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London mayor election: Johnson six points ahead of Livingstone in poll London mayor election: Johnson six points ahead of Livingstone in poll
(about 4 hours later)
Ken Livingstone is trailing Boris Johnson by six percentage points in the contest for London mayor, according to a ComRes poll for the Evening Standard, London Tonight and LBC. Ken Livingstone's bid to wrest back the London mayoralty from Boris Johnson is being jeopardised by the row over his tax arrangements, according to the latest poll which shows the Labour mayoral candidate is trailing six percentage points behind his Conservative rival.
The survey suggests the Conservative candidate has 53% support compared with 47% for his Labour counterpart on a second round of voting, with no winner after the first round. A ComRes poll for the Evening Standard, London Tonight and LBC, suggests the Conservative candidate has 53% support compared with 47% for his Labour counterpart on a second round of voting in an election conducted under the supplementary vote system, with polling showing no winner after the first round in a closely fought contest between the two leading contenders.
The deficit is probably recoverable in the final month of the campaign although some of the underlying figures look ominous for Livingstone as he prepares to launch his manifesto on Wednesday. With just over three weeks to go until polling day, Johnson has widened his lead despite the unveiling of an unpopular budget by the Conservative chancellor George Osborne last month, which confirmed that the 50p top rate of tax would be scrapped next year – something which Johnson has strongly advocated.
The extent of Johnson's lead was revealed after ComRes released revised figures for the poll. They had initially given Johnson a 50% to 46% advantage. Some other data was also amended after the polling company said there had been a weighting error. The findings give Johnson a 4% swing on the last Comres poll in mid-January when Livingstone had enjoyed a narrow two percentage point lead, indicating that his popular pledge to cut fares by 7% was playing well with Londoners just after they were slapped by transport fare rises averaging 5.6% under Johnson's mayoral watch.
In a previous ComRes poll, Livingstone was two points ahead, although a YouGov poll put him eight points behind. Since January, successive polling conducted by YouGov has showed Livingstone trailing, with the change of fortunes suggesting claims that Livingstone has avoided tax by using a company, Silveta Ltd, to channel his media earnings, has played badly with voters at a time when tax avoidance has surfaced as a key issue in national politics, with Osborne vowing to clamp down on tax.
Livingstone and Johnson have rowed over their personal tax payments, an argument that became highly personal when the two clashed in a lift over mutual accusations of hypocrisy. Livingstone's dilemma is underlined in the ComRes poll, conducted over three days and spanning the period when Johnson rounded on his Labour rival in a lift and called him a "fucking liar" over an ongoing row between the two men over their personal tax payments. The incident culminated in the unprecedented move of four mayoral candidates agreeing to publish their earnings and tax arrangements, prompted by Green party mayoral candidate Jenny Jones.
The poll found 48% of people interviewed were less likely to vote for Livingstone following the row. Londoners interviewed before the lift incident on Tuesday 3 April were split 50-50 between Livingstone and Johnson when other candidates were stripped out. But those surveyed afterwards divided 60-40 in favour of the Conservative candidate. However, the sample size of those surveyed was small, with the proportion of voters identifying themselves as Conservative voters much larger, casting doubt on how far the incident shifted opinions.
Overall, before the set-to in the lift the two main rivals were neck and neck – each polling 48% – but afterwards the mayor opened up a large lead of 58% to 36%. Almost half of those polled, 48% also said they are "less likely" to trust Livingstone following allegations of his tax arrangements and after media allegations that he ran up large expenses while mayor.
The sample size for these two findings was not available. The findings will have made grim reading for Livingstone, who hit the capital's streets on Tuesday to highlight his flagship fare cuts promise to Londoners, and prepared to launch his manifesto on Wednesday, accompanied by Ed Miliband, the Labour party leader.
In inner London, Livingstone is ahead on 60%, compared with Johnson's 40%, but his rating has shrunk since January when he was on 68%. Much will depend on the propensity of voters in inner and outer London to turn out to vote. Labour claims to have a better "get out the vote" operation. Tony Travers, director of the Greater London group at the London School of Economics, said: "Ken is now in a position where he really needs to restart the campaign. He can't get away from that issue altogether and he is not to be allowed to because he needs to get a new line on it. He needs to kill off the tax story somehow, and I am afraid to say it is not relevant or a distraction won't wash."
Johnson is still well ahead in outer London, where he is polling 60% to his rival's 40%. Johnson appears to be outperforming the Conservative party as a whole among his voters, with 28% saying they liked the mayor but not his party, according to the survey. In inner London, Livingstone is ahead on 60%, compared with Johnson's 40%, but this represents a drop since January when the Labour candidate was on 68%. Much will depend on the propensity of voters in inner and outer London to turn out to vote. Labour claims to have a better "get out the vote" operation.
Livingstone, on the other hand, continues to be less popular than his party. Just 14% of his backers said they liked him but not Labour, while 17% said it was the other way round. Much of his deficit relates to the willingness of older voters to back Johnson, even though Livingstone is the older of the two main candidates. Johnson is still well ahead in outer London, polling 60% to his rival's 40%. Johnson appears to be outperforming the Conservative party as a whole among his voters, with 28% of those polled saying they liked the mayor but not his party.
Johnson is more trusted among 32% of respondents to deliver on his promises, while just 26% trust his main rival more. More than a quarter of Londoners trust neither candidate. Livingstone, on the other hand, seems less popular than his party, with just 14% of his backers saying they liked him but not Labour, while 17% said it was the other way round.
Among Lib Dem voters at the last general election, Livingstone is more popular than Johnson by 46% to 33%. Johnson is more trusted among 32% of respondents to deliver on his promises, while just 26% trust his main rival more. More an a quarter of Londoners trust neither candidate.
This will be a concern for Johnson's campaign, given the historical importance of second preference votes. ComRes chair Andrew Hawkins, said: "Ken Livingstone has been strongly criticised in the past few months and the factors which have done the most harm to him electorally have doubtless been those concerning his tax affairs and mayoral expenses. Ken has an awful lot of ground to make up, and electorally the odds are really beginning to be stacked against him. His core support is less likely than Boris's to vote and he lacks a sufficiently strong lead among his natural supporters at the lower end of the income spectrum and across inner London. Boris's greatest weakness now is the complacency of his supporters who may see him as the inevitable winner and not bother to vote."
The poll suggests that in the first round of voting, 46% of Londoners would back Johnson, 41% Livingstone, 6% Liberal Democrat Brian Paddick and 4% Green party candidate Jenny Jones. The independent candidate Siobhan Benita is also standing, as well as Ukip and BNP candidates. Among Lib Dem voters at the last general election, Livingstone is more popular than Johnson by 55% to 45% – a concern for Johnson's campaign, given the historical importance of second preference votes.
The poll suggests that in the first round of voting, 46% of Londoners would back Johnson, 41% Livingstone, 6% Liberal Democrat Brian Paddick and 4% Green party candidate Jenny Jones. The independent candidate Siobhan Benita is also standing, as are Ukip and BNP candidates.