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Time runs short for climate deal Time runs short for climate deal
(40 minutes later)
  By Richard Black Environment correspondent, BBC News, Durban   By Richard Black Environment correspondent, BBC News, Durban
Agreement on new measures to combat global warming appears within reach at the UN climate talks in South Africa. UN climate talks may be running out of time to make an agreement.
But with talks already into an extra day, there were warnings that ministers may have to leave - or may choose to leave - before signing off the package. Many hours into an unscheduled extra day, some ministers have already left, and the South African hosts have yet to show a strategy for closing the deal.
Draft documents issued overnight appear to address the concerns of all parties. Further delay was caused by the distribution of a fake document purporting to be an official text.
If they are adopted when official negotiations re-commence, a process leading to a new global deal by 2015 will begin early next year. The real texts would see a process leading to a new global emission-cutting deal covering all countries begin next year, finishing by 2015.
But there is no timing for those official sessions. They would see EU countries and perhaps other developed nations putting their current emission-cutting pledges under the legally-binding Kyoto Protocol.
Delegate after delegate says time is slipping away, and there are repeated mutterings about a lack of urgency and strategy from the South African hosts. The package is backed by the EU, and by the Alliance of Small Island States (Aosis) and the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) bloc, which together represent more than 70 of the world's poorest and most climate-vulnerable nations.
"The concern now is that time is extremely short," warned EU climate Commissioner Connie Hedegaard. But it is unclear whether the BASIC group of Brazil, South Africa, India and China, or the US, can live with the ambition they contain for curbing emissions.
What delayed matters further was a fake text issued apparently by the South African presidency, after consultation with the EU, US, Brazil, India and China. It is unclear also whether conclusion can be reached before real-world concerns such as delegates' flights and use of the convention centre force a closure.
It contained weaker targets and longer timescales, and was initially greeted with consternation by the EU, the Alliance of Small Island States (Aosis) and the Least Developed Countries (LDCs), which have been pressing hardest for a strong deal. While ministers from richer nations including the UK have already changed flights, not everyone is able to do so; and there is even talk that the meeting could become inquorate.
"There's so much clarity about the crisis - when even the International Energy Agency says 'you've got five years', it couldn't be clearer," said Tim Gore, senior policy adviser with Oxfam.
"And if they can't find a way to solve it with everyone in the room, they have to do it with those that want to, leaving the US behind."
Consternation and fury
Delegate after delegate says time is slipping away, and there are repeated mutterings about a lack of urgency and strategy from the hosts.
What delayed matters further was a fake text issued apparently by the South African presidency after consultation with the EU, US, Brazil, India and China.
It contained weaker targets and longer timescales, and was initially greeted with consternation by the EU, Aosis and the LDCs, which have been pressing hardest for a strong deal.
The consternation turned to fury when it was discovered that the text was fake. European officials said it appeared to be a deliberate attempt to stall negotiations.The consternation turned to fury when it was discovered that the text was fake. European officials said it appeared to be a deliberate attempt to stall negotiations.
The perpetrator has not been identified. The perpetrator has not been identified. But it appears likely that the aim was to fracture the ad-hoc partnership between the EU and its developing world allies.
The real draft, meanwhile, proposes that the "roadmap" towards a new deal encompassing all countries would begin in the New Year and complete by 2015 at the latest.The real draft, meanwhile, proposes that the "roadmap" towards a new deal encompassing all countries would begin in the New Year and complete by 2015 at the latest.
That has been the central demand of the European Union and scores of countries vulnerable to climate impacts, including the Alliance of Small Island States (Aosis) and the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) bloc. If accepted, it would also spell out - for the first time in the UN climate process - that there is a mismatch, a gap, between the pledges countries have already made on cutting emissions and the cuts necessary to keep global temperatures within 2C of pre-industrial levels.
They were also pressing for the new agreement to be legally-binding, but the draft stops short of specifying a legal form - a concession to the US, which Aosis is sure to challenge.
Climate fund
If accepted, the agreement would also spell out - for the first time in the UN climate process - that there is a mismatch, a gap, between the pledges countries have already made on cutting emissions and the cuts necessary to keep global temperatures within 2C of pre-industrial levels.
Developing countries have insisted that EU nations must put their existing pledges on restricting emissions under the Kyoto Protocol; and this is also in the drafts.
Climate change glossary Select a term to learn more:
Adaptation Action that helps cope with the effects of climate change - for example construction of barriers to protect against rising sea levels, or conversion to crops capable of surviving high temperatures and drought. Glossary in full		 Climate change glossary Select a term to learn more:
Adaptation Action that helps cope with the effects of climate change - for example construction of barriers to protect against rising sea levels, or conversion to crops capable of surviving high temperatures and drought. Glossary in full
Developing countries have insisted that EU nations must put their existing pledges on restricting emissions under the Kyoto Protocol; and this is also in the drafts.
That does not mean tougher cuts in Europe in the near future, but it would put EU pledges under an international legal framework.That does not mean tougher cuts in Europe in the near future, but it would put EU pledges under an international legal framework.
Agreement on managing the Green Climate Fund, which will eventually gather and disburse finance amounting to $100bn per year to help poor countries develop cleanly and adapt to climate impacts, also appears within reach.Agreement on managing the Green Climate Fund, which will eventually gather and disburse finance amounting to $100bn per year to help poor countries develop cleanly and adapt to climate impacts, also appears within reach.
Official negotiations are likely to run through the day, and major objections may yet be raised.
There is also a fear that some ministers may decide it is convenient to leave without concluding negotiations.
Aosis and the LDCs have repeatedly accused India of being one of the hard-line blockers alongside the US and China.Aosis and the LDCs have repeatedly accused India of being one of the hard-line blockers alongside the US and China.
But India's Environment Minister Jayanthi Natarajan said this was not the case.But India's Environment Minister Jayanthi Natarajan said this was not the case.
She said her concern had been to understand what the EU "roadmap" to a new agreement involved.She said her concern had been to understand what the EU "roadmap" to a new agreement involved.
"I don't find myself at odds [with Aosis] at all, I think I share their concerns - they want quick action, we want quick action," she told BBC News."I don't find myself at odds [with Aosis] at all, I think I share their concerns - they want quick action, we want quick action," she told BBC News.
"The fact of the matter is there should be very quick action, and my very quick action is that want a review of what Annex One countries (the traditional developed nations) have done and we want to know how far they've gone, and I'm willing to listen to what Aosis says.""The fact of the matter is there should be very quick action, and my very quick action is that want a review of what Annex One countries (the traditional developed nations) have done and we want to know how far they've gone, and I'm willing to listen to what Aosis says."
But her German counterpart Norbert Roettgen said India was part of a blocking trinity.But her German counterpart Norbert Roettgen said India was part of a blocking trinity.
"Only a very few countries stand in the way of an agreement here," he said."Only a very few countries stand in the way of an agreement here," he said.
"These are the main emitters, as been the case throughout the week - the US, China, and India.""These are the main emitters, as been the case throughout the week - the US, China, and India."
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