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| OECD releases report on US economy – live coverage | OECD releases report on US economy – live coverage |
| (40 minutes later) | |
| 12.15pm: Joe Biden is pulling out all the stops in Waterloo, Iowa this morning, lashing Mitt Romney's business and financial record. From the vice president's prepared text: | |
| Romney called the President 'out of touch' for encouraging young people – you – to try to get manufacturing jobs. | |
| Out of touch? | |
| A prospective president with a Swiss bank account and a retirement account in the Cayman Islands. Anyone here have a Swiss bank account? Did you ever think the nominee of a major political party running for president would have a Swiss bank account? Talk about out of touch. | |
| 12.05pm: A novel fundraising pitch arrives from Barack Obama via email to his supporters today, with a striking top line: "I will be the first president in modern history to be outspent in his re-election campaign, if things continue as they have so far." | |
| The email continues: | |
| I'm not just talking about the super PACs and anonymous outside groups – I'm talking about the Romney campaign itself. Those outside groups just add even more to the underlying problem. | |
| The Romney campaign raises more than we do, and the math isn't hard to understand: Through the primaries, we raised almost three-quarters of our money from donors giving less than $1,000, while Mitt Romney's campaign raised more than three-quarters of its money from individuals giving $1,000 or more. | |
| And, again, that's not including the massive outside spending by super PACs and front groups funneling up to an additional billion dollars into ads trashing me, you, and everything we believe in. | |
| We can be outspent and still win – but we can't be outspent 10 to 1 and still win. | |
| There follows an invitation to donate as little as $3 to the Obama campaign and go in a draw to win a "grassroots dinner" with himself and Michelle Obama. | |
| 11.50am: Vice president Joe Biden gets in a zinger aimed at Mitt Romney's record as an out-sourcing off-shorer of jobs: | |
| Biden in Iowa today: "Give Mitt Romney credit:He is a job creator.In Singapore.And China.And India." | |
| That was in Waterloo, Iowa, this morning. | |
| 11.37am: The fallout from yesterday's supreme court ruling on Arizona's controversial immigration law continues – and what do the Republican party's two Hispanic governors of western states think? | |
| Interestingly, both Brian Sandoval of Nevada and Susana Martinez of New Mexico both rejected Arizona's approach in their own states. | |
| Sandoval's statement: | |
| While I have always supported Arizona's tenth amendment right to enact laws to address its unique concerns with public safety and have said all along the law is not needed in Nevada, I understand and respect the Supreme Court's application of the Supremacy Clause. This decision makes it clear that the President and Congress must come together and reform our immigration system. | |
| Martinez's statement: | |
| I have always maintained that immigration reform should take place at the federal level, and that is consistent with the Supreme Court ruling today. While I never supported an Arizona-style law in New Mexico, I understand the frustration felt by Arizonans, given the federal government's failure to address the immigration issue. | |
| In New Mexico, we have tackled public-safety issues relating to border security in responsible ways, such as ending the sanctuary state policy that prevented state police from checking the immigration status of those arrested for crimes, and seeking to repeal the law that gives driver's licenses to illegal immigrants. | |
| 11.15am: The OECD economic survey does contain some qualified backing for the Affordable Care Act – aka Obamacare – for its help in containing government healthcare spending. | 11.15am: The OECD economic survey does contain some qualified backing for the Affordable Care Act – aka Obamacare – for its help in containing government healthcare spending. |
| It suggests upping the Medicare entitlement age upwards – but warns that an Obamacare-style measure will be needed to cover the gap between employment-provided health insurance: | It suggests upping the Medicare entitlement age upwards – but warns that an Obamacare-style measure will be needed to cover the gap between employment-provided health insurance: |
| In the medium to long term, the greatest challenge to fiscal sustainability comes from the federal health-care programmes. The CBO currently projects that federal health spending will grow by almost 2 percentage points of GDP over the next decade from this year's level of 5.5% of GDP, with further significant increases in prospect beyond then. The key driver over the coming decade is population ageing; beyond that, it is growth in expenditure per enrolee. The Affordable Care Act offers hope that cost growth can be permanently reduced, although there is much uncertainty about how effective it will be. | In the medium to long term, the greatest challenge to fiscal sustainability comes from the federal health-care programmes. The CBO currently projects that federal health spending will grow by almost 2 percentage points of GDP over the next decade from this year's level of 5.5% of GDP, with further significant increases in prospect beyond then. The key driver over the coming decade is population ageing; beyond that, it is growth in expenditure per enrolee. The Affordable Care Act offers hope that cost growth can be permanently reduced, although there is much uncertainty about how effective it will be. |
