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| London mayor election: Johnson four points ahead of Livingstone in poll | London mayor election: Johnson four points ahead of Livingstone in poll |
| (40 minutes later) | |
| Ken Livingstone is trailing Boris Johnson by four points in the contest for London mayor, according to a ComRes poll for the Evening Standard, London Tonight and LBC. | |
| The survey suggests the Labour candidate has 46% support compared with 50% for his Conservative counterpart on a second round of voting, with no winner after the first round. | The survey suggests the Labour candidate has 46% support compared with 50% for his Conservative counterpart on a second round of voting, with no winner after the first round. |
| The deficit is probably recoverable in the final month of the campaign although some of the underlying figures look ominous for Livingstone as he prepares to launch his manifesto on Wednesday. | |
| His camp reported that it had been told by ComRes that the sample was wrong and Johnson's lead is actually six points. | |
| In a previous ComRes poll Livingstone was two points behind although a YouGov poll put him eight points behind. Comparing the results of different pollsters can be misleading. | |
| Livingstone has faced charges of hypocrisy for putting some of his money through a tax efficient company and has become embroiled in a highly personal row in a lift with Johnson over the issue that led to mutual charges of hypocrisy. | Livingstone has faced charges of hypocrisy for putting some of his money through a tax efficient company and has become embroiled in a highly personal row in a lift with Johnson over the issue that led to mutual charges of hypocrisy. |
| He is also struggling because the London media is becoming increasingly clear in its support for Johnson, after previously being neutral. | He is also struggling because the London media is becoming increasingly clear in its support for Johnson, after previously being neutral. |
| The poll found 51% of people interviewed were less likely to vote for Livingstone after the row over his income tax. This compares with just 44% of those interviewed before. | The poll found 51% of people interviewed were less likely to vote for Livingstone after the row over his income tax. This compares with just 44% of those interviewed before. |
| Overall, before the row in the lift the two main rivals were neck and neck – each polling 48% but afterwards the mayor opened up a large lead of 58% to 36%. | Overall, before the row in the lift the two main rivals were neck and neck – each polling 48% but afterwards the mayor opened up a large lead of 58% to 36%. |
| The sample size for these two findings is not yet available. | The sample size for these two findings is not yet available. |
| In inner London, Livingstone is ahead by 58% compared with Johnson's 38% but his rating has shrunk from 10 points since January when he was on 68%. Much will depend on the propensity of voters in inner and outer London to turn out to vote. Labour claims to have a better "get out the vote" operation. | In inner London, Livingstone is ahead by 58% compared with Johnson's 38% but his rating has shrunk from 10 points since January when he was on 68%. Much will depend on the propensity of voters in inner and outer London to turn out to vote. Labour claims to have a better "get out the vote" operation. |
| Johnson is still well ahead in outer London, where he is polling 57% to his rival's 39%. Johnson appears to be outperforming the Conservatives among his voters, with 28% saying they liked the mayor but not his party, according to the survey. | Johnson is still well ahead in outer London, where he is polling 57% to his rival's 39%. Johnson appears to be outperforming the Conservatives among his voters, with 28% saying they liked the mayor but not his party, according to the survey. |
| Livingstone continues to be less popular than his party. Just 14% of his backers said they liked him but not Labour, while 17% said it was the other way round. Much of his deficit relates to willingness of older voters to back Johnson, even though Livingstone is older of the main two candidates. | Livingstone continues to be less popular than his party. Just 14% of his backers said they liked him but not Labour, while 17% said it was the other way round. Much of his deficit relates to willingness of older voters to back Johnson, even though Livingstone is older of the main two candidates. |
| Johnson is more trusted among 32% of respondents to deliver on his promises, while just 26% trust his main rival. More than a quarter of Londoners trust neither candidate. | Johnson is more trusted among 32% of respondents to deliver on his promises, while just 26% trust his main rival. More than a quarter of Londoners trust neither candidate. |
| Livingstone is more popular than Johnson among Lib Dem voters at the last general election by 46% to 33% | Livingstone is more popular than Johnson among Lib Dem voters at the last general election by 46% to 33% |
| This will be a concern for Johnson's campaign given the historical importance of second preference votes. | This will be a concern for Johnson's campaign given the historical importance of second preference votes. |
| The poll suggests that in the first round of voting 46% of Londoners would back Johnson, 41% Livingstone, 6% Liberal Democrat Brian Paddick and 4% Green Jenny Jones. The independent candidate Siobhan Benita is also standing as well as a Ukip and BNP candidate. | The poll suggests that in the first round of voting 46% of Londoners would back Johnson, 41% Livingstone, 6% Liberal Democrat Brian Paddick and 4% Green Jenny Jones. The independent candidate Siobhan Benita is also standing as well as a Ukip and BNP candidate. |