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| London mayor election: Johnson six points ahead of Livingstone in poll | London mayor election: Johnson six points ahead of Livingstone in poll |
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| Ken Livingstone's bid to wrest back the London mayoralty from Boris Johnson is being jeopardised by the row over his tax arrangements, according to the latest poll which shows the Labour mayoral candidate is trailing six percentage points behind his Conservative rival. | Ken Livingstone's bid to wrest back the London mayoralty from Boris Johnson is being jeopardised by the row over his tax arrangements, according to the latest poll which shows the Labour mayoral candidate is trailing six percentage points behind his Conservative rival. |
| A ComRes poll for the Evening Standard, London Tonight and LBC, suggests the Conservative candidate has 53% support compared with 47% for his Labour counterpart on a second round of voting in an election conducted under the supplementary vote system, with polling showing no winner after the first round in a closely fought contest between the two leading contenders. | A ComRes poll for the Evening Standard, London Tonight and LBC, suggests the Conservative candidate has 53% support compared with 47% for his Labour counterpart on a second round of voting in an election conducted under the supplementary vote system, with polling showing no winner after the first round in a closely fought contest between the two leading contenders. |
| With just over three weeks to go until polling day, Johnson has widened his lead despite the unveiling of an unpopular budget by the Conservative chancellor George Osborne last month, which confirmed that the 50p top rate of tax would be scrapped next year – something which Johnson has strongly advocated. | With just over three weeks to go until polling day, Johnson has widened his lead despite the unveiling of an unpopular budget by the Conservative chancellor George Osborne last month, which confirmed that the 50p top rate of tax would be scrapped next year – something which Johnson has strongly advocated. |
| The findings give Johnson a 4% swing on the last Comres poll in mid-January when Livingstone had enjoyed a narrow two percentage point lead, indicating that his popular pledge to cut fares by 7% was playing well with Londoners just after they were slapped by transport fare rises averaging 5.6% under Johnson's mayoral watch. | The findings give Johnson a 4% swing on the last Comres poll in mid-January when Livingstone had enjoyed a narrow two percentage point lead, indicating that his popular pledge to cut fares by 7% was playing well with Londoners just after they were slapped by transport fare rises averaging 5.6% under Johnson's mayoral watch. |
| Since January, successive polling conducted by YouGov has showed Livingstone trailing, with the change of fortunes suggesting claims that Livingstone has avoided tax by using a company, Silveta Ltd, to channel his media earnings, has played badly with voters at a time when tax avoidance has surfaced as a key issue in national politics, with Osborne vowing to clamp down on tax. | Since January, successive polling conducted by YouGov has showed Livingstone trailing, with the change of fortunes suggesting claims that Livingstone has avoided tax by using a company, Silveta Ltd, to channel his media earnings, has played badly with voters at a time when tax avoidance has surfaced as a key issue in national politics, with Osborne vowing to clamp down on tax. |
| Livingstone's dilemma is underlined in the ComRes poll, conducted over three days and spanning the period when Johnson rounded on his Labour rival in a lift and called him a "fucking liar" over an ongoing row between the two men over their personal tax payments. The incident culminated in the unprecedented move of four mayoral candidates agreeing to publish their earnings and tax arrangements, prompted by Green party mayoral candidate Jenny Jones. | Livingstone's dilemma is underlined in the ComRes poll, conducted over three days and spanning the period when Johnson rounded on his Labour rival in a lift and called him a "fucking liar" over an ongoing row between the two men over their personal tax payments. The incident culminated in the unprecedented move of four mayoral candidates agreeing to publish their earnings and tax arrangements, prompted by Green party mayoral candidate Jenny Jones. |
| Londoners interviewed before the lift incident on Tuesday 3 April were split 50-50 between Livingstone and Johnson when other candidates were stripped out. But those surveyed afterwards divided 60-40 in favour of the Conservative candidate. However, the sample size of those surveyed was small, with the proportion of voters identifying themselves as Conservative voters much larger, casting doubt on how far the incident shifted opinions. | Londoners interviewed before the lift incident on Tuesday 3 April were split 50-50 between Livingstone and Johnson when other candidates were stripped out. But those surveyed afterwards divided 60-40 in favour of the Conservative candidate. However, the sample size of those surveyed was small, with the proportion of voters identifying themselves as Conservative voters much larger, casting doubt on how far the incident shifted opinions. |