| The Medicare Trustees estimate that reforms foreseen in the Act will reduce annual average growth in Medicare spending per enrolee by 1.3% over the coming decade. If this proves not to be possible, policymakers will need to take further measures. One possibility in this regard would be to align the age of entitlement to Medicare benefits to the age of entitlement to social security benefits, although mechanisms (such as those in the Affordable Care Act) would need to be available to provide access to affordable health insurance for persons who are retired, and no longer covered by employment-based insurance, but not yet old enough to be eligible for Medicare. | The Medicare Trustees estimate that reforms foreseen in the Act will reduce annual average growth in Medicare spending per enrolee by 1.3% over the coming decade. If this proves not to be possible, policymakers will need to take further measures. One possibility in this regard would be to align the age of entitlement to Medicare benefits to the age of entitlement to social security benefits, although mechanisms (such as those in the Affordable Care Act) would need to be available to provide access to affordable health insurance for persons who are retired, and no longer covered by employment-based insurance, but not yet old enough to be eligible for Medicare. |
| 11am: The OECD says the US "should do more to foster innovation and provide more equitable access to high-quality education in order to maintain its status as the world's most vibrant and productive economy," in its latest economic survey. | 11am: The OECD says the US "should do more to foster innovation and provide more equitable access to high-quality education in order to maintain its status as the world's most vibrant and productive economy," in its latest economic survey. |
| The OECD argues that the United States is losing its cutting edge in innovation, saying "US companies are no longer more likely to innovate than companies in other OECD countries" and blames weakening education policies: | The OECD argues that the United States is losing its cutting edge in innovation, saying "US companies are no longer more likely to innovate than companies in other OECD countries" and blames weakening education policies: |
| Particularly worrying is the performance in education, which is essential to provide workers with the skills necessary to become more productive and to adapt to technological change. Attainment in tertiary education stagnated over the past three decades while it grew significantly in almost every other OECD country. Today, 22 out of 30 OECD countries have more graduates in science and engineering among the 25 to 34 year old workers than the United States. | Particularly worrying is the performance in education, which is essential to provide workers with the skills necessary to become more productive and to adapt to technological change. Attainment in tertiary education stagnated over the past three decades while it grew significantly in almost every other OECD country. Today, 22 out of 30 OECD countries have more graduates in science and engineering among the 25 to 34 year old workers than the United States. |
| "The United States is still one of the most innovative economies in the world but competition is growing and we need better policies to keep the US at the frontiers of innovation", said OECD Deputy Secretary-General Richard Boucher. | "The United States is still one of the most innovative economies in the world but competition is growing and we need better policies to keep the US at the frontiers of innovation", said OECD Deputy Secretary-General Richard Boucher. |
| 10.48am: Some actual good economic news: house prices are continuing their recovery nationally, something that will eventually lift a big burden off the US economy and households. | 10.48am: Some actual good economic news: house prices are continuing their recovery nationally, something that will eventually lift a big burden off the US economy and households. |
| The S&P/Case Shiller index of single-family home prices in 20 metropolitan areas was up 0.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis in April, the third month in a row the index has risen. | The S&P/Case Shiller index of single-family home prices in 20 metropolitan areas was up 0.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis in April, the third month in a row the index has risen. |
| Just three out of the 20 cities in the index saw price declines in April and prices were down 1.9% overall compared with 2011 – an improvement on earlier this year but still hampered by weak demand. | Just three out of the 20 cities in the index saw price declines in April and prices were down 1.9% overall compared with 2011 – an improvement on earlier this year but still hampered by weak demand. |
| 10.30am: Elsewhere in the US economy, the biggest market reaction has been to the latest Conference Board consumer confidence figures, which show sentiment falling for the fourth month in a row. | 10.30am: Elsewhere in the US economy, the biggest market reaction has been to the latest Conference Board consumer confidence figures, which show sentiment falling for the fourth month in a row. |
| That means "there will be little change in the pace of economic activity in the near-term," according to a statement from Conference Board. | That means "there will be little change in the pace of economic activity in the near-term," according to a statement from Conference Board. |
| On labour market expectations, the survey's "jobs hard to get" category increased to 41.5% from 40.9% the month before, while "jobs plentiful" rose slightly to 7.8% from 7.5%. | On labour market expectations, the survey's "jobs hard to get" category increased to 41.5% from 40.9% the month before, while "jobs plentiful" rose slightly to 7.8% from 7.5%. |
| 10.18am: A quick look at the OECD economic forecasts for the US suggests little difference to the latest set of forecasts from the Federal Reserve, although the OECD estimates tend to be at the more optimistic end of the Fed's ranges. | 10.18am: A quick look at the OECD economic forecasts for the US suggests little difference to the latest set of forecasts from the Federal Reserve, although the OECD estimates tend to be at the more optimistic end of the Fed's ranges. |
| For example, the Fed's "central tendency" for the US GDP ranges from 1.9% to 2.4% in 2012, while the OECD forecasts growth of 2.4% this year, right at the high end of the Fed forecast. In 2013, the OECD expects growth of 2.6%, compared with the Fed's range of 2.2%-2.8%. | For example, the Fed's "central tendency" for the US GDP ranges from 1.9% to 2.4% in 2012, while the OECD forecasts growth of 2.4% this year, right at the high end of the Fed forecast. In 2013, the OECD expects growth of 2.6%, compared with the Fed's range of 2.2%-2.8%. |
