was earlier passed in the House, or lower chamber, but is yet to clear the Senate. |
| When would the shutdown happen? | When would the shutdown happen? |
| If no deal is struck, at 00:01 EDT on Wednesday (05:01 BST), the US will have its first shutdown for nearly seven years. | If no deal is struck, at 00:01 EDT on Wednesday (05:01 BST), the US will have its first shutdown for nearly seven years. |
| The last time the government shuttered was at the end of 2018, during Trump's first term. Both sides are making last-ditch efforts trying to avoid a repeat. | The last time the government shuttered was at the end of 2018, during Trump's first term. Both sides are making last-ditch efforts trying to avoid a repeat. |
| On Monday, Trump met all four congressional leaders - the top Democrats in the House and Senate as well as their Republican counterparts. But there was little progress, and both sides appear to have dug deeper into their positions. | On Monday, Trump met all four congressional leaders - the top Democrats in the House and Senate as well as their Republican counterparts. But there was little progress, and both sides appear to have dug deeper into their positions. |
| Analysis: shutdown looms after Trump and Democrats fail to land deal | Analysis: shutdown looms after Trump and Democrats fail to land deal |
| What's the likelihood of a shutdown? | What's the likelihood of a shutdown? |
| At this point, prospects for some kind of government shutdown appear high, and Vice-President JD Vance said as much after Trump met the congressional leaders on Monday. | At this point, prospects for some kind of government shutdown appear high, and Vice-President JD Vance said as much after Trump met the congressional leaders on Monday. |
| On the Republican side, Trump administration officials have been unwilling, so far, to offer any substantive concessions. | On the Republican side, Trump administration officials have been unwilling, so far, to offer any substantive concessions. |
| They appear to believe Democrats, as the side making demands in exchange for keeping the government open, will bear the brunt of the public's blame – as they have in some past shutdowns. | They appear to believe Democrats, as the side making demands in exchange for keeping the government open, will bear the brunt of the public's blame – as they have in some past shutdowns. |
| Democrats, meanwhile, believe their push for preserving health-insurance subsidies is a popular one. | Democrats, meanwhile, believe their push for preserving health-insurance subsidies is a popular one. |
| What is more, their congressional leaders provoked the ire of left-wing activists for backing down during the last budget bout in March. Many Democrats are itching for a bigger fight this time around – and funding the government is one of the only places where their party has some leverage. | What is more, their congressional leaders provoked the ire of left-wing activists for backing down during the last budget bout in March. Many Democrats are itching for a bigger fight this time around – and funding the government is one of the only places where their party has some leverage. |
| What's different about the White House response this time? | What's different about the White House response this time? |
| What stands out about this current standoff is the position of Trump's team. | What stands out about this current standoff is the position of Trump's team. |
| In the past, long shutdowns were usually seen as politically dangerous, hampering both voters' everyday lives and the images of lawmakers and the president. | In the past, long shutdowns were usually seen as politically dangerous, hampering both voters' everyday lives and the images of lawmakers and the president. |
| But this time around, the Trump administration appears more than happy to shutter large parts of the US government for an extended period. In fact, officials have threatened to use a shutdown to identify "non-essential" workers who could then be permanently let go. | But this time around, the Trump administration appears more than happy to shutter large parts of the US government for an extended period. In fact, officials have threatened to use a shutdown to identify "non-essential" workers who could then be permanently let go. |
| 18 ways the 2019 shutdown hurt | 18 ways the 2019 shutdown hurt |
| Also, after previous shutdowns, government operations mostly returned to normal, with staff and spending levels largely going back to prior levels once the standoff is resolved. | Also, after previous shutdowns, government operations mostly returned to normal, with staff and spending levels largely going back to prior levels once the standoff is resolved. |
| Over the past nine months, however, the Trump administration has slashed spending and pushed workers out of their jobs, testing the boundaries of presidential power. A shutdown could allow the administration to accelerate its massive reductions. | Over the past nine months, however, the Trump administration has slashed spending and pushed workers out of their jobs, testing the boundaries of presidential power. A shutdown could allow the administration to accelerate its massive reductions. |
| What impacts would a shutdown have - including on national parks and social security? | What impacts would a shutdown have - including on national parks and social security? |
| Not all of government will shut down if Congress doesn't pass a spending bill. | Not all of government will shut down if Congress doesn't pass a spending bill. |
| Border protection, in-hospital medical care, law enforcement and air-traffic control would be expected to continue to operate during the stoppage. | Border protection, in-hospital medical care, law enforcement and air-traffic control would be expected to continue to operate during the stoppage. |
| While social security and Medicare cheques would still be sent out, benefit verification and card issuance could stop. | While social security and Medicare cheques would still be sent out, benefit verification and card issuance could stop. |
| Generally, in a shutdown, essential workers continue as normal - some of them without pay for the time being - but government employees deemed non-essential are temporarily put on unpaid leave. In the past, these workers have then been paid retrospectively. | Generally, in a shutdown, essential workers continue as normal - some of them without pay for the time being - but government employees deemed non-essential are temporarily put on unpaid leave. In the past, these workers have then been paid retrospectively. |
| That means that services like the food assistance programme, federally-funded pre-school, the issuing of student loans, food inspections, and operations at national parks are expected to be curtailed or closed. | That means that services like the food assistance programme, federally-funded pre-school, the issuing of student loans, food inspections, and operations at national parks are expected to be curtailed or closed. |
| There could also be travel delays if the stand-off drags on and unpaid workers stop showing up, and a prolonged shutdown could also have secondary impacts on the US economy. | There could also be travel delays if the stand-off drags on and unpaid workers stop showing up, and a prolonged shutdown could also have secondary impacts on the US economy. |
| How common are shutdowns in the US? | How common are shutdowns in the US? |
| Quite common over the last 50 years. | Quite common over the last 50 years. |
| There were three during Trump's first term, including the longest in history at 36 days, which ended in January 2019. That one was brought about by disagreements over funding a wall on the Mexico border. | There were three during Trump's first term, including the longest in history at 36 days, which ended in January 2019. That one was brought about by disagreements over funding a wall on the Mexico border. |
| The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated that it reduced economic output by about $11bn, including $3bn that it never regained. | The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated that it reduced economic output by about $11bn, including $3bn that it never regained. |
| Fellow Republican Ronald Reagan oversaw eight shutdowns during his presidency in the 1980s - though all were relatively brief. | Fellow Republican Ronald Reagan oversaw eight shutdowns during his presidency in the 1980s - though all were relatively brief. |
| Shutdowns over budgets are almost unique to US politics. | Shutdowns over budgets are almost unique to US politics. |
| Under the US system, the different branches of government have to reach an agreement on spending plans before they can become law. | Under the US system, the different branches of government have to reach an agreement on spending plans before they can become law. |
| In most countries, budget votes become votes of confidence in the government itself. But because the US has equal and often divided branches of government, that is not the case. | In most countries, budget votes become votes of confidence in the government itself. But because the US has equal and often divided branches of government, that is not the case. |
| Why government shutdowns only seem to happen in the US | Why government shutdowns only seem to happen in the US |