| Almost half of those polled, 48% also said they are "less likely" to trust Livingstone following allegations of his tax arrangements and after media allegations that he ran up large expenses while mayor. | Almost half of those polled, 48% also said they are "less likely" to trust Livingstone following allegations of his tax arrangements and after media allegations that he ran up large expenses while mayor. |
| The findings will have made grim reading for Livingstone, who hit the capital's streets on Tuesday to highlight his flagship fare cuts promise to Londoners, and prepared to launch his manifesto on Wednesday, accompanied by Ed Miliband, the Labour party leader. | The findings will have made grim reading for Livingstone, who hit the capital's streets on Tuesday to highlight his flagship fare cuts promise to Londoners, and prepared to launch his manifesto on Wednesday, accompanied by Ed Miliband, the Labour party leader. |
| Tony Travers, director of the Greater London group at the London School of Economics, said: "Ken is now in a position where he really needs to restart the campaign. He can't get away from that issue altogether and he is not to be allowed to because he needs to get a new line on it. He needs to kill off the tax story somehow, and I am afraid to say it is not relevant or a distraction won't wash." | Tony Travers, director of the Greater London group at the London School of Economics, said: "Ken is now in a position where he really needs to restart the campaign. He can't get away from that issue altogether and he is not to be allowed to because he needs to get a new line on it. He needs to kill off the tax story somehow, and I am afraid to say it is not relevant or a distraction won't wash." |
| In inner London, Livingstone is ahead on 60%, compared with Johnson's 40%, but this represents a drop since January when the Labour candidate was on 68%. Much will depend on the propensity of voters in inner and outer London to turn out to vote. Labour claims to have a better "get out the vote" operation. | In inner London, Livingstone is ahead on 60%, compared with Johnson's 40%, but this represents a drop since January when the Labour candidate was on 68%. Much will depend on the propensity of voters in inner and outer London to turn out to vote. Labour claims to have a better "get out the vote" operation. |
| Johnson is still well ahead in outer London, polling 60% to his rival's 40%. Johnson appears to be outperforming the Conservative party as a whole among his voters, with 28% of those polled saying they liked the mayor but not his party. | Johnson is still well ahead in outer London, polling 60% to his rival's 40%. Johnson appears to be outperforming the Conservative party as a whole among his voters, with 28% of those polled saying they liked the mayor but not his party. |
| Livingstone, on the other hand, seems less popular than his party, with just 14% of his backers saying they liked him but not Labour, while 17% said it was the other way round. | Livingstone, on the other hand, seems less popular than his party, with just 14% of his backers saying they liked him but not Labour, while 17% said it was the other way round. |
| Johnson is more trusted among 32% of respondents to deliver on his promises, while just 26% trust his main rival more. More than a quarter of Londoners do not trust either candidate. | |
| ComRes chair Andrew Hawkins, said: "Ken Livingstone has been strongly criticised in the past few months and the factors which have done the most harm to him electorally have doubtless been those concerning his tax affairs and mayoral expenses. Ken has an awful lot of ground to make up, and electorally the odds are really beginning to be stacked against him. His core support is less likely than Boris's to vote and he lacks a sufficiently strong lead among his natural supporters at the lower end of the income spectrum and across inner London. Boris's greatest weakness now is the complacency of his supporters who may see him as the inevitable winner and not bother to vote." | ComRes chair Andrew Hawkins, said: "Ken Livingstone has been strongly criticised in the past few months and the factors which have done the most harm to him electorally have doubtless been those concerning his tax affairs and mayoral expenses. Ken has an awful lot of ground to make up, and electorally the odds are really beginning to be stacked against him. His core support is less likely than Boris's to vote and he lacks a sufficiently strong lead among his natural supporters at the lower end of the income spectrum and across inner London. Boris's greatest weakness now is the complacency of his supporters who may see him as the inevitable winner and not bother to vote." |
| Among Lib Dem voters at the last general election, Livingstone is more popular than Johnson by 55% to 45% – a concern for Johnson's campaign, given the historical importance of second preference votes. | Among Lib Dem voters at the last general election, Livingstone is more popular than Johnson by 55% to 45% – a concern for Johnson's campaign, given the historical importance of second preference votes. |
| The poll suggests that in the first round of voting, 46% of Londoners would back Johnson, 41% Livingstone, 6% Liberal Democrat Brian Paddick and 4% Green party candidate Jenny Jones. The independent candidate Siobhan Benita is also standing, as are Ukip and BNP candidates. | The poll suggests that in the first round of voting, 46% of Londoners would back Johnson, 41% Livingstone, 6% Liberal Democrat Brian Paddick and 4% Green party candidate Jenny Jones. The independent candidate Siobhan Benita is also standing, as are Ukip and BNP candidates. |