| In its breakdown of demand components, the OECD sees a slightly better outcome for government spending – for reasons that aren't entirely clear – balanced by slightly lower household spending. | In its breakdown of demand components, the OECD sees a slightly better outcome for government spending – for reasons that aren't entirely clear – balanced by slightly lower household spending. |
| On the big numbers of inflation and unemployment, the OECD's stronger growth is reflected in higher inflation of 2.3% (higher energy costs) and 1.9% in 2013, compared with the Fed's range of 1.5% to 2% next year. | On the big numbers of inflation and unemployment, the OECD's stronger growth is reflected in higher inflation of 2.3% (higher energy costs) and 1.9% in 2013, compared with the Fed's range of 1.5% to 2% next year. |
| The OECD forecasts unemployment falling from 8.1% by the end of this year to 7.6% at the end of 2013 – again more optimistic than the Fed's 7.5% to 8% range. | The OECD forecasts unemployment falling from 8.1% by the end of this year to 7.6% at the end of 2013 – again more optimistic than the Fed's 7.5% to 8% range. |
| In summary, a slightly rosier picture but one very much in line with recent forecasts and so is unlikely to attract much attention on those grounds. And the unemployment figures in particular are not ones that offers enough for the White House start popping champagne corks. | In summary, a slightly rosier picture but one very much in line with recent forecasts and so is unlikely to attract much attention on those grounds. And the unemployment figures in particular are not ones that offers enough for the White House start popping champagne corks. |
| 10am: The OECD is about to release a report on the US economy. We'll have full details shortly. Meanwhile here's a summary of today's poltical developments from Ryan Devereaux. | 10am: The OECD is about to release a report on the US economy. We'll have full details shortly. Meanwhile here's a summary of today's poltical developments from Ryan Devereaux. |
| • The fallout from yesterday's supreme court rulings continues. Police in Arizona have expressed concern about the implications of putting into practice a requirement to check the immigration status of anyone they stop, whom they suspect is in the country illegally. This was the most controversial aspect of the state's immigration law, and was allowed to stand by the justices, even as they struck down other provisons. President Obama, who presided over the deportation of more undocumented immigrants in his first three years than his predecessor did in two terms, urged Arizona police not enforce the provision in a way that undermines civil rights. | • The fallout from yesterday's supreme court rulings continues. Police in Arizona have expressed concern about the implications of putting into practice a requirement to check the immigration status of anyone they stop, whom they suspect is in the country illegally. This was the most controversial aspect of the state's immigration law, and was allowed to stand by the justices, even as they struck down other provisons. President Obama, who presided over the deportation of more undocumented immigrants in his first three years than his predecessor did in two terms, urged Arizona police not enforce the provision in a way that undermines civil rights. |
| • The Obama administration has launched three new ads branding Romney as "outsourcer in chief". The ads–which will be broadcast on televisions in Ohio, Virginia and Iowa–says "Romney's companies were pioneers at shipping US jobs overseas. Does Virginia really want an outsourcer-in-chief in the White House?" | • The Obama administration has launched three new ads branding Romney as "outsourcer in chief". The ads–which will be broadcast on televisions in Ohio, Virginia and Iowa–says "Romney's companies were pioneers at shipping US jobs overseas. Does Virginia really want an outsourcer-in-chief in the White House?" |
| • The Obama administration is "disappointed" with the Supreme Court for striking down Montana's century-old law limiting the political spending of corporations. "We are disappointed that the Supreme Court did not take the opportunity presented by the Montana case to revisit its decision in Citizens United...In the aftermath of the Citizens United decision, we have seen unprecedented amounts of campaign spending, often by groups that won't disclose their donors," White House spokesman Eric Schultz said in a statement. | • The Obama administration is "disappointed" with the Supreme Court for striking down Montana's century-old law limiting the political spending of corporations. "We are disappointed that the Supreme Court did not take the opportunity presented by the Montana case to revisit its decision in Citizens United...In the aftermath of the Citizens United decision, we have seen unprecedented amounts of campaign spending, often by groups that won't disclose their donors," White House spokesman Eric Schultz said in a statement. |
| • Pennsylvania's GOP House majority leader, Mike Turzai, is making headlines for comments he made regarding the state's strict new voter ID law. PoliticsPA.com reports that, while speaking at a Republican State Committee this weekend, Turzai said, "Pro-Second Amendment? The Castle Doctrine, it's done. First pro-life legislation – abortion facility regulations – in 22 years, done. Voter ID, which is going to allow Governor Romney to win the state of Pennsylvania, done." Democrats criticsed Turzai for pursuing a "partisan agenda". | • Pennsylvania's GOP House majority leader, Mike Turzai, is making headlines for comments he made regarding the state's strict new voter ID law. PoliticsPA.com reports that, while speaking at a Republican State Committee this weekend, Turzai said, "Pro-Second Amendment? The Castle Doctrine, it's done. First pro-life legislation – abortion facility regulations – in 22 years, done. Voter ID, which is going to allow Governor Romney to win the state of Pennsylvania, done." Democrats criticsed Turzai for pursuing a "partisan agenda". |