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OECD releases report on US economy – live coverage OECD releases report on US economy – live coverage
(40 minutes later)
10am: The OECD is about to release a report on the US economy. We'll have full details shortly. Meanwhile here's a summary of today's poltical develoments from Ryan Devereaux. 10.48am: Some actual good economic news: house prices are continuing their recovery nationally, something that will eventually lift a big burden off the US economy and households.
The fallout from yesterday's supreme court rulings continues. Police in Arizona have expressed concern about the implications of putting into practice a requirement to check the immigration status of anyone they stop, whom they suspect is in the country illegally. This was the most controversial aspect of the state's immigration law, and was allowed to stand by the justices, even as they struck down other provisons. President Obama, who presided over the deportation of more undocumented immigrants in his first three years than his predecessor did in two terms, urged Arizona police not enforce the provision in a way that undermines civil rights. The S&P/Case Shiller index of single-family home prices in 20 metropolitan areas was up 0.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis in April, the third month in a row the index has risen.
The Obama administration has launched three new ads branding Romney as "outsourcer in chief". The ads–which will be broadcast on televisions in Ohio, Virginia and Iowa–says "Romney's companies were pioneers at shipping US jobs overseas. Does Virginia really want an outsourcer-in-chief in the White House?" Just three out of the 20 cities in the index saw price declines in April and prices were down 1.9% overall compared with 2011 – an improvement on earlier this year but still hampered by weak demand.
The Obama administration is "disappointed" with the Supreme Court for striking down Montana's century-old law limiting the political spending of corporations. "We are disappointed that the Supreme Court did not take the opportunity presented by the Montana case to revisit its decision in Citizens United...In the aftermath of the Citizens United decision, we have seen unprecedented amounts of campaign spending, often by groups that won't disclose their donors," White House spokesman Eric Schultz said in a statement. 10.30am: Elsewhere in the US economy, the biggest market reaction has been to the latest Conference Board consumer confidence figures, which show sentiment falling for the fourth month in a row.
Pennsylvania's GOP House majority leader, Mike Turzai, is making headlines for comments he made regarding the state's strict new voter ID law. PoliticsPA.com reports that, while speaking at a Republican State Committee this weekend, Turzai said, "Pro-Second Amendment? The Castle Doctrine, it's done. First pro-life legislation – abortion facility regulations – in 22 years, done. Voter ID, which is going to allow Governor Romney to win the state of Pennsylvania, done." Democrats criticsed Turzai for pursuing a "partisan agenda". That means "there will be little change in the pace of economic activity in the near-term," according to a statement from Conference Board.
On labour market expectations, the survey's "jobs hard to get" category increased to 41.5% from 40.9% the month before, while "jobs plentiful" rose slightly to 7.8% from 7.5%.
10.18am: A quick look at the OECD economic forecasts for the US suggests little difference to the latest set of forecasts from the Federal Reserve, although the OECD estimates tend to be at the more optimistic end of the Fed's ranges.
For example, the Fed's "central tendency" for the US GDP ranges from 1.9% to 2.4% in 2012, while the OECD forecasts growth of 2.4% this year, right at the high end of the Fed forecast. In 2013, the OECD expects growth of 2.6%, compared with the Fed's range of 2.2%-2.8%.
In its breakdown of demand components, the OECD sees a slightly better outcome for government spending – for reasons that aren't entirely clear – balanced by slightly lower household spending.
On the big numbers of inflation and unemployment, the OECD's stronger growth is reflected in higher inflation of 2.3% (higher energy costs) and 1.9% in 2013, compared with the Fed's range of 1.5% to 2% next year.
The OECD forecasts unemployment falling from 8.1% by the end of this year to 7.6% at the end of 2013 – again more optimistic than the Fed's 7.5% to 8% range.
In summary, a slightly rosier picture but one very much in line with recent forecasts and so is unlikely to attract much attention on those grounds. And the unemployment figures in particular are not ones that offers enough for the White House start popping champagne corks.
10am: The OECD is about to release a report on the US economy. We'll have full details shortly. Meanwhile here's a summary of today's poltical developments from Ryan Devereaux.
• The fallout from yesterday's supreme court rulings continues. Police in Arizona have expressed concern about the implications of putting into practice a requirement to check the immigration status of anyone they stop, whom they suspect is in the country illegally. This was the most controversial aspect of the state's immigration law, and was allowed to stand by the justices, even as they struck down other provisons. President Obama, who presided over the deportation of more undocumented immigrants in his first three years than his predecessor did in two terms, urged Arizona police not enforce the provision in a way that undermines civil rights.
• The Obama administration has launched three new ads branding Romney as "outsourcer in chief". The ads–which will be broadcast on televisions in Ohio, Virginia and Iowa–says "Romney's companies were pioneers at shipping US jobs overseas. Does Virginia really want an outsourcer-in-chief in the White House?"
• The Obama administration is "disappointed" with the Supreme Court for striking down Montana's century-old law limiting the political spending of corporations. "We are disappointed that the Supreme Court did not take the opportunity presented by the Montana case to revisit its decision in Citizens United...In the aftermath of the Citizens United decision, we have seen unprecedented amounts of campaign spending, often by groups that won't disclose their donors," White House spokesman Eric Schultz said in a statement.
• Pennsylvania's GOP House majority leader, Mike Turzai, is making headlines for comments he made regarding the state's strict new voter ID law. PoliticsPA.com reports that, while speaking at a Republican State Committee this weekend, Turzai said, "Pro-Second Amendment? The Castle Doctrine, it's done. First pro-life legislation – abortion facility regulations – in 22 years, done. Voter ID, which is going to allow Governor Romney to win the state of Pennsylvania, done." Democrats criticsed Turzai for pursuing a "partisan agenda".