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UN climate talks near chaotic end UN climate talks near chaotic end
(40 minutes later)
  By Richard Black Environment correspondent, BBC News, Durban   By Richard Black Environment correspondent, BBC News, Durban
At UN climate talks in South Africa, the host government says agreement has been reached on many of the key issues. India is emerging as the country leading opposition to a strong binding deal on climate change at the annual UN talks in South Africa.
But some delegations are very unhappy with elements of the draft text drawn up by the hosts, in particular on the "roadmap" to a binding global deal. Other important countries including the US are prepared to negotiate an emission-curbing "legal instrument" by 2015, taking effect by 2020.
The EU and many small, poor nations want a legally binding deal that will curb emissions well before 2020. India is holding out for a start after 2020, and the weaker "legal outcome".
But the draft text talks only of curbs after 2020, and does not specify a legally binding outcome. The EU and large blocs of countries vulnerable to climate impacts say this is a "red line" issue.
They are concerned that it would not be early enough or binding enough to prevent dangerous impacts, such as sea level rise that could eventually make low-lying islands uninhabitable.
"The latest text is not acceptable to us and to many other parties," said UK Climate Secretary Chris Huhne."The latest text is not acceptable to us and to many other parties," said UK Climate Secretary Chris Huhne.
"The UK, as part of the EU, will continue to push for the most credible deal that meets the needs of the science.""The UK, as part of the EU, will continue to push for the most credible deal that meets the needs of the science."
The new draft text appears to go back towards the position of the few big, important countries opposing a strong deal - the US, Brazil, China, and India among them. The latest draft waters down several aspects of a version released earlier in the day, and brings it closer to the original positions of the Basic group - Brazil, South Africa, India and China - and the US.
Many other issues are tied up in long documents before delegates, who have embarked on a a series of official sessions at which all the texts must be approved. Many other issues are tied up in the long documents now before delegates, who are midway through a series of official sessions at which all the texts must be approved.
If they cannot reach agreement, there is a real prospect of talks collapsing. If they cannot reach agreement on the key "roadmap" points, there is a real prospect of talks ending in impasse.
'Kyoto gutted''Kyoto gutted'
"The deal, as it stands, is due to be implemented 'from 2020'," said Ruth Davis, policy adviser for Greenpeace UK."The deal, as it stands, is due to be implemented 'from 2020'," said Ruth Davis, policy adviser for Greenpeace UK.
"That leaves almost no room for increasing the depth of carbon cuts in this crucial decade when scientists say we need emissions to peak."That leaves almost no room for increasing the depth of carbon cuts in this crucial decade when scientists say we need emissions to peak.
Climate change glossary Select a term to learn more:
Adaptation Action that helps cope with the effects of climate change - for example construction of barriers to protect against rising sea levels, or conversion to crops capable of surviving high temperatures and drought. Glossary in full		 Climate change glossary Select a term to learn more:
Adaptation Action that helps cope with the effects of climate change - for example construction of barriers to protect against rising sea levels, or conversion to crops capable of surviving high temperatures and drought. Glossary in full
"So we could still be facing the prospect of the global climate regime amounting to nothing more than a voluntary deal put off for a decade.""So we could still be facing the prospect of the global climate regime amounting to nothing more than a voluntary deal put off for a decade."
The EU itself came in for criticism over its stance on the Kyoto Protocol (KP), with delegates from the Latin American Alba group urging it to increase the depth of its carbon cuts and accept more legally binding language than is currently in the text. India's stance is that the "roadmap" breaks down the barrier erected between developed and developing countries established when the UN climate convention was set up in 1992.
Since then, only members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) - the world's most developed countries - and former Soviet states have been required to cut their emissions.
But the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) bloc, the Alliance of Small Island States (Aosis) and the EU say climate change cannot be curbed without eventually requiring cuts from all, as per-capita emissions from countries such as China are approaching western levels.
The EU itself came in for criticism over its stance on the Kyoto Protocol (KP), with delegates from the Latin American Alba group urging it to increase the depth of its carbon cuts and accept more legally-binding language than is currently in the text.
"This guts Kyoto," said Paul Oquist Kelley, minister secretary for national policy for Nicaragua."This guts Kyoto," said Paul Oquist Kelley, minister secretary for national policy for Nicaragua.
"And the preamble talks about a 'global response', which means completely the opposite of 'common but differentiated responsibilities'.""And the preamble talks about a 'global response', which means completely the opposite of 'common but differentiated responsibilities'."
Dr Kelley also condemned developed nations for failing to deliver finance they had promised at the Copenhagen summit two years ago. Dr Kelley also condemned developed nations for failing to deliver finance that they promised at the Copenhagen summit two years ago.
Small-group meetings are continuing on the main points, though it is hard to see what can be achieved, given the incompatibility of the basic positions. Small-group meetings are continuing on the roadmap and a few other issues, though it is hard to see what can be achieved, given the incompatibility of the basic positions.
An added complication is that some ministers have already left, with the meeting running more than a day beyond its scheduled close.An added complication is that some ministers have already left, with the meeting running more than a day beyond its scheduled close.
The South African hosts have come in for a lot of criticism over a perceived lack of strategy and urgency.The South African hosts have come in for a lot of criticism over a perceived lack of strategy and urgency.
Forgery furyForgery fury
What delayed matters further was a fake text issued apparently by the South African presidency after consultation with the EU, US, Brazil, India and China.What delayed matters further was a fake text issued apparently by the South African presidency after consultation with the EU, US, Brazil, India and China.
It contained weaker targets and longer timescales, and was initially greeted with consternation by the EU, the Alliance of Small Island States (Aosis) and the least developed countries (LDCs), which have been pressing hardest for a strong deal. It contained weaker targets and longer timescales, and was initially greeted with consternation by the EU, Aosis and the LDCs, which have been pressing hardest for a strong deal.
The consternation turned to fury when it was discovered that the text was fake. European officials said it appeared to be a deliberate attempt to stall negotiations.The consternation turned to fury when it was discovered that the text was fake. European officials said it appeared to be a deliberate attempt to stall negotiations.
The perpetrator has not been identified. But it appears likely that the aim was to fracture the ad hoc partnership between the EU and its developing world allies. The perpetrator has not been identified. But it appears likely that the aim was to fracture the ad-hoc partnership between the EU and its developing world allies.
The real earlier draft, released on Saturday morning, proposed that the "roadmap" towards a new deal encompassing all countries would begin in the New Year and complete by 2015 at the latest, to come into force at an unspecified later stage. Agreement looks within reach on several other aspects, including a management framework for the Green Climate Fund, which will eventually gather and disburse finance amounting to $100bn per year to help poor countries develop cleanly and adapt to climate impacts.
If also spelled out the fact that there is a mismatch, a gap, between the pledges countries have already made on cutting emissions and the cuts necessary to keep global temperatures within 2C of pre-industrial levels.
Agreement on managing the Green Climate Fund, which will eventually gather and disburse finance amounting to $100bn (£85bn) per year to help poor countries develop cleanly and adapt to climate impacts, also appears within reach.
There also appears to be a draft accord on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD).There also appears to be a draft accord on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD).
But with disagreement manifesting itself in the halls, everything could be held hostage to the main disagreement on the roadmap.But with disagreement manifesting itself in the halls, everything could be held hostage to the main disagreement on the roadmap.